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1. John DiFool2 Posted: August 17, 2011 at 03:39 PM (#3902302)I think Ortiz is key though. I noticed this in interleague and again yesterday. With him out of there the lineup just suddenly seems a lot shorter.
As a random note I'm at Fenway now. One of the underrated aspects of this experience is the subdued tenor of the pregame. No blaring music, just an organist, and generally you can sit and soak it in.
Lastly, sorry if I offended anyone in the game thread last night. I got a bit heated.
Also, is Gonzalez ever going to hit another home run? He's rolling over pitches and pulling grounders to second at a rate that would be high even for JD Drew, never mind a guy who is normally trying to take almost everything the other way. His GB rate is at a career high (by a lot), and his FB rate is at a career low. His HR/FB is lower than it's been since he had his power breakout in 2007-2008, when we were expecting it to be up with him trading 81 Petco games for 81 Fenway games a year. His ISO is lower than it's been since 2006. Is his shoulder and/or neck bothering him more than he is letting on? He's not driving the ball at all right now. He hit a ball off Shields in the first inning yesterday that I thought would at least hit high off the CF wall if it didn't go out, and it was easily caught by Upton.
Crawford has been better this month overall, but yesterday in the doubleheader he looked beyond awful in every single AB. Have the Sox had his eyes checked out? He's just swinging at pitches that are nowhere close to the zone. I don't know why anyone would ever throw him a strike.
That's just really f*cking bad. No way around it.
Edit-they just seem like they're falling apart right now.
I think a lot of people hopped onto this line of thinking without also allowing for a corresponding better level of pitching in the AL East.
Runs:
Fenway: 1.168
Petco: 0.788
HR:
Fenway: 0.863
Petco: 0.801
2B:
Fenway: 1.444
Petco: 0.873
Now, it's better for HR than Petco, but not that much better, particularly for LHB.
Crawford: .899/.558
Jeter: .912/.656
Seems they are not serving enough carrots in the post-game buffets in AL East.
I so miss pennant races. I was thinking about it last night-This should be one of the epic races of all time between the Sox and the Yanks, a nail biter where every game counts and things get tighter and tighter as the wire approaches. Instead, it's a yawnfest where I check the standings weekly, hope nobody gets injured, and wonder about things like Tito lining up the rotation for the playoffs.
I cannot say how much I hate the wild card-it's robbed August of the glory that once was.
Now to get those kids offa my lawn
I had two Yankees fans lament to me that Fenway is a bandbox. That was fun.
Also, given the travails of the pitching staff, any chance we'll see Varitek relegated to bench coach in Sept, with Lavarnway getting called up? He's become impossible to ignore at AAA.
FWIW, Lavarnway's 2011 MLE right now is roughly in Salty territory - .252/.319/.460 or so.
His role is supposed to be "4th OF and PH against LHP." Do we really need that role anymore? The only regulars whom McDonald should replace (either in the field or as a PH) are Reddick (since he's been pretty bad in the past month) and Saltalamacchia (who surprising is only a SHINO right now). I might include Crawford here, but Tito tends to leave him in, perhaps because of the superior defense. McDonald has a .750 OPS against RHP in limited time, and had an .821 OPS in that dept last year.
So where does that leave him? The team probably needs a righty bat off the bench, especially if Youk goes on the DL and Scutaro remains questionable. They also need a 4th outfielder, especially if Reddick continues going pumpkin. Not saying we should keep McDonald, but if not him, then who else could we get in there that's both available and a better option?
EDIT: There's not even anyone in the minors who we could use as a 4th OF, with the possible exception of Hassan. We traded away the other option (Chiang).
JD Drew? Seriously, what's the story on him? Is he just done or is he coming back soon?
Other than Drew I don't see options existing right now. There is nothing in the minors, a year from now maybe Hassan, Kalish, Brentz or Hazelbaker provides an option but now, zippo. There was talk of Seth Smith around the trade deadline, wonder if he could be slipped through (and for what)? Maybe revisit Carlos Quentin? Reed Johnson is one who might carry a reasonable price tag and just seeing a guy hit .350 with a 15:1 K:BB ratio would be fun.
EDIT: Anybody know how I can find out his stats as a DH versus as a catcher?
That's it? I didn't think Pawtucket was a hitters' park, and I know Portland helps pitchers. To me his stats look like Victor Martinez with a few more strikeouts.
My guess is they'll go with Lowrie until he either gets hurt again (Naehring 2.0, sigh) or until he shows (again) that he can't hit righties. It might be a moot point anyway if Scutaro remains hobbled.
Making the tournament is all that has ever mattered to this front office.
I had the same thought, especially with seven head to head games. Certainly it is very likely that the Sox are in but not a certainty. The Rays are a bit scary because they have the type of pitching staff that could get them on a serious roll.
If you want to split it out:
AA .241/.303/.406
AAA .263/.334/.513
Take these with a few shakes of salt, of course.
That combined line, though - that's basically Victor Martinez who doesn't hit for average.
The AAA line seems about right. Looks like Russell Branyan, with the ability to catch. That wouldn't be bad. I'm hoping he has some development left in that bat, though. Crossing my fingers that it turns him into a Brian McCann-type.
