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One thing I'd like to see happen is Aceves punted. I don't think it makes sense to make the moves they've made in the interest of a positive clubhouse and keep him around. He's not so good that he's a "must have." That said I love the bullpen. Two lefties give Farrell some flexibility and Tazawa, Uehara and Bailey are a 7-8-9 set up that I think should be expected to be very good.
My other hope is that Kalish gets the LF job ahead of Nava. I think there is upside with Kalish that does not exist with Nava. In both of Nava's MLB stints he has faded badly after a fast start. I think he is a classic guy who can do some things but gets exposed as teams see him. I don't think Kalish is likely to be worse than Nava and I think he has a good chance to be better.
I got a shout-out!
'Behaving like a normal baseball organization' would do wonders for my confidence. I would also note:
Last year the Sox paid about 55 million to four players for 2.1 WAR.
If we take the new guys salaries and compare them to last year we have:
Gomes, 5 mill, 1.6 WAR
Napoli, (if they sign him), 13 mill, 1.4 WAR
Dempster, 13 mill, 3.6 WAR
Victorino, 13 mill 2.4 WAR
Drew 9 mill, -.5 WAR
No real point. I just thought it was interesting. Those numbers are a bit underwhelming but a lot better than the fab four.
also, re: 'How much they have to spend next year'. Doesn't the tax penalty reset, so theoreticly, they can spend as much as they want in 2014?
The luxury tax payroll calculation also includes salaries for players on the 40-man but not on the 25-man, as well as some other random costs. A good rule of thumb is that the major league roster has a luxury tax threshold ~$12M under the official number.
My pessimistic take on this: 2014 will give us worse projections for Ortiz, Ross, Gomes, Victorino, and Napoli. Is Pedroia to the point of regression yet? Either way, let's say your eyeballing projection of 86 wins for 2013 is right on. Wouldn't this same roster, next year, project slightly worse? Not wildly, but something like 2-3 overall wins, combined? I'm only thinking of Middlebrooks and Drew as guys who would potentially project to be better in 2014 than in 2013.
Sorry if this is an overly simplistic point (or a wrong one, but please correct me!), but I think that's why I'm a bit... confused about this off-season. I like that they're not into Victorino, etc, for the long term, but they will all still be under contract next year. Which is going to mean a need for even more improvement to get to 90+ wins, but with less roster spots available.
I don't mean to imply that I think getting to 90+ wins will be easy. As I said, it looks like 2014 is a hill to climb, and the moves this offseason have made it more likely that the Sox will be non-shitty in 2014 bu they have not made it that likely that the Sox will be as good as they ought to be. I'm just feeling that with 15-16 months before the 2014 season starts, there's room to wait and see and not be overly pessimistic.
Oh no, I didn't mean to spearhead a style of pessimism!
For a moment let me try not to be a complete pessimist: even though I do not agree with the Sox strategy this offseason, there is enough upside on the roster for a pleasantly surprising season. Middlebrooks, Lavarnway, maybe de la Rosa or Iglesias are young, any of them could take big step forward. Pedroia could stay healthy, Lester could return to being Lester. Who knows what Ellsbury is at this point, but maybe he's much closer to his MVP self than he looked last year. Maybe not being managed by Bobby Valentine will bring out the best in the team.
From a simple rooting perspective next year should be fun. It's essentially a given that this team will be more fun to root for than last year's, but I think it'll be much much better. I expect I'll quite enjoy rooting for Victorino, as ambivalent as I may be about his signing; seems like my sort of player. Assuming Napoli's not broken, we should once again have a 1Bman who can hit some dingers. Dempster instead of Beckett is a massive upgrade in the easy-to-root-for department. I'm eager to see more from Middlebrooks and Tazawa, and I'm pretty hopeful about Lavarnway.
I'm not actually that pessimistic about the team per se, I just think they had a hell of an opportunity and didn't make the best of it. Not making the best of it might still be enough. If so, I'll gladly eat my words and go along for the ride.
