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...heh, maybe Youk is taking every illegal drug on the planet to make the Red Sox look foolish and he's going to fall apart like a rotten scarecrow in October.
As for AGon, I just think he's unhappy and as "Broken Clock Larry Bowa" said, he's trying to hack his way out of a slump rather than take his walks and let the ball find the open spots on the field when he makes contact.
OTOH, I'm assuming your comment on Youkilis fits in with the "whining" of the first half of the lead-in, in which case... well, whine on, you crazy diamond!
Do his 10 games show that he isn't cooked? No, but now his 50 games, adding those ten in, look like very weak evidence that he's fallen off a cliff. A 92 OPS+ in 50 games and a guy with an above average hitting projection should be traded for peanuts? That reads like a big overreaction with little support in the numbers.
Pedroia was never healthy. He didn't re-injure his thumb, it never healed. He tried to play through the injury. It didn't work. That the Sox don't have an adequate replacement isn't a big surprise. Few organizations have replacements for such players.
As for Youk, the "he's cooked" argument is a combination of four years of injuries, a mediocre for him 2011 and a less than mediocre 2012, not 150 PAs. Whether he's cooked or not is something we can't determine yet. I'm also not sure that "he's cooked" was the reason he's gone.
AGonz: .275 .323 .404
(*Sample sizes don't matter if I'm angry.)
A 122 OPS+ that was 24th in the American League is "mediocre?" Injuries were an issue but it's revisionist history to say that Youk was anything less than a very good player when he was in the lineup in 2011.
FTFY.
Can we please acquire some players who are mediocre in the way Youkilis was in 2011?
No, we can't determine it yet with certainty. But teams need to try to figure these things out when making trades/signings/etc. When a team does a bad job of figuring that out, it's bad for the team. Right now, taking both the long-term and very short-term views on Youkilis make it look like the Sox were wrong on him. Even the in-between, as MC points out, is mixed. A 92 OPS+ is a pretty average player and probably worth more than what they got back for him.
I revised that before you commented to "mediocre for him". I apologize for the confusion.
Getting rid of Youk to save the clubhouse is like fishing a diaper out of a Fenway stall.
Conjecture on my part but Valentine's messaging in April suggests Youk and he or Youk and the organization weren't in line.
If Youk is an @$$ because he wasn't playing well but didn't like being benched, the organization might be able to smooth it over but that isn't always possible with some people/players. Some times an @$$ is an @$$ no matter what you do. It's how they're wired.
Not sure why they would be wrong to bench him if at the time he was the third best player for two positions. Performance later doesn't affect what he was doing at the time. It is two different situations.
There was very real reason to think he would outperform Middlebrooks the rest of the season. As exciting as Middlebrooks is he's fanning 5 times for every walk and he still has a high BABIP (though .342 is not ridiculous).
I think most of us will agree that Youk was dealt more for non-playing reasons than for playing reasons but absent anything more convincing than I've read so far I'll stand by that it was a mistake to rush him out the door. As I said at the time, it's not like the White Sox were going to pull Lillibridge and Stewart off the table and if they did, big deal.
Yes, but we aren't talking the future. The discussion is about at the time. At the time Youk was a 635 ops player in April and Middlebrooks was a 922 ops player in May. Who do you play in June? The aging, injured guy with three poor months as his most recent performance or the exciting young guy riding a hot streak? With the way the team was playing they were going to try to play all three (AGon included) but Middlebrooks wasn't about to be removed.
The problem here is that we don't know how bad the situation with Youk was. His being bum-rushed out the door followed the Olney story about clubhouse issues. It looked to me like one was a natural progression to the other. There were problems and Youk was the problem and, possibly, Olney's snitch. It's conjecture but the line of breadcrumbs leads me in that direction.
It's really what they're getting back for their players that is the problem. I thought this front office was supposed to be smart. Instead, what we've seen is a lot of poor valuation of so many players. Crawford, Bailey, Youk, Jenks, maybe even Gonzalez (Fenway saps his power) and Middlebrooks (as mentioned, horrible K/BB ratio).
And put me in the camp that believes that the injuries are mostly due to stressed-out, stiff ballplayers. If they were happier, they'd be less tight and prone to injuries.
Things will get better only if you remove enough disgruntled people. They started with Youk, but next should be Valentine (preferably by firing squad), then Ortiz. Keep Lackey as far from the team as possible. Wait and see on Lester and Crawford because their value couldn't be lower. And start threatening with extortion guys like Wilbur and Mazz(hole) and Pubic Hair Club for Men so that they'll be forced to stop writing the worst possible ######## around this team.
It's not so much that I have faith this is the case but that this is the most logical answer, outside of pure incompetence, which is the other most logical answer.
