I'm with ya, Toby (with the exception of Schilling, who would appear to be a crucial building block for '07).

I'd also say it's time to start shutting down some injury-afflicted folks (Lester, Manny?).

Plugging in some prospects can get them familiar enough with a major league environment that they have a better chance of contributing in '07. Though I don't know who, after Pedroia, this applies to.

There really are a boatload of NL teams who should be thinking they could get lucky and enjoy a post-season appearance this year. Maybe someone's desperate enough to give up a little something of value to fill a need.

Someone in another thread asserted that Wells cleared waivers. I would expect that he could help many teams, and if SoCal is his wish, both the Padres and Dodgers are close enough to in it to be able to use five starts at somewhat better than league-average.

The Twins could use a near-average six start guy if he came cheap. They're on fumes in the rotation right now and it's going to start hurting their pen soon. If Wells (for example) would come to MN for the fall we'd dump him over the winter if he'd like. Of course, he's this close to retiring anyway so maybe the thought of a fun romp to the post-season might get his blood flowing for six weeks.

It's been reported several places that Wells cleared waivers. When we was put through waivers ~Aug 1, he'd yet to show he was healthy, thus no claim (he'd had only the 7/31 start vs Cleveland where he went 4.2 IP, 8 ER). He would have to be the most marketable commodity on the roster, as TVerik notes.

It's hard to see who else would be of value to a nominal contender. San Diego's "solved" its 3B problems with Branyan, the Tigers have "solved" their 2B problems with Neifi, so there's no obvious home for Lowell or Loretta. I can't think of anything snark-free to say about any relievers the Sox could deal, so I won't.

Wells to the Padres or Dodgers makes a lot of sense. He's pitched well the last few times out, so the Sox might be able to get a decent, albeit low-level prospect for him.

Who do the Padres have at 3B now? Would they have any interest in Lowell if the Sox ate, say, half his salary? Having Hinske means the Sox can move Lowell and not even wonder who plays 1B or 3B, which would not have been the case before he arrived.

Would the Mets offer anything for Loretta?

All relievers over 26 should also be made available, but I don't imagine the Sox would get anything of value in return. They might be able to dump a little salary.

"If Wells (for example) would come to MN for the fall we'd dump him over the winter if he'd like."

Isn't his contract up anyway? I thought it was a two-year deal.

Isn't his contract up anyway? I thought it was a two-year deal.

Yes.

I don't think we're going to get anything of value for anything that we can afford to sell at this point. What do you think you'll get for 5 starts of Wells? I can't imagine it being anything more than a C prospect.

"What do you think you'll get for 5 starts of Wells? I can't imagine it being anything more than a C prospect."

Don't forget playoff starts: any team that trades for him will likely get more than 5. So maybe, if they're lucky, the Sox get a B- or (very lucky) even a B prospect for him. At which point he's worth trading.

The downside of trading him is that it is an official white flag, which might bug some of the players. But I think most of them will look to themselves of their teammates when they ask what went wrong this year. And the fans are going to complain anyway, though I suppose such trades will give more ammunition to them and to certain local columnists. I don't think that's important.

I'm not sure trading Lowell or Loretta would even hurt the Sox much on the field at this point, so if they can get anything for either one of them, they should probably do it. Wells would be a hit, because our pitching obviously sucks. But the FO needs to look to next year.

I do agree with OleP about Schilling: we need him for next year.

If the Sox hold onto Wells, they could get draft picks if he's signed by another team, right? I would say that right now it's probably 50/50 on whether he continues to pitch or just hangs it up, unless he's made statements that I haven't seen. So if the Sox could get a warm body for him for the cost of five or so starts in a lost season, I think they have to do it.

And a possible bidding war could make the prospect worthier - if the Sox have a mind to, they could open up the bidding to the Yankees, who would have to at least consider it, IMO.

Are We Buyers or Sellers?

When ever you ask that question the answer is always sell.