Let's sat Pedroia performs in his "I'm better than Cano I swear" manner, and Ellsbury, maybe not out-of-his-mind levels, but plays like he should and doesn't get injured.
Let's say Will Middlebrooks performs at his "I want to be the next D-Wright/Evan Longoria" level, or at least Youkilis level.
Let's say Gomes is replacementish level, and Victorino with his defense is whatever.
Let's say Lackey doesn't have the highest ERA in baseball history.
Let's say Lester and Buchholz pitch as they should, or close to it, along with Dempster.
What do we need at this point? To be contenders for 90+ in 2014, we need a legit outfielder, we could use a short stop, and we could use a catcher.
And we could definitely use a starting pitcher.
Edit: I guess De La Rosa might be that SP, but I have massive doubts.
I'm fairly confident, if anything, in our bullpen. Lots of depth, some of those guys will be traded to shuffle the roster a bit.
Who do we target, how do we get there..and if all "goes well" how do we get to 90+ in 2014? Short stop..Catcher..a SP..an outfielder.. stay healthy..?
I was actually thinking just about the hitting side of things, but your post and Jose's make lots of good points. Especially this:
That's a very succinct articulation of what this off-season has delivered, for better or worse.
In the hypothetical world where "all goes well" I think the following things happen:
- Iglesias demonstrates a whiff of ability to hit AAA pitching. Bogaerts and Marrero make strides in the lower minors and earn mid-year promotions. Iglesias takes over at short in 2014.
- Doubront continues to emerge as a solid mid-rotation starter. Young power lefties who can strike out a batter per inning don't grow on trees. Doubront is a few refinements away from being a real asset.
- Kalish is more recovered from his shoulder injury and hits well enough to be half of a useful platoon in an outfield corner. Justin Upton gets called out by Arizona's ham-fisted ownership and they trade him to Boston next winter for pennies on the dollar. Yay!
Ryan Westmoreland has a better chance of contributing significant value on the field to the Red Sox than Kalish does. Kalish can't hit.
I think we should all be rooting for Arizona to have a really disappointing season. Guided by the rest of youse guys, I think this offseason's approach can be best understood as the foundational moves in preparation for the acquisition of Justin Upton (or a Justin Upton-type player). And that's how I'm looking at things from now on.
Hah. I am much less excited about Iglesias... I see him desperately trying to get on base and not succeeding. He'll play great D but be a liability at the plate.
Bogaerts seems more Hanley Ramirez-esque but who knows. I still think trading one of them for a possibly realistic short stop would be nice.
Doubront I have not seen enough of but I'll your take word on it that he can be a mid-rotation asset.
Justin Upton I don't like. He's gonna be too expensive, and he has too much of his brother/Carl Crawford in him to make me that excited. I'd rather see us go after someone like Trumbo, and I don't think Kalish is going to be a full time star left fielder in the majors, is he? We need a legitimately productive batter in LF.
We aren't to far from being there, but our SS is still a big question mark, as is one outfield spot, a catcher, and starting pitcher.
Certainly the last two seasons of lost development are a major concern but through 2010 he was playing like a guy who was capable of becoming a decent MLB player.
How Ryan Kalish of all people could generate an irrational hatred is beyond me, considering he's barely been around.
A lineup with above-average bats everywhere else can afford to carry a liability in the nine hole if he's saving you buckets of runs with his D. Obviously it remains to be seen whether the Sox will run out such a lineup, but it's conceivable.
Justin Upton I don't like. He's gonna be too expensive, and he has too much of his brother/Carl Crawford in him to make me that excited. I'd rather see us go after someone like Trumbo, and I don't think Kalish is going to be a full time star left fielder in the majors, is he? We need a legitimately productive batter in LF.
