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1. Joel W Posted: July 11, 2011 at 08:14 PM (#3874557)I say stand pat.
I can't see why the Twins would let go of 1.5 years at that price without a good return.
I don't really think the Red Sox will be taking on any significant players this year. Aren't they already bumped up pretty close to the luxury tax threshold?
The farm needs to be grown some more; Gonzo did not come cheaply.
Unrelated note-is it just me, or does Kevin Youlkis get dinged-the-hell-up every damn game? I've never seen the likes of it.
yeah, i fear he's due to tail off in the 2nd half. it wasn't until his 3rd full season that he figured out how to pace himself while playing 1st. i have a feeling that playing a harder position will take its toll.
I know Reddick isn't going to flirt with .400 and an 1100 OPS all year, but barring an injury I don't see why you trade anything of value for Ethier right now.
They do, and they are-his name is Weiland (which is to say, he appears as "major league ready" as just about any top minor league starter does, with TINSTAAPP etc. applying).
To be fair, maybe they meant "National-League Ready."
I agree with M: the Sox apparently could use another starter for the rotation and/or another lefty reliever. Why is Doubront not being used to fill one of these roles? He was pretty passable last year and looks to have decent numbers this year. Is he not all the way back yet?
They have scored 19% more runs than an average team playing half the season at Fenway. The 2003 record setting offense scored 16% more.
Some numbers, adjusted to match 2007 offense levels for the Red Sox (as per bbref):
Ellsbury .336/.400/.522
Pedroia .306/.420/.473
Gonzalez .378/.439/.630
Youkilis .304/.422/.541
Ortiz .326/.416/.617
(hijack over)
Those guys have been so amazing that they have made up for the dreck the Sox have gotten from their corner OF: Drew, Crawford, McDonald, and Cameron.
.233/.294/.367 combined from LF and RF this year! It's incredible.
A shame neither Reddick nor Drew are righthanded.
267/337/471 for Salty, 269/355/455 for Tek (better than he hit in actual 2007)
Despite this, and riffing off of Joe, the Red Sox have a wRC+ of 121. The 2007 Yankees, who scored 968 runs, had a wRC+ of 120, as did the 2003 Red Sox. So through half a season the Red Sox are hitting better than any team in the past decade. Also, Red Sox position players are on pace (assuming no regression, classic 'pace' concept) to have as many WAR as...the 2001 Seattle Mariners. Like I said, I'm content to stand pat.
I mean, you'd expect some decent to good players. What's made the team special, a historically great offense, is those 5 guys "crushing it." Now bow down to my knowledge!
He's not going to come cheap, even though he's due to become a free agent. His free agency status probably precludes the Red Sox from making a viable offer because it seems doubtful that they'll try to sign him for multiple seasons. In any case, I'm thinking it's going to take at least maybe one really good prospect. To that end, it's good that a lot of position prospects have performed like gangbusters throughout the minors (the pitching prospects on the other hand have been a different story). Brentz, Lavarnway, Chiang and Middlebrooks have all been good or great and someone like Boegarts has been a really pleasant surprise (I assume he's untouchable). I wouldn't be opposed to offering a package of Middlebrooks and either Weiland or Alex Wilson. I don't know if that would be enough. Maybe it's too much for a half-season rental plus 1st round/or supplemental draft pick.
Also, Norcan if we get average from our right fielder, and above average from our left fielder as I expect (Crawford was Crawford after April) I think they'll be excellent. We can also expect some regression from the other guys, but I think they'll remain this good all season more or less, and if that's what we can expect then really looking to upgrade it is asking to upgrade on one of the best lineups of the past 10 years, and I just don't know why they need to give up prospects to do that.
Xander taking BP
Doubront just got sent down to Portland.
I agree. After the first month, they've been good. Catcher has been an awful position for most teams. Salty and Varitek have been an relatively above average duo providing consistent hitting and more power than most teams have gotten out of the position. They've even thrown some guys out too, which, after the last two seasons of traumatizing throwing, has been good to see.
I don't think the Red Sox will go after Beltran and it's probably prudent not to. I just like watching him play and am greedy about making a great unit even greater. If the Red Sox were only an average offense, he'd be an excellent target but he's probably not going to be worth the cost relative to their need. I wouldn't be upset however about using Middlebrooks (whose pitch selection concerns me) or either Wieland or Wilson in a trade if it came to it.
Not because he was bombing in Triple-A. He was sent down because Triple-A is off for their all-star break for a couple of days and they wanted to keep him on his normal schedule.
