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   1. Darren Posted: November 15, 2007 at 04:56 AM (#2615332)
Saw this on SOSH:

Lowell has 4 offers of 4 years/$55-60 mil:

7Sports has learned that Mike Lowell has received contract offers from four separate MLB teams: the Braves, Angels, Cardinals, and Yankees.

A source close to the Lowell side of the negotiations tells 7Sports that each offer is a 4-year contract, worth between $55-60 million.


Well that's interesting. Think maybe the Sox are regretting not going harder after ARod?
   2. JB H Posted: November 15, 2007 at 04:58 AM (#2615335)
wait is the arod stuff official?

would people really be upset if the yankees signed lowell for 4/60 to play first base?
   3. Fat Al Posted: November 15, 2007 at 05:04 AM (#2615338)
wait is the arod stuff official?

would people really be upset if the yankees signed lowell for 4/60 to play first base?


Not official as far as anything I've seen, but the mlb.com headline "Yanks, A-Rod close to multi-year deal" seems like someone is telling someone it's close.

Signing Lowell to play 3B in the Bronx for 4/60 would be dumb. Paying him 4/60 to play 1B in the Bronx would be insane. Since I assume your question was posed to Red Sox fans, I'm going to guess that they would be thrilled if the Yankees installed Lowell at 1B for 4 years at that price (except, perhaps, for the 9 or 10 games a year at Fenway).
   4. Darren Posted: November 15, 2007 at 05:07 AM (#2615343)
I don't see it as that big of a deal for the Yankees. $15 mil for a 1B like Lowell? Eh, it's not going to really put a big dent in their budget and it would really make things difficult for Boston. Heck, they could put him on the bench with $13 mil Damon, just to keep him from the Red Sox.
   5. Schilling's Sprained Ankiel Posted: November 15, 2007 at 05:08 AM (#2615344)
Too much for Mikey. Offer him a vesting option for a 4th, maybe.
   6. Ignatius J. Reilly Posted: November 15, 2007 at 05:09 AM (#2615345)
Umm, I thought the Braves had a 3rd baseman. I like to see them willing to spend, but I hope this doesn't mean another Chipper to LF debacle.
   7. Raines Posted: November 15, 2007 at 05:11 AM (#2615347)
Let him sign elsewhere. Better to walk away from a bad deal and having Lowell on your roster 4 seasons from now has got to be a bad idea. There's got to be other doors opening that we can't see or don't know about right now, right? Besides Miguel Cabrera, Rodriguez and Lowell, I mean.
   8. Xander Posted: November 15, 2007 at 05:14 AM (#2615349)
The fact that Lowell leaving the Sox is getting more attention than the fact that they blew their chance to draft Rick Porcello by signing Julio Lugo is a complete joke. It's hard for me to take media and fans seriously.
   9. JB H Posted: November 15, 2007 at 05:16 AM (#2615350)
uh
   10. Fat Al Posted: November 15, 2007 at 05:17 AM (#2615351)
And that's why the Yankees won't sign both Lowell and Rodriguez. Cashman won't give Boston the draft picks unless he has to.
   11. Darren Posted: November 15, 2007 at 05:18 AM (#2615352)
Yeah, who cares about losing the World Series MVP and the guy who hit .320 with 120 RBIs last year. We should be talking about the pitcher the Red Sox might have signed and played low-A ball last year.
   12. The John Wetland Memorial Death (CoB) Posted: November 15, 2007 at 05:19 AM (#2615353)
c'mon angels ... you didn't want to spend for a-rod, now's your chance to make the BIG splash and land Lowell!

do it for shredder!
   13. Xander Posted: November 15, 2007 at 05:21 AM (#2615354)
Yeah, who cares about losing the World Series MVP and the guy who hit .320 with 120 RBIs last year. We should be talking about the pitcher the Red Sox might have signed and played low-A ball last year.
Yea, we should. And we will be in 2 years. A lot.
   14. Darren Posted: November 15, 2007 at 05:23 AM (#2615358)
Cheer up, Temple. If the Braves sign Lowell, the Red Sox could get their high-teens draft pick and pick up the next Jason Place!
   15. Xander Posted: November 15, 2007 at 05:27 AM (#2615360)
Fine by me. The less players who are over 30 on the team the better.
   16. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: November 15, 2007 at 05:29 AM (#2615363)
Three teams offered Lowell practically identical contracts? How odd.

I wonder how Theo's plan to have the teams tell each other what they were going to do went.

Also, have you heard that players' salaries take up 41% of revenues, down from 56% at the beginning of the decade?
   17. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: November 15, 2007 at 05:30 AM (#2615364)
The less players who are over 30 on the team the better.
The Red Sox without Manny Ramirez or David Ortiz would be about 1/10 as much fun as they are right now.
   18. JC in DC Posted: November 15, 2007 at 05:36 AM (#2615367)
Also, have you heard that players' salaries take up 41% of revenues, down from 56% at the beginning of the decade?


I'm just going to assume the owners'll pass on all the savings to the customer!
   19. philly Posted: November 15, 2007 at 05:41 AM (#2615372)
Yeah, who cares about losing the World Series MVP and the guy who hit .320 with 120 RBIs last year. We should be talking about the pitcher the Red Sox might have signed and played low-A ball last year.


This just shows how little you value minor leaguers. He wouldn't have played low-A ball until next year.

Although you may be on to something... the anticipation of that first low-A ball inning would certainly help get us through the long, cold winter.

The idea that the Lugo signing was the only thing standing between the Sox and Porcello makes my eyeballs bleed.
   20. Kyle S Posted: November 15, 2007 at 05:45 AM (#2615379)
call me more than a tad skeptical the the braves have offered at least 4/55 for lowell. Why?
   21. Kyle S Posted: November 15, 2007 at 05:46 AM (#2615381)
also, if we did, the mets would get our first round pick anyway when we sign glavine ;)
   22. plink Posted: November 15, 2007 at 06:05 AM (#2615396)
This is a lot of hand-wringing; I'm not exactly sure how all of this affects the Red Sox. I'm all for schadenfreuding on the Yankees, but the Yankees aren't exactly making themselves better with these moves. They're not making themselves worse, but I would absolutely take the Red Sox next year if neither team made any moves.