Upton's deal runs through the 2015 season, so three years remaining for a total bill of under $40M. That's entirely reasonable for a power bat just entering his prime. Further, I can't think of two corner outfielders much more dissimilar than Upton J and Crawford. Upton's approach at the plate is light years more advanced than Crawford's (and has been ever since he broke in at 19), and while he's by no means a bad defender he'll never be confused for a CF playing out of position. The guy he reminds me of the most is Giancarlo Stanton, but with slightly less raw power and more speed.
Trumbo, meanwhile, is a year and a half older than Upton and has never shown the ability to consistently get on base at any level. And he's a much worse defender and baserunner. Not a bad player, certainly, but not a guy I'd target, particularly.
Kalish is a good enough defender that he doesn't need to hit like a classic slugging left fielder to be valuable. Before the injury, he looked like a decent bet for a not quite as good as Trot Nixon sort of career. Labrum rehab is brutal, even for non-pitchers, so he's hopefully nearing the end of a long road back. This is probably his make or break season.
I know, it's odd, isn't it? I think it's the confluence of several factors - I had high hopes for him, then he had all these setbacks, and then when he finally has a chance to pitch in it's the worst stretch the Red Sox have had in a long time... and he just shits the bed, repeatedly. He LOOKED awful to me at the end of the 2012 season, and I guess a lot of my frustration at last year (and the year before) sort of landed on him. Which is unfair to him, personally, but luckily for him he doesn't care what I think of him. Because I still think he's terrible, will never hit, and needs to be traded while there's still a whiff of bloom left on his blossom.
Which I also feel about Iglesias, minus all the irrational hatred stuff. I just don't think he'll ever hit enough to justify a roster spot, much less a starting spot, and he should also be traded while anything can still be gotten out of him. I fear that spending ANOTHER year 'finding what we have' in Iglesias is going to be the year we finally find out he's actually probably worthless.
^this. I appreciate Mattbert modifying my opinion of guys like Trumbo and Upton tho. I know that Trumbo isn't the best D or the fastest, but put him in Fenway and in LF and his D is minimized and his bat is maximized. I agree that there are other options, but I am unsure how Justin Upton fits onto the team. I worry about him "fitting in" with the team and that he is frankly, with all his hype, only provided one stellar season. I guess he is still quite young tho.
I was reading this and remain vaguely skeptical on him, but I was unaware of how cheap he was for the next 3 years. That makes it entirely worth it.
http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/31290/is-justin-upton-a-top-10-player (I am not sure if I can link these types of things, sorry guys, new to the rules)
Finding talent like Upton at that price tho, does sound nice. I would like a legit corner OFer instead of Gomes/Victorino being our L/R out there.
I wonder if the 8.2M the Red Sox spent on signing Jose Iglesias has made them somewhat gun-shy in trading him. When you drop that much money on a 19 year-old prospect, it'll sting not to get a good ROI on him. At least Casey Kelly netted A-Gone.
Sure, but he is also one of our top touted prospects that is supposed to be part of this in-organization regrowth everyone keeps talking about. I just don't see him as filling out that role. I see him as being exactly what you say, a defensive sub in the 9th and a pinch runner/backup. Not exactly the savior of our next 10 years.
$8M over four years isn't that much for a prospect. It's hard to make comparisons because most kids who sign outside of the draft system are so young you can't justify a big bonus, and within the draft system a player's free agency is so constrained there aren't many useful comparisons. Junichi Tazawa, a merely ok prospect, got a million per season, compared to Iglesias' $2M per year.
I guess I'm a little surprised at the apparent investment folks had in Iglesias. I've pretty much always seen him as a fringe type. When you never demonstrate an ability to hit a baseball, I keep my distance. I wonder if it's partly a function of the weakness of the Sox farm system before the 2011 draft - Iglesias wasn't much of a prospect, but he was what we had. I hope he breaks out, of course, and pays off the hope and proves me wrong.
