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Sox Therapy
— Where Thinking Red Sox Fans Obsess about the Sox

Saturday, May 13, 2006

A New Man(ny)?

What is the deal with Manny this year? His line,  .305 .447 .500 is very nice, but it is extremely unlike his hitting in the past. He hasn’t seen anything close to that .195 ISO since 1997, and it is a reflection of his huge drop in both 2bs and HRs. Meanwhile, both is K and BB rates are off the charts—he’s on pace for 140+ of each. The walks may be partially a function of his spot in the lineup, but that wouldn’t explain the strikeouts.

Watching Manny, I haven’t seen much change in Manny’s ...

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Darren Posted: May 13, 2006 at 02:51 PM | 30 comment(s)
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Thursday, May 11, 2006

Weekly Minor League Thread: Blah

There isn’t much good news here. In fact, it’s going pretty horribly. Pedroia’s still not hitting, Lowrie and Ellsbury are both hurt, Lester still hasn’t done much. On a brighter note, Buchholz has come off the DL and is pitching well and Bowdein is also looking good.

Darren Posted: May 11, 2006 at 09:54 AM | 62 comment(s)
  Related News: red sox


Monday, May 08, 2006

Leveraging Assets

Apparently Fangraphs is now publising contstantly updated Leverage Index for hitters, pitchers, and teams. It’s great stuff and is certainly relevant to our discussion of the Red Sox bullpen. Here’s the Red Sox Team Page. The three biggies to look at here are in the pen:

Papelbon: 1.59
Timlin: 1.84
Foulke: .96

(1.00 is neutral).

That looks to me like decent deployment of the pen, when you consider that Timlin was the most trusted arm from last year and Foulke started the year with a bunch ...

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Darren Posted: May 08, 2006 at 11:04 PM | 33 comment(s)
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Waiting for the Yankees on a Rainy Day

Well, it’s rainy here in D.C. at least.

As we await tomorrow’s series in New York, is there any dissent to the plan to skip Clement and move up Wake? I have no problem with it, myself. More and more it seems that Clement is not going to be anything more than he has been, and what he has been is a slight disappointment.

Interesting to see Trot get so much PT against lefties of late. I wonder if Tito is trying to get him more comfortable for a start tomorrow against the Unit?

Haven’t seen any ...

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Toby Posted: May 08, 2006 at 04:44 PM | 27 comment(s)
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Friday, May 05, 2006

Bullpen Concerns

Can anyone explain to me why, with a 7-1 lead, Francona went to Keith Foulke tonight? Foulke isn’t the only overworked pitcher in the pen, but he’s the leading one. 162 g pace coming into the night: 

Foulke 84 g, 108 ip
Paps 90 g, 98 ip
Timlin 78 g, 68 ip

In the 5/3 game, Francona managed to use all three of these guys to pitch 3.1 ip. Tonight, the first guy he went to with a 7-1 lead was Foulke, which would seem to indicate that he thought the game was still in doubt. But then why go to ...

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Darren Posted: May 05, 2006 at 03:20 AM | 59 comment(s)
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Thursday, May 04, 2006

Poll: Globe’s Chris Snow is best Sox beat writer

Over at Boston Sports Media Watch, Bruce Allen has been running some polls about the Boston media. Bruce is away for a few weeks on a honeymoon—tip o’ the cap to him—but still manages to have the site updated regularly with good stuff.

Today he runs the results of his poll on which Sox beat writer is best. (link, you will have to scroll down a little.) The voters went with Chris Snow of the Globe as best. Then again, on the companion poll (which Sox beat writer is worst), the voters also went ...

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Toby Posted: May 04, 2006 at 06:22 PM | 26 comment(s)
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Wednesday, May 03, 2006

Red Sox Sweep Yankees (and get Dougie back)

David Ortiz delivers a key homer in each game and Paps closed ‘em all out. Doesn’t get any better than this.

I have to say, I’m pretty surprised that people are saying that the Red Sox got some kind of steal on the Mirabelli deal. ZIPS has Mirabelli pegged for .228 .315 .386 (SD) in 06 and Bard for .260 .323 .393 (CLEV). Both guys have good defensive reputations, but Bard is seven years younger, cheaper, and under control longer.

From the Padres perspective, a straight up trade of these two ...