The enjoyable thing about the Yankees/ARod thing for me is that both sides lost *no matter what the results*. As soon as ARod opted out, this was a win/win for the Red Sox.
   23. Hugh Jorgan Posted: November 15, 2007 at 06:07 AM (#2615397)
Other then the extra cash, why would Lowell want to go anywhere else? If our offer is close, he'll stay. After all we are the defending champs. Call me silly, but I have faith in this management team to keep the ship righted so to speak and if NOT offering Lowell the world is part of that plan then I'll support it. As mentioned above, to offer Lowell 4/60 to play 1B is just plain stupid for NY.

As far as A-rod is concerned, I reckoned we offered him higher dollars, shorter terms..on the order of 5/150. This management team doesn't like to give anyone a high $ contract longer then 4 years(Dice-K excepted).
   24. The Piehole of David Wells Posted: November 15, 2007 at 06:09 AM (#2615398)
i couldn't care less about the yanks getting arod. we just won the ws again. hell, one of darren, mcoa, temple, philly, or kyle s could play 3b for the sox and i would still root for the team. hell, all of you could be the starting infield, and i still wouldn't care.
   25. Nasty Nate Posted: November 15, 2007 at 06:14 AM (#2615404)
i call 2b
   26. Schilling's Sprained Ankiel Posted: November 15, 2007 at 06:19 AM (#2615410)
I'm a lefty, I have to play 1B.
   27. Hugh Jorgan Posted: November 15, 2007 at 06:20 AM (#2615411)
I'm taking SS. Slick fielder, good arm, no hit(circa 70's SS)
   28. Exploring Leftist Conservatism since 2008 (ark..) Posted: November 15, 2007 at 06:25 AM (#2615420)
Is it about money--was no one else willing to pay that much?


Yes. What Arod is doing now is called, well, "begging".
   29. Schilling's Sprained Ankiel Posted: November 15, 2007 at 06:29 AM (#2615425)
On second thought, I'll be a pitcher. I'll make more money that way as a lefty.
   30. The Yankee Clapper Posted: November 15, 2007 at 06:32 AM (#2615428)
Other then the extra cash, why would Lowell want to go anywhere else?

Some reports suggest other teams are offering $20M more than Boston. Who walks away from $20M? In their last big contract?
   31. Phil Coorey is a T-Shirt Salesman Posted: November 15, 2007 at 07:32 AM (#2615479)
Who walks away from $20M? In their last big contract?

Aramis Ramirez???

Thats a guess, and I ain't looking it up. Someone here will know...
   32. Lassus Posted: November 15, 2007 at 08:48 AM (#2615522)
Yes. What Arod is doing now is called, well, "begging".


If begging is required to get someone to pay me $270 million, I'm going to call my doctor, because my knees are going to be REALLY sore. But rich.
   33. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: November 15, 2007 at 11:44 AM (#2615537)
Whatever, the minimum this whole mess accomplished for the Red Sox was that the Yankees lost the 30 mil from Texas.
   34. Spahn Insane Posted: November 15, 2007 at 02:07 PM (#2615560)
7Sports has learned that Mike Lowell has received contract offers from four separate MLB teams: the Braves, Angels, Cardinals, and Yankees.

I take this as a concession from the Cardinals that Rolen's finished. Sweet.
   35. Spahn Insane Posted: November 15, 2007 at 02:10 PM (#2615563)
Who walks away from $20M? In their last big contract?

Aramis Ramirez???


I don't think he was going to get quite that much, but he probably could've gotten 17-18MM per from the Angels. He definitely gave the Cubs a hometown discount.

Then, too, Ramirez will only be 33 when his contract runs out. Depending on his health and production, his current contract might not be his last big one.
   36. villageidiom Posted: November 15, 2007 at 02:11 PM (#2615564)
25. Nasty Nate Posted: November 15, 2007 at 12:14 AM (#2615404)
i call 2b

26. Schilling's Sprained Ankiel Posted: November 15, 2007 at 12:19 AM (#2615410)
I'm a lefty, I have to play 1B.

27. Hugh Jorgan Posted: November 15, 2007 at 12:20 AM (#2615411)
I'm taking SS. Slick fielder, good arm, no hit(circa 70's SS)


So we're not going to claim backup catcher, thereby preventing the return of Doug Mirabelli? Fine. I'll take it.
   37. Spahn Insane Posted: November 15, 2007 at 02:14 PM (#2615565)
Oh--if you mean Ramirez walked away from a deal worth $20MM more IN TOTAL than the one he signed, you might be right. (I'm thinking it was actually between 10 and 15 MM, but still.)
   38. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: November 15, 2007 at 02:51 PM (#2615575)
I can be the RHB platoon LF/RF/1B!!

I can also play a mean midfield
   39. Joe Bivens, Minor Genius Posted: November 15, 2007 at 03:01 PM (#2615583)
Go ahead, kevin. Say it. "Pants pisser".
   40. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: November 15, 2007 at 03:05 PM (#2615585)
I'm not afraid of teh sky falling. I'm just afraid of the meteor showers, the Russian nukes, and whatever terrorist secret weapon we don't know about.
   41. The Essex Snead Posted: November 15, 2007 at 03:57 PM (#2615639)
Lord, this Chicken-Little complex really needs to get put in a bag full of kittens & thrown over the side of a bridge. If Lowell's getting offers for $60 million over 4 years, good luck Mr. World Series MVP, God bless, and feel free to say howdy when you're in town. If the Yankees are finally getting their head out of their Steinbrenners & talking to A-Rod again, and he ends up with an 8-to-10-year deal for $27 million or more, then kudos to him & Boras, & so be it. The worst thing for the Red Sox to do is pay too much to hold onto or reclaim that fuzzy World Series victory vibe, and if the cost for such an ephemeral thing is as high as these numbers suggest, then I'm all for the Sox staying the course with their current plan of attack, pundits and prognosticators be damned.
   42. tfbg9 Posted: November 15, 2007 at 05:08 PM (#2615746)
Yep. F*ck Arod. Seriously. Don't want him.
   43. DCA Posted: November 15, 2007 at 05:16 PM (#2615767)
retro, by finished, do you mean he's through with the Cardinals or do you mean he's through being a good player?