I won't be disappointed if he turns into an all-glove averagish player (actually that's a better description of Reese, isn't it?), but a defensive caddy for that kind of bonus has to be a miss.
this is absurd. how much is a special player worth? surely more than iglesias' bonus of 6 mil. if you hit 1 of these guys out of 10, you're probably at least coming out even.
In other news and to paraphrase Cliff Clavin; Mike Napoli, what's up with that? When do we start thinking about just moving on and signing Adam Laroche. I kind of get the feeling that Laroche is waiting for a Napoli deal to be finalized because he knows if that falls through he can take that 3/39 deal the Sox offered Napoli.
I have no idea what's up with that, although it certainly seems to have progressed beyond the point where the initial "Oh, he got the flu and couldn't fly in to take his physical" rumors are a plausible explanation. Is there a chance he learned that Victorino signed essentially an identical contract and thought (rightly or wrongly) "Hang on, I'm worth more than that guy"? Just spitballin'...
Given the recent track record of this club if the physical turned up something nervy I would simply punt and sign Swisher or Laroche. Bringing in someone pre-broken just seems like a bad idea.
I would strongly, strongly prefer Swisher if it comes to that.
Do you think the Sox would be willing to give up a draft pick for him? By my count it would be the 46thish overall pick (their #7 pick is protected). Should the Sox give up that pick for him?
I have no idea of next year's draft class but if there are talented guys who need convincing to sign, it may even be beneficial to lose the 46thish pick so that the earmarked money could go towards the 7th overall pick or the later-round tough-signing guys.
EDIT: No wait it doesn't work that way. Nevermind my second paragraph. I'm still wrapping my head around the draft implications of the new CBA.
According to Edes, it took 52 days to sign J. D. Drew after reaching agreement with him. I don't think there's anything to worry about. If the Sox were really worried, they'd back out. I think they're just dotting i's and crossing t's.
In the context of international FAs, this is a really, really high bonus. Guys who get it are usually considered top prospects and that's why Iglesias was considered a top prospect. Maybe I went too far in saying that him not making it is a "miss," though. It's probably to be expected in a fair number of top prospects.
I'd hate to deal Iglesias just as a fan. The few times I've seen him he is such a treat defensively that he's fun to root for. He makes some plays that are just impossible to comprehend.
I am expecting very much not to like the Hanrahan trade. The cost is surely going to be more than just Morales or Aceves, but that would be my clear maximum bid for a reliever.
.230 BABIP too.
Looks like the Sox are clearing out their 40-man roster in one fell swoop.
This isn't Reddick, where the kid had three plus tools and had shown the kind of skill development in the majors that made his breakout reasonably predictable, but it's still not good.
As SoxScout points out over on SoSH:
Those 10BB in the last 9 IP drive up the rate. And if you look at his career rate, I think you'll see it was an aberration. As I said in the main thread, I don't get the negativity.
And MCoA, slow down on Reddick. His "breakout" 2012 was a 110 OPS+, compared to his 109 OPS+ the year before. Reddick needs to learn how to hit better or he'll be a 4th outfielder or out of baseball in a few years.
And as for Sands, he put up the .900 OPS in the PCL. Let's not forget it's the PCL.
Let's all take a little toke on the objective pipe.
I don't like saying this, but this. For a reliever.
But you're right, it's not Reddick or even Lowrie who for even half a season has value.
As far as i can tell, Sands raked at every level but for his 1/3rd season in the majors. But, mostly I don't like trading field players for relievers.
And Bard.
I mean I'm not super high on Bard but the Sox are sitting on a guy who throws 98-99 and a year ago was one of the best set up men in the game.
I'll repeat what I said in the thread about the trade; Sands/Stolmy is a reasonable package for Hanrahan but it's an odd use of resources for this team.
I agree, although Atchison is not under contract. Tazawa should be getting some prime innings - last year he threw 86 shutdown innings, half in AAA and half in the American League, with 100 K's and only 22 BB's and 3 homeruns allowed, and the stuff to match.
