BBTF's Sox Therapy Discussion :: 2013 ZIPS Projections for the Red Sox Are Up

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Monday, February 11, 2013

2013 ZIPS Projections for the Red Sox Are Up

Finally, some fake baseball to talk about.

Darren Posted: February 11, 2013 at 03:34 PM | 38 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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1. villageidiom Posted: February 11, 2013 at 03:56 PM (#4367190)

John Lackey and Aaron Cook have a common #1 comp: Aaron Sele.

Nooooooooooooooooooo!

2. Darren

Posted: February 11, 2013 at 03:57 PM (#4367196)

I think for Cook it's all based on the first name.

3. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: February 11, 2013 at 04:05 PM (#4367208)

Yay! Random thoughts;

Jackie Bradley .249/.329/.367 is a pretty nice player already. Every time I read something about this kid I get more excited. It's probably stupid to think he's a better bet than Bogaerts but I've been stupid before and I'll be stupid again. He probably doesn't have the ceiling of Bogaerts but I think he is much more of a surefire MLB regular.

If Jose Iglesias can really post a .298 OBP he should probably be our everyday shortstop. The bar is low but again, his defense is what it is.

I think Ellsbury's .284/.333/.445/2.5 WAR has no chance of being right. I don't know if it's low or high but I don't see him being so ordinary.

The Middlebrooks comp of Joe Crede seems very reasonable.

It's nice to know the computer is confident in Jon Lester.

4. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: February 11, 2013 at 04:05 PM (#4367209)

Love the exclamation point for Brock Holt!

Bryce Brentz top comps: Plaxico Burress, this guy.

5. Dan Posted: February 11, 2013 at 06:34 PM (#4367317)

ZiPS seems pretty down on Andrew Bailey.

6. Darren

Posted: February 11, 2013 at 06:44 PM (#4367326)

Hanrahan too. And Tazawa. At least it like Uehara.

7. tfbg9 Posted: February 11, 2013 at 07:01 PM (#4367337)

Finally, some fake baseball to talk about.

I laughed.
All 4 of our "good" hitters are injury ? guys. Yikes. Weird offseason.

8. andrewberg Posted: February 11, 2013 at 07:50 PM (#4367374)

BROCK HOLT!

\O/
l
/ \

9. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: February 11, 2013 at 07:53 PM (#4367375)

Tazawa has extremely few IP in recent seasons, and he was quite terrible when he was pitching with a busted elbow ligament. ZiPS' projection for him is going to be like 70% regression to the mean, 30% performance record, and much of that performance record is not good at all.

I'm annoyed that Fangraphs is only publishing top comps rather than top three comps. (Are they going to make the spreadsheet available like Dan used to here?) But my favorite comp, just for narrative's sake, is John Valentin for Dustin Pedroia. Obviously no one wants Pedroia to face age and injury decline like Valentin did, but I think it's a good reminder of how frickin' great John Valentin was for a short time in the 90s. He's actually a pretty similar player in terms of the arrangement of his production. Hopefully Dustin's back is not similar.

10. Darren

Posted: February 11, 2013 at 08:21 PM (#4367390)

You know who ZIPS loves? It loves it some Big Papi. He's projected for 3.4 WAR in 418 PA, thanks to a .294 .388 .558. Top Comp: McCovey (I know, I know)! 500 HR, here we come!

Good point about Valentin--a really valuable and versatile player who took a big nosedive. 8+ WAR in 95, pushed aside by Nomar in 97, no wonder he was pissed.

11. ShoeGrit Posted: February 11, 2013 at 09:32 PM (#4367434)

If the Red Sox bullpen is good....top 1/3 in the AL, and Drew recovers all of his range at Shortstop, this team is good enough to win the division. Solid lineup, and league average starting pitching, (if backed up by the infield defense,...OF Defense will surely be good).

12. philly Posted: February 11, 2013 at 11:16 PM (#4367540)

(Are they going to make the spreadsheet available like Dan used to here?)

Yes, I think he mentioned it would be published at the end of the week.

13. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: February 11, 2013 at 11:31 PM (#4367553)

this team is good enough to win the division

If 81 wins will do it, the they are so there.

14. SoSH U at work Posted: February 12, 2013 at 12:34 AM (#4367582)

Obviously no one wants Pedroia to face age and injury decline like Valentin did, but I think it's a good reminder of how frickin' great John Valentin was for a short time in the 90s. He's actually a pretty similar player in terms of the arrangement of his production. Hopefully Dustin's back is not similar.

