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1. John DiFool2 Posted: September 02, 2007 at 04:46 AM (#2508359)Tell me about it, I was in a filthy mood when I woke up before the Clay game. Times change!
But who is tito going to go to when he wants a close game to get out of hand? Nothing like having your fourth best bullpen arm throwing in a one run game with two on and no outs.
I may have mixed this up, but WEEI has Moss and Elsbury starting today.
-can we have a happy thread without wok ranting against perfectly good players? Thanks.
YES. I hope Hinske disappears like [I can't think of something obscene right now, I'll fill this in later]
-can we have a happy thread without wok ranting against perfectly good players? Thanks.
Two months of smoke and mirrors from some con-man wizard with a 87 mph fastball is not going to convince me that Mike Timlin isn't toast.
What does Andy Pettitte have to do with Mike Timlin being toast or not?
I've been defending him all season but I think Ellsbury and Moss could join George Clinton and the ghost of Rick James in a search party deep into the heart of the land of funk and still not rescue J.D. Drew
If you're still around, where are you moving to? Did you finish school?
Good times today for the Red Sox. Their lineup certainly indicated to me, once again, that they feel that winning games is not a high priority right now. But the kids played well and won this one for them.
A couple questions for the gang:
--Can anyone figure out how the heck Ellsbury is slugging .380 in AAA? The guy has hit the ball very solidly in his time in the bigs. He looks amazing out there.
--What do we make of Gagne's absence from today's game?
I heard he was sore in the shoulder, can't remember where I read it.
I liked his double off the wall yesterday even though I wanted the inning to end so Clay could get back out for his no hitter
Eric Gagne, who hasn't pitched in a week, is battling some shoulder tightness.
The Red Sox believe Gagne overdid it in side sessions as he attempts to return to form. He's pitched scoreless innings in his last four appearances for Boston.
In keeping with the thread title, I'm loving the way they're integrating the young players. Buccholz and Ellsbury are doing everything they can to earn more playing time, you've got Youks homering and Pedroia fielding and Papelbon closing. That's just fun.
I assume the Sox must be planning to demote Lester, and I don't quite know how that's gonna happen. I figure he'll understand that the dude who threw the no-hitter needs to be in the rotation.
I'd love to see him face them
Boy, the Gagne trade is turning into a real mess. It's getting to the point where they're better off if he's type B because teams are not going to want to surrender their first rounder for him. Who knows, the Sox might not even want to offer arb.
Hey, hey, hey. Another 2 hits today brought Pedroia back up to .324.
Another couple questions:
--Would the Sox have been better of with Buc pitching 7 IP 2 H 12 K 0 BB, 100 pitches? More dominating, less wear and tear, further from his IP cap, etc.
--What is Tito's goal when constructing a lineup? Is he aiming to maximize how much he switches up everyone but Manny and Ortiz?
Kevin Cash, OTOH, I have no explanation for.
Well, they have six pretty good starters, it appears--and I think a little time off would be a boon to Schilling heading to post-season.
To go against the spirit of the thread a bit, I still haven't seen much of anything from Jon Lester that suggests he's major league ready. His velocity is inconsistent, his best pitch is non-existent, and his command is fluctuating between bad and passable, without the stuff to cover for it. I expect to spend the winter making regular comments here defending Lester's potential and pointing out that he spent the 2006 offseason not building up his strength, not preparing for a year of pitching, but beating frickin' cancer. I don't think he should be starting for the Red Sox in 2007.
What exactly is good about Tavarez and Lester?
MC sums up the situation with Lester pretty well. I don't see a strong argument for him being in the rotation. And I, as my posts make clear, share his frustration. But I would say that my frustrations stem from more than just being "a fan in the moment." I want this team to win the division because a) that's one of the goals that I root for the team to acheive, and b) it would set them up quite well for the playoff run. I'm really surprised that they either don't care about the division or that they think they've locked it up.
I think they're probably right. In spite of that ERA, the Red Sox are 6-1 in his starts so far. If we were two games up on the Yankees instead of six, it would be a different story.
What do you peg their odds of winning the division at right now? 90% or so, right? How much do you really think those odds change we drop Lester from the rotation?
That seems like a coincidence more than anything, and something that they certainly couldn't have predicted when giving him those starts. Lester's FIP was 5.61 and his xFIP is 5.33 coming into today, which is pretty much what you would have expected based on his minor league work this year. He's given up a line of .268 .338 .447 and an ERA of 5.67, so he's not some kind of BIP trickster either. He simply hasn't pitched well this year.
Right now, yes, 90 percent or above. But they were at ~99 percent before the Yanks series. To me, stretching the possibility of blowing the division from 1 percent to 10 percent in a few days is very bad and should be avoided.
And I should make clear, I'm not saying that Lester in the rotation, in isolation, is evidence that they don't care or aren't worried. It's the repeated usage of Cash, batting Cora 2nd, using Lopez in a tight game, etc.
I'm not as sanguine as bibigon with regard to the wisdom of this strategy. I think one could just as easily make the case that Buchholts will learn the most from pitching well in the majors right now, while Lester could develop bad habits if he keeps going out there will such marginal stuff and command.
I think the Sox have their reasons, and I think these reasons are articulable without saying that the division race is ovahh, or worthless, but I'm likewise skeptical that the Sox are right.
Sure - that's reasonable. On issues like these however (developmental issues), I tend to give the front office a relatively wide berth, since I suspect the gap between our analytical abilities and theirs is larger than it is for questions about stuff like bullpen usage.
I have much more confidence in the fact that using Papelbon in a 4 run game while using Timlin for two innings in a tie game is probably suboptimal than I do in any conjecture about how pitching at the major league level will affect Buchholz/Lester. I have theories about both, but I have a great deal more confidence in the former than the latter, and as such, I need a higher standard of evidence to doubt the team's internal thinking on these issues.
It's not that I agree with the Red Sox's thinking, it's that I'm more hesitant to criticize it here (since I know less about the subject) than I am on other subjects. Make sense?
- I'm kind of happy that Manny's out for a little while. I'm pretty heavily rooting for a 2008 Drew/Crisp/Ellsbury outfield, so I'm glad to get a trial version.
- The games the rest of the way really don't matter much. Winning the division is nice but I think Cleveland is a little better than Anaheim so it all comes pretty close to evening out. The difference between the Sox and Cleveland/Anaheim is pretty massive I think, much bigger than the records indicate.
BTW, I went to Saturday's Cubs/Astros game with Nate Silver, he's a cool guy.
Why do you think this?
I mean the Angels have worse pitching than us and Garrett Anderson batting cleanup (I think he is anyway). There's no way they're even close.
No christ. Like flags, certain events are forever. The very marginal decrease in chance of injury isn't nearly worth that. Sometimes I really wonder what is wrong with you? I thought that always went without saying.
The redsox have a 6 game lead with 30 to play. The odds of them winning the div is well higher than 90%. I have no problem with John Lester starting against one of the worst teams in the game under those circumstance.
I don't think it's a coincidence the Sox have a better record, and could even be convinced that if the teams played the season over the Sox might even expand that lead. But in the playoffs, both those teams are pretty scary.
We never seem to have problems with Lackey, and it's not like the pitchers we'd be putting out there are bad.
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