I'm going to take the opposite tack. Boston's still well within striking distance of a postseason slot, and the Twins and White Sox still have difficult games remaining (including three games each at Fenway; the Twins also have to go to Yankee Stadium for three). The Red Sox play 17 of their last 28 at home, and have only one really tough road series left when they get back from the coast (4 at Yankee). Why not try to shore up a weak spot or two? There will probably be someone out there who can help the pen and who will be available for very little cost. You're not going to get anything approaching reasonable value for any of the saleable chits now; the time to see what you can do to build for next season is in this offseason.

"You're not going to get anything approaching reasonable value for any of the saleable chits now."

Loretta and Wells become FAs at the end of the season, and I'm not sure the Sox will offer arbitration to either (what do others think?). If they do not, then this is their only chance to get anything for them.

I don't know if Lowell has any value right now, but he may have even less in the offseason: right now, a team might justify trading for him as reinforcement for a playoff push. That applies to the relievers as well. For a FO looking to help their club, there are far fewer targets available now than there will be in December.

Ever since the Sox lost the fourth game of the Yankee series, I've thought not that they are simply too far behind, but rather that they are simply not good enough to catch the teams ahead of them. The Seattle series reinforced that opinion, as well as making things mathematically much harder.

Mike makes good points.

If Mr. Sunshine hadn't jumped off the window ledge after the MFY series, it might even be enough reason to start getting my hopes up again.

But... Manny's knee, Lester's back, Timlin's corpse. Add to 'Tek, Trot, Wake, etc. There are just an awful lot of weak spots to shore up. (Which was, of course, what the pessimists were saying before the MFY series.)

If we are buyers, Robothal reports this rumor:

Orioles right-hander LaTroy Hawkins remains available for teams seeking another bullpen arm. The Red Sox and Rangers have been among the teams interested.

Loretta and Wells become FAs at the end of the season, and I'm not sure the Sox will offer arbitration to either (what do others think?). If they do not, then this is their only chance to get anything for them.

I think that the Sox will probably not offer arbitration to either. But I think that both - Wells more than Loretta - are still more valuable to the Sox as members of the roster down the stretch than they are as trade bait. I don't see either fetching more than a marginal prospect in return (Loretta might not even fetch that much unless the Sox chip in some money as well), and the Sox can't really afford to deal a starting pitcher if they have any hopes of catching any of the teams ahead of them, IMO.

I don't know if Lowell has any value right now, but he may have even less in the offseason: right now, a team might justify trading for him as reinforcement for a playoff push. That applies to the relievers as well. For a FO looking to help their club, there are far fewer targets available now than there will be in December.

In the offseason, though, it's easier to package a guy like Lowell in a four or five-player trade where he's one of the "sweeteners", so to speak - and you're more likely to get value in return for the total package. And Lowell still has some value now in a postseason push.

The point is, still, that Boston is close, they have games with the teams in front of them - and at Fenway - plus enough games against lesser lights to make a race of it with the team as currently constructed. At best, if you go into dump mode now, you improve the team marginally for next season - and you still have a fair amount of radical surgery to do anyway before 2007. The odds of making the postseason aren't good, to be sure, but they aren't bad enough to justify packing it in for this season, IMO, especially when what you have to offer other contenders isn't likely to fetch you much of anything, and what you have on hand to replace it isn't a whole lot better (if that).

-- MWE

The Law of Averages would seem to indicate that Boston will play better for the balance of the season, so while it is obviously unlikely they will pass Chicago, Minnesota or New York, I don't think they should dump anybody. The only exception would be if they had Bobby Abreu, in which case they would be well-advised to get rid of him immediately and pick up Jeff Conine.

Loretta can go at the end of the season, and it won't be a tragedy if they get nothing for him. His salary will be off the books. Same with Wells.

They need to do a better job this year than last, however. We don't have beeter young talent than the Marlins or the Devil Rays, so we must use the salary flexibility produced by the new talent, and the increase in capability as it matures, to sign some really top quality players who can carry the team. Loretta, Lowell, Tavarez, Wells, Foulke and Seanez are all, in that context, a waste of resources that could be better used. Average players we should be able to develop for ourselves; it's the top ones for which we need to open the checkbook.