Did Valentin suffer from a bad back? I know back troubles are what sunk Naehring's career, but I don't recall that being an issue for John as well.

15. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: February 12, 2013 at 12:56 AM (#4367596)

If Jose Iglesias can really post a .298 OBP he should probably be our everyday shortstop. The bar is low but again, his defense is what it is.

I hate to distrust the computer, but I would be shocked if Iglesias could post a .298 OBP in full time in the majors.

16. ShoeGrit Posted: February 12, 2013 at 03:48 AM (#4367633)

If 81 wins will do it, the they are so there.

Well, they don't project to have a top 1/3 bullpen and Drew does not project to have the range he had two years ago before he broke his ankle. Hence the word "IF".

As they project now, 81 wins might be right....but if they get much better than expected bullpen work and infield defense, they can cover up a few warts in the starting rotation and the lineup is certainly good enough to compete.

You need to look at teams in spring and at least try to find their path to contention, unless there is seriously no hope at all of them. I don't think I would put the Red Sox in no hope territory.

17. esturminator_CT Posted: February 12, 2013 at 12:53 PM (#4367858)

The #1 comps are certainly interesting. Nice call AG#1F (#4). I think we'd all be quite happy if Koji Uehara turns out to be Dennis Eckersley. But I'm a little disappointed in the Tony Batista comp for Bogaerts. Can we assume the Bob Gibson comp for Josh Fields is the Brewers' Bob Gibson as opposed to the Cardinals' Bob Gibson? Apparently ZIPS is not expecting a comeback from Daniel Bard. Hasn't his career already well surpassed what was put together by Bart Miadich? I also have a tough time seeing Del Unser in Jacoby Ellsbury. I'm hoping for a rebound from Ells and certainly more than 57 runs if the Sox are going to be competitive.

18. Marc Sully's not booin'. He's Youkin'.

Posted: February 12, 2013 at 01:03 PM (#4367876)

When do the Fanboy projections go up? Always a favorite of mine.

Lackey's gotta be a CYA candidate.

19. tfbg9 Posted: February 12, 2013 at 01:45 PM (#4367939)

ZIPS aint exactly doin' backflips over Middlebrooks either.

Also, remember that Valentin's 8+ WAR were in an ~11% strike-shortened season, 1995. Huge season. And one of my favorite Sox years.

20. plim Posted: February 12, 2013 at 01:53 PM (#4367958)

Did Valentin suffer from a bad back? I know back troubles are what sunk Naehring's career, but I don't recall that being an issue for John as well.

I was going to say the same thing. I do recall an injury, but for me, the injury memory will always be him crumpling at third when he tore up his knee.

He was one of my favorites growing up. I never bought into the Scott Cooper/Tim Naehring hype. He could do it all, including give up his position for Nomar.

21. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: February 12, 2013 at 02:06 PM (#4367980)

Yeah, I must have mixed up Naehring and Valentin there. Valentin tore up his shoulder late in the '96 season, and while he was able to play through it for a little while, soon the injury cascade ended his prime run and eventually found its way to his knee. He blames constant cortisone use, related to the shoulder injury, for causing the run of injury problems that followed. The knee injury that ended his career in 2000 came about two years after other injuries had severely limited his utility. (Source: this enjoyable, honest interview in Living magazine from 2010).

When do the Fanboy projections go up?

22. tfbg9 Posted: February 12, 2013 at 02:27 PM (#4368000)

FORT MYERS, Fla. — Red Sox starter Clay Buchholz left the field after straining his right hamstring while covering first base during a spring training drill today.

Grr. He says its quite minor.

23. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: February 12, 2013 at 03:25 PM (#4368074)

Translation: His leg will be amputated tomorrow.

24. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: February 12, 2013 at 03:37 PM (#4368091)

Translation: His leg will be amputated tomorrow.

Just the one leg? Optimist!