Which I think we already know the Red Sox are capable of. They don't need to be rank incompetents to be capable of mistakes.
Because I've got no problem with having Papi on a 1-year deal in 2013. Who are we trading him to, exactly, and what do we imagine is the return for a 2-month rental that gets the team who trades for him 0 draft picks when he walks?
No. You offer Papi to restructure his contract at 8 mill for the rest of this year, and 12 mill next year and see how he feels about that. If he wants 14 mill for next year you give him that too.
As for Youk, you bench him until WMB gets hurt or cools off. You have a frank sit-down with him. If you can't convince him to see all sides, you give him the Manny Treatment and promise to trade him if the right offer comes along*, when that doesn't happen...well goshdurnit, I guess he and the clubhouse are just going to have to find a way to get along for a whole 3 months.
*This was Manny around 2005 i think, not 2008.
The same sentiment here could be used to explain why there was little return for Youkilis.
...and why Phillies fans who think they'd get jack shite for Hamels are way, way wrong. You could certainly argue that keeping Hamels, making the qualifying offer (which he'd turn down) would yield you a draft pick far more valuable than anything you'd get back in trade... unless, of course, you needed salary relief on the order of 1/3rd Hamels' salary.
Now, of course, if it's Amaro doing the drafting... maybe that pick's not that valuable after all...
But the whole discussion is about whether he should have been benched going forward. If they had benched Youk for a week, his attitude while sitting wouldn't matter much. It's only when they decided that he wasn't as good as AGon or Middlebrooks going forward--and therefore would have to sit and be upset--that he was traded. So the relevant thing to look at, for that discussion, is how all of the players in question have performed since that trade was made.
Isn't the remainder of his contract worth only $7mill? Im offering 8mill for the rest of this this year and 14 next year. Right now. For peace of mind etc...etc...And if he started to boil at 14 I'd give my whole 'peace of mind bit'. Ask will he take 16? And what exactly does he want?
Of course this convo probably never takes place at all, cause this is what he has an agent for. BUT, I insist since we are restucturing a contract (A contract in which Im giving him MORE, and my secretary can tell all the outraged GMs phoning me to go **** themselves) he has to sit down at this meeting. Since he insists on making all these public statements, I'm not going to play 'telephone' through his agent.
He's had the quietest 15-game hitting streak imaginable, with only three XBHs during it (1 HR), and none since the middle game of the Toronto series before they went on the West Coast trip. Only three BBs too, and those were all at the beginning of the streak: now ten games and counting without a walk. His slash line during the streak is .349/.379/.429.
If a slugger isn't slugging even when he's "hot," it's hard not to suspect there's something seriously wrong.
3B Gomez
SS Aviles
2B Punto
I don't know if there's a better option, though.
* Probably not anyone in the AL East, and probably not the Angels, for competitive reasons. They could have given much better offers, and still likely wouldn't have been trade partners with Boston.
In the past 12 months Youkilis has missed 20 games with a back injury, 16 with a hernia (requiring offseason surgery), and another 22 games with another back injury. Those are the major injuries, not the miss-a-game-here-and-there stuff; and those major injuries accounted for 58 games missed. In the 12 months prior to that he needed thumb surgery, costing another 56 games. At the time of the trade he had essentially 0 WAR, and was due $8 million ($7 million remaining, plus a $1m option buyout), and had a decent chance of missing significant time due to injury. THIS is the Kevin Youkilis hitting the trade market a couple of weeks ago. To the extent that the Red Sox were wrong to accept the offer they did, a couple dozen teams were wrong in not offering more.
Now, the fact that they needed depth at the position the moment they traded depth away... well, that's part of the team this year. No matter how much depth they've had, they've always needed more. As mentioned elsewhere in this thread it's disappointing the team continues to suffer medically, and it does seem like the team sets itself up for it - be it through player obfuscation or medical staff bumbling.
Now, the fact that they needed depth at the position the moment they traded depth away... well, that's part of the team this year. No matter how much depth they've had, they've always needed more.
Of all the things I hated about the trade, these are probably the biggest two.
1. No #### Youk has very little (almost no) trade value. The fact that he was much more valuable to the Red Sox than on the trade market is EXHIBIT A IN FAVOR OF NOT TRADING HIM. If you can't manage around what amounts to a 4-man rotation for 3 spots (including DH, and excluding the possibility of slotting Gonzalez in at RF), you're doing something wrong.
2. Banking on Middlebrooks' continued health and productivity was incredibly foolish.
Now, can we prescribe large animal tranquilizers so he doesn't injure himself in an impromptu game of clubhouse jai alai?
