Don't forget Jamie Vermilyea (for now).

And just for gits and shiggles, if Clemens comes to Boston, they will have the luxury of dealing from depth (if not strength), therefore Wells/Clement/Arroyo can really be held for ransom against teams in dire need of pitching.

If I'm the Red Sox, I'd wait until Spring Training before trading any pitching.

Beckett and Clement are the only two starters without serious question marks. The Sox could almost certainly fill out a decent rotation with the other 5...if they pick the right 3.

My guess is that Wells is done and Papelbon isn't ready yet, but Schilling and Arroyo will bounce back somewhat, and Wake will be Wake. It could just as easily be the opposite for any of those 5, though.

Beckett and Clement are the only two starters without serious question marks.

they have just regular question marks.

I agree that the Sox should wait till the season gets closer. We'll have more info on the health of all the pitchers--specifically Schilling and Foulke. Other teams will be looking for some help will call, as well as ones who find out about injuries.

Two questions:

1. Wade Miller?

2. "Welcome to Porn Valley"?

Beckett and Clement are the only two starters without serious question marks.

I assume you mean by this that there is no question that Clement will suck. Because there are certainly serious questions about his ability to pitch well this year.

Let's go over the question of Clement's "suckiness" from this year.

According to FIPS he was 18th in the AL last year, and 44th in all of baseball for qualifying starters. I don't think FIPS is league/park adjusted either, so that pegs him as the 4th best #2 starter in the AL. Here, i'll outsource this to Eric Van:

http://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?showtopic=2086&st=20

The truth is that our expectations for a good starter a just a bit too high. I think Clement had a bit of an off year, came back a start too soon after he got beaned, and still pitched pretty well. ZiPS puts him at a 4.33 ERA for next year. While we think that sounds high (I think, for me at least, years of Pedro tossing up 2.x ERAs like he was washing windows has made me think it's way too easy), it's a pretty solid ERA. Yes, Arroyo's is lower by ZiPS and Arroyo is cheaper, but that's a good thing. That speaks well of our pitching staff, not badly of it. Clement is an above average pitcher, I'd say we could expect an DiPS ERA+, which by the way should be published, of about 110 or so next year. He's made 30 starts every year for the past seven years. An above-average innings eating horse. Really, maybe he's only worth 8.5 million or something, but he's pretty solid. We just have to change our expectations.

New Theo stuff here:

http://www.ecnnews.com/cgi-bin/15/etstory.pl?-sec-Sports+fn-fn-fn-theoreturn.1211-20051211-fn+page_1

Overpaying for center fielder Johnny Damon is also reportedly a concern of Epstein and his supporters, who seem to be targeting trades for Seattle center fielder Jeremy Reed and Cleveland's Coco Crisp as a backup plan. Lucchino, meanwhile, has been spearheading the Damon negotiations.

Getting Jeremy Reed would be awesome. I hope the Mariners have absolutely no confidence in him after his sub 700 OPS season

Cleveland's Coco Crisp as a backup plan.

yes! brilliant! i love it! then i can get my "crisp" red sox jersey!!!

What JoelW said about Clement. Of all the things that were disappointing about last year, Clement's performance ranks waaaay down the list.

As to Crisp, I do like the guy a lot, but have my doubts about whether he'd be at least average defensively in CF. Maybe Tribe fans can weigh in on this. And he wouldn't come terribly cheaply in any case.

Crisp played quite a bit of center in the previous couple of seasons.
I'm pretty sure he ain't no elite center fielder. BPro's fielding metrics peg him as good in left and poor in center (11 runs below average in 188 appearances in center).

So you're suggesting the Sox should trade a starter for Crisp? The Indians seems pretty high on Crisp (at least, higher than I am) so I doubt they'd trade him for Wells or Arroyo. .300/.345/.465 in 2005 is okay for a young speedy left fielder, but not great. It looks like he could match Damon's offense but would be a noticeable defensive downgrade in center. IMHO, either Wells or Arroyo would be a very nice fifth starter in the Tribe rotation, but it would create another corner hole in the Cleveland lineup. This deal doesn't feel like a good fit to me.

