Dear Red Sox Bullpen,

Please throw first pitch strikes.

Thank you.

what irked me about the sox and betancourt is that after manny had taken him to 8 pitches in the 7th inning, and lowell to lead off the 8th inning goes 10 pitches, drew followed with at the first pitch and weakly popped up to sizemore in shallow center. varitek also swung at the first pitch, fouling it off, and was out in 3 pitches. two of the pitches varitek swung at were low and probably balls. i know these guys aren't known for fouling off pitches, but you'd think they could watch a pitch or two before swinging, knowing as they do that he's just thrown almost 20 pitches to two batters in a row in two different innings.

not sure it was a battle for the ages. it was irritating as hell to watch.

Fortunately for the Tribe, Lopez had nothing at all.

as to that move: lester has to be the better choice here given lopez's splits against lefties. he can't get them out.

Youk's AB was in the 9th, Darren. That was the key AB of the whole game. Betancourt was tiring and Youkilis battled him like hell. Unfortunately he ultimately failed to drive in Ellsbury. Very exasperating. One of these days someone else besides the Big 3 is going to have to step up and drive in a few key runs.

Don't overlook Papi, Manny, and Lowell doing absolutely nothing against Mastny (who's not a very good pitcher) in the 10th. I'm not saying one of them should have homered, but going down 1-2-3 in that situation is pretty disappointing.

Don't overlook Papi, Manny, and Lowell doing absolutely nothing against Mastny (who's not a very good pitcher) in the 10th. I'm not saying one of them should have homered, but going down 1-2-3 in that situation is pretty disappointing.

It was, but I give quite a bit of credit to Mastny. He made big pitches when it counted. He got down 2-0 to Ortiz, but painted the low outside corner with a sinker to go to 2-1, and then just about hit the same spot with the 3-1 pitch for a ground out. The pitch Manny flew out on was perfectly located too.

Should Papelbon have pitched a 3rd inning?

I'd much rather lose with Gagne rather than 3IP Papelbon (remember Joe Nathan 2004?)

I suspect if it was an elimination game, Papelbon would have been out there for another inning.

But 2 innings from him is plenty. He did his job, the rest of the team didn't step up.

A week or so back there was an interview in the Globe with the Rangers' catcher Laird who said that Gagne worked best when he started hitters off with curves and then threw mostly changeups. I'm not sure if Varitek has called that particular pattern of pitches for Gagne yet this season. He started Blake off with a curve and after a changeup and fastball got him on a fastball. After that, the wisest, most brilliant, smartest, most sagacious catcher in MLB history went back to the mostly fastball pattern that hasn't worked once.

Oh, and what a spectacular waste of space Javier Lopez is. He must be removed from the roster asap. His widely varying repertoire of straight slow pitch knee high followed by straight slow pitch knee high followed, almost whimsically, by straight slow pitch knee high is somehow failing to baffle hitters.

When you're a lefty and you can't retire the corpse of Trot Nixon, you should probably just be taken behind the woodshed and shot.

It was an entertaining game. When the big three went down in order in the 10th it was pretty obvious to me we were done. Gagne and Lopez do not deserve roster spots over Tavarez and, say, anyone else. Boy, it would have been sweet to have a Clay Buchholz available at that point (though I defer to the team's judgment in leaving him off the roster).

So far I think there is an obvious split on offense. Six of our guys are battling every at bat, almost never swinging at pitches out of the zone, etc. Two of our guys just seem to have no clue what the strike zone is -- Pedroia and Tek (and I'm surprised to be saying that about Pedroia, but he's flailed at a lot of bad pitches). And then there's Drew, who seems to have a pretty good eye but no ability to hit the ball hard. He breaks bats as if he were facing Mariano Rivera every time.

Rough, you forgot the knee high slow pitch thrown behind a RHB for Lopez. That was something new last night.

Lopez is a horrible pitcher who has nothing close to major league talent. He has no business taking up a roster spot on any major league club. He's a LOOGY who can't retire LHB and cannot throw strikes either, quite the combination. The Sox would have been better off activating Dave McCarty and using him to pitch.

I'm pretty sure Lopez, Gagne, Drew, Varitek, Pedroia, and Lugo are hurt. How else could they be struggling on the big stage? And the reason Papi didn't run out his ground ball is because he's hurting also. Hopefully he'll recover.

