Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Sox Therapy > Discussion
Sox Therapy
— Where Thinking Red Sox Fans Obsess about the Sox

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Dan Posted: October 19, 2008 at 04:30 AM (#2987811)
One scary thing: Papelbon does not look like his normal dominant self. He faked it pretty well but I’m concerned.

He looked off, but he only threw 9 pitches so hopefully he'll have more in the tank for tomorrow. Honestly though my thought as I watched him throw 91-92 MPH fastballs to pinpoint spots and beat 3 hitters was that he really, really should be a starting pitcher. If he can locate that well while pacing himself and still blow guys away, while he has a couple decent off speed pitches, he's kind of wasted in the bullpen. Not that I don't appreciate having a shutdown closer and all, but still.
   2. Dan Posted: October 19, 2008 at 04:31 AM (#2987813)
The other big point about this game is that it really should not have been a close game. The Red Sox only knocked in 4 of 18 baserunners, which has been somewhat of a theme for this series. This time it was enough to win, but the hitters really aren't hitting for #### with runners on.
   3. Smiling Joe Hesketh Posted: October 19, 2008 at 04:33 AM (#2987815)
Paps was clearly gassed. He mentioned being gassed after Game 5 as well.

Sox are gonna have a tired pen for tomorrow night. Lester may well be allowed to throw 130+ pitches to try to get through 7 or 8 innings.
   4. Justin T is going to crush some tacos Thursday Posted: October 19, 2008 at 04:39 AM (#2987819)
I'm not trying any kind of reverse jinx here or anything, merely stating a fact: There is no way, no freaking way, that the Rays win tomorrow. They have no shot to make it through nine innings without a crucial Bartlett throwaway or something chokish to cost them the game even if they are competitive the rest of the time. Which I don't expect them to be. If Beckett, who by giving up a homer to Bartlett on a 1-2 count demonstrated that he still didn't have it, could give up 2 runs in 5 innings, then Lester is in line for his second no-hitter of the year.
   5. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: October 19, 2008 at 04:39 AM (#2987820)
Papelbon has now pitched 24 innings in the post season, half as many as Mariano Rivera. He has yet to give up a run of his own, and has let 1 inherited runner score. Dude has a 0.00 ERA, 21 K's, and has a WHIP of .667. I'll worry about him when he actually screws up.
   6. Chip Posted: October 19, 2008 at 04:41 AM (#2987821)
Two inherited runners scored last night.
   7. Enrico Pallazzo Posted: October 19, 2008 at 04:43 AM (#2987822)
This team bottles the mind. I've never seen momentum shifted so much and in so many different ways. Dave Roberts/Bill Mueller/Papi heroics, Josh Beckett dominance, and amazing 8-run comebacks.

I'm with scott. Papelbon isn't a big worry to me. Though the more and more scoreless innings he throws can't help but make you feel he's due...POSITIVE THOUGHTS!
   8. JB H Posted: October 19, 2008 at 04:47 AM (#2987824)
I can't believe this team. If we win the world series, I think the Sox may be the least likely champs in major sports history. Worse than 1000-1 underdogs at the lowest point.

I just put $1,000 on Tampa tomorrow as an emotional hedge. I'm sick, I know.
   9. John DiFool2 Posted: October 19, 2008 at 05:00 AM (#2987826)
Both pens are at the ends of their respective ropes-it's a long season and an even longer (relatively speaking of course) postseason, even with the bogus off-days.

Even if they continue to do this for another 80 years I will still be amazed each time they do one of these comebacks.
   10. villageidiom Posted: October 19, 2008 at 05:09 AM (#2987829)
This team bottles the mind.
I could have a bottle in front of me AND a frontal lobotomy, all in one. That's like killing two birds with one stove.
   11. NJ in DC (Now with Wife!) Posted: October 19, 2008 at 05:14 AM (#2987830)
Papelbon has now pitched 24 innings in the post season, half as many as Mariano Rivera. He has yet to give up a run of his own, and has let 1 inherited runner score. Dude has a 0.00 ERA, 21 K's, and has a WHIP of .667. I'll worry about him when he actually screws up.

If by 1/2 you mean 1/5, then yes.
   12. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: October 19, 2008 at 05:21 AM (#2987832)
If by 1/2 you mean 1/5, then yes.


i misread Mo's mlb.com page. my bad. Seemed like very few.
   13. konaforever Posted: October 19, 2008 at 05:53 AM (#2987835)
   14. konaforever Posted: October 19, 2008 at 05:56 AM (#2987838)
http://www.boston.com/sports/columnists/massarotti/2008/10/papelbon_sore_but_steady.html

Papelbon is definitely gassed. Not sure he can go tomorrow or what he has left.
   15. Walks Clog Up the Bases Posted: October 19, 2008 at 06:18 AM (#2987844)
Red Sox fans sure lead a charmed existence these days. There was a lot of quitting going on a few days ago, but I guess I can't fault a degree of negativity considering the way the series was going.

I doubt the Rays win tomorrow and at that point, I think we'll have to examine whether this is the biggest postseason collapse in baseball history. It's easy to dub the 2004 ALCS with that honor because of the 3-0 scenario. But in this situation, you had a Rays team that looked absolutely dominant. They had the 3-1 lead in the series and were within seven outs of moving to the World Series. The cherry on top here is the SEVEN-run lead the Rays had with two outs in the seventh. They basically only needed to stay the course and not #### their pants and they were in the World Series.

