BBTF's Sox Therapy Discussion :: 24 Down, One to Go

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1. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: January 01, 2011 at 03:30 PM (#3721218)

Here's the link to the Globe report on Okajima. No contract details yet, but I'd guess it'll be in the range of $1-2M.

2. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: January 01, 2011 at 04:09 PM (#3721227)

Also, Bard doesn't actually have a massive reverse split at all, you moron. He has an even split, but it's driven significantly by BABIP, and he has a perfectly normal platoon split by FIP's measurement.

This suggests that Jenks might actually get spotted a bit more against lefties, and Bard a bit more against righties. If Bard can master that screwball action on the fastball that he showed occasionally last year, though, he'll be great against lefties. Of course, if Bard can master that screwball action, he'll be one of the five or so best relievers in baseball.

3. John DiFool2 Posted: January 01, 2011 at 04:28 PM (#3721235)

Papi’s RHB caddy

Just throwing this one out there, but how about Vladdy? When he's not spelling Papi vs. lefties, he can play a little in LF or RF. I know about his fielding embarrassments in the World Series, but he has been a solidly above average fielder for most of his career, so he can't have fallen that far, could he? On the other hand, his platoon splits have been pretty even, but more extreme over the last couple of years.

4. Darren

Posted: January 01, 2011 at 04:32 PM (#3721237)

Didn't they nontender Taylor Buchholz? Did they sign him later?

The thing that worries me about the pen is that it depends a great deal on Jenks and Wheeler, who both got surprisingly small contracts. I worry that there are some factors we don't know (especially with Jenks).

For the rotation, I think you're right that depth is a concern and I agree they should use Doubront as a starter (or maybe Miller). He, Wakefield, Bowden (I like him more than others, I know), and Tazawa would provide pretty decent depth for 6-9.

5. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: January 01, 2011 at 04:32 PM (#3721238)

Vlad Guerrero's CAIRO projection is 296/356/501. I'm sure he'll be offered a job as an everyday player somewhere, for good money.

6. Darren

Posted: January 01, 2011 at 04:33 PM (#3721240)

@3--I got the impression that his knees just finally gave out. I also don't think he's looking for a part-time job at the money the Sox can afford. Now, Matt Murton is a different story...

7. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: January 01, 2011 at 04:35 PM (#3721242)

Didn't they nontender Taylor Buchholz? Did they sign him later?

My memory was that they non-tendered both Buchholz and Miller in order to sign them to minor league deals...

According to the transaction list at mlbdepthcharts, Miller has signed a minor league deal, but Buchholz has not.

8. Jose Can You Seabiscuit Posted: January 01, 2011 at 04:36 PM (#3721243)

I would doubt Vladimir would have interest in such a role. He should be able to find a starting role somewhere. I'm going to shill for my binky Darnell, I just think he's a nice fit. He hits lefties, can play all three positions and has decent speed.

I don't get the optimism about Albers. Poor control, low K rate, but he throws hard? Big deal.

9. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: January 01, 2011 at 04:39 PM (#3721246)

Is there optimism about Albers? I assumed he was a cromulent last man in the pen, just like Atchison. (94 ERA+ last year for Albers, 97 for Atchison.)

As I've argued before, the RHB caddy for Papi should also be able to play first base, and man third in an emergency. Otherwise the Sox have only one backup infielder. I think Marcus Thames fits the bill just about perfectly.

10. Jose Can You Seabiscuit Posted: January 01, 2011 at 04:43 PM (#3721248)

Didn't mean to be quite as ###### as I sounded. I feel like I've read a higher number of pieces about the usefulness of Albers than I would have expected.

11. Dan Posted: January 01, 2011 at 04:57 PM (#3721265)

This made sense, I thought, given that Scott Downs, Brian Fuentes, and Frank Francisco were all available as free agents.

Frank Francisco is a RHP. Perhaps you meant Pedro Feliciano?

Honestly, given that the Red Sox will face the Yankees and their 50 switch-hitters 18 times a year, a guy like Jenks who can get lefty batters out as a righty makes a lot of sense.

12. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: January 01, 2011 at 05:01 PM (#3721271)

I appreciate the out you're offering me, but I have actually believed for several years that Frank Francisco was left-handed, and my listing of him in this piece and elsewhere has been based on that deeply-held belief. Not sure how that happened.

Yes, Pedro Feliciano would have been a good pitcher to put on the list in place of Francisco.

13. Dan Posted: January 01, 2011 at 05:07 PM (#3721274)

Thames would be a great fit for the last man on the bench. I'm kind of surprised that no one has signed him yet. Maybe that's a sign that he's holding out hope for a starting job or something.

14. Darren

Posted: January 01, 2011 at 05:34 PM (#3721284)

I don't understand how Francisco drew so little interest. You'd think he'd have gotten a multi-year deal.

15. Dan Posted: January 01, 2011 at 07:14 PM (#3721347)

As a type A FA with recent and serious injury issues, Francisco wasn't very appealing for any team besides the Rangers once they offered him arbitration.

16. Phil Coorey. Posted: January 02, 2011 at 04:36 AM (#3721589)

Honestly, given that the Red Sox will face the Yankees and their 50 switch-hitters 18 times a year, a guy like Jenks who can get lefty batters out as a righty makes a lot of sense.

Agree.

Has any mention been made that Jenks is a fallback / 'proven closer" plan B for Paplebon?( I have not been around much )

3 blown saves in April and he he is gone I feel.

17. Dale Sams Posted: January 02, 2011 at 04:44 AM (#3721598)

3 blown saves in April and he he is gone I feel.

Paps?

Nah.

18. Phil Coorey. Posted: January 02, 2011 at 05:02 AM (#3721605)

Paps?

Nah.

The Sox have too much at stake this year - let's wait and see - hopefully not - though I'll be calling for it , if he does stuff up early

19. joeysdadjoe Posted: January 02, 2011 at 05:43 PM (#3721782)

As I've argued before, the RHB caddy for Papi should also be able to play first base, and man third in an emergency. Otherwise the Sox have only one backup infielder. I think Marcus Thames fits the bill just about perfectly.

Thinking Thames would like a bigger role also. Having seen him play 3rd...you don't want to. Bat wise he would be perfect.

Maybe SF would eat 2/3 of Derosa's money?

20. Petuniaviles Posted: January 02, 2011 at 09:59 PM (#3721940)

That's a great name to throw out there, but I don't see why the Giants would want to move him, much less subsidize him for another team. He's a big part of their plan next year and is essentially the only acceptable backup plan to Pablo Sandoval getting his #### together at 3B.

21. Diapers McGee Posted: January 02, 2011 at 10:36 PM (#3721972)

Doubront absolutely needs to begin the season at AAA as the 7th starter. He could use a season to improve his control, and I'd assume they'll need to call on him at some point to start a handful of games. Theres enough arms at the back end of the bullpen that will need tryouts. They cant waste innings on Doubront, who 1) is better served starting (trade value & real value) and 2) will prob be good enough to stick if he does end up in the pen. It will be tempting to turn him into a reliever this year, esp given the lack of lefties. Wrong move tho.

Okajima doesnt make the team in a perfect world, but I'm assuming Tito will stick with him way too long. I dont think there was any need for that signing.

22. fret Posted: January 02, 2011 at 11:32 PM (#3721998)

There was discussion about Steve Pearce in the Pirates sign Overbay thread. ZiPS has him at 102 OPS+ and gives him defensive ratings for 1B, 3B, and RF. He wouldn't cost a fortune, obviously, but Pittsburgh won't give him up for nothing; right now he seems to be the Pirates' backup 1B and #1 RHB off the bench.

23. fret Posted: January 02, 2011 at 11:49 PM (#3722010)

A couple other names I saw browsing the ZiPS projections:
Oscar Salazar, Padres
Allen Craig, Cardinals

As of now ZiPS is out for 20 teams.