Here's hoping Wake throws a gem in Game 4. Unless he's injured, of course. I will honor km's request and stay out of Chatter in Game 4 until Wake is no longer in the ballgame, just to see what happens. I'm not superstitous, by my friend km is, so I'll do it this one time.

MDC's leadoff BB was killer, and deserves mention too.

not sure it was a battle for the ages.

Well, I certainly aged significantly watching it (though I was rooting for Cleveland). Can't believe it only lasted 5+ hours; I swear I grew 2 days' stubble watching it.

Before everyone gets too down on Lopez and Gagne, remember that they aren't supposed to be very good, given that they are the last two guys on the pitching staff.

If I'm looking for a goat in this game, it's Schilling, who just stunk.

True enough. Maybe he's hurt?

Unfortunately he ultimately failed to drive in Ellsbury.

You mean that in a nice way, right? Because Youkilis hit that ball pretty good. It just didn't fall in.

Tough loss to a good team. Nice to see them get to Carmona, anyway. Would have loved to leave Boston up two, and would have been nice to see Schilling succeed, but neither of Cleveland's aces looks fearsome right now. So even though the Indians stole one at Fenway, I think Sox fans can remain cautiously optimistic.

Also I agree with Toby. Maybe the FO bungled the last spot or two on the roster, but few if any teams are going to be good down to the last couple of guys in the bullpen. Usually, when you have to use those guys, you lose. And they did. One of Ortiz, Manny, or Lowell needed to end it in the 10th. But even good hitters usually fail.

Thank you tfbg9. I think a reasonable expectation would be 7IP/3ER, and if the Sox get that against Byrd it's not Wake's fault if they don't win.

If I'm looking for a goat in this game, it's Schilling, who just stunk.
...
True enough. Maybe he's hurt?

Um, so you're saying that Schilling choked? This seems to be the reductio ad absurdum of your view, not the opposing one. Every single player who has performed below expectations in any one of the five postseason games did so because of a lack of mental toughness.

Both Schilling and Carmona were worked over very thoroughly by good lineups. I agree with the sentiment above about Cleveland's big 2. We worked heaps of walks off of both of them and I think that will continue. Yes, the inning against Mastny was frustrating as we didn't seem quite as patient, but he did hit his spots. As stated above, Gagne and Lopez are the last 2 guys on the roster, so once Paps was done and Gagne came out, I reckoned we'd lose anyway. Surely you all didn't expect to sweep the series? I like the pitching matchups in the next two games, but I'm not sure if Schilling can be overly effect against the Indians lineup if he's required again. The Angels had 2 guys who could hit the ball out and both were hurt. The Indians lineup has 7 guys who can park one and that will always be the issue when Schilling is pitching against them.
Oh, and if we lose game 3, do you bring Beckett back for game 4?

When you're a lefty and you can't retire the corpse of Trot Nixon, you should probably just be taken behind the woodshed and shot.

"Lopez" rhymes with "AIDS" in Mandarin.

And of course, people were upset, yaddi yaddi yadda

I'm sure the 11th inning made it obvious to everyone.

This team needs Curt Leskanic.

I wouldn't say I expected to sweep, but tomorrow is crucial. And I can't say I'm all that confident in Dice-K at the moment either.

I'd blame Schilling for forcing Tito to use up the pen so early, but I honestly didn't expect another performance like the ALDS Game 3. The Indians have a way better lineup.

Um, so you're saying that Schilling choked?

No, I think Gagne did. Schilling claims he put the 3 run HR pitch right where he wanted to, and that Jhonny just went and got it with the bat.

But back to Gagne. You guys seem to think he's hurt. Hell, maybe its a combination of injury/lack of confidence?

Oh, and if we lose game 3, do you bring Beckett back for game 4?

No, and they won't.

Here's my hypothesis. Gagne is hurt. He can't say it or else he'd lose Boras' ability to connive some schmo owner into a 3 year/$24 million contract to close (Philadelphia??).

But here's the rub--I think Boston KNOWS Gagne's hurt... but they aren't saying it publicly because they don't want to call a would-be FA on the fact that he's hurt, thereby costing him (and Boras) millions... which might lead to Boras (or others) steering FAs away from Boston, etc.

I think I'm starting to grasp that Boston's thinking may be that dealing with Boras/Boras clients is a market inefficiency it can exploit, simply because it has the money to do so. Now I'm not saying this is a smart play by any means, but I think this may be the reasoning behind all the strange Boras-related goings-on the past year or so... and of course [shudder] it may mean they're going to make a push for A-Rod.