And if I were a Sox fan, I might prefer Reed, who's apparently better in center and a year younger (but without Crisp's success with the bat yet).

Crisp was really, really good by UZR. I think he led the AL for left fielders. My guess is he'd be average in center, great in left, but he has no throwing arm.

Yankees are really, truly stupid. Mariners are interested in Carl Pavano, but the Yankees want a reliever or Raul Ibanez. They think Jeremy Reed is not an upgrade over Bubba Crosby.

Cleveland's Coco Crisp as a backup plan.

Do the Indians know this? Or is Coco a backup plan the way Bonds is a backup plan in LF for when Manny gets traded, and Pujols is a backup plan at 1B in case Youks can't hack it there?

They think Jeremy Reed is not an upgrade over Bubba Crosby.

I really wonder why the Yankees haven't won a WS for years now.

I hear that Chip Ambres kid is pretty good. And his established market value is two months of an infielder. Heck, we've got 3Bmen coming out the wazoo; it should be a done deal.

Wait, so the Mariners want not so good pitchers with large contracts. For a young fast centerfielder? We have OK pitchers with large contracts! We need a centerfielder! Wells for Reed? Wells+others for Reed? Why isn't this happening.

The Sox are too busy offering Wells plus others for Miguel Tejada?

As a possible contingency plan if they lose Johnny Damon, the Red Sox have discussed a deal with the Mariners that would involve Matt Clement going to Seattle and center fielder Jeremy Reed coming to Boston, according to a source with direct knowledge of the discussions.

I think I'd like that deal a lot, even if there's nothing to spend all the saved money on right now. Having $20 million or whatever freed up next year would be huge. I bet Reed's ZIPS OPS in Fenway would be within 50 points of Damon's, and Reed is probably 5-10 runs better on defense now.

I like Clement but he's kind of pointless with all the pitching depth we have

whoops, heres the link: http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/articles/2005/12/13/deal_with_mariners_discussed/

I like Clement but he's kind of pointless with all the pitching depth we have

What pitching depth? I see a lot of pitchers certainly, but the Sox don't really have 7 starters, as Wells is probably gone and Papelbon is probably better suited to the pen. Counting on Schilling and Clement and Beckett to all be healthy and effective, I fear, is an exercise in wishful thinking.

really rough translation of Reed's line from last year to Fenway last year: 0.293/0.359/0.423

He gains a ton of doubles basically. I think you make that deal and tell Johnny to go play in New York, and then run on him every chance you have.

Answer guy: DiNardo, Alvarez, Lester. Papelbon still counts as pitching depth, even if you think he'd be better in the pen.

there's alot to like about dinardo, should be ready by midseason, and alvarez is likely better than the jeremi gonzalez's of the world. if i had my way, dinardo would be ahead of arroyo on the depth chart.

really rough translation of Reed's line from last year to Fenway last year: 0.293/0.359/0.423

How'd you come up with that? It seems a bit too different from his .254/.322/.352 actual line.

The Sox are too busy offering Wells plus others for Miguel Tejada?

YOu forgot the [/snark]

Despite that...
Wait, so the Mariners want not so good pitchers with large contracts. For a young fast centerfielder? We have OK pitchers with large contracts! We need a centerfielder! Wells for Reed? Wells+others for Reed? Why isn't this happening.


is still correct.

How'd you come up with that? It seems a bit too different from his .254/.322/.352 actual line.

CFBPS!

Big deal. Omar has a plethora of piñatas.

How'd you come up with that? It seems a bit too different from his .254/.322/.352 actual line

Bpro's translated (neutral) stats give him a 265/345/380 line.

So Fenway adds 30 points of BA to a neutral line? Wow.

Math wrong, forgot that park factors only apply to half of games!

0.273/0.342/0.388 or so?

