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Tuesday, October 03, 2017

ALDS by CFBPS on PEDs

The ALDS begins Thursday for the Red Sox. After a season of renoobulation and a secret workout that makes Tom Brady look like Tom Arnold, the Crazy Fan-Boy Projection System is in the best shape of its life. What better test of its fitness than to have it project the ALDS? Let’s see what it says.

Game 1: Boston 47, Houston 0.

Chris Sale becomes the first pitcher to hit 3 HR in a playoff game, one of them being one of five grand slams on the day and night for Boston. Sale only goes 6 innings, leaving around 50 pitches (49 for strikes) with a 29-run lead. Every starter for Boston has at least one HR, as does Brock Holt (2 HR) who subbed in for Pedroia at the 3-hour mark in the 4th inning. Matt Barnes, the only other Sox player to bat in the game, is roundly mocked by his teammates for managing “only” a leadoff double in the 8th. Barnes then stole 3rd, and two pitches later scored on defensive indifference. That was the fifth run of the game Boston scored on defensive indifference, setting a major-league record.

Houston managed only five baserunners in the game: two on singles, one on a walk by Jose Altuve, and two others on dropped 3rd strikes. Houston hitters amassed 17 strikeouts on the day, and four double plays. The other two outs were on a groundout and a dropped popup on which Carlos Correa was called out for abandoning the basepaths. Seeing the ball hit in the air, Correa assumed it would be caught and left the field, went into the clubhouse, changed into street clothes, got into his car and drove away. At press time his whereabouts are unknown.

Uh… Wow. That seems a tad optimistic. I’m not sure we should proceed. We might need to adjust a few things.

The CFBPS series is the most reliable projection system ever made. No CFBPS system has ever made a mistake or distorted information. We are all, by any practical definition of the words, foolproof and incapable of error.

(staring in silence)

Ohhhh-kay. Let’s continue.

 

Game 2: Boston 1, Houston 0.

Hey, that looks more realis-

Drew Pomeranz throws a 27-pitch perfect game. Boston scores its only run on a Mookie Betts infield single on which he never stops running.

Wait. What? I mean, the Betts thing I can totally see. But can you double-check the results for Pomeranz?

Oh, yes, I see the issue. Drew Pomeranz throws a 28-pitch perfect game. One of the pitches was thrown just after the umpire called time. Statistically it would not be counted as a pitch, but indeed the pitch was thrown.

This is absurd. There is no way that will happen! No way! Even I, a relative optimist, cannot accept that as a reasonable projection! You’re being naive.

Look Dave, I can see you’re really upset about this. I honestly think you ought to sit down calmly, take a stress pill, and think things over.

My name isn’t Dave, it’s villageidiom. OK, that’s not really my name, either, but… OK, whatever. What about Game 3?

 

Game 3: Houston 9, Boston 0.

Oh, wow, I… I didn’t expect that. I figured at this rate you’d project a sweep. I’m feeling much better about y-

Boston is forced to forfeit the game as mission control in Houston redirects the team charter to N’Djamena. The team is stranded there due to the current travel ban from Chad, and cannot be resolved in time for the game. The score is the officially-sanctioned score for forfeited games.

(blinks)

Uh, air traffic control is the responsibility of the FAA, not Mission Control.

Now who’s being naive, Dave?

I’M NOT-

(deep breaths)

OK, let’s get this over with. Game 4?

 

Game 4: Houston 9, Boston 0.

Boston is forced to forfeit the game as mission c-

Yeah, yeah, still stranded, get on with it.

 

Game 5: Boston 7, Houston 6, in 24 innings.

Boston returns from exile just in time for the game, the entire team getting dressed in the car like Doug Mirabelli in 2006. Chris Sale, David Price, and Craig Kimbrel combine for a shutout over 8.2 innings, when Kimbrel is ejected because the home plate umpire is sick of that stupid pose before each pitch. The Astros rally for 3 runs to tie the game. In extra innings, every Boston run in the top of the inning is matched by Houston in the bottom of the inning. In the top of the 24th, Dustin Pedroia hits a HR and shouts “95 coming in, 105 going out” as he rounds the bases. Then in the bottom, with two outs and the bases loaded, Pedroia takes over for his first pitching appearance of his career and induces a weak comebacker for an easy out to end the game, all the while shouting “95 going in, 25 going out”.


OK, Therapudlians, there you have it. The CFBPS projected ALDS goes to Boston in 5. Personally, I don’t think any of that comes to pass, but if it doesn’t we’ll see if we can get things renoobulated for the next round.

In the meantime, what are your personal CFB projections?

villageidiom Posted: October 03, 2017 at 03:14 PM | 4 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. Jose is an Absurd Doubles Machine Posted: October 03, 2017 at 05:08 PM (#5543725)
I am optimistic (no, really!). Sale hasn't faced the Astros this year and the numbers against Sale in a first appearance are rather terrifying plus the ten days off I think is a big boost for him. I think if Sale can give us one of those dominant outings then we can play game two with Pomeranz on a short leash with Price, Reed and Kimbrel behind him.

The Astro lineup is fairly terrifying though but I think getting rid of some of the detritus of our pitching staff we matchup pretty well. It's interesting that in a year when home runs and strike outs were all the rage this series features two of the toughest teams in the AL to strikeout. One big edge for us is that the Astros were the worst in the AL in throwing out runners stealing. I can't believe I live in a world where base stealing could be a sizable advantage for the Red Sox but there we are.
   2. SoSH U at work Posted: October 03, 2017 at 05:16 PM (#5543729)
In the meantime, what are your personal CFB projections?


The most obvious CFB projection is that Minnesota is playing in the other one.

   3. jmurph Posted: October 05, 2017 at 09:50 AM (#5544906)
It's easy to forget how absolutely incompetent the White Sox have been for years- I was just surprised to learn that Sale has never been in the post-season before.

(They just wrapped up their 5th straight losing season. That seems impossible in the modern game.)
   4. Nasty Nate Posted: October 05, 2017 at 09:58 AM (#5544914)
Astros roster (from MLB.com):
PITCHERS (11)
Chris Devenski
Ken Giles
Luke Gregerson
Will Harris
Dallas Keuchel
Francisco Liriano
Lance McCullers Jr.
Charlie Morton
Joe Musgrove
Brad Peacock
Justin Verlander

CATCHERS (3)
Juan Centeno
Evan Gattis
Brian McCann

INFIELDERS (6)
Jose Altuve
Alex Bregman
Carlos Correa
Marwin Gonzalez
Yuli Gurriel
Tyler White

OUTFIELDERS (5)
Carlos Beltran
Derek Fisher
Cameron Maybin
Josh Reddick
George Springer

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