I'm nearly persuaded by Mike at this point, even though I have no real hope that the Sox will make it. (Good point about Lowell in a multi-player deal.) So, if I was running the team, I would dangle some players, but only make a deal if you were going to get someone you really thought would help in the next two or three years-- which isn't terribly likely. If that opportunity arose, though, I would take it, precisely for the reasons OleP cites in no. 14.

But I would also look into Hawkins and other over-priced relievers out there, assuming they can be acquired without a remotely significant prospect involved.

I think I would offer Wells arbitration. It seems very unlikely he'll take it, and even if he does, he might (might) end up being worth it. It might be too risky to offer Loretta arbitration, even though I think some team will probably sign him for a couple of years.

Like PJ, Mike has talked me around. Not in the sense of getting my hopes up, but in the cold-blooded, play-out-this-hand sense. We're like a hold-'em player who knows he's likely whipped but is pot-committed; there's low marginal cost to paying to see the river card, and little marginal benefit to mucking the cards just yet.

But if Manny blows out that knee in September, or Lester gets a cascade injury, or 'Tek comes back early and wrecks his knee... I'll be kicking myself for not sticking with Toby's fold-'em advice.

Oh, and speaking of injury risk, Will Carroll had this interesting info on BP today:

The Red Sox continue to struggle with injuries. Last season, they lost 552 days to injury, good for a whopping 12% of their payroll. This year, they're already at 700 days and 14%, not the direction they were hoping to go. The latest injury is to Jon Lester, who was sent back to Boston for tests on his sore lower back. Lester has no history of this injury; early indications are that the problem is muscular, caused by fatigue over the course of the season eventually wearing on the small, often underdeveloped muscles of the lower back. Lester is below his career high for innings, a definite negative here.

The big assumption is in Mike's logic is "I don't see either [Wells or Loretta] fetching more than a marginal prospect in return", thus "At best, if you go into dump mode now, you improve the team marginally for next season". General consensus here is that this is likely the case, and as such would argue for standing pat.

To the extent that you're only getting a marginal prospect back, sure you don't sell. But GMs have been known to do some pretty silly things, and you don't know what the market will bear unless you're out there working it. You have to be out there figuring out what you can get for these guys. There's a 95% chance they won't be assets at all in 6 weeks.

(The caveat, of course, is the clubhouse/fan reaction to a "white flag" move, of which I'm only concerned about a lingering clubhouse effect. I make no judgement about this and cede this assessment to the FO.)

Many poor hold em players cite pot odds as a reason to keep going to the flop hoping to hit the miracle card. If you've read the hand right, the decision is binary: either you can get a return that's a net benefit to your team, all things considered, or you stand pat and hope for lightning in a bottle. Failing to act decisively is the hallmark of poker players who willingly and consistently put money into the pot at a disadvantage.

(Anyway, I'd be very surprised if he wasn't being actively shopped, and at the same time very surprised if they could find a suitable buyer.)

I make no judgement about this and cede this assessment to the FO.

Re-reading this made me laugh. Makes it sound as though Theo is waiting to get a call from me to see whether I felt Papi would be upset by trading Wells.

I'm shocked that many would considered selling at this point - staying the course seems like a no brainer.

Right now San Diego has todd walker at 3rd. Who has hit a respectable 304/418/464.
I guess the only reason for Lowel would be depth. Wells though would have a possbile place, since Park is on the DL but I'm not sure he'd make the post season rotation.

I think the Sox should draw the line right around one B prospect for Wells, and getting that is not entirely out of the question. The Rays got a much larger haul for Lugo, who is a better player, but serves basically as injury insurance. If the Red Sox could get a B prospect, something that the Dodgers have coming out of their ears, they'd be in good shape.

I'm not shocked at all. It's perfectly rational to say, "We still have a chance at the playoffs, but it's a pretty slim one. Let's evaluate what our few salable assets might bring in the market and see whether that return would outweigh the (a) impact to our 2006 pennant options, (b) fan perception, and (c) clubhouse perception."