Much closer I think. Still, my guess is he'll be quite a bit better than that. Especially as a lefty in Fenway who goes the opposite way a good amount, I think his doubles will increase a bit more than even the park factors say.

.275/.350/.400 for next year, which is, you know, not that much different from Johnny.

Danny, just so we're clear it wasn't a neutral line remember, because safeco depresses hits, and fenway increases them. Specifically, Fenway increases doubles a lot because of the monster and Safeco depresses them a lot cause it's big.

Danny, just so we're clear it wasn't a neutral line remember, because safeco depresses hits, and fenway increases them.

Yeah, I got that. It would have been 30 points of BA from the neutral line Josh quoted in 27, and 40 points from his Seattle line.

And I agree that Reed should be expected to improve a good amount on his 2005.

Ah, good old Bavasi. Always there for the taking.

As long as BOS doesn't ask for that untouchable SS, Bavasi will bring his own lube.

tfbg9 brought up in the thread where we're not talking about Jeremy Reed that his minor league numbers are really really good. And it's true, his batting averages were sick.

At 21 in the SAL: 319/.377/.448 in Kannapolis which is a neutral park.
At 22 in the Car: 333/.431/.477 in Winston-Salem, which Syzm has as a hitters park, but only for HR hitters. That doesn't affect Reed much.

He then moved to AA that year, Birmingham of the Southern League for 240 ABs and hit: .409/.474/.591 Birmingham is a pitchers park, but only because it deflates homers, a lot, so that shouldn't color our perceptions of that line much either.

At 23 he spent the first part of the year in the IL, hitting a solid 275/.357/.420 in Charlotte, which was a neutral park but may underrate Reed a bit because Charlotte depresses doubles and increases homers, hurting Reed slightly.

He then was traded to Seattle and hit .305/.366/.455 in Tacoma, an extreme pitcher's park by the standards of the PCL. Tacoma decreases hits by a solid amount, so his average would have been a bit higher in a neutral PCL park.

Reed then killed the ball in Seattle that year over 60 ABs.

A couple general points: While Reed is very average dependant, he still walks a good amount (1/10 PAs in the minors, a bit better than that actually, maybe about 1/9 PAs)

He can really hit for average. His career minor league line: .327/.401/.478

There was a reason that he was a really great prospect: he can hit for average, he walks enough, he has enough doubles pop, and he can play good centerfield D.

I spent a bit of time above defending Clement, and I think it's legit. However, Jeremy Reed was a very good prospect in 2004, he had a bit of an off year last year, but his numbers were hurt by his park quite a bit. I'm excited to see the ZiPS on him, cause it's probably pretty solid. I think you deal Clement for him pretty quickly, and maybe even sweeten it up to get him.

That would be a solid young core: Marte, Reed, The Iowan Pedro (Pedro-IA), Papelbon, Lester, Hansen...annnnnd stop salivating now.

I'm with JoelW on the attractiveness of Reed. Watching him patrol CF for the next few years would making parting with J.D. much, much easier on my psyche.

I have a very dim view of Bavasi's intelligence, but I still find it hard to believe he's shopping him, especially for a SP who's fairly well compensated, relative to his productivity.

The Iowan Pedro (Pedro-IA)

Don't ever do that again. Please.

it's better than f'ing Petunia.

it's better than f'ing Petunia.

wrong.

well, i guess i'm wrong.

An anagram for Dustin Pedroia is Tepid Dinosaur, as is Diet Saudi Porn.


That is all.

Much to Chris' dismay, Sordid Petunia is, too.

He's only Sordid Petunia if he goes 0 for 4 and makes 3 errors in a key game. Otherwise he's Good Petunia!

On the subject of dealing Clement, BProsp weighed in with this state today:

STAT OF THE DAY

Top 5 2005 AL Starters That Received The Least Help, by Pen Support

Player, Team, Beq. Rnrs, BEQ_R, Pen Support

Matt Clement, BOS, 19, 10, 5.070
Gil Meche, SEA, 18, 11, 5.021
Nate Robertson, DET, 17, 10, 4.979
Joaquin Benoit, TEX, 8, 5, 3.232
Randy Johnson, NYA, 8, 6, 3.035

FWIW.