Doesn't matter, from the Cardinals standpoint.
   44. Vin Middle Posted: November 15, 2007 at 05:18 PM (#2615772)
So is this a done deal or what? I will believe it when I see it. Either way, we win. ARod goes back to Janks, the fans still will turn on him. He goes to the left coast, the Janks miss the playoffs. And we still get to stare at our shiny ringz.
   45. Famous Original Joe C Posted: November 15, 2007 at 05:18 PM (#2615773)
How could anyone be stunned by this? Wasn't this pretty obviously what was going to happen, no matter what posturing and pronouncements were made in the media?

Lord, this Chicken-Little complex really needs to get put in a bag full of kittens & thrown over the side of a bridge. If Lowell's getting offers for $60 million over 4 years, good luck Mr. World Series MVP, God bless, and feel free to say howdy when you're in town. If the Yankees are finally getting their head out of their Steinbrenners & talking to A-Rod again, and he ends up with an 8-to-10-year deal for $27 million or more, then kudos to him & Boras, & so be it. The worst thing for the Red Sox to do is pay too much to hold onto or reclaim that fuzzy World Series victory vibe, and if the cost for such an ephemeral thing is as high as these numbers suggest, then I'm all for the Sox staying the course with their current plan of attack, pundits and prognosticators be damned.

And this, too. The Red Sox just won their second World Series in four years, they have a very good player development system, tons of resources (i.e. money), and a braintrust that seems to know what they are doing. Am I supposed to be worried about losing a 33 year old 3B who is going to hit .280/.340/.460 next year? They can't replace that or improve elsewhere to make up for it? Come on.
   46. Jon T. Posted: November 15, 2007 at 05:25 PM (#2615788)
I wonder how much it would take to get Laroche from the Dodgers? Lowrie and Crisp?
   47. Smiling Joe Hesketh Posted: November 15, 2007 at 06:16 PM (#2615867)
Why the handwringing over Lowell?

Lowell's career BA is 280. He hit 324 in 2007. Is that a fluke? Should the Sox be paying him according to a year which might have been a fluke?

Lowell's BABIP in 2006 was 287. This year it was 337. What do you think is going to happen going forward?

I like him and would happily sign him to a 3 year deal. I don't do 4 years for him.
   48. Fat Al Posted: November 15, 2007 at 06:36 PM (#2615891)
I wonder how much it would take to get Laroche from the Dodgers? Lowrie and Crisp?


And a lot of cash.
   49. JPWF13 Posted: November 15, 2007 at 06:37 PM (#2615893)
Also, have you heard that players' salaries take up 41% of revenues, down from 56% at the beginning of the decade?


Well if someone like Lowell gets 60/4*, then a reworking of that 41% figure upwards seems to be in the cards.


* But then again 60/4 for Mike Lowell is a bargain compared to 44/5 to Juan Pierre.
   50. esturminator_CT Posted: November 15, 2007 at 06:41 PM (#2615895)
I'm not sure I can see where this is necessarily a bad day for the Red Sox fans. If the Yankees want to spend $400MM bringing back Arod, Posada, and Rivera trying to rebuild the same old team that hasn't been good enough to win anything for the past 7 years, and leaving little financial room to go after improving their pitching staff, then I'm all for it.
   51. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: November 15, 2007 at 06:41 PM (#2615896)
I wonder how much it would take to get Laroche from the Dodgers?

Miguel Cabrera.
   52. benmc Posted: November 16, 2007 at 01:10 AM (#2616658)
The best move the Yankees could make is let Mike Lowell sign with the Red sox. He fits in great with those new englanders!
   53. birdlives is one crazy ninja Posted: November 16, 2007 at 02:32 AM (#2616866)
just trade for Tejada already.
   54. Darren Posted: November 16, 2007 at 03:49 AM (#2616989)
You know, I'm sick people whining that I'm a negative chicken little pants pisser. If you're looking at ARod going back to the Yankees, and you don't think that's a bad thing for the Red Sox, then you're not dealing with reality. He adds several wins to their team that they were not going to get anywhere else without trading one of their best players. Sahing "Screw A-Rod, we don't need him!" doesn't change that fact.

But I guess to you whiners, any mention of anything that's not completely positive is devastating to your delicate sensibilities--so devastating that you have to immediately dismiss it as chicken little saying the sky is falling.

Well, I'm sorry but I'm not wired like that. I can acknowledge that Arod to the Yanks is bad news and still enjoy my life and feel generally good about the Red Sox. I can note that losing Lowell would put the Red Sox over the barrel, and that when they were in that situation in the past, they didn't fare so well. And still, even after noting that, I can be generally positive about the team's future.

It's called having a little bit of perspective about things. You guys should give it a try.
   55. Darren Posted: November 16, 2007 at 04:03 AM (#2617003)
Three teams offered Lowell practically identical contracts? How odd.

I wonder how Theo's plan to have the teams tell each other what they were going to do went.


Do you think they wouldn't have talked to each other otherwise? I'm very suspicious about the 7Sports story. Why would they be the only ones who have it? It sounds like his agent was trying to leak to a source that wouldn't have the resources/connections to check it out with other sources.
   56. chris p Posted: November 16, 2007 at 04:28 AM (#2617020)
It's called having a little bit of perspective about things. You guys should give it a try.

yerr funny lookin
   57. villageidiom Posted: November 16, 2007 at 04:33 AM (#2617024)
If you're looking at ARod going back to the Yankees, and you don't think that's a bad thing for the Red Sox, then you're not dealing with reality.