Why wouldn't you go through this evaluation? The answer to the above is most likely that there's nothing out there that would be good enough to make it worthwhile, but the postseason chance of this team is pretty much a pipe dream with the current state of the roster. Give someone else a chance to make a mistake.

I'm going to stop, because it's too fine a point by now. There's likely no good move that can be made, and the FO has likely figured out roughly what interested teams would be willing to consider parting with.

SELL EVERYBODY!!!

Seriously, I'd dump the upcoming FA's, dump Tavarez, trade Lowell to get rid of the salary, trade Cora because he has value, and so on and so forth. Give Tavarez away for free. Trade nobody young.

The latest injury is to Jon Lester, who was sent back to Boston for tests on his sore lower back. Lester has no history of this injury; early indications are that the problem is muscular, caused by fatigue over the course of the season eventually wearing on the small, often underdeveloped muscles of the lower back. Lester is below his career high for innings, a definite negative here.

According to WEEI, Lester's sore back is a result of a trauma suffered in a car accident, just before his start in the Yankee series.

Not sure if this makes the Sox buyers or sellers. Anyone got a clue?

Sox & Reds Swap Relievers..............(Calm down, it's not Tavarez.)

Burns was optioned to Triple-A Louisville on June 26th after compiling an 8-point-78 E-R-A in 11 relief appearances.

I like how the article spells this out to highlight just how crappy he's been. OTOH, he should fit right in!

In an unrelated note, the Sox are recalling this guy when rosters expand: Exxxxxxcellent...

It's gotten to the point where, if the Red Sox acquired him, I assume he will fall apart or he already sucks. It doesn't make sense, but that's how it feels.

Looking closer at that trade, Burns looks like the kind of guy who could turn into a nice middle reliever. He's pitched very well since being put in the pen a couple years ago, and only struggled in his 11 appearances in the majors this year. Bausher, on the other had, has had pretty lousy peripherals. If the Angels or White Sox had made this same trade, I'd assume this was going to work out well for them. But not with the Red Sox. I applaud the move even though I cannot believe it'll work.

On Wells, I wouldn't blame the Sox if they kept him regardless. They have a better idea of what will keep the fans happy and coming to the park. They may feel they need to at least look like they're stll in it to win it.

How much money does Foulke have on his contract? The guy is done like a burnt hamburger.

Darren, let me correct this:

Looking closer at that trade, Burns looks like the kind of guy who could turn into a nice middle reliever for the Pawtucket team.

Talk about making a trade just for the sake of making a trade. Someone park the Titanic in the Boston harbor; Theo wants to move chairs around the deck...

I was in Norway all week. The fjords are beautiful.

I checked the standings on Monday, then went to a bar and got very drunk. (Which is frickin' expensive, by the way, like $7 for mediocre local pilsner.) I spent my days at a conference, and kept in bars and away from internet after hte conference. This team sucks.

I read today that Papi had returned to Boston from the road trip because of an irregular heartbeat. #### fuck ####.

Yes, this is the commentary I've been saving up after being away for 10 days.

Welcome back, MCoA.

Looking at fjords is a much, much better use of one's time than following these Sox. Mr. Sunshine is very sorry for having tried to convince people to keep their sunny side up prior to Massacre 2.

On the plus side... Well, there really is no plus side right now. It feels very much like the last 6 weeks of '01.

Clearly OlePerfesser thinks looking at fjords is better because he thinks this team is fjucked.

The Sox are now 6 back of the WC, in third place, and 7 back of NY. They have a better chance at the division than hte WC. It's time to sell, and sell hard.

A few days ago, maybe they should've tried to stand pat, keep options open, and not sell for less than a B prospect type. That time has passed, the season has ended. Sell. See if any of the AA/AAA pitchers have anything - Dinardo, Smith, Martinez, Breslow, Zink, all of 'em.