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Darren Posted: May 03, 2006 at 12:10 AM | 6 comment(s)
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Tuesday, May 02, 2006

Around The Farm - Sox minor league thread for the week of May 1st

Jon Lester has an updated diary entry for Baseball America - he thinks the stats are deceiving and has pitched pretty good, but has been unlucky. He says his curveball is coming around, and he hates pitch counts.  ARTICLE

For the Paw Sox - Choi is hitting well, I’ve gotten mixed reports on his leather.  AAA veteran Ron Calloway has also looked good with the stick.  Petunia, isn’t hitting for any power.  Jeff Bailey has one strange line 224/340/500. Both Stern and Machado, the only prospecty ...

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Mister High Standards Posted: May 02, 2006 at 05:24 PM | 28 comment(s)
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Sunday, April 30, 2006

Youkilis is pretty so hard…

MCoA has asked that an ode to Youks be added to Sox Therapy, even though that chump struck out in the ninth today! Swing the bat, this isn’t lawyerball.

As MC noted in another thread, Youkilis seems to be doing an excellent job of tailoring his hitting style to the situation. He tends to be more likely to swing early in the count if there are runners on to be driven in. When the bases are empty, he works the count more. Despite his 2,146 Ks this year, Youk is hitting .299 .406 .414, and his ...

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Darren Posted: April 30, 2006 at 11:43 PM | 53 comment(s)
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Saturday, April 29, 2006

Revenge of Pythagoras

This team has really looked very bad for a while. After all my drooling over Beckett being Clemens-esque, maybe I was jumping the gun. He has very few Ks and a ton of HR this year. That’s not boding well. Schilling also worries me quite a bit because he just doesn’t look all that dominant to me. That’s more subjective. Clement is a better pitcher than he’s shown and I’m just not worried about him… the way I am about Wake/Bard. Yuck.

In the pen, we should keep an eye on Papelbon’s workload. ...

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Darren Posted: April 29, 2006 at 02:55 AM | 39 comment(s)
  Related News: red sox, sabermetrics


Wednesday, April 26, 2006

Weekly Minor League Thread: This and that

Just a couple of notes, feel free to add anything that you’d like.

—Since starting the season on a tear, Corsaletti, Ellsbury, and especially Lowrie have come crashing back to earth. Hard. None of them have particularly good numbers right now. I’m beginning to think they won’t all be ready to start in teh Majors next year.

—The Sox signed 30-year-old Corky Miller and placed him in Pawtucket, where Kent Huckaby just went on the DL. This is good depth where the Sox really need it. Corky has ...

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Darren Posted: April 26, 2006 at 01:10 AM | 30 comment(s)
  Related News: minor leagues, red sox


Monday, April 24, 2006

The Snow Question

It seems pretty clear that JT Snow was signed for two purposes. First, he’s an adequate player who adds depth at 1B, and (via Youkilis shifting over) at 3B as well. This was crucial because the Sox have very little in the way of ML-ready 1B in the minors. Second, he’s considered a good defender, and therefore makes a good defensive replacement late in games, especially important because Youks is new at the position.

What the Red Sox couldn’t have know this offseason is that both of these ...

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Darren Posted: April 24, 2006 at 11:50 PM | 68 comment(s)
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Saturday, April 22, 2006

Manny D is back

No, this is not about Manny’s defense. It’s about the other Manny, Delcarmen.

He’s up, Van Buren is down.

Manny D has 8 IP at Pawtucket, 0 R, 4 H, 2 BB, 8 K.

Sorry I’ve been hors de combat around here lately. Work, kids, trying to edit the final page proofs for my book. I’ll be back soon to try to dispel the despair that’s soon to sink in around here as Pythagoras starts to pull down the Sox. Well, whatever despair OleP can’t dispel on his own.

Jim wants us (Sox Therapy and other blogs on ...

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Toby Posted: April 22, 2006 at 09:35 PM | 43 comment(s)
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Kevin Youkilis so far…

Here’s a piece about Youkilis’s new role as a full time player.  I have to say I’m pretty darn happy with the way he’s playing so far. He’s currently 2nd in MLB in Pitches per PA, and is hitting with power and getting on base.

I wonder the Red Sox will consider keeping him at the top of the order when Coco comes back.

Darren Posted: April 22, 2006 at 03:57 PM | 56 comment(s)
  Related News: red sox


Redsox.com: Notes: Papelbon staying in ‘pen

Can’t seem to make the title a link right now for some reason, so Here’s the link.