I can't really speak for anyone calling you names, but I was never invested in the notion that A-Rod was not going back to the Yankees. His "return" to the only team he's played for in the last four years doesn't improve the team as much as it averts making them worse. Is it a bad day? Sure - the team raised my season ticket prices by around $330. Oh, and the Yankees will be the same at 3B in 2008 as they were in 2007.

This is nitpicky, but in the intro you said, "What I do know is that this turn of events really changed the dynamic between the Red Sox and Yankees." Yeah, it changed the dynamic from what it's been for the last 2 1/2 weeks, but not from what it'd been for the 10 months before that (never mind prior years). I say it's nitpicky, because I didn't have a problem with what you said in the first place. You are starting from a different, but equally legitimate, perspective than I am. Nothing wrong with that.
   58. Miko Supports Shane's Spam Habit Posted: November 16, 2007 at 04:42 AM (#2617029)
hasn't been good enough to win anything for the past 7 years

well, they did win the division 6 of those 7 years.
   59. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: November 16, 2007 at 11:21 AM (#2617191)
Why the handwringing over Lowell?

Lowell's career BA is 280. He hit 324 in 2007. Is that a fluke? Should the Sox be paying him according to a year which might have been a fluke?
Because the Sox will be worse in 2008 without Lowell, almost certainly. They might be more efficient in $$/win, but they'll most likely win fewer games. Given my priorities, that doesn't make me happy.

You are right, though, that it would be an inefficient contract. We've have this dispute already. I don't know why you're acting like it's a crazy idea.

And I don't really get all the Darren-bashing, and obviously it's bad for the Red Sox that ARod is a Yankee. I think it does make us somewhat more likely to get Lowell, which in turn makes me somewat happier, so there is that.
   60. Valentine Posted: November 16, 2007 at 04:33 PM (#2617392)
Because the Sox will be worse in 2008 without Lowell, almost certainly. They might be more efficient in $$/win, but they'll most likely win fewer games. Given my priorities, that doesn't make me happy.

What is your referent here? Maybe I've been drinking too much of the Kool-Aid, but I'm looking at a team that should win MORE games in 2008 than in 2007 -- even if they complete the roster with journeymen. Upgrading from Crisp to Ellsbury gives the offense a boost. Anticipated (partial) rebounds from Manny, Drew, and Lugo should help as well. I'll wait for the ZiPS to come out before making a more precise estimate, but I'm currently expecting roughly 850 RS. Now turn to the pitching. Matsuzaka should be much better (check out his mid-August ERA and anticipate a full season at that quality). Add Lester and Buchholz for 180 innings apiece. Now consider that the team underperformed its Pythagorean W-L last year. Lowell on a reasonable deal would be nice. Lowell would improve the 2008 roster. Lowell is not even remotely necessary to making the playoffs.

When it looked like the Yankees were finally going to follow through on one of their ARod threats, things were looking a lot better for Boston.

True. Without ARod, or another marquee acquisition that would decimate their young pitching, the Yankees would not have been competitive in 2008. I'm not shocked that they worked something out, and I don't see this as the end of the world. I argued above that the Red Sox should win more games in 2008 than in 2007. The Yankees may win fewer, even if Pettitte returns (which I expect he will do). While Hughes, Kennedy, and Chamberlain are significant additions, their offense will be another year older. Will Posada repeat? Will ARod hit *another* 50 home runs now that he no longer has a new contract to aim for? Will Jeter and Abreu remain healthy or continue their slide?

Even if the Yankees win 110 games and take the division in a blowout, so what? The Red Sox remain first in line for the wild card, and nobody will have an answer for Beckett/Matsuzaka/Buchholz/Lester in the playoffs. Oh, don't forget "Old Man" Schilling. If his arm is still attached to his shoulder in October, he'll come up big.

I wonder what Boston was offering for ARod. Any guesses?

I suggested earlier a set of assumptions that might justify a $350M contract, but even the $275M being reported is a bit of a stretch IMHO. The Red Sox have been pretty conservative when signing players in their 30s, so I would have expected their interest to fall somewhere between $180M/6yr and $200M/8yr. Given the parameters that Boras was laying out (and ultimately got from the Yankees), I doubt they even got to the point of discussing specific numbers.
   61. Joel W Posted: November 16, 2007 at 04:45 PM (#2617401)
I guess maybe I keep dreaming of a day where Jeter and A-Rod will be in their late 30s, hobbling around the left side of their infield costing the Yankees an unfathomable amount of runs defensively while not making up for it with their bat anymore. Oh, and Posada will be behind the plate doing the same thing.

The sad thing is, they probably won't fall of quite like that, but at some point, they're going to decline. I find myself trying to take the long-term view, and that is certainly part of it. For next year, it sucks a lot, though I will enjoy seeing the cover of the Post in the morning.

More generally, the Yankees spending this off-season on keeping all of their players around is pretty disappointing. I expected at least one of Posada or A-Rod to leave, thought not Rivera. Even so, there's an impressive amount of regression to the mean that I think we can expect next year for Posada and A-Rod. A-Rod's average as a Yankee has been about 8.5, while last year he put up 11. Posada should probably come down by at least a win.

I'd really like to sign Lowell as well, since it's not my money.
   62. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: November 16, 2007 at 04:52 PM (#2617411)
Add Lester and Buchholz for 180 innings apiece.

If your assuming that, don't you have to assume Hughes and Kennedy for 180 IP each and Joba for 150? That puts the Yankees on a par with boston at least.
   63. ellsbury my heart at wounded knee Posted: November 16, 2007 at 05:07 PM (#2617435)
A-Rod's average as a Yankee has been about 8.5, while last year he put up 11. Posada should probably come down by at least a win.


True, but I expect Giambi and Damon to be a little better in 2008, and if they somehow find a decent 1B, it's possible they get better production than Minky's surprisingly good 277/349/440 line.

If your assuming that, don't you have to assume Hughes and Kennedy for 180 IP each and Joba for 150? That puts the Yankees on a par with boston at least.