24. BoSoxBooster Posted: January 03, 2011 at 01:03 AM (#3722045)

A name I haven't heard mentioned as a RHB to pair with Papi is Bengie Molina. He may retire if he can't get a job as a starting catcher but he can hit lefties. He is also a bit redundant with 'Tek, but given the age and injury history of 'Tek and Salty, maybe that isn't such a bad thing. Maybe he could hit for the cycle FOR the Sox.:)

This doesn't help infield depth much, but that doesn't scare me given the flexibility of this roster. The 3 catchers and Youk should be able to back up at first and Lowrie and Scut's can back up 3rd.

Crazy idea?

25. Darren

Posted: January 03, 2011 at 01:25 AM (#3722054)

You guys are all nuts. It's Dan Nava's job to lose, I tell you. He can't be worse at 1B and 3B than he was in the OF! ;)

26. Dan Posted: January 03, 2011 at 01:46 AM (#3722064)

Nava's kind of short for a first baseman. And kind of left-handed for a third baseman.

27. Darren

Posted: January 03, 2011 at 02:03 AM (#3722069)

And he can't really hit righthanded. So what's you're point?

28. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: January 03, 2011 at 06:55 AM (#3722201)

1. Can't we just trade for Mike Napoli?
2. I expect Hideki Okajima to have Mike Timlin's job from a couple years back: sentimental mopup guy

29. Drew (Primakov, Gungho Iguanas) Posted: January 04, 2011 at 03:47 AM (#3722750)

I thought Okajima hated being in Boston.

30. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: January 04, 2011 at 01:37 PM (#3722906)

Okajima doesnt make the team in a perfect world, but I'm assuming Tito will stick with him way too long. I dont think there was any need for that signing.

It seems pretty clear to me that a 1st LHP would be more valuable than a 6th RHP in the bullpen. There are only so many high leverage outs - the front three should take most of them, and Wheeler can clean up the rest. The few leveraged outs remaining will be lefties in the 6th and 7th that you don't necessarily want Wheeler (or maybe Bard) facing.

Okajima seems like as good a candidate for first loogy as anyone. I don't see much reason to think Dennys Reyes would be a superior signing, and Okie's almost certainly cheaper. Okajima also has the upside that if he can recover his command, he's a legitimate high leverage option against lefties and righties.

31. ellsbury my heart at wounded knee Posted: January 04, 2011 at 07:07 PM (#3723170)

Bringing back Okajima seems fine to me. He can be decent against lefties, and if he's terrible the Red Sox still have Miller and Hill stockpiled in the minors (I think). They're all a little iffy, but hopefully at least one of them will be capable.

Boston just signed Hector Luna to a minor league deal. The Red Sox don't have a ton of infield depth in the high minors, and Navarro looked pretty bad in his brief callup last year. Looks like a decent depth signing, giving the Sox some replacement level depth at 3B/2B in AAA.

32. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: January 04, 2011 at 08:58 PM (#3723329)

With Beltre reportedly about to sign with Texas, it appears that the draft pick aspect of the offseason has gone about as well as it possibly could for the Sox. (The only danger, other than Beltre's contract falling through, is that the Rangers sign Soriano - he's the last remaining free agent rated more highly than Beltre by Elias.)

Both the Tigers and Rangers would give up their unprotected first rounders (19th and 26th), while the Sox lose their official first round pitch (#24) to the Rays. The Sox will get two supplemental picks in the range of 35-40 for Beltre and Martinez, and they should get another supplemental in the range of 50 for Felipe Lopez.

That's a nice haul, especially since apparently the 2011 draft class is one of the best in recent history.

33. Chip Posted: January 04, 2011 at 09:11 PM (#3723344)

Also especially since this might be the last time, or one of the last times, that picks are available as compensation.

34. Mike Emeigh

Posted: January 04, 2011 at 11:03 PM (#3723432)

Taylor Buchholz signed with the Mets.

-- MWE

35. Drew (Primakov, Gungho Iguanas) Posted: January 05, 2011 at 05:11 PM (#3723948)

Blanton to Boston per Rosenthal. No word on who they're giving up.

36. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: January 05, 2011 at 05:47 PM (#3723998)

Whoa... I said they needed SP depth, but I did not see them adding an established innings eater. if they're not trading Matsuzaka, that's going to be quite the glut for Tito to sort out - seven major league starting pitchers. You can make one a long reliever, but not two.

(in a minor update, the Rangers are now being linked to Soriano - makes sense, that would allow them to move Feliz to the rotation - but that would cost us a first round pick. Annoying.)

One positive on Blanton - he's the proud owner of my third favorite btf player nickname. Cupcakes!

EDIT: do you have a link for that? I'm not finding anything at Fox or on Robo's Twitter feed.

37. Drew (Primakov, Gungho Iguanas) Posted: January 05, 2011 at 05:54 PM (#3724004)

Why's he called Cupcakes?

38. Petuniaviles Posted: January 05, 2011 at 07:57 PM (#3724128)

I've wondered that as well. To me he'll always be Country Joe Blanton.

39. Drew (Primakov, Gungho Iguanas) Posted: January 05, 2011 at 08:45 PM (#3724170)

I saw the Blanton news on Boston.com - but it is gone now. Looks like somebody jumped the gun (including me).

40. Paul has a cat named Manny Posted: January 05, 2011 at 09:25 PM (#3724200)

Maybe someone at the Globe confused Joe Blanton with Tony Pena Jr., whom the Sox signed to a minor-league deal.

41. vortex of dissipation Posted: January 05, 2011 at 09:47 PM (#3724234)

I also don't think he's looking for a part-time job at the money the Sox can afford. Now, Matt Murton is a different story...

Matt Murton is signed through 2011. What possible reason would Hanshin have for wanting to part with someone who just hit .349 with 214 hits? The chance of the Tigers letting him go is 0%.

42. Jose Can You Seabiscuit Posted: January 05, 2011 at 10:29 PM (#3724292)

Sox have signed Max Ramirez. Somewhere Jim Sundberg and Geno Petralli eagerly await their phone call from Theo.

43. Mike Webber Posted: January 05, 2011 at 10:48 PM (#3724309)

Red Sox claimed C Max Ramirez off waivers from the Rangers.
Funny. The Red Sox nearly traded Mike Lowell for Ramirez one year ago and now they're getting the 26-year-old catcher for free. Ramirez batted .217/.341/.348 with two home runs and eight RBI over 69 at-bats for the Rangers in 2010 and will act as organizational depth for the Sox this season.

Max Ramirez picked up on waivers

44. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: January 05, 2011 at 10:50 PM (#3724310)

It looks like Ramirez is out of options (by my count, he had to be added to the 40-man roster before the 2008 season). I hope the Sox find a way to keep him - I'd guess the goal is to slip him through waivers at the last second at the end of spring - but I think there's a good chance someone else will claim him from us before the season starts.

EDIT: Also, I thought the 40-man roster was already full. Am I missing something?
EDIT2: Ah, they can waive someone else after the claim goes through. So they could DFA Wagner in the next couple days to make room.

45. Mattbert Posted: January 06, 2011 at 12:27 AM (#3724390)

Remember when we were going to have to give up an arm and a leg to pry just one of the Salty/Teagarden/Ramirez troika away from the Rangers? Now we've got two of them for (practically) nothing.

46. tfbg9 Posted: January 06, 2011 at 12:57 AM (#3724422)

I saw an old scouting report that said Max is below average behind the plate.
So, is this still the case?

47. Mattbert Posted: January 06, 2011 at 01:27 AM (#3724447)

Probably. Then again, his slash lines have dipped so ipso facto that must mean his defense has really improved!

48. OCD SS Posted: January 06, 2011 at 02:45 AM (#3724480)

Callis weighed in on twitter and mentions that Ramirez really needs to be thought of as a 1B/ DH type now. I guess if you squint and get the light to catch him just so he might look a bit like Mike Napoli...

49. tfbg9 Posted: January 06, 2011 at 03:10 AM (#3724490)

Thanks.

50. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: January 10, 2011 at 09:55 PM (#3727681)

Mini updates - Sox tried to slip Ramirez through waivers right away, lost him to the Cubs. That was quick. And Okajima has officially signed, one year 1.75M.