All that said, I want Gagne buried and for him to never pitch again in a Red Sox uniform. He's been a disgrace since day 1 and I wish him nothing but ill will.

Textbook Editor, your theory would make sense in a world where teams didn't insist on giving a possibly-injured free agent a physical before giving him big money.

Also, it would probably be better for him in the long run if he could chalk this season up to not being healthy, rather than having mysteriously lost his pitching prowess for reasons that are not related to injuries and therefore will not be cured by him being healed.

Ah, but often teams agree to a deal BEFORE the physical, and while it is contingent upon a physical, only rarely has a failed physical torpedoed a FA deal. (Though, to be fair to Philly, I think they cancelled a deal for a reliever last off season for a failed physical.)

I have to believe there is a conspiracy at work here, because the alternative is that Theo & Tito are insane and continue to run Gagne out there, place him on the playoff roster over the far more useful Julian Tavarez (yes, that's right.... I was LONGING FOR JULIAN TAVAREZ (?!?) in the 11th inning last night as Gagne imploded with all the predictability of the sun rising)), etc. Because I do not wish to think these two men completely ####### insane, I choose to think there must be some greater forces at work that can explain why Eric Gagne continues to exist. Frankly, I am awfully surprised some Red Sox fan did not try to light him on fire as he fled the scene of his latest crime last night... but perhaps they too are numbed to the pain that is Eric Gagne's continued employment.

(Though, to be fair to Philly, I think they cancelled a deal for a reliever last off season for a failed physical.)

That was Borowski. Which turned out to be the wrong move.

Meanwhile...Freddy Garcia, enough said. But I certainly hope they would have been a little more careful about seeing that Garcia was healthy if they were going to be stuck with him for more than one season.

Javy Lopez looked significantly more incompetent out there than Gagne did, from what I could tell. And the decision to bring him in specifically to face Nixon...even though he has a reverse platoon split?!?!?!?!?!?!?

He does not have return platoon split for his career.

Frankly, I am awfully surprised some Red Sox fan did not try to light him on fire as he fled the scene of his latest crime last night... but perhaps they too are numbed to the pain that is Eric Gagne's continued employment.

I've said this before: us, the Red Sox fanbase, has no balls.

Our friends with the Pakistani Cricket team would have taken care of F'ing business

Not to defend the choice (since a PH was available), but even if Javy has a permanent reverse platoon split, wouldn't Trot Nixon's historic ineptitude against lefties override it?

Oh, and if we lose game 3, do you bring Beckett back for game 4?

For me, the temptation to bring Beckett back on short rest for Game 4 is based not so much on a hypothetical Game 3 loss as it is on (a) his low pitch count in Game 1 and (b) the TV schedule that sets up the Game 4 starter to go again in a potential Game 7 on full rest. This series has all the makings of going right down to the wire, and I would very much like Beckett to pitch 3 times if it comes to that.

By the way, it's not too late to get your very own Eric Gagne Red Sox t-shirt from MLB.com, only $22.99!

But back to Gagne. You guys seem to think he's hurt. Hell, maybe its a combination of injury/lack of confidence?

It could just as easily be overconfidence: thinking he can still use pitches and locations he had so much success using before blowing out his arm. But which in fact he doesn't quite have the stuff to exploit as frequently as he might think. And of course he (and a lot of other people) could have been fooled into even more overconfidence about his stuff by his limited run of success in the first half, before he was shut down for the week before the trade deadline.

You have about as much evidence to make the same contradictory assertions about Schilling, who despite what he said last night missed his target badly on the pitch to Peralta, as Remy and Eckersley were quick to point out on the postgame show, right after he claimed in the press room to have put the pitch where he wanted. Maybe Schilling's balls shrank into his bladder and he got afraid of hanging a splitter, so he tried to sneak through a 4-seamer even though it went against his gameplan, while knowing all the time the chances of it working were low. Which might have also caused him to lie to himself and the media about it afterward. Or maybe he was just a little too impressed with his self-transformation from Walter Johnson type to Paul Byrd type, and mistakenly thought he could throw that mediocre velocity fastball precisely where he wanted. Or maybe it was one when he toed the rubber on that pitch, and the other in the middle of his motion toward the plate. We'll never know.