BTW, Dr. Pedroia, the orthopedic hand specialist overseeing this case, insists that the latest thumb injury is entirely unrelated to the thumb injury requiring a brace. Since no other doctor appears to have been involved in his care I guess we have to take him at his word.
The rationale to trade Youkilis then wasn't that WMB had the hamstring beat. It was that you can't trade Youkilis when he's hurt, but once he's healthy you have to trade him* before he gets hurt again. It's like the Lowrie trade; it's predicated on the notion that you can't depend on his health, but you know there will be stretches where he'll be healthy and it'll suck not to have him.
The team has had a bad track record with injuries, but if I'm remembering it correctly they've had a decent track record of cutting loose players with an injury history. Nomar, Pedro, Bay... Prior to this season the good players they let go ostensibly for health reasons ended up having health issues that wouldn't have justified the contracts they were demanding. Both Youkilis and Lowrie were let go this year, and both have been generally healthy since, so it doesn't look that great right now. We'll see.
* If you're going to trade him. The obvious counterargument, which I'm not denying, is that you don't have to trade him, or that if that's all you're going to get in return you should keep him.
I'll give it 3 weeks before the elbow blows out and he needs surgery, keeping him out until 2014.
Are there any adults at all making medical decisions in the F.O.? It would seem the answer is no.
Jesus Christ. Pass the f**king Bushmills.
Just at Fenway, or the road games, too?
You get to spend the slot money for all your picks so I don't see how.
Eek. I would still be willing to wager Dale S re Carl's 2012. How about I take the over of 95.5 for his OPS+. This is the mid of his ops+ with the Rays (107) and the Sawks (84). Thanks to BRef for splitting that out to me on their mobile site!
Coming from a guy who never got on base over .300 last year and will be making a getting on base at a .400 clip sit down....that's great news.
If Ellsbury is really ready to come back, great. If not, use this opportunity to let Nava and Kalish see if they can stick.
There was, to name another case, no benefit to Pedroia playing ahead of Nick Punto if all he was doing was hitting pretty much like Punto would have done while failing to address his injury properly.
You never want to root for the team to lose, least of all to the Yankees, but a case could be made that such a fate might advance a situation that needs badly to be advanced.
I dunno. It's probably stupid to trust the medical staff on anything at this point, but having a position player rehab an injury of this sort is not atypical. The problems that Crawford is reporting haven't prevented other ballplayers from producing at the plate and in the field.
If just a few of the following things happen, the Sox will be obvious contenders:
-Ellsbury comes back and produces
-Crawford comes back and produces
-Pedroia comes back and produces
-Bailey comes back and produces
-Buchholz comes back and produces
-Gonzalez gets himself right
-Lester produces at career norms
-Morales turns out to be a real find
-Doubront pitches up to his component numbers
-Middlebrooks remains effective
-The club starts winning games at a rate commensurate with their RS/RA
The talent is obviously there. The club should be several games above .500 now if they'd just arranged their runs scored and runs allowed better. And we'll be getting a couple of All-Stars and a couple of productive major leaguers back on the roster in the next month or so.
I'm not saying you have to be optimistic, but I-give-up fatalism is not a reasonable option.
I must say it's looking pretty accurate right now. I'd say "good" but it has utterly failed at making me not miserable about it except insofar as the misery is being slowly replaced with apathy.
Mikael I'm normally with you but man, I'm having a tough time right now. This team looks helpless to me. We're going to be sub-.500 at the break for the first time since I assume 1997 and 4-6 games back of the Wild Card behind several teams. It's just hard to see any number of the things you list as likely right now. Obviously it's a suckers bet to say anything about a series where we lost game one and are well on our way to losing game two but I can't see us not getting swept.
Logic says you're right, but emotion is overwhelming right now. I think I need the ASB more than these guys do.
In years to come, we will argue whose contract was worse: Crawford or Lackey. I quite honestly do fear both are complete sunk costs.
Man, getting beat by Sweaty Freddy makes me want to move to Crazy Clown Town too
Banking on a rookie's health is foolish? Please.
1. Note the 'and'
2. What MCoA said.
I want CC's rehab to last as long as possible. Like TE said, the contract is a sunk cost so I don't want to see him rushed back because he's making however many millions a year at the expense of Nava's PT. I'm in the "Nava could be for real" camp, and think they should answer that question.*
Kalish needed to go back to AAA; he looked AWFUL. But that doesn't really effect CC as CC is not going to be playing CF. I guess Sweeney is the everyday CF now? They weren't really platooning Kalish (14/19 starts in CF, including against some lefties), and he's worse than Sweeney; Ross no longer looks able to even plausibly fake CF (then again, 4 years ago neither did Podsednik, so who knows). With McDonald gone, Lillibridge would be the partner for Sweeney...