Good move. Paps is the only reliable reliever right now and he’s excellent at it. I’m not convinced he’d be a much better starter than Dinardo right now, though he might be.

As for Foulke, I don’t like that Tito is letting him finish games despite his not being the closer. The whole point of the games-finished clause in his contract is to reward him for being both healthy and effective enough to close games. ...

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Darren Posted: April 22, 2006 at 02:09 AM | 28 comment(s)
  Related News: red sox


Tuesday, April 18, 2006

Sox Prospects: Dustin Pedroia

Pedroia’s back and there’s a reason to watch Pawtucket again! He went 1-5 in his return last night.

Consider this your weekly minor league thread.

Darren Posted: April 18, 2006 at 10:47 PM | 34 comment(s)
  Related News: red sox


Please excuse the mess

I’m working on some updates including work on an enhanced news system and the addition of forums to the site. The work should only take a few days.

Please excuse the mess.

Jim Furtado Posted: April 18, 2006 at 02:10 PM | 13 comment(s)
  Related News: red sox


Wednesday, April 12, 2006

Nixon falls down and goes boom

Nixon looked pretty goofy but then again, he didn’t convert any outs into HRs, so he’s got that going for him. Early word is that he was pulled as a precaution. Let’s hope so, because Mr. Swingsateverything is not looking to hot. Knowing Nixon’s luck and history, this is a real bummer.

Update (from NTN): Nixon out 5-7 days

So we’ll see him in September.

Darren Posted: April 12, 2006 at 12:32 AM | 77 comment(s)
  Related News: red sox


Saturday, April 01, 2006

Boston Globe: Five articles on Sox system

Thanks to TempleUSox.

Evolution in evaluation of prospects

During the season, Sox minor league managers, all given laptops, are required to file reports after each game, which keep the home office apprised not only of how prospects are doing, but allows space for information on top players on other clubs. The Sox also rely heavily on sabermetric measures, statistics that go far beyond the usual standard batting average and earned run average. Things such as equivalency average and VORP (value ...

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Toby Posted: April 01, 2006 at 01:53 AM | 26 comment(s)
  Related News: red sox


Friday, March 24, 2006

Red Sox claim Choi

This news comes via tfbg, who I assume read it on SOSH, where they heard it on WEEI and ESPNNEWS. Sure are a lot of 1b/3b types on this team, but Choi is an excellent addition.

Darren Posted: March 24, 2006 at 10:10 PM | 400 comment(s)
  Related News: red sox


Tuesday, March 21, 2006

Red Sox get Wily Mo

Forgive me if this is stupid and redundant. Everyone in the house is sick and I’m probably delirious. So I thought it might be okay to post a Wily Mo thread in Sox Therapy.

Who wants to create the over/under for the cash involved. I’d say it’s $5 mil, because that’s just enough to make Arroyo an excellent bargain and Wily Mo a bit pricey. For the Red Sox, Wily Mo is kind of like the giant idol that Burns gives to Homer Simpson as a reward. He’s a very valuable thing but he may end up ...

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Darren Posted: March 21, 2006 at 04:46 AM | 51 comment(s)
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Monday, February 20, 2006

Red Sox NewsBeat

I could use some help. I’m working on a long-discussed project&em;the creation of team news pages. The Sox team page will be the prototype page. I’m in the process of assembling all the Red Sox news-related links I can. If you have an interesting or useful site, blog, or information link, please post it within this thread.

Thanks in advance.

Edit: By the way, when the news pages are activated, all site members will have the ability to directly submit articles into the team pages. This way, ...

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Jim Furtado Posted: February 20, 2006 at 12:48 PM | 26 comment(s)
  Related News: red sox, site news


Monday, February 06, 2006

Babe Ruth’s Piano (or not)

actually, I have no update on Babe Ruth’s piano to link to at all.

I grew up in Sudbury, Mass., though, so I have a longstanding interest in Ruth, the piano, and the Sox. I thought I would dig around this morning to see if I could find any update on the hunt for the piano. I couldn’t find anything.

On the other hand, I did come across a story that I had somehow missed from September 2004. Did you know that a kid who grew up in the Babe’s Sudbury house was hit in the face by a Manny Ramirez ...