The problem with constantly citing fear as the central reason for the failures of an ever-increasing number of very, very different individuals (both in personality and talents), is that none of us has a ####### clue most of the time what goes on in these guys' heads or hearts or guts or sacks or whatever other organ or appendage we want to cite, apart from the barely useful partial views we might get from highly expressive types like Derek Lowe or the Weaver brothers. Human emotions and human psychology are incredibly complex and frequently contradictory, and can vary wildly from moment to moment (or pitch to pitch) and from person to person.

Which is why, when it comes to someone with Gagne's injury history—not to mention supporting facts like the shutdown week before getting traded, and the shutdown week again last month—the least speculative conclusion to draw is that he's hurt.

Did Schilling really claim he made a good pitch to Peralta? That effing thing was a meatball.

even though he has a reverse platoon split?!?!?!?!?!?!?

What Miko said. There isn't 1/10th enough data from this year to say that Lopez definitively has a reverse platoon split. Especially as a lefty sidearmer - you're better off assuming he has whatever the average platoon split is for all LHP vs. LHB than you are looking at his single season stats.

I feel good about facing Westbook and Byrd the next two days.

I'm very very worried about the next two days. Dice has been shaky, and this line-up is way more patient than the Angels. If he nibbles again, we lose. Who knows what you get out of wakefield, and Byrd seems the type to play the unsung hero role.

Javy Lopez looked significantly more incompetent out there than Gagne did, from what I could tell.

At least Gagne got someone out.

Really, there are four big issues with the game on Saturday, two of which happened earlier but likely affected the decision-making in the game.

The first was Schilling not making it through 5. That eventually forced 6+ IP from the bullpen. (Though if Schilling were on, it would've been a 9-inning game instead of 11.) The circumstances of the game at the time necessitated someone good taking the mound to get out of Schilling's mess, and that was MDC.

The second was Gagne being crap for Boston since he was acquired. If not for that, he wouldn't have been pulled so quickly after a K, a hit, and a walk. Whether he would've been worse than Lopez was, we won't know because of the relatively quick hook. But had he had any success during the regular season there's no way that Gagne gets pulled there.

The third was the fading of Matsuzaka down the stretch. Whether the fade was health related or not doesn't matter; it's clear to me, though, that the reason Jon Lester is on the roster is to fill in should Matsuzaka falter. I believe that's the reason Lester was the last man in the pen, because using him for (potentially) several innings to hold a tie means making him unavailable to pitch an extended outing in game 3 should Matsuzaka not be able to pitch deep.

The fourth was that Lopez had warmed three separate times before coming in to the game. I'm not sure how much that moved him beyond his usual level of ineffectiveness, but it wouldn't surprise me Francona thought it might, seeing as he - despite his apparent man-crush on Lopez during the season - thought Gagne was a better option than Lopez in the 11th. While I do like to have someone warmed up in the postseason early enough to allow a quick hook, this is one of those cases where it can backfire.

OK, enough of that. I like that our lineup knocked their two good starters out early. I do like our chances going forward.

Except nobody's even remotely hinting he's hurt, nobody with the team. Which swings the speculation meter back towards you again. Well McCarver.

McCarver, and two internet guys--Chip and MCoA.

I'm pretty sure they're going to start Beckett in Game 4. It's just a hunch. I'm guessing Beckett right now is begging to start a Game 4.

That said, though, if the goal is to win the World Series, then having Beckett to start Game 1 of the World Series--which he couldn't do if he started Game 4 unless the Sox won in 5 or 6 games--would be an important goal. Of course, with no extra off day for the WS, Beckett on normal rest would pitch Games 1 & 5, and then presumably be on call for emergency work out of the bullpen in a Game 6 or 7, so regardless of his use in the ALCS he's likely to only start 2 games in the WS unless he were to pitch Game 1, Game 4 on short rest, and then Game 7 on short rest again--something I don't see the Red Sox doing.

What is really critically important from here on out is that starters give the team at least 6 innings a start, because when this doesn't happen the chances of an 11th inning rolling around with Gagne/Lopez the last arms left in the bullpen grow exponentially. Lopez and Gagne are essentially run-allowing machines right now and need to be avoided at all costs. Lester I think may have just been rusty with the layoff and I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt.

I do not like how the Sox have arranged the final 2 spots in the bullpen for the postseason--I mean I suppose everyone has weak guys as the last two arms out of the pen, but they had something like 6 weeks to figure this out and we're left with Lopez and Gagne, both of whom any half-awake Sox fan could have told you were worthless 6 weeks ago.