They've #### their pants and they suddenly look like a team that hasn't been here before. They haven't, and that coupled with the emotional devastation of being so close to the World Series and now facing the very real possibility they're done after tomorrow, is nothing but good for the Sox.

I've got no desire to see another Red Sox World Series win. I know that concept sounds insane to Red Sox fans, but two over three years is plenty for me.
   16. ekogan Posted: October 19, 2008 at 06:36 AM (#2987847)
According to Vegas Watch, in 2004, the Red Sox at their worst point (when Rivera was pitching the 9th in game 4) had a 1.5% chance to come back.
In 2007, the worst chance the Sox had was 18.1% before game 5.

This year, Fangraphs said that the worst win expectancy the Sox had in game 5 was .07% just after Upton drove in the last TB runs.
According to Vegas Watch, the betting lines before tonight's game gave the Sox a 23.5% chance of advancing to the WS.
Thus, if IF (knock on wood) the Red Sox win game 7 they will have completed a .07%*23.5% = 0.016% chance

This year's potential comeback would be a 100 times less likely than 2004's!!!!!
   17. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: October 19, 2008 at 10:44 AM (#2987860)
The Rays are starting to make mistakes. This is why we won tonight. The blown hit and run was HUGE. We didn't play that good, but that one error by the opposition was huge.
   18. tfbg9 Posted: October 19, 2008 at 11:51 AM (#2987861)
I just put $1,000 on Tampa tomorrow as an emotional hedge. I'm sick, I know.


I bet $2000 on the Cards in the 2004 WS.
   19. Joe Bivens, Minor Genius Posted: October 19, 2008 at 01:30 PM (#2987872)
but two over three years is plenty for me.

It was 2 out of 4.

I bet $2000 on the Cards in the 2004 WS.

Shame on you.
   20. Joe Bivens, Minor Genius Posted: October 19, 2008 at 01:51 PM (#2987879)
The Rays have a good pitcher going tonight, but the looks on their faces during the second half of that game last night were the looks of defeat. For all the mocking of "veteran leadership" that goes on here, we have a pretty good example of how it trumps inexperience. The Rays can still win, but their offensive approach last night puzzling. They looked fooled by almost everything. They've looked much better.

If they lose, you have to wonder how this will affect attendance there next year. I would love to see that area support that team. I'd like to see them average 30k a game. Will their fans give up on them if they lose tonight?
   21. Mister High Standards Posted: October 19, 2008 at 02:02 PM (#2987887)
No one should ever mock veteran leadership win/lose or draw.
   22. ekogan Posted: October 19, 2008 at 02:07 PM (#2987891)
For all the mocking of "veteran leadership" that goes on here, we have a pretty good example of how it trumps inexperience.

The Yankees in 2004 had veteran leadership and they still choked. Did they seem defeated in Game 7 at least?

It does seem that the Red Sox have some special character, but veteran-ness is not a complete explanation.
   23. dave h Posted: October 19, 2008 at 02:17 PM (#2987896)
Yeah, I think the main thing is not that they improve when they're down, but just that they keep the same approach and don't just mail it in. Even down 7 runs they'll work a walk, though to us it almost seems pointless. Each guy individually just keeps doing the job he would always do. Drew is a good example of this. He's supposed to hit, and he approaches each at bat the same way, and if he doesn't get a hit he understands that's part of it, and if he does then great. I think some of this has to be a credit to the players, and given that it's happened over a long timespan (as far as roster turnover is concerned) Francona needs some credit too.
   24. Joe Bivens, Minor Genius Posted: October 19, 2008 at 02:27 PM (#2987904)
The Yankees in 2004 had veteran leadership and they still choked. Did they seem defeated in Game 7 at least?

The 2004 Red Sox were perennial contenders. Granted, they hadn't won anything up until that point, but they were a veteran team, like the Yankees, and certainly more so than the Rays are today.
   25. Joe Bivens, Minor Genius Posted: October 19, 2008 at 02:32 PM (#2987905)
For the future, I like Tampa's lineup over today's Red Sox, for the most part. I'd take Upton and Crawford over Ellsbury and Bay. I'd take Longoria over any Red Sox 3rd baseman. Pena-Youk is about even. Navarro over Varitek. Shields-Kazmir-Garza vs Beckett-Lester-DiceK is close. Papelbon over whoever they decide their closer will be. Lowrie over Bartlett. I'd still take Ortiz over Aybar for another year or two or three.

But today, I'll take the Sox.
   26. ekogan Posted: October 19, 2008 at 02:58 PM (#2987912)
Gross over Drew?
Iwamura over Pedroia?
   27. Fancy Pants Handles lap changes with class Posted: October 19, 2008 at 04:00 PM (#2987931)
It's:

Longoria-Youk
Pena-Teixeira

Well maybe, maybe not. But the point is it's far more likely that the Sox go out and spend to add big pieces than the Rays...
   28. Darren Posted: October 19, 2008 at 04:00 PM (#2987932)
I still don't see Tampa Bay folding. It should be a good game tonight.
   29. Hugh Jorgan Posted: October 19, 2008 at 10:14 PM (#2988124)
This is late, however...

Yep, I'm an idiot and that is precisely why I don't manage a major league ball club. I would have never, ever trotted Beckett out there for game 6. Lester was my choice. But he did enough to keep us close and I for one am grateful for that.

I should stick to my own advice and trust the FO and manager of this club, very difficult to argue with the recent success.

Oh and nice to have the old 2 inning Oki back.

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
James Kannengieser
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Syndicate

Page rendered in 0.2432 seconds
60 querie(s) executed