I don't think it does. Beckett/Schilling/Matsuzaka/Buchholz/Lester I still think is better than Wang/Hughes/Chamberlin/Kennedy/Mussina. The Yankees have all the potential in the world, but the Red Sox had some of the best pitching in baseball last year, and have a little more MLB experience. If Pettitte comes back, that makes the Yankees even better, but I'm not sure that's enough.
   64. Valentine Posted: November 16, 2007 at 05:14 PM (#2617447)
If your assuming that, don't you have to assume Hughes and Kennedy for 180 IP each and Joba for 150? That puts the Yankees on a par with boston at least.

Sure, I'll give you those three. Just not sure it will be enough to make up for the offensive dropoff I am anticipating. Probably shouldn't open my big fat mouth until after running the numbers. Hmm -- the Yankees ZiPS are up. Let me see what I can do...
   65. Joel W Posted: November 16, 2007 at 05:18 PM (#2617453)
Giambi sure, if healthy, which is always questionable. I'm not so sure that there's any reason to expect that much more from Damon. My guess is that his Marcel would look relatively close to last year's line, no?

Who will they get to play first? Is there anybody on the market?
   66. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: November 16, 2007 at 05:20 PM (#2617456)
True, but I expect Giambi and Damon to be a little better in 2008, and if they somehow find a decent 1B, it's possible they get better production than Minky's surprisingly good 277/349/440 line.
FWIW, the Yankees' actual 1B line last year was .284/.350/.419. I'd say they really ought to be able to top that, but then, I was pretty sure they would be able to top 2006's .804 OPS so who knows?
   67. The Essex Snead Posted: November 16, 2007 at 05:20 PM (#2617457)
You know, I'm sick people whining that I'm a negative chicken little pants pisser. If you're looking at ARod going back to the Yankees, and you don't think that's a bad thing for the Red Sox, then you're not dealing with reality. He adds several wins to their team that they were not going to get anywhere else without trading one of their best players. Sahing "Screw A-Rod, we don't need him!" doesn't change that fact.

For what it's worth, when I posted my Chicken-Little thing, I was complaining in a general sense, and not trying to single any one person out. That said, the Yankees resigning A-Rod doesn't "add" wins - as someone's already pointed out, it maintains last year's status quo. Yes, it's safe to assume that last year's Yankee offense + replacing last year's rotational chum cavalcade with 50 starts from Hughes, Kennedy, & Chamberlain will add more than a few wins to their total. And, yes, if Lowell opts out of returning to Boston, then it'll be a hit on the Sox offense.

Whoop de doo. I guess my thing is: the Red Sox should worry about the Red Sox, and that's it, ESPECIALLY when it comes to the Yankees. They should put the best team on the field they're able to, and they should field this team with an eye towards future success as well as current-day success. And I'm of a mind that either A) signing A-Rod to a contract similar to the decade-long $275 million deal he just rec'd from NYY or B) giving Lowell his $60+ million doesn't do that in the slightest. The short-term gains such deals bring would most likely bring negative long-term repurcussions, even for a team footing the 2nd-largest bill in the majors.

Valentine's first paragraph is spot-on - the loss of Lowell's contributions could very well be offset by some hitters returning to previously established levels of performance, & coupled with some in-house pitching changes, never mind what the replacement 1B / 3B would bring. Even with Plan A and Plan B (reportedly) off the table, there are still plenty of positive moves that can be made, and plenty of time to make those moves. It's been said already, but it bears repeating - the Red Sox are defending World Series Champions, and they certainly don't look like a one-and-done team. The last thing the organization (or their fanbase) needs to do is worry about A-Rod signing with the Yankees.
   68. ellsbury my heart at wounded knee Posted: November 16, 2007 at 05:36 PM (#2617481)
Who will they get to play first? Is there anybody on the market?


Not much. Mike Lamb? Sean Casey? Corey Koskie maybe? Not too inspiring. One of them might be able to repeat the 2007 line, but I don't see anyone who would do much better.
   69. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: November 16, 2007 at 06:06 PM (#2617533)
Yankees could stick Betemit at 1B, if they think he can handle it. Or use him as right-handed part of a platoon with say, Sean Casey, which might give them something in the .800 OPS range. That's a marginal upgrade, but ever little bit helps, after all.
   70. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: November 16, 2007 at 06:14 PM (#2617544)
Btw, what would be the in-house options should Lowell walk (Which I'm expecting to happen)?

I'd advocate a platoon of...

Vs RHP: Youkilis 3B, Moss 1B
Vs LHP: Lowrie 3B Youkilis 1B

Any news on the Bobby Kielty front? I want him as the RHB/5th OF on the team next year.
   71. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: November 16, 2007 at 06:29 PM (#2617559)
Yankees could stick Betemit at 1B, if they think he can handle it. Or use him as right-handed part of a platoon with say, Sean Casey, which might give them something in the .800 OPS range

Betemit should be the lefthanded part of any platoon. He should never bat right handed again, as far as I'm concerned. Small sample and all, but still: 232/281/353 lifetime as a RH hitter.
   72. Valentine Posted: November 16, 2007 at 06:35 PM (#2617565)
Okay, I took a rough stab at the Yankees using the ZiPS projections. Totaled the projections for ARod, Giambi, Matsui, Cano, Abreu, Posada, Jeter, Betemit, Duncan, Cabrera, Minky, Damon, and Molina. That comes up with a line that is roughly 200 AB on the "high" side, and doesn't include occasional AB that might be given to lesser lights over the course of the season. The 2007 Yankees averaged .290/.366/.463, while this "optimistic" projection averages out to .283/.365/.459. Looks like they might hold their own, but they'll have trouble doing any better. Only 250 AB projected for Minky, so there is little potential for gain there. Might improve their SLG a couple points if they take AB away from Judas, but that is a very minor factor.

A similar approach for their pitching results in 1587 IP of a 4.13 ERA. That does on the surface appear to be an improvement from their 4.49 ERA last year, however toss in a couple hundred innings from pitchers with a 6+ ERA and we're right back in the same range. So my call: slightly weaker offense, slightly better pitching, roughly 95-97 wins when all is said and done.