I'll say this as well--facing the Rockies scares the hell out of me, and not just because you may see Wakefield (and perhaps Matsusaka!) start a game in Denver in 35 degree weather with snow squalls.

It's sad how we miss Tavarez and/or Snyder. It's also massive BS that Craig breslow did not pitch ONCE during September. We coudln't have given him ONE INNING??

Wok, I am with you. Tavarez/Snyder > Gagne/Lopez

But once you decide you NEED a LHP out of the pen, and that Lester is your long man, then you're kind of forced to carry Lopez. But then this is the kind of thing they had 2-3 months to plan for specifically for the postseason... and they did nothing. Instead the corpse of JC Romero comes back to life in Philly and makes them look like idiots for picking Lopez over him.

One depressing thing about Lopez is that I thought if anyone could see through the whole LOOGY thing it would be the Red Sox FO... but I guess not.

Tito saying they expected Michaels to PH for Nixon once Lopez was put in the game is pretty funny... does he think the Tribe has no info at all on Lopez's massive reverse platoon split this year?

I wonder at what point the Lopez reverse platoon split becomes something the Red Sox FO acknowledges as real and worth noting, instead of reflexively using him in LOOGY situations again and again...

One depressing thing about Lopez is that I thought if anyone could see through the whole LOOGY thing it would be the Red Sox FO... but I guess not.

MGL and Tango, in The Book, not only didn't "see through" the notion of the LOOGY, but solidly endorsed it.

Also, Lopez's reverse platoon split is in a tiny sample, does not persist in previous seasons or the minor leagues, and I've seen no reason to think, from watching him pitch, that his stuff is easier for lefties to hit. There's never been a sinker/slider submariner in history who had a real reverse platoon split, and I see no reason to think Lopez is the first.

He's not really a submariner though, he's more sidearm than submarine. He needs to go lower

He needs to go lower

He needs to throw strikes before he worries about arm angle.

MCoA, et al.--I should have said "see though the whole LOOGY thing AS IT PERTAINS TO LOPEZ." I'm not against LOOGYism, I just am against it in the form of "Javier Lopez, LOOGY."

The sample may be tiny, but it is there, and it's been there all year. At some point you have to say something that has lasted all year--the present--is worth more than what has happened in the past. I'm not saying I know what that point is, but something must be going on to have caused it to be the case for all of 2007.

If a LOOGY is what loses this team the ALCS, I would be very surprised, but at the same time if you're Theo E. you can't just wake up on October 1st and assume Lopez's platoon splits are going to go back to normal now that the leaves are falling and the playoffs are here. There were warning bells all over Lopez and Gagne for at least the last 6 weeks of the season (for Gagne since the day he came to town), and yet the Red Sox seem to think they're both just going to turn it around--that, yes, the sample size for both is too small, and that (presumably) they are "due" to have a good streak. I just think this is wishful thinking on a lot of people's parts.

What worries me more now is that we're going to trod down this same worn out path with Gagne/Lopez should we get to the WS. The Coors games in the WS could be slugfests and for those kinds of games I would much, much rather have Snyder/Tavarez at my disposal than Gagne/Lopez... So I suppose I am advocating changes for the WS roster, but this has almost not chance of happening, even though it's in the WS (should we get there) that I fear Gagne/Lopez will do their worst damage.

Someone mentioned Curt Leskanic above. When Gagne came in that's immediately what sprung to my mind... that when Leskanic came in the game in the 2004 ALCS I said to myself, "here's where we lose it," only to be happily wrong... Saturday night I thought "Well, maybe Gagne will pull a Leskanic on us and we'll all go to sleep happy." But I suppose you can only luck out once like that...

leskanic's 2004 regular season era with the red sox: 3.58
gagne's 2007 regular season era with the red sox: 6.75

Number of Leskanic's relatives in Katrina and the Waves: 1
Number of Gagme's relatives in Katrina and the Waves: 0

Number of midges Wok is training to invade the away bullpen at Jacobs Field and carry off and devour Eric Gagne: 94,836

I have no idea what to expect from Dice-K tonight. The guy comes with a good big game reputation, and he's had longer rest, so on one hand I'm optimistic, but on the other I can see him getting eaten alive by Travis Hafner.

I like Dice-K's chances tonight. It won't be pretty, but I think we'll get 6-7 runs and he'll leak 3-4 over 6 or 7 innings. But I reckon he'll go 6 or more which will be the key. Time to break out the Gyroball!!

Wrong Hugh! Wrong wrong wrong!!!