Right or wrong I think it is quite clear that the Red Sox have made the clubhouse a major part of their decision making process this winter.
For what it's worth, ZiPS still doesn't really love Reddick next year.
Sands, Pimentel, Melancon, DeJesus
for
Hanrahan and Brock Holt
Not a huge fan of this but the Sox aren't exactly giving away the farm and Holt at least looks good on a BBRef page. Middle infielder, .808 OPS in the minors. Don't know a damned thing about him other than that though so I can't really get excited but #### it, I'll get a little excited.
I say "one would hope" because I have zero interest in giving up a draft pick to get LaRoche and don't think he'd be any great shakes; even if he signed for just a 2-year deal (a big if), I'm not sure that would balance out the loss of the pick (and the slot money for that lost pick).
I'm really not concerned about it specifically, but the Red Sox have shown that they ARE concerned about it in their specific choice of Free Agent signings during this entire offseason. For every position they were looking at filling, they've signed the option that didn't require giving up a draft pick and giving up the ~$1M in the draft pool that the 2nd round pick is worth. Personally I think that was a missed opportunity; the Red Sox won't often have a protected first round pick and during an offseason when they did have one they should have taken advantage of that and signed either a Hamilton or a Swisher or maybe even Greinke. But since they went with Victorino, Gomes, Dempster, and provisionally Napoli over those guys, changing their plans at the last minute and giving up a pick for the likes of Adam LaRoche would show a complete inability to execute a coherent and logical strategy for the offseason.
Two reasons;
1. Second round picks have value. It's not the 7th pick in the draft but it's a pretty useful spot in the draft that should be helpful.
2. It impacts the Sox signability issues. If the Sox lose the pick they also lose that slot money for the draft. It's possible that is a non-issue but if they are able to get the player in that spot to sign for below slot they have some money to spend elsewhere.
Right now, Dejan is trying to get the Pirates' front office fired, for what are apparently personal reasons. As such, take anything he says with a grain of salt.
+ 6 Bat - 2 Run + 15 Rep - 8 Pos + 5 Def = +15 RAR
He projects as a below average player. The Sox can certainly cobble together equivalent 1B production from Mauro Gomez and another minor league bat.
That's a bit harsh, no? They lost out on one guy and had to go with their 2nd choice, thereby losing a nearly valueless pick? I don't see it.
I do agree, though, that LaRoche is not a good target.
This times a million. LaRoche is the guy you add as a free agent when you already have a lights out staff and 3-4 all stars on the roster. Let's hope this is just to motivate Napoli to sign a favorable deal.
I disagree with the idea that a 2nd round pick is "valueless." Beyond that while Dan may have been a bit harsh I am aggressively unimpressed with Cherington so far.
Darren, your trade ideas for 1B look wiser every day that this Napoli business remains s.n.a.f.u. The Angels did end up trading someone to relieve their logjam - and not exactly for a king's ransom. I'm not sure if LAA would have dealt with Boston. The Cardinals guys all remain untraded.
How about "nearly valueless"? :) An early 2nd round pick averages, what, about 5 career WAR? And according to Wang, it has an excess value of a couple million dollars. Is that a couple million dollars going to be a major consideration when acquiring a free agent? Sounds like, ya know, nearly valueless.
Sorta. If they chose Napoli over Swisher based on the pick, lost out on Swisher during the medical brouhaha and then had to go with their *3rd* choice, it seems fair to criticize management. Of course, they may have liked Napoli over Swisher based on expected performance or the years involved rather than just the pick.
I'll agree to "potentially valueless" and nothing lower! This is shaping up to be the Sox Therapy Cliff! (assuming the "impact player" brouhaha has been resolved).
Ultimately draft picks as a whole are "mostly valueless" but I think they help create a perceived organizational depth which can help in making a trade. Even if we accept for the moment the "nearly valueless" determination I don't think Laroche is a player to give up a lottery ticket for.