Meanwhile, the Red Sox had a Pythagorean record of 101 wins last year and even with the loss of Lowell I believe they can match that. Pass the Kool-Aid!
   73. Famous Original Joe C Posted: November 16, 2007 at 06:42 PM (#2617573)
Vs RHP: Youkilis 3B, Moss 1B
Vs LHP: Lowrie 3B Youkilis 1B


Hmm...call up their top IF prospect only to have him sit on the bench 4-5 days per week and have a corner OF whose MLE for 2007 was ~.250/.315/.420 play 1B 75% of the time? I don't think it's going out on a limb to say the Sox can and should do better at a reasonable cost.
   74. 1k5v3L Posted: November 16, 2007 at 06:47 PM (#2617578)
Who will they get to play first? Is there anybody on the market?


Tony Clark.

The Dbacks might trade one of Conor Jackson or Chad Tracy. Overhyped PCL prospects and all. Still better options than Sean Casey.
   75. Famous Original Joe C Posted: November 16, 2007 at 06:51 PM (#2617585)
Looks like they might hold their own, but they'll have trouble doing any better.

Come on, Cano is good for .350/.400/.590 and two MVPs next year easy.
   76. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: November 16, 2007 at 06:56 PM (#2617593)
Betemit should be the lefthanded part of any platoon. He should never bat right handed again, as far as I'm concerned. Small sample and all, but still: 232/281/353 lifetime as a RH hitter.
Argh, I made a total hash of that point.

So maybe a Betemit/Duncan platoon. It wouldn't be pretty defensively, but I still think an .800 OPS is possible.
   77. rr Posted: November 16, 2007 at 07:12 PM (#2617615)
I work with a hardcore Yankee fan and a hardcore Red Sox fan, transplants to SD, both nice guys, and they asked me the other day what I thought about the whole ARod-Lowell "thing."

If ARod had left, (I will assume he is going to sign the 10/275 deal that has been rumored) I think it would have been a mistake for the Yankees to sign Lowell. The Yankees remain committed to many old guys, and Cashman has said he wants the team to get younger. Bringing in ANOTHER 34-year-old, who is a not a superstar, to fill a hole, on a 4-year deal, is exactly what the Yankees need to avoid doing. Betemit may or may not be able to do a decent job (I think he can) but I think had ARod left, the Yankees should have given Betemit a try.

Rivera and Posada, and of course Rodriguez himself, are a different matter than Lowell for obvious reasons. But, from the POV of the Red Sox, as one poster said, you have to look at the big picture, long-term: the Yankees, if all these contracts are signed, will have enormous amounts of money tied up in some very old players 2-3 years from now and beyond. That is going to hurt them in some respects, clearly, and help them in others. It will almost certianly make them better in 2008 and maybe 2009 than they would have been otherwise. It is, however, no guarantee that the 2008 Yankees will be better than the 2007 Yankees. It would have saved money and added youth and flexibility.

I think the Red Sox, given their situation, can make a better case for giving Lowell four years. But I also think Epstein will be reluctant to do it and for good reasons. One seminal lesson from the early Bill James: no one player makes or breaks a team. Even if Lowell leaves Boston, Lester/Buchholz/Pedroia/Ramirez in a contract drive/Drew/Lugo/Matsuzaka after an adjustment year could all make the Red Sox as good or better than they were in 2007.

It's called having a little bit of perspective about things. You guys should give it a try
.

This will no doubt be quite unwelcome coming from me but what the hell. I have noted for some time that you seem to assume, about many issues, like our disagreements over the issue of payroll, that anybody who doesn't see it your way somehow lacks perspective while you are seeing all sides. Given the white-hot intensity of your Red Sox fandom, I find this to be quite suspect. You provide a lot of good, cogent analysis, but in some ways, it is you, like all of us sometimes, who needs "a little bit of perspective on things."
   78. hangfire59 Posted: November 16, 2007 at 08:06 PM (#2617690)
who is not thinking here !! hello !! all sox fans are celebrating the stupidity of the pin stipe pansies for resigning the guy who not only has not helped them win (or any other team he was on ) , for a srediculous 10 years ! we dont have to worry about the pansies for ten years ! they (bronx bambies)have done the same thing and are expecting different results ! they have the same team as last year with even less pitching .hello ..wake up yank lovers , remember slappy the ball slapper 2004 ?changed the whole series and killed a rally ! but I guess with boy derek maybe going to jail for tax evasion , they need someone to get attention on the field ! plus this takes the stanks out of the lowell race they cant afford to spend anymore on a non pitcher .they still have to sign mary ann o and andy (why he long face) peteete ! and pay all the other non pitchers they have on the payroll ! the yanks are only signing a -rip because the boy george's sons want to sell the franchise and the network as soon as big daddy croaks !! a-rip increases the market share revenue value aka( raises the asking price ), but bronx fans are too dumb too see the business side , they are too busy bowing to monuments of dead heroes to see the forest in flames in front of them ! its a beautiful day in sox land , keep signing losers georgie boy , does randy johnson ring a bell !! no one wanted a-rip , they could have sat and waited and got him in jan. for pennies on the dollar ! maybe jeter can list a-rip as a dependant and get another tax dodge !! ps. any chance of jeter and barry bonds sharing a cell , I know which one will be picking up the soap bars !! the one who already wears stripes !! ha ha.. go sox forever !!
   79. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: November 16, 2007 at 08:13 PM (#2617702)
Now that's how you make a first post! Bizarre punctuation, a number of mispellings and typos, getting a bunch of facts wrong, nonsensical nicknames, a wholly unsupported theory and finally homosexual implications.