Yeah, I suppose so, though the 30 HR in 110 games looks awfully shiny.
It is is certain ways, i.e. allowing cheap pop-up HR's to LF. But, it takes away legit HRs in other places.
What I hadn't realized before this year is that those cheap pop-up HR's to LF are actually home runs in most other parks, too. Fenway is 310 down the line, but the 40-ft fence probably means that such a ball would cross over a 9-ft fence that is 325 ft from home plate. Haven't looked it up, but I don't think there are many parks that have longer LFs than 325.
The argument those fans made was that it's actually RIGHT field that is the problem. Never mind that it's pretty hard to hit a homer to right that curves around the Pesky Pole, and that it's 380 to the corner.
239/304/364 (Portland)
253/330/475 (Pawtucket)
246/317/419 (combined)
My guess is that the vast majority of MLE methods will like Lavarnway more than MGL's method does, because he's basically the worst possible hitter for the system. Nonetheless, his Pawtucket line looks very nice indeed for a stopgap, and his combined line would be solidly above average for a major league catcher, if he can be that.
Yeah, but LF in Fenway takes away a lot of home runs too. A lot of balls that hit high up the wall would get out in other parks but go for singles or doubles at Fenway.
From 2006-2008, Fenway increased run scoring by about 10%. This increase is entirely a function of Fenway's effects on hits and doubles - it's great for batting average (107 PF), the best doubles park in the universe (143), merely neutral for triples (98) and quite bad for homers (81). This homer dampening effect is seen more for LHB than RHB, as would be expected, but Fenway isn't positive for homers for either set (84 HR-PF for righties, 76 for lefties).
The case you want to make against Fenway, if you care to, is about cheap doubles, not cheap homers. There aren't a lot of cheap homers, and those are more than balanced out by flyouts and doubles which would be homers in a lot of other parks, but you see a good number of pretty meh flyballs that bounce off the wall for doubles (or singles).
FWIW, MCoA, the one I used is the same one that used to be on that Minor League Splits site.
EDIT: There is an "Oh Noes--Where Did Adrian's Power Go?" article on Boston.com right now. I think you just answered it, MCoA.
AG was hitting 30-40 HR in Petco, and is on pace for like 25 or so this year, so even accounting for park factors he's a little on the low side for him (Petco has an insanely low LHB HR factor). Nothing to get too worked up over, though - he could easily flip out and hit 12 more HR this year. He is of course 2nd in the league in doubles.
I got my park factors from ESPN, which seem to match up with MCoAs.
i remember donnie sadler hitting one. it was a pop up that surely would have been an out anywhere else, with the possible exception of the trop ... it may have been high enough to get caught in the catwalks.
It's the bullpen before Bard and Papelbon that I'm worried about.
oh, i do too. he may have some adjustments to make, but if he can keep those k/bb numbers in a reasonable spot, he should be fine.
It's the bullpen before Bard and Papelbon that I'm worried about.
well, i like wheeler. aceves is good for what he is. albers scares me, though. do they give weilend a shot in the pen at some point?
I'd be overjoyed with a split.
He's dealing in Pawtucket and was pretty good in Portland also.
Reddick wasn't going to keep hitting .330, so this is hardly unexpected. Agree that if he can continue his improved strike zone control he should be fine in the long term.
Albers - I mean, he "scares" me only because he's never had a season anywhere approaching this good. Then again, he's like the 4th or 5th RH in the pen - he's not the most important guy in the world. I can live with him as long as he's a 6th-7th inning guy.
OBP/SLG
Darnell McDonald: .273/.389
Carl Crawford: .287/.386
It does look like the Sox scouts/FO got it right by keeping McDonald over Cameron
Here is the link to the MLE calculator I used above.
I am all for trying Tazawa in the pen or as a spot starter for 5 innings (say, paired up with Aceves or something) down the stretch.
Giving Weiland a shot would be fine with me as well, though his BB rate could be a tick lower - not sure how well that will translate with more selective hitters. Admit that the last point there is a bit of superficial conjecture on my part.
Reddick looks like a major league player, and he could be a starting OF for a big league team for a few years, but whether he's a good enough RF for a championship-quality team is trickier. I could see Reddick putting up a 270/320/465 line with good defense. That's good, but he seems like he might be one of the lower OBP guys on the team (assuming a Carl Crawford resurgence).
Came oh-so-close to a couple of spectacular plays in KC, almost preserving the one run lead in the Albers loss, and almost getting to a couple of dives.
This. A thousand times, this. Adrian Gonzalez is hitting like Juan Pierre since the ASB. Before tonight's game, his second half numbers were .315/.377/.399. That's an .084 ISO. He's taking more walks, which is good, but he is not hitting for any power at all. This has nothing to do with Fenway or Fenway's park factors.
His lack of power is really concerning at this point.
Overall, this team looks to have weathered a similar amount of injuries to the 06 and 10 teams. It looks like they may get healthier down the stretch and salvage this season, but I'm less sure than I was a few weeks ago.