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Toby Posted: February 06, 2006 at 03:27 PM | 1 comment(s)
  Related News: red sox


Friday, December 30, 2005

Manny’ Defense

This started out as a study in which I questioned the wisdom of regressing Manny’s defense toward the mean, but after exchanging emails with MGL, I discovered that I had misunderstood his regression methods. I had thought that in projecting Manny’s future performance (or assessing his true talent level, as MGL calls it), he would include an element of league average OF. But that is not the case…

Darren Posted: December 30, 2005 at 04:18 PM | 116 comment(s)
  Related News: red sox, sabermetrics


Monday, December 19, 2005

Love me, non-Tender

Consider this a place to discuss non-tenders that involve or affect the Red Sox. I don’t see any Boston player as an obvious candidate to be cut loose, but there’s been some talk that it might be Bradford. There has also been discussion of Craig Wilson, Choi, and others as possible targets if their current teams let them walk.

Darren Posted: December 19, 2005 at 03:44 AM | 24 comment(s)
  Related News: red sox


Marte Par-tay

This is something that I’ve been kicking around in my head a bit. The Red Sox have a big logjam at 3B, but Youks doesn’t have much trade value and Lowell apparently has even less. Marte appears ready for the bigs. And the Red Sox have holes to fill at 1B, SS, and CF at least.

So, considering these facts, who would you be willing to trade Marte for? Although it’s easy to just say “no one,” for me, it’s a lot easier (emotionally) to consider than dealing a Lester or a Pedroia who we’ve been ...

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Darren Posted: December 19, 2005 at 03:19 AM | 50 comment(s)
  Related News: red sox


Sunday, December 11, 2005

A plethora of pitching in Boston

I’m not saying that the Red Sox have too much quality pitching, but they currently seem to have too many pitchers. Here’s a rundown:

Starters:

Schilling
Beckett
Clement
Wells
Wakefield
Arroyo
Papelbon

Relievers:
Foulke
Timilin
Mota
Bradford
Hansen
Delcarmen
Van Buren
Dinardo

Ready soon(?):
Alvarez
Lester
Meredith
E Martinez


Moving Wells to another team will bring us down to 6 SP, but there’s still a lot to figure out there. Does Arroyo get moved to swingman, pushing Dinardo into a ...

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Darren Posted: December 11, 2005 at 08:11 PM | 57 comment(s)
  Related News: red sox


Saturday, December 10, 2005

Red Sox Minor League Park Factors

Culled from Transaction Oracle:


Team                 R       H       2B       HR      BB      SO

Pawtucket         1.05   1.04   0.91    1.59    1.10    1.15
Portland (AA)    1.08   0.97   0.88    1.18    1.01    1.03 
Wilmington        0.94   0.95   0.91    0.75    0.93    0.99 
Greenville         1.07   1.07   1.00    1.07    1.07    1.07 
Lowell               1.04   1.02   1.08    1.10    1.10    1.04 
Fort Myers         0.97   1.01   1.04    0.90    0.98    1.14 

Also, before 05, ...
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Darren Posted: December 10, 2005 at 10:51 PM | 26 comment(s)
  Related News: minor leagues, red sox


Friday, December 09, 2005

Red Sox rule 5 comings and goings

From MLB transactions: Selected RHP Jamie Vermilyea in the Major League phase of the Rule 5 Draft; Selected RHP Victor Ramos, RHP Jason Richardson, and INF David Bacani in the Minor League phase. They lost no one in the ML phase, but lost Henry Cabrera (rhp) and Vince Harrison (3b) in the MiL phase.

Here’s the BA Breakdown

Vermilia had a GB/FB over 2.0 last year and has generally had awesome HR rates. Looks like a big gb guy. I hope to hell he doesn’t stick with the club and take up a spot. I ...

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Darren Posted: December 09, 2005 at 02:56 PM | 7 comment(s)
  Related News: red sox


Friday, December 02, 2005

Red Sox Rule 5 Thread

According to the ‘Notes in a Minor Key’ thread, these are the guys we stand to possibly lose:

Chad Spann Red Sox 3B
Charlie Zink Red Sox RHP
Ian Bladergroen Red Sox 1B
Jose Vaquedano Red Sox RHP

If I were the Mets or Braves, I’d take one of the Red Sox pitchers, start him each of the first 5 ST games, then send him back.

(Also, I’ve banned Nate from advocating that we Rule 5 Steven Andrade. If you see him doing it, smack him one. :) )

Darren Posted: December 02, 2005 at 02:08 AM | 14 comment(s)
  Related News: red sox


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