A tour de force, really.
   80. Nasty Nate Posted: November 16, 2007 at 08:21 PM (#2617714)
am I the only one who thinks there is some Yankee fan cooking up these Sox fan internet personas like MattLee and hangfire to make us look bad?

although, " they are too busy bowing to monuments of dead heroes to see the forest in flames in front of them !" is a good line even if its wrong.
   81. hangfire59 Posted: November 16, 2007 at 08:23 PM (#2617717)
note to sox fans ... what is all this the "sox will be worse with out lowell" stuff ? thats what they said when we lost damon ? and they said that when we sent nomar packing for doug menk. this whole thing is just a repeat of the johnny damon thing to the tee !keep the faith guys !!youre forgetting we will have ellsbury all season with pedroia in the order , thats good for a lotta r.b.i.'s ..relax and dont buy into the bronx hype machine nonsense ..remember they got damon we got the series !!
   82. The Yankee Clapper Posted: November 16, 2007 at 08:24 PM (#2617718)
Even for Sox Therapy, #80 seems like a stretch.
   83. hangfire59 Posted: November 16, 2007 at 08:25 PM (#2617719)
what do you want ,good grammar or good tase ??
   84. Toby Posted: November 16, 2007 at 08:31 PM (#2617728)
I think it's the hyperbole that gets Darren in trouble. He's not "surprised" or "disappointed" that A-Rod goes back with the Yankees, he's "totally stunned". Trading Renteria wasn't a case of "selling low" which was a "bad idea", it's a case of "dumping" that was a "panic move".

That, and the fact that the hyperbole -- when it is present -- seems more often pointed in the pants-pissing direction than in the just-peachy direction.
   85. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: November 16, 2007 at 08:32 PM (#2617729)
am I the only one who thinks there is some Yankee fan cooking up these Sox fan internet personas like MattLee and hangfire to make us look bad?
You know, I thought this was crazy, but after #85...
   86. ellsbury my heart at wounded knee Posted: November 16, 2007 at 08:32 PM (#2617731)
It's like we have our own battlefob.
   87. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: November 16, 2007 at 08:32 PM (#2617732)
what do you want ,good grammar or good tase ??


Why do we have to choose between the two? I like good grammar and a good tasing.
   88. rr Posted: November 16, 2007 at 08:49 PM (#2617752)
am I the only one who thinks there is some Yankee fan cooking up these Sox fan internet personas like MattLee and hangfire to make us look bad?


Yeah. With Pettitte off the payroll for now, they have more for "covert ops" in the budget.
   89. The Essex Snead Posted: November 16, 2007 at 09:06 PM (#2617776)
what do you want ,good grammar or good tase

DON'T TASE ME BRO!!!!!
   90. Nasty Nate Posted: November 16, 2007 at 09:20 PM (#2617793)
they have more for "covert ops" in the budget


especially since Project Mr. May wrapped up some time ago
   91. Darren Posted: November 17, 2007 at 03:03 AM (#2618102)
I think it's the hyperbole that gets Darren in trouble. He's not "surprised" or "disappointed" that A-Rod goes back with the Yankees, he's "totally stunned". Trading Renteria wasn't a case of "selling low" which was a "bad idea", it's a case of "dumping" that was a "panic move".


"Totally stunned" is not hyperbole. I was really, really shocked that he went back. If he wanted to stay with the Yanks, I didn't think he'd opt out 9 days early, thereby costing the Yanks a bunch of dough. If the Yanks wanted to keep him, I didn't think they'd repeatedly say he was gone and not coming back. As for "panic move" I think it's the wrong term but not a case of hyperbole. No, I think my problem here is that anything that I write that's less than positive is taken as a huge insult to the Red Sox and their fans.

I guess maybe I keep dreaming of a day where Jeter and A-Rod will be in their late 30s, hobbling around the left side of their infield costing the Yankees an unfathomable amount of runs defensively while not making up for it with their bat anymore. Oh, and Posada will be behind the plate doing the same thing.


Late 30s, that's what, 6 years from now? It's a nice thought that these guys will be stinking it up and hampering the Yanks financially by then, but I can't see it happening. One of them will be able to hack it in LF or 1B, one will be at DH or on the bench. And they'll still have plenty of money left over to field a great team, especially if they keep producing good young players and salaries keep inflating.

The Yankees racked up a bunch of bad contracts over the past couple years and it hasn't hurt them. Giambi's making $20 mil and is a part timer. Kei Igawa get 5/45 and spent the year in AAA. Damon's a year removed from his 4/52 deal and he's a part timer. Tightpants is a $6 mil. mop-up man.
   92. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: November 17, 2007 at 03:22 AM (#2618116)
No, I think my problem here is that anything that I write that's less than positive is taken as a huge insult to the Red Sox and their fans.


Darren, I think what perplexes folks, myself included, is that phrases like, "this turn of events really changed the dynamic between the Red Sox and Yankees" and "things were looking a lot better for Boston," come across as somewhat desperate cries, which seem out of place for a fan of a team that just won its second World Series in four years.

I wish Arod had left the Yankees, in part because I wanted to root for him elsewhere. Of course, the nice thing is that since he willingly reupped with a franchise where he was kind of crapped upon for four years, I'm kind of free to dislike him without guilt now.

But even with this development, for the next few months there is really no such thing as "Not a Good Day for the Red Sox."
   93. Darren Posted: November 17, 2007 at 04:11 AM (#2618168)
Darren, I think what perplexes folks, myself included, is that phrases like, "this turn of events really changed the dynamic between the Red Sox and Yankees" and "things were looking a lot better for Boston," come across as somewhat desperate cries, which seem out of place for a fan of a team that just won its second World Series in four years.


These comments are about the future of the team. The championships are in the past. If you're reading them as desperate cries then that comes from how you're reading them more than how they are written.

I wish Arod had left the Yankees, in part because I wanted to root for him elsewhere. Of course, the nice thing is that since he willingly reupped with a franchise where he was kind of crapped upon for four years, I'm kind of free to dislike him without guilt now.


Well put. I wanted him off the team because I actually felt sort of bad for him. It'd be fun to see him succeed elsewhere and be appreciated. (Also felt his absence would hurt the Yanks a lot.) And now that he's chosen to return to NY, all that sympathy I felt for him disappeared. If he stays there after the way he's been treated, he must either like the abuse or must not care. I'm going to enjoy seeing Yankees fans blaming him for every problem the team has.

