All-Around Players: Still Undervalued
The most recent Sox free agent news on the twitters is that the Sox are the favorites to sign Shane Victorino. Robothal reports they’ve offered 3/38, pretty much identical to the Napoli contract. The 2012 free agent market featured a bunch of players who produce value at the plate, on the bases, and in the field, without being particularly elite in any aspect of the game. Victorino remains unsigned, while Upton and Pagan signed for 5/75 and 4/40, both less than I was expecting.
Dumber-than-Marcel projections for all three:
+6 Bat + 5 Run + 19 Rep + 1 Pos - 0 Def = +31 RAR (Pagan)
+6 Bat + 6 Run + 19 Rep + 1 Pos + 3 Def = +34 RAR (Victorino)
+7 Bat + 2 Run + 21 Rep + 2 Pos - 4 Def = +29 RAR (Upton)
Upton is much younger than Pagan and Victorino, and he still has the tools that made him a #1 draft pick, so you’d expect him to cost a bit more. Victorino is the oldest of the set (32 next year), and he’s coming off a significant down season. It’s not like there isn’t risk on Victorino. But a player with a similar projection whose value was more concentrated – whether a good defensive shortstop or a slow bopper for first base – would cost significantly more.
The downside of a move for Victorino is that it would suggest some of the big dream moves of the offseason (signing Hamilton, trading for Upton the Younger) won’t be happening. It’s hard for me to criticize the signing of a good player at a fair price because I wanted a pony.** The Sox would still have openings at SP and SS, and it’s even conceivable that they could still sign Hamilton and make Gomes a bench player.
**I guess it’s also hard for me to criticize a signing that hasn’t actually happened yet. But I had some thoughts, so I wrote them down.
Matt Clement of Alexandria
Posted: December 04, 2012 at 05:33 PM | 38 comment(s)
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