I can't find any reporting on the Red Sox search for a 25th man. It's almost like it's a boring and mostly unimportant story that no one except me cares about. Stupid market for journalism.

51. Tim Dawson Posted: January 10, 2011 at 11:30 PM (#3727741)

Phil, are you and your family ok?

52. Hugh Jorgan Posted: January 11, 2011 at 12:49 AM (#3727767)

#51..and the rest of you who know Phil..

For those of you not aware, the area that Phil and his family live(Toowoomba in QLD) was hit with some severe flash flooding yesterday afternoon. Much of the area has been inundated with flood water and the rain is persisting.
I spoke to Phil about 20 minutes ago. He and his family are safe, his pub however, has about 12 inches of water currently in it. He said he'd already managed to get onto the insurance guys, so once the rain stops, then the reparations can begin.

53. Weekly Journalist_ Posted: January 11, 2011 at 01:50 AM (#3727796)

Phil is an australian guy who owns a pub? That's awesome.

54. Hugh Jorgan Posted: January 11, 2011 at 02:02 AM (#3727799)

#53
Yep, Phil and his family own a rather large pub called the Spotted Cow in Toowoomba. They've won pub of year in QLD(this is a huge deal BTW) a few times and they run a bottle shop(liquor store) attached to the pub that carries something like 300 different types of imported beers.

55. Biff isn't really an apt handle anymore Posted: January 11, 2011 at 02:07 AM (#3727803)

And his wife is very good-looking. Much moreso than Phil!

(we kid because we love)

56. Tim Dawson Posted: January 11, 2011 at 02:51 AM (#3727823)

Good to hear. Those flood pictures were pretty scary.

57. Jose Can You Seabiscuit Posted: January 11, 2011 at 03:22 AM (#3727833)

Best to Phil. Glad everyone is safe.

58. Phil Coorey. Posted: January 11, 2011 at 03:38 AM (#3727839)

Hey guys - just bracing ourselves for another storm though it does not look as bad as yesterday. I was isolated yesterday from my family and pub for over 9 hours - it was a terrible day but fortunately my wife and staff are the best and there was not much I could do. The pub did suffer some damages (over 300K easily ) but we don't really care - we are all alive and well.

The loss of life is unprecedented as is the flooding - we are 900 metres above sea level and always thought we were safe - but with so much rain the previous month - something had to give as the soil is 100% saturated.

If you have not seen vision - be warned - some are really graphic and quite scary

Thanks for the well wishes anyway guys

We are about to be declared a disaster zone - it's unprecedented

59. Hugh Jorgan Posted: January 11, 2011 at 03:45 AM (#3727842)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kYUpkPTcqPY

Here's some local footage that shows you how quickly it all happens. Within about 40 seconds, that small waterway starts to overflow....

sorry if it didn't post as an actual link, I'm old and not well versed in these things.

60. Phil Coorey. Posted: January 11, 2011 at 03:51 AM (#3727847)

This explains it as well

Now Brisbane is in serious trouble

61. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: January 11, 2011 at 02:11 PM (#3727962)

Damn, Phil. Glad to hear at least you and your family are safe. Good luck with the pub - it is a goal of mine to find my way down there some day.

62. tfbg9 Posted: January 11, 2011 at 02:49 PM (#3727970)

Hang in there Phil.
Prayers for you and yours.

63. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: January 11, 2011 at 03:06 PM (#3727974)

I hope the flooding doesn't destroy too much alcohol.

64. Phil Coorey. Posted: January 11, 2011 at 10:54 PM (#3728378)

We are fine - there are so many people missing between here and Brisbane - we just can't get a grip on it. Now our third biggest city in Australia is about to flood - it makes no sense.

Thanks for well wishes guys

65. Chip Posted: January 11, 2011 at 11:05 PM (#3728383)

My Brisbane born-and-raised brother-in-law lives in the States now, but his elderly Mom is currently isolated from the rest of his family back home because of the road closures, making him worry; one of his sisters has in-laws who may have to evacuate their house in the next 24-36 hours.

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