MCoA's right about Pedroia, as well.
Re [63], I can SEE the path to success in 2012, but things are definitely going to get worse before they get better.
*On 7/04 in Oakland I was sitting about 3 rows behind the on-deck circle. Been a long time since I was that close to the game. In Nava's 2nd or 3rd AB during a lull in the action I yelled "hit one for Erin!" (which I didn't think was particularly obscure, but nobody in my section had any idea except for my dad, and he reads here) and he actually called time, turned sort of halfway in my direction as he stepped out of the box. Looked like a chuckle. Of course then I felt like a bit of a dbag for interrupting his AB. Anyway, he's awesome.
The roster is depleted, but he thinks it still needs to shaken up. Solution? Completely empty it to get Felix Hernandez.
Also, Ellsbury is a lazy shirker, or something.
I gotta be honest: I know people can't entirely help how they feel, but I just can't imagine still being a fan if I so easily lapsed into hopelessness about their prospects when at worst they are playing like a mediocre team, it just seems miserable.
True, the Red Sox aren't that far out of the wildcards. So, when will Red Sox fans start rooting for the Yankees when they play Boston's AL East and Wildcard rivals? Could be difficult for some.
Much the same way you can't step into the same river twice, the way down feels discomforting in a way that makes no objective sense to someone on the way up. We're so used to cheering for a team we expect to be there that this iteration is a bit painful. But there's more to it than that...the disconnect between what the experts thought about this team and how they are performing is a big source of the frustration. If I wasn't hearing people whose opinions I value tell me that this team is better than it looks the situation would be different.
The rational, thinking fan in me says that the ridiculous number of injuries will stop or at least slow down at some point, talented players like Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez and Pedroia and Lester and Beckett will progress to their career norms and actually fulfill their expected roles, but it's hard to really buy into that viewpoint with the day to day disappointments this ballclub has brought over the last year or so. And then you get news like Crawford living day to day expecting his UCL to rupture, but the team not letting him get TJ surgery, and it's pretty hard to actually keep a rational or optimistic viewpoint and/or attitude regarding this team. I admire Mikael for his ability to remain rational in the face of the continuing absurdities we are subjected to, but last season simply overtaxed my ability to stand there with him.
That's all kinds of stupid right there. He is coming off the worst season of his career, has missed the first 85 or so games, and is dealing with shoulder, elbow, and now groin problems trying to get back. Why the hell would he try to come back to likely suck again instead of getting the surgery now, fixing that problem and resting everything else, then returning at full strength to begin 2013? I know TJ isn't the same recovery timetable for hitters as it is for pitchers but waiting till October is cutting the timetable pretty close for being back to normal by spring training. Or he might double down on the stupid and just wait for it to blow who knows when.
The reporting of the stories, and Crawford's quotes, do count as evidence that Crawford's injury might be more serious or more difficult to play through than others. It might also just be the cannibalistic Boston press. I'm not saying, "in Red Sox medical and training staff we trust", but they're not batting absolute .000 either. They could be right, and there's a good bit of history with injuries like this on their side.
Crawford really sounds like a guy who is ready to return and contribute to a contending team here.
And from twitter, when asked about how he feels about throwing with a partially torn UCL:
After the way Crawford looked tentative and unsure of himself all of last season this bodes very poorly, in my opinion. In particular I'm recalling how incapable he was of trusting his hamstrings and actually running hard after coming back from the pulled hamstring, and this injury is far worse than that one was.
On a larger scale, this reminds me of when Schilling wanted to get shoulder surgery and the Red Sox management and medical team wouldn't let him and forced him to try rehabbing the injury. We all know how that one turned out.
Cue the crazy clown music! Accompanied by each member on a unicycle with sticks and spinning plates on top of them...yeah, you know the scene.
Having pulled up maybe a dozen times in my life, I understand the trepidation. It does go away but that takes time.
Then, we can get the incredible Carl Crawford of the Rays, who had a slash line in his last seven seasons in Tampa of...
.301/.344/.461, for an OPS+ of 113.
My problem with Carl Crawford has always been that even if he is healthy, and is as productive as he was in Tampa for the vast majority of his career, he's just not that awesome.
With 40-50 steals and gold glove defense? That's an awesome player. Carl Crawford at his best is vastly underrated if you look at just his slash lines. Maybe WAR and UZR and others overrate him but to look at him just as a function of his OPS+ is always going to leave him wanting by comparison.
Mauro Gomez called up to replace him on the roster and in the lineup batting 6th as DH.
Well the Sox can just slide Youkilis into DH ... oh, wait.
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