This is how I feel. I'm still concerned about a playoff spot. The Rays pitching is such that they can get on the kind of roll they need to go 25-11 down the stretch to make life uncomfortable.
The idea that they are "salvaging" a season where they are, according to BPro 99.4% to make the playoffs, and 45% to win the division is silly. My frustration is that they are coasting into the playoffs, but there's no real fear that they won't get there.
Again I agree with Darren. This needs to stop. Terry Francona rulz!!!
Seriously, in its own little way I'm pleased at "how" we are struggling. With a few exceptions I think the starting pitching has been very solid. I'll probably regret saying this 8 hours from now but I feel a lot better about seeing John Lackey take the baseball in a playoff game than I would have a couple months ago and Bedard has looked pretty good too. I wonder if last night had been a ALDS Game Three if Francona would have gone to an Aceves for the Napoli at bat.
Agreed on the starting pitching.
--they have a 2 game lead
--the Yanks have to make up games in a short, short period.
--the Sox have 16 home games left vs. 13 road games; the Yanks: 14 home, 19 road
--the Sox have already won the season series vs. the Yanks.
One worry is that someone will decide, "Hey, let's just make up the O's games in NY and hope no one notices."
new york to baltimore is almost close enough for a split doubleheader. well, not really, but they're so close they wouldn't play them in ny just to save travel time.
If the Red Sox go 15-14 in their final 29 games, they'll be 97-65.
Tampa Bay, the closest team to them for the wild card, is 72-59. To win 98 games, they have to go 26-5 from here on in.
That's not happening.
For those that see David Price do his best Bob Gibson impression, and think Tampa could rip off 12 in a row or something, let's put even THAT in perspective:
1) If the Sox go 15-14, and the Rays win their next 12 games - the Rays would still have to go 14-5 AFTER THAT to beat a struggling Sox team.
2) If the Sox really struggle, and go, say, 9-20, the Rays would still have to go 20-11. They've done that this year (they started 0-6, and were 20-14 at one point), but it's still tough.
Who are these guys? We had this discussion last week in another thread and I responded in kind, which I will repost for purposes here..
I am assuming you are referring to the ever popular "mathematical" version of this, as there is simply no f*cking way this team misses the playoffs now. None. Too many combinations of good hitters and good pitchers to not squeak out a minimum .500 record from here on out and end up on 95+ wins, even while shutting it down; which of course they will do. (end point warning)If you take out the cringe inducing 2-10 start, they are playing at 66% clip, which is just awesome. It's all about health now. If they are healthy, they will meet Philly in the series.
It's ridiculous for any of us now to even consider them missing the playoffs, we should be discussing how they'll set up the rotation, if Buchholz is ever coming back, is Bedard definitely the #3 guy, would you rather face Texas on the road or Verlander twice but have the homefield advantage. You know, like relevant things. And less relevant things like, when A-gon wins the MVP, will he be the first guy to win it and only be like the 3rd best guy on his own team....
i think everybody is on the same page here ... people that are stressin about how they are playing are hoping that the sox will compete for the division, rather than treat the rest of the season like an exhibition season.
we should be discussing how they'll set up the rotation,
ok, i'll bite.
if Buchholz is ever coming back,
i'm going with no
is Bedard definitely the #3 guy,
i think bedard and lackey are 3 and 3a at this point. as it stands now, if they have to choose between one of them, they'll look at the matchups. either one could
start pitching well (or poorly) enough to either distinguish himself (or the other guy) as the clear number 3.
would you rather face Texas on the road or Verlander twice but have the homefield advantage. You know, like relevant things.
i'd take home field.
And less relevant things like, when A-gon wins the MVP, will he be the first guy to win it and only be like the 3rd best guy on his own team....
according to bref, pedroia was 3rd on the red sox in WAR in 2008 ... they have youk at 6, lester at 5.6, and petunia at 5.2. in 4th was daisuke with 5.1! mourneau was a 4th on the 06 twins in war ... santana and mauer were at 7, liriano at 4 and morneau with 3.8. ... i'm sure there were others ...
mo vaughn was 4th on the '95 red sox ... valentin had an amazing 8.5 war. wakefield (4.6) and naehring (4.4) were just ahead of vaughn (4.2).
dennis eckersly was 6th on the '92 a's. somehow lance blankenship ranks at 3.3 war that year ... wtf?
As for winning the division, consider this:
Boston's remaining schedule (29 games, 16H, 13A)
TB - 4H, 3A
TOR - 2H,4A
BAL - 4H, 3A
NY - 3H, 3A
TEX - 3H
New York's remaining schedule
TB - 3H, 3A
TOR - 3H, 3A
BAL - 3H, 4A
BOS - 3H, 3A
LAA - 3A
SEA - 3A
MIN - 1H
I may have the Yankees off by a game - please correct me if I'm wrong...the bottom line is that the Red Sox biggest advantage down the stretch is fewer games left to play, and that they've "cashed in" those already-played games as wins. The two teams have virtually identical intradivison schedules, but whereas Boston has a home series against Texas, NY has to go to LA and SEA for their remaining non-division games.
As it stands, I'm excited about this divisional race, even if it doesn't mean much.
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