Matt:

Are you actually endorsing bringing all those guys up and trying them out? I understand, and probably agree, that the season's over for Boston, but are all those guys ready?

Are you actually endorsing bringing all those guys up and trying them out? I understand, and probably agree, that the season's over for Boston, but are all those guys ready?

It'll be September anyway. None of them are actual prospects at this point, all are 25 or older. You don't start their options clock, and you don't have them learning in a pennant race. If one of them shows something at the MLB level, it'll be more than we expected, and it could help the team for 2007.

I don't advocate bringing all of them into the rotation or bullpen at once, as that would most likely create a wave of extra innings for hte other pitchers to cover. But there's no reason for David Wells to pitch another inning for the Red Sox, and there's no reason for Keith Foulke to be anywhere but the disabled list.

I don't think the Red Sox should call up their actual prospects at AA/AAA - Ellsbury and Hansen. I don't think they should call up any of the kids who have some small potential to be players in 2-3 years - Spann, Moss, Kyle Jackson, or even Hottovy and Dobies. I just think they should take the mid-20s, career minor leaguer brigade and give them a shot.

I'm with MC on this. Ortiz may miss more time down the stretch, and the Sox should obviously take no chances there. Manny will also be missing time, it seems, and I don't think the Sox should take chances with his knees, either. Or Lester's back.

It's time to sell.

Buster Olney says the Sox are shopping Wells.

Here's the link:

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2565280

In Buster's view, "the contending teams that make sense as possible suitors for Wells would include the Mets, Twins, Diamondbacks, Padres, Dodgers, Phillies, Cardinals, A's and the Reds." The way that's worded suggests that list is not based on inside knowledge. Nonetheless, it seems reasonable to me. And more than one of those teams has a deep farm system. Maybe the Sox can pry a low-level B prospect from somebody.

Weren't the Diamondbacks the team Wells almost signed with, before he made a new deal with Steinbrenner?

Trading him to the Twins would be a real white flag move. I wonder how that would sit in Boston.

"I wonder how that would sit in Boston."

Only the most delusional diehards think the Sox have any chance at this point-- and those people will come back and root for the team next year. I think the Sox have to screw up a couple of years in a row before they take a significant hit at the box office. With that in mind, the Sox need to free up some payroll so they can sign two of the best FA starting pitchers available this offeason, in my opinion.

That probably means dealing a subsidized Lowell and moving Youkilis to 3B, putting some kind of platoon at 1B, Pedroia at 2B, and Lugo or Gonzalez again at SS. (Or they could put Pedroia at SS and sign one of the many FA 2Bmen.) They would also need to pay about half of Clement's salary and send him to some NL team, and possibly stretch out Tavarez for long relief and possibly even spot starting if necessary. Maybe they can sign Borowski or somebody to set up Papelbon, who stays in the pen for at least one more year.

If Beckett and Crisp rebound and Manny and Ortiz stay healthy, such a team could contend next year, I think.

A couple posts earlky in this thread alluded to the Sox getting draft picks for losing FA's. As an article under discussion here yesterday atated, that is no longer the case under the new CBA.

I'd trade Wells for no less than a solid B prospect, and I might hold out for more. I think the postseason is a dream (work than 40-1 are Baseball Prospectus's odds), but if there isn't much to be gained from a trade, hold out for a good return and maybe one of the buyers will panic and offer something sweet. If nothing happens, we can hope for a miracle, games will be more interesting for a little while, the average fan will be happy that we aren't white-flagging, and we won't have another subtraction from the sickly starting rotation.

I'd sell. Yes, the team has a chance at the postseason. Yes, by winning games against the White Sox, Twins, Yankees, etc., the Sox could climb back into the race. The problem is twofold:

(1) When healthy, this Sox team is probably about as good as the teams it's chasing -- not significantly better, but roughly as good, but the Sox would have to sweep those other team (or come close) in order to have a chance to make the postseason. It's unlikely that even a healthy version of this team, playing as well as it's capable, would do singificantly better than split any remaining games with the Yankees, Tigers, White Sox, Twins, etc.. Could they do better? Yes, absolutely, but the odds are a lot better on a rough split of the games than they are on a healthy version of the Sox's winning most-to-all of them. And the Sox would need to win that many just to have a chance.