But even with this development, for the next few months there is really no such thing as "Not a Good Day for the Red Sox."


It's just one day. It's okay to admit that it's not good.
   94. rr Posted: November 17, 2007 at 04:35 AM (#2618183)
The Yankees racked up a bunch of bad contracts over the past couple years and it hasn't hurt them. Giambi's making $20 mil and is a part timer. Kei Igawa get 5/45 and spent the year in AAA. Damon's a year removed from his 4/52 deal and he's a part timer. Tightpants is a $6 mil. mop-up man.


This is true to an extent, but I am not sure that even the Yankees budget is limitless, and if it is not, it may be hurting them. In addition, there is the issue of playing time/ opportunity cost, which is often intertwined with large, bad salary outlays. The Yankees avoided this to a degree with the guys you mentioned; benching or demoting Posada, Jeter and Rivera may be harder. Remember Bernie Williams. And even if it is not "hurting" them, it is not helping them either. Finally, it is very hard to picture Rivera at 41, Posada at 39, Jeter at 37, and ARod at 36 being, collectively, as effective as they are now--and they will be making the same money they are making now while possibly blocking other players.

which seem out of place for a fan of a team that just won its second World Series in four years


This is part of it, and, apparently, it is a reaction even among some Red Sox fans. Given some of the stuff I have said, I understand this, but in some ways (and I am aiming this more at myself and others than at you) it is also, of course, just a reactive thing, not an analytical point: "Don't ##### after your team wins."

These comments are about the future of the team. The championships are in the past.


Fair point. But, the 2004 championship was highly unusual: rarely, in sports, or in life, is payback so exquisitely structured or so dramatic. I think the only way the Red Sox could have topped it for their fans would be if they had beaten the Mets, rather than the Cardinals, in the World Series--and even so it was the Cardinals who ended The Impossible Dream in 1967. And while the 2007 title is "in the past" it was about four weeks ago, and featured several young players who are going to be helping the Red Sox win games for years to come.
   95. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: November 17, 2007 at 04:45 AM (#2618191)

DON'T TASE ME BRO!!!!!


You should be worried. They tase the White people all the time... saving the bullets for us.
   96. Toby Posted: November 17, 2007 at 04:45 AM (#2618192)
Anything you say is a "huge insult" to the Red Sox and their fans? Is that a case of hyperbole, this time?

Darren, I don't think there's a problem. You are doing a great job and you are generating a lot of good discussion. This is a big tent, we are all going to disagree about things from time to time. Some of us are more deferential on a day-to-day basis because we recognize we are living in the golden age of Red Sox fandom. This *is* the land of Canaan, sweetheart.

My son, who just turned 5, is being raised down here in Oriole country and my wife's family is all Orioles all the time. That's fine with me -- he can choose the O's, the Nats, whatever. He told me the other day "Daddy, I root for the Red Sox. The Red Sox always win." How astonishing is that? Yeah, he seems to be a frontrunner. But yeah, the Red Sox do always win, in his experience.

My daughter just turned 2. When she was born I was worried that the Red Sox had won a World Series in her brother's lifetime but not hers. I thought that would give him bragging rights over her for years. Then the Sox went and clinched a Series sweep on her birthday.

They have been running around the living room for days with their new Red Sox World Series Champions 2007 caps.

I remember what things were like here in Sox Therapy on Old Primer when the Henry group bought the team. People were screaming and gnashing their teeth over the idea that a Selig salary cap crony had taken over the team. Theo made his statement about this being a $100 million player development machine and just about everyone screamed (were you one of them?) that this meant payroll slashing, down to $100M. I saw it as a statement that "we are going to develop players like the A's but with a ton more money to spend, too."

In 2003 after the crushing loss in the ALCS I remember writing something to the effect, this season was grand; this was our finest hour in my lifetime, and I am old enough (born 1967) to remember '75, '78, '86. 2003, I said, was just the beginning, it is morning in Red Sox Nation, and we are just beginning what looks to be a hell of a run.

So you'll forgive me if I don't lose sleep over whether we burn ourselves out in September to clinch the division, or where A-Rod ends up, or who plays third base if Lowell leaves. I care, sure. I worry. But from where I sit, this Red Sox regime -- Henry, Theo, Tito, et al. -- has earned a certain amount of trust. I'm a fan, yes, and I'm a critic too, but I'm also a subscriber.

I have kids who run around the living room with their World Champs caps on. Their world is a world in which the Red Sox always win. It's a beautiful thing. Faith and hope? Optimism? Under my roof, absolutely.
   97. Darren Posted: November 17, 2007 at 05:14 AM (#2618211)
I'm glad you feel good about the team. I do too.

Darren, I don't think there's a problem. You are doing a great job and you are generating a lot of good discussion. This is a big tent, we are all going to disagree about things from time to time. Some of us are more deferential on a day-to-day basis because we recognize we are living in the golden age of Red Sox fandom. This *is* the land of Canaan, sweetheart.


I don't mind if people disagree. What I object to is the "lighten up you sad sack pantspisser" comments every time I write anything negative. Someone needs to lighten up and it's the people who cry over any non-sunshiney comment out of fear that it will somehow prevent them from enjoying the Red Sox success.
   98. hangfire59 Posted: November 17, 2007 at 06:51 AM (#2618273)
sorry guys , didnt realize this was such an english sensitive group . can I make it up with an extra credit assignment ? jeez , what did you do here , become english teachers after failing the toll collectors test on the pike ? I promise to do better on the mid-term .
   99. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: November 17, 2007 at 08:29 AM (#2618294)
#80 was the greatest post in the history of BTF. I will hear no arguments.
   100. Phil Coorey is a T-Shirt Salesman Posted: November 17, 2007 at 09:23 AM (#2618299)
sorry guys , didnt realize this was such an english sensitive group . can I make it up with an extra credit assignment ? jeez , what did you do here , become english teachers after failing the toll collectors test on the pike ? I promise to do better on the mid-term .

It wasn't just that young man. My girls are a month old, and they make more sense than you do...
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