The current projection for the 2013 amateur draft is that this is one of the weakest draft classes of the last decade or two. That's annoying (and things could easily change this spring), but it does suggest that overdrafting at #7 is an even better idea than usual. If one of the best players drops to #7, and he won't sign for $1M over slot, the Sox can roll over that pick to 2014, when the draft class almost certainly has to be stronger.
EDIT: As dave h suggests, though, the same logic also applies to overdrafting at 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 6th. You can risk losing the #5 pick because the 2014 #5 should be more valuable. It depends on the team, of course - some clubs need to show a return from the draft or maximize the near-future value of their draft picks. The Sox' payroll and the quality of the minor league system give us more leeway.
Yeah, I'm more worried about it actually going through but with a JD Drew/John Lackey "Please play hurt and don't tell us" clause.
If you follow mlbtraderumors, you'll know that the "mystery team" interested in Napoli was floated on the same afternoon that the LaRoche stories were floated. The simplest explanation for the "mystery team" rumor is to gain back some leverage in negotiations with the Sox.
Equally simple and realistic is that Napoli is being shopped and some team is actually interested. Because he should be a pretty desirable signing, and there seems to be little reason for the agent to not find alternatives to the Red Sox at this point.
A team could easily give him a 1/13-15 deal, so he can prove his health. I'd have to think the Yankees would be interested in that.
I could be wrong but I would expect that Napoli wouldn't go to another team unless he got a 3 year guarantee (or maybe he's pissed and would take a similar 2+1 that I believe the Sox are offering). I doubt a 1 year deal is that appealing to him.
I'm making the assumption that the Sox' offer is 2/26 + 1/13 that kicks in at 800 PA or something like that. I haven't read anything concrete on that front but that seems reasonable. If the Sox were offering one year I think he'd have bailed.
I could be wrong but I would expect that Napoli wouldn't go to another team unless he got a 3 year guarantee (or maybe he's pissed and would take a similar 2+1 that I believe the Sox are offering). I doubt a 1 year deal is that appealing to him.
I'm making the assumption that the Sox' offer is 2/26 + 1/13 that kicks in at 800 PA or something like that. I haven't read anything concrete on that front but that seems reasonable. If the Sox were offering one year I think he'd have bailed.
No point in bailing until you've got a fallback.
Your scenario makes sense, but if Napoli is unhappy with the 2 yr + option, he's going to make sure he has another acceptable offer before he cuts off talks.
Well, if you ignore that these two rumors were released within hours of each other, it seems possible that there is a mystery team. But the fact is that the LaRoche rumor was followed within hours by the mystery team rumor. There might still be a market for Napoli, but for the last few weeks he's been "off the market" having reached agreement with the Sox.
Did you look at the link? They actually give you a WAR projection! (Hint: less than 3)
Even after 2 averagish years with the bat, ZiPS projects a below average offensive year for Reddick. I'd call that "not loving", but you can call it what you like.
He's 28 and he's been repeating AAA since he was 24. His playing time in Memphis has been limited every year. He hasn't played a full season of ball since 2007. I'm guessing he's significanly injury-prone, but a quick google didn't turn up much information. He got called up to the Cardinals bench in 2011, so his limited PA in 2011 might have been about bench-warming rather than injury.
But the semi-interesting part. These are Mark Hamilton's hitting numbers in AAA before 2012:
319/406/530, 640 AB, 148/90 K/BB
That translates roughly to an MLE line of 355/435. Not bad.
Obviously, my exclusion of 2012 doesn't really serve any purpose other than to create pretty numbers. Hamilton was bad last year, hitting 230/340/420 and seeing his K-rate spike well over 25%. There's a reason he's getting cut. But this is a guy with some amount of potential, who's still around his peak age. He has played both 1B and LF, which makes him a pretty perfect fit for the bench if he can recover his batting stroke.
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