In any case, I'm not sure he fits as a viable option for a fourth starter if you're talking about the playoff rotation. He would have be outstanding for them to consider him in the playoff rotation and that's very unlikely to happen.
Going back to Garza, while I realize the source was basically just throwing #### at the wall, I think it's an interesting possibility. Obviously he'll cost more than a rental, but he'd be here for 2 more seasons after 2011, so he seems like more of the type of guy this organization would target. I can't remember Theo really paying much for a rental at the deadline; instead it's been guys like Jason Bay and Victor Martinez who have more than a year left on their contracts. Additionally the Cubs probably view Garza as somewhat of a disappointment with his ERA and record, even though his peripherals have actually been great. I don't think that will lower his cost a whole lot, but it might make the Cubs more willing to talk about a deal. I also think that he's a likely target for the Yankees (especially given his past success against the Red Sox), which means he's one less option for them to trade for if the Red Sox acquire him first.
The other thing I noticed is that he looks pretty thick in the hips already. I've read that lots of people think he's ticketed for third base, and I think I can see why.
Really, you thought so? I thought he looked pretty slim in the hips myself and slim overall. He has a good athletic, projectable build for a 18 year old. I think the idea that he might have to move from shortstop comes from him being 6'3 and (I'm not sure about this) not possessing great speed or otherworldly hands. It was possible to see Hanley maintain the athletic chops necessary to stay at short even when he was already big and going to get bigger because he had great speed. I don't know if the same can be said about Bogaerts.
The Bogaert with really big hips is his twin brother Jair, who is a catcher/DH/first basemen on the Red Sox Dominican team. His twin is an inch shorter and outweighs him by 55 listed pounds. They made a cute, I suppose, promotional video together and Xander clearly got the luckier draw.
Xander and Jair
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/al/2011-07-10-3794229625_x.htm
He ought to have been ordered to stay home. Stupid stupid stupid.
Whoops. Here is the corrected link (hilarious quotes division):
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/al/redsox/2011-07-11-adrian-gonzalez-all-star_n.htm
I still don't get it.
They remind me of Wille B. from the Sammy Maudlin Show.
Jerry and Don were talking about platooning with Reddick and McDonald for Drew. eff that. Let people succeed until they've proven they fail I say.
I agree that sliders and cutters down and in sometimes fool Reddick, but in the past week I've seen him lay off of that pitch too, so it's not like he's an automatic out when pitchers go there.
If they don't get someone, they need to think seriously about whether Wake and Miller are really good enough to be in the rotation. They do have a couple of decent options in AAA.
Also, I'm certain Remy was joking there. He can be very dry sometimes.
I really like Bedard as a possible target - the one problem is that he's on a really cheap contract (just 1 yr / $1M). He'd cost talent.
@56 I disagree with completely. BPro has them at 99.7% to make the playoffs. They're 8.5 games up on the Angels, and 9.5 games up on the Rays for the Wild Card with 63 games left. If they play .500 from here on out they'll win 93 or 94 games. LAA would have to go 39-22 in their last 61 to overtake the Sox. I can keep saying it in different ways, but it would take a pretty epic collapse at this point for the Red Sox not to make the playoffs, and they should be thinking about their roster as such.
Red Sox Sign Haeger, Assign Him to AA
This is also interesting:
Red Sox to place Drew on DL
I wouldn't consider losing an 8.5 game lead with 60 games an epic collapse. But whatever we call it, one of the only ways it could happen would be with 2 months of terrible starting pitching.
But, let's assume that they are a lock for the playoffs. I don’t think they let a playoff rotation dictate whether or not they trade for a SP for a couple of reasons. It is so far away, and pitching and pitching health so unpredictable, that they don’t know what shape their rotation will be at that time. Another pitcher, even if we predict him to be only equivalent to Lackey/Miller/Doubront, is still an asset come playoff time. It gives them an extra choice of who to use at that time, and that is the time when the choice is best made (not now based only on projections). With only one injury, the Sox could potentially enter an LCS having to get at least 2 starts from 5.50-ERA type guys if they make no trade. Even if all they can get in trade is a clone of Andrew Miller named Randrew ‘Randy’ Miller, they should do it because it gives them one more choice come playoff time, and they can pick from a larger list of mediocrities based on who is healthy and who is throwing well. This helps even if it is one playoff start plus mopup/long-relief.
In addition, even if they are a lock for the playoffs, they certainly aren’t a lock for the division title and homefield advantage for the first 2 rounds.
Also, #61 just makes me depressed
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