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   1. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: July 12, 2016 at 01:29 AM (#5263292)
David Ortiz – xxxxxxxxx - future Hall of Famer


hey, whoa. I have it on good authority from CFB in numerous threads over the years that there is no way this guy is a future HOFer. No way, no sir!

Thanks for the awards, definitely a good bit of fun.

Ironically I think even without a deep rotation the team could be a beast in the playoffs assuming you believe that Wright and Porcello can be decent and give you 5/6 in each start. With long relief of Clay/Kelly and E-rod along with Kimbrel, Uehara, Tazawa and now Ziegler to cover the last inning or two, in a short series this team could really punish people. Or am I just blowing smoke out my arse as per usual?

Oh and Moncada is just a beast(can they teach him to play 3rd?). I reckon his bat is good enough to play at 1B/DH next year when Ortiz retires and Hanley is manning a fair bit of DH(I presume)
   2. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: July 12, 2016 at 07:34 AM (#5263304)
Oh and Moncada is just a beast(can they teach him to play 3rd?


My father and I were talking about this last week. I think you will see him at third eventually and the moment you do is the moment he goes from "player being developed" to "guy on the cusp of a call up." Right now I think they are just letting him develop his all around game and adjust to living in the States. I think when he shifts to third base or left field that he will be in the majors within a couple months.
   3. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: July 12, 2016 at 08:19 AM (#5263322)
Ortiz is having such a monstrous year it actually compares well with a Ted Williams year. Considering that Teddy Ballgame was one of the two best hitters to ever grace the game, that's extremely high praise.

I am thoroughly enjoying his final season, and I want the Sox to do as well as possible for him to have a perfect send-off.
   4. bbmck Posted: July 12, 2016 at 12:03 PM (#5263478)
Highest non-Ted Rbat for the Red Sox, Ted would be on this list 14 times including the Top 6:

Player              Rbat OPS+  ISO Year Age  PA
Jimmie Foxx         74.0  182 .356 1938  30 685
Carl Yastrzemski    69.4  193 .295 1967  27 680
Tris Speaker        68.5  189 .184 1912  24 675
Babe Ruth           66.9  217 .336 1919  24 543
Carl Yastrzemski    66.3  177 .263 1970  30 698

Jimmie Foxx         63.5  188 .334 1939  31 565
Wade Boggs          58.5  168 .123 1988  30 719
David Ortiz         58.0  171 .290 2007  31 667
Wade Boggs          58.0  174 .225 1987  29 667
Wade Boggs          55.1  151 .110 1985  27 758

Fred Lynn           54.5  176 .303 1979  27 622
Manny Ramirez       53.3  184 .298 2002  30 518
Tris Speaker        52.5  182 .169 1913  25 611
Tris Speaker        51.7  178 .165 1914  26 667
Wade Boggs          51.6  157 .129 1986  28 693

Bob Johnson         50.6  174 .204 1944  38 626
Jimmie Foxx         49.5  155 .292 1936  28 693
Jim Rice            49.4  157 .285 1978  25 746
David Ortiz         49.0  158 .304 2005  29 713
Manny Ramirez       49.0  159 .262 2003  31 679

Rico Petrocelli     48.5  168 .292 1969  26 643
David Ortiz         47.9  161 .349 2006  30 686
Carl Yastrzemski    47.3  171 .195 1968  28 664
Jim Rice            46.5  154 .271 1979  26 688
Manny Ramirez       46.0  165 .298 2006  34 558

Wade Boggs          45.8  150 .125 1983  25 685
Adrian Gonzalez     45.3  155 .210 2011  29 715
Mike Greenwell      45.3  160 .205 1988  24 693
Nomar Garciaparra   45.3  153 .246 1999  25 595
...
David Ortiz         33.6  184 .349 2016  40 343 


Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 7/12/2016.

Boggs 5; Ortiz, Manny, Yaz, Foxx & Speaker 3; Rice 2; AdrianG, Nomar, Greenwell, FLynn, Petrocelli, Bob Johnson & Ruth 1. Ortiz likely to add a 4th season of 45+ Rbat this year. 33.6 is the 64th highest non-Ted Red Sox Rbat, 80th including Ted. Highest ISO for the Red Sox, min 300 PA:

Player          ISO OPSRbat  PA Year Age
Jimmie Foxx    .356  182 74.0 685 1938  30
David Ortiz    .349  184 33.6 343 2016  40
David Ortiz    .349  161 47.9 686 2006  30
Ted Williams   .347  209 51.5 416 1955  36
Ted Williams   .343  233 82.7 547 1957  38
Babe Ruth      .336  217 66.9 543 1919  24 


Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 7/12/2016.
   5. Walt Davis Posted: July 14, 2016 at 10:58 PM (#5265430)
Baseball Reference shows him with a -0.6 dWAR which honestly seems far worse than he has been.

It's very hard for a 1B not to have negative dWAR because of the positional adjustment. Plus -.6 dWAR in a season is pretty much what he's averaged through his career. Note Rfield puts him at -1 this year which is essentially dead average for a 1B. (And I don't think it includes scooping.)

I have it on good authority from CFB in numerous threads over the years that there is no way this guy is a future HOFer. No way, no sir!

Always a difference between should be and will be -- although I don't know what cfb's feelings are on "will be." Three to four years ago, both looked very much in doubt but this incredible finish to his career, cruising past 500 HR, on the way to his 4th straight 100 RBI year (and 10th of his career), and he'll get a ton of MVP love this year and maybe even win it if the Red Sox can take the division ... he'll get in, deserving or not. Probably made himself into a 1st ballot guy now (depending on who else debuts).

To quantify, through age 36 he was on 40 WAR and, given his age and recent performance and injury at age 36, you couldn't expect more than 45 by the end.

Ortiz 33-36: 280/375/531, 2221 PA, 112 HR, 137 OPS+, 10.6 WAR, 2.6 WAA
Ortiz 37-40: 289/379/566, 2159 PA, 124 HR, 153 OPS+, 14.1 WAR, 6.7 WAA and counting

FWIW, ZiPS loved Ortiz going into 2013 in all ways except playing time ... "projected" to just 418 PA, but a 150 OPS+ and 3.4 WAR. Dan got that pretty much spot on except Ortiz did it for 600 PA. So maybe his future 37-40 wasn't as dim as it seemed to me but to out-perform ages 33-36 in every way from ages 37-40 is quite rare in baseball.

I still wouldn't put him in my personal HoF and I'm sure there will be somebody on the ballot who I think clearly outclasses him that will be lucky to get 1/3 of his vote total, but I have no doubts Ortiz is going in.

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