Eric Van chimed in about how f'd in the a he was by the pen. It's why his FIPS is quite good dispite a pretty solid DER behind him. It's part of why I think he was actually pretty solid last year. I still get Jeremy Reed in 2 seconds for him if I can.

Great thread. I'm going to put up a new one about Damon vs. other CF prospects.

Diet Saudi Porn

Seriously, I'm sticking with this.

If Andy Marte's middle initial were N (rather than M) he could be anagrammed to Trade Manny.

And now, to bed.

via Rotoworld:

"Julian Tavarez and the Red Sox have agreed to a two-year deal with a vesting option, according to FOXSports.com's Ken Rosenthal."

"This comes as quite a surprise. No financial terms yet, but Tavarez will likely to command at least $4 million per season. His addition might mean that Guillermo Mota will be moved in a deal for a center fielder or a shortstop."

According to some folks on SoSH, Tavarez was not offered arbitration. So this looks like a good signing. While bullpen depth is mandatory, it also provides more flexibility with regard to trading Wells/Arroyo/Clement, with Papelbon possibly joining the rotation. Someone on SoSH speculated it might reflect badly on Foulke's health, but I don't think there's enough here to suggest that.

rosenthal: article man, article man/better than triangle man

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/5239404

btw, in his chat on espn today, Jim Callis called Jon Lester "the second best lefty in the minors, after the Twins Liriano."

"btw, in his chat on espn today, Jim Callis called Jon Lester "the second best lefty in the minors, after the Twins Liriano."

And won't Liriano start the season in the majors? This bolster someone's claim (kevin's?) that Lester will start the season as the best lefty in the minors. Of course, that sort of "title" really only means anything if you're going to trade him (since it might burnish his image a little), which we all hope the Sox won't do.

someone's claim (kevin's?)

I think that was Temple.

I think Kevin claimed that Pedroia will be the best SS, and the best LHP, in the minors.

I think Kevin claimed that Pedroia will be the best SS, and the best LHP, in the minors.

I shouldn't encourage you, but that made me laugh.

levski with some positive news. that's more like it.

I try, Darren.

To revise my list, if the season started today (assuming a 12 man staff)...

<u>Rotation:</u>
Schilling
Beckett
Clement
Wells
Wakefield

<u>Relievers:</u>
Arroyo
Papelbon
Seanez
Foulke
Timilin
Mota
Crougar

<u>AAA?</u>
Hansen
Delcarmen
Van Buren
Dinardo
Alvarez
Lester
Meredith
E Martinez
Vermiliya (sent back or traded)

That is overkill city, but there's really only one case I could make for a guy being "screwed," and that's Dinardo, who's probably ready to be the swingman. Hansen could use 1/2 year at AAA, and so could MDC after being rushed through 3 levels last year. I guess you could also say that Van Buren's about ready for the bigs too.

There are a million interesting questions about this bunch. The one that intrigues me most right now is what to do with Hansen. Do you start him or use him in the pen? If he's starting, do you put him in AA? If he is groomed as a closer, he better be one of the greats for what the Sox paid for him.

"If he is groomed as a closer, he better be one of the greats for what the Sox paid for him."

Didn't he get 4m? That doesn't seem like that much. In the draft, sure, but paying 4m for a major league closer is peanuts-- he doesn't have to be Mariano.

Isn't it spelled Kreuger?

Laying it out like that makes it seem that much clearer that at the very least one of these guys gets traded by Opening Day. I'd be pretty surprised if they start the season with Arroyo in the pen, for one thing-- so I expect they'll trade either him or Wells. And I'd expect a reliever to get dealt, too, though that could wait to mid-season; trade Seanez or Mota or someone and call up Van Buren or MDC.