25. chris p Posted: February 12, 2013 at 04:33 PM (#4368161)

The CFBPS numbers are in process. I have realized in renoobulating the system that a complex relationship of transference and counter-transference has developed between myself and the Freudian engine that powers the system. My own de-cathexion from the Red Sox last year and my ongoing ambivalence toward the club are affecting the ultimate projections in some indeterminate ways. But I will have numbers within the next few weeks.

i dug up some old source code and was trying to run some simulations, but it kept hanging when i tried to get 2013's projections. i thought it was a bug, but it looks like whoever wrote this code may have been superstitious or possibly clairvoyant ... while( year % 100 == 13 ) sleep(1000); i could try to remove that block, but i'm afraid that i might break somebody else's workflow ... so ... check back next year?

26. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: February 13, 2013 at 09:02 AM (#4368548)

Red Sox will soon be on the television - first ST game February 23rd.

27. philly Posted: February 13, 2013 at 09:16 AM (#4368555)

That had me look up the MLB Network schedule here:

MLB Spring TV schedule

First Sox games are Feb 27 and March 1 - both live at 7 pm which is nice for people who, you know, work during the day.

Oops, actually the first one is Sun the 24th at 2:30 am! Tape delay for the hardcore fan I guess.

28. villageidiom Posted: February 13, 2013 at 09:37 AM (#4368565)

I have realized in renoobulating the system that a complex relationship of transference and counter-transference has developed between myself and the Freudian engine that powers the system.

This is great, but only made better if said in the voice of Professor Frink.

29. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: February 13, 2013 at 09:40 AM (#4368568)

GLAVIN!

30. Marc Sully's not booin'. He's Youkin'.

Posted: February 13, 2013 at 09:41 AM (#4368570)

My own de-cathexion from the Red Sox last year and my ongoing ambivalence toward the club are affecting the ultimate projections in some indeterminate ways. But I will have numbers within the next few weeks.

If I can be of assistance, let me know. I am an unapologetic (blind?) 2013 Red Sox optimist.

31. TomH Posted: February 13, 2013 at 11:16 AM (#4368631)

wave at me on TV on the 23rd. Visiting my retired parents in Ft Myers, I'll be at the game.

32. ellsbury my heart at wounded knee Posted: February 13, 2013 at 12:23 PM (#4368718)

If I can be of assistance, let me know. I am an unapologetic (blind?) 2013 Red Sox optimist.

I kind of am too. Not in the sense that I think the Red Sox will do all that well in 2013, but I'm excited about the youth coming up and the potential that the Red Sox might not be terrible despite making that crippling trade last year. I just like baseball.

33. chris p Posted: February 13, 2013 at 04:42 PM (#4369006)

34. Darren

Posted: March 01, 2013 at 09:52 AM (#4378208)

Some very weird stuff going on with ZIPS. The WAR numbers listed on individual teams postings vary greatly from those on the player and team pages. Appleman explains: "The projection and player pages use our in-house WAR calculations, where the original reports included Dan Szymborski original WAR projections."

Unfortunately, in the case of the Red Sox, that generally means much worse projections in starting pitching but slightly better in a number of hitters.

Name/Sym WAR/fWAR

Lester/4.0/3.0
Dempster/2.4/1.9
Buchholz/2.8/1.5 (!)
Doubront/1.6/1.1
Webster/1.3/.0.9

Pedroia/4.8/5.2
Victorino/2.9/3.4
Ellsbury/2.5/2.9
Middlebrooks/1.8/2.2

The big ones here are Lester and Buchholz, who drop from an okay #1/#2 to an okay #2/#3. On the other hand, the 4 hitters mention make up almost half of the 3.7 wins that disappeared from those 5 starters.

35. Darren

Posted: March 01, 2013 at 09:54 AM (#4378209)

Then there's Mike Carp, who went from +0.3 on the Mariners to -0.3 on the Red Sox. It looks like his #s have barely changed, I wonder if they forgot to adjust for his new park.

36. Dan Posted: March 01, 2013 at 03:31 PM (#4378459)

What you're seeing is the effect of a WAR based on xFIP vs a WAR more like the one on BB-Ref that's based on runs allowed. Presumably, Szym's WAR is more similar to the WAR found on BB-Ref.

37. Darren

Posted: March 01, 2013 at 04:05 PM (#4378492)

I suspected the same, but what explains the difference in hitters, then?

38. SG Posted: March 01, 2013 at 04:06 PM (#4378493)

You are also probably seeing some park effect differences. If pitchers are worse and hitters are better, then Szym probably has a different park factor(less favorable to hitters) for Fenway than FG.

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Monday, February 11, 2013

2013 ZIPS Projections for the Red Sox Are Up

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