(2) The above paragraph assumes a healthy Sox team. This team is far from healthy (to say the least). As of right now, 6 of the top 9 (nonpitcher) OPSs on this team are on the DL or are hurting enough so as to miss games. 6! If we call Wily Mo Pena a center fielder, that's 6 of 9 starters: Varitek, Gonzalez, Ramirez, Pena, Nixon, and Ortiz are all hurt or hurting. For pitchers, it's 4 of the top 7 starting pitchers in the organization (ignoring Papelbon): Wakefield, Clement, Lester, and Dinardo are all hurt or hurting. There's no way to look at the team that the Sox can actually put out there and think that it's good enough to climb back into the race unless several players get "Aaron Small lucky."

Good teams get hot, but the Red Sox would need to count on its happening to even have a chance of getting back into the race. Moreover, the healthy part of the team is just not that good a team right now, making the odds of a hot streak a LOT worse. And there's not enough time left in the season for players like Ramirez and Ortiz and Pena and Nixon to come back and make a significant difference. A really good player might be worth about 7 wins over a replacement player... but over the course of a season. The Sox need their healthy players to come back now and be about twice as good as they are for the last month just to climb back into the race.

Emotionally, I hate giving up -- I think this was a good team that caught some bad breaks -- but I think (unemotionally) that if there's a chance to improve next year's team, I take it (assuming the trade is right).

I kept checking the date for most of these posts, as I can't believe anyone can realistically think the Sox have more than a 1-2% chance of making the playoffs. Sell anything you can, especially Wells since he's supposedly retiring. God this is ugly.

They would also need to pay about half of Clement's salary and send him to some NL team

HALF? He's due $9.5 mil next year, wasn't very good this year when healthy, and is a big question mark health-wise on top of that. Even last off-season, he was getting offered around, but no one bit.

Asking another team to take a nearly $5 million flyer is a bit optimistic, unless the other team is send their overpaid carcass back in return. If Clement was a FA, he'd probably be looking at $1 mil make-good deal w/ incentives, I think - similar to Ponson got this past offseason.

I want to see Wells traded and I think a B prospect is attainable. There are a lot of suitors and there's little else out there that can compare to Wells.

You're probably right about Clement. In my half-hearted defense, I did say "about half," which might be up to, say, 6m. Even that might not be enough, though.

And, now that I think about it, maybe one bona fide starter would do. Schmidt, Zito, Mulder, Radke... Someone along those lines. So you have a rotation of Schilling, Schmidt, Beckett, Lester and Wakefield, with Clement in the pen. The Sox really need to sign the best FA starter available, even if it means outbidding the Yankees (who may be spending their money and time on Matsuzaka anyway).

Try to sign the best reliever available, too, and hope Hansen and Delcarmen progress. As bad as it's been this year, the Sox could still have a good staff in 2007.

The Sox really need to sign the best FA starter available, even if it means outbidding the Yankees (who may be spending their money and time on Matsuzaka anyway).

I wonder if Uehara would want to come to MLB. He's like the Asian version of Schilling, but 2 less mph on the fastball, and isn't a Republican.

Watanabe for 2007 ROOGY

The Herald and Globe both report that the Red Sox dug up T.J. Mathews (!) and signed him to a minor-league deal.

He's now 36 and was pitching in the Atlantic League. Globe speculates he may be called up after roster expansion.

Um, Kevin Jarvis? Kevin . . . Jarvis?
WTF?

Um, Kevin Jarvis? Kevin . . . Jarvis?
WTF?

Both buying and selling. You know. Like Billy Beane.

Then we're geniuses! Hooray!

I assume we're giving up nothing for Jarvis, right? I can't blame them for wanting to put a couple of warm bodies on the mound to finish out the year. There's really not much of a rotation left.