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1. Norcan Posted: June 26, 2006 at 11:17 AM (#2076183)All in all, Johnson wasn't great; he allowed some pretty hard hit balls and he allowed plenty of balls into play but with a better defense, the results could've have been much better. The results the Red Sox, as constructed, could get from him could be fairly decent.
Sox: Hitters - 574% Starters: -53% Pen: 278% Total: 799%
Yanks: Hitters - 479% Starters: -2% Pen: 73% Total: 650%
Jays: Hitters - 341% Starters: -185% Pen 243% Total: 399%
So the Sox have been the best offensive team in the East, which was surprising until I thought of the injuries to Sheff and Matsui, though the Sox have gotten very little from Crisp as well. Further, this shows why the fact that the rotation has solidified for the Sox of late is having such an effect. That has been really the Sox only weakness this year (though you can make an argument for the back end of the pen as well).
One other interesting thing I noticed: ARod is hitting .287/.399/.510 and yet has a WPA of only 14%.
I'm not familiar with the numbers you've provided. What do they mean? By a more traditional measure, the Yankees lead: 5.64 R/PG, vs. 5.51 for the Red Sox (the Yanks have also allowed 6 fewer runs, and played one more game). Of course, I'd be happy to find out that the Sox offense is actually better, but I'm just not following how those numbers show that.
The idea behind a similar runs per game figure with a difference in WPA would indicate the the Sox runs have come at more important times, when they increase the win probability more. I guess to put it a different way, you could say that the Sox hitters have been more valuable than the Yanks.
I don't think the difference in EqA is really worth thinking about. So, I suppose the RS haven't had a better or worse offense -- just a timely one. I'll take timely.
The Red Sox have won 8 in a row, outscoring their opponents 60-25 in that span.
As U-2 and B.B. King once said, "That was the day before love came to town." But please, go ahead and make it nine in a row before you face the only National League opposition worth facing. We'll wait.
The only NL opposition worth facing is just another day for an AL team.
Perhaps. But something tells me Wednesday night, at least, is not going to be "just another day" at Fenway.
I'm looking forward to the Mets series, if only because it means non-Sox/Yankees, non-extra innings chatters that go more than 100 posts. i'll be reading those chatters the day after (kids, new house, etc.), but i'll enjoy them nonetheless.
Oh, and that particular U2 song is one of the worst songs in the history of music. Thank God B.B. redeemed it when he made it part of his live set.
Thanks for jinxing Papelbon Darren (haha). Of course Ortiz is far beyond cursing. Robinson Cano may be headed for the DL. Wily Mo should be back soon, and will be starting at 1st in Pawtucket, good move. Like I predicted a little while ago, this whole interleague thing is shining some bright sunlight down on Fenway.
Yeah, the NL sucks. But the Mets are good. This is the most exciting non-Yankees June series that I can remember.
why not Timlin?
Two frickin' Papi walk-offs? Jesus.
And just think of what Titus Flavius would say ...
I'll be looking forward to the Red Sox battering Pedro's slop on Wednesday night. Hey Petey, Jamie Moyer called, he wants his fastball back! Pedro goes 4.2 IP, 6 H, 5 R, 2 HR, 1 BB, 5 K. Unfortunately, Reyes will probably go 11-11 with 24 steals, as is his usual of late.
You guys planning on acquiring Reyes, Beltran, Wright, and Delgado between now and Wednesday? Because those are the only hitters in the Boston metropolitan area who have a chance of doing that to Pedro. Your ragamuffin band of NL flops (Lowell, Loretta), second-rate former prospects (Youkilis), and a couple of actual hitters (Manny and Papi)? Not. Oh, they're fine to take care of George's Evil Empire. The Sox are useful that way. I even appreciate the sweep of the Phillies; nicely done.
But you want to trash talk Pedro? Game on.
How can you expect to win when Super Batman Cookie Monster is on our side? It must be an awful feeling.
It's the only hope you've got baby!
We're only 2 out, and you're banging (?) on all cylinders. I like our chances.
I hope for your sake that the decision doesn't come down to the ninth, because, and correct me if I'm wrong, the closing pitcher for our nine bests yours in earned run average by almost two full points left of the decimal!
LOL
Reyes: the guy with the .856 OPS -- yeah, him. Gonzalez . . . looking . . . oh, yes: .661. Nice, in Fenway. You must just be loving that, Darren. I know I did when Rey Ordonez was doing it.
And do you really want to compare salaries? What are you guys paying Lowell (OPS: .869) compared to what we're paying Wright (highest VORP in all of baseball, 1.009 OPS)? Mike Jacobs? That's the best you got -- Mike Jacobs??? Wow. Keep focus here, buddy. It's Red Sox/Mets. You don't see me bringing up Hanley Ramirez, do you??? Ahem . . . .
This is fun! ;-)
Hey Beckett, John Wasdin called and he wants his schtick back.
And while both Steve Trachsel and Clement are torture to watch, at least Trachsel is only making 2.5 million and isn't owed 10 million next year.
PWN3D!
The defense rests.
I'll give this a whirl too:
Rob Base doesn't cheer for my team.
Of course, with Lester going tomorrow, maybe you won't need the bullpen -- until the 5th inning.
Pitching Matchups:
Tuesday: Lester (L) v. Soler (R)
Wednesday: Beckett (R) v. Pedro (R)
Thursday: Schilling (R) v. Glavine (L)
So, it seems to me that the Mets should wait to activate Floyd and send down Milledge until after Tuesday's game. On Tuesday we could play Milledge and Nady in the corners, Woodward at 2B and DH Franco (or better yet, DH Delgado and play Franco at first) to get most of the lefties out of there. In the minors this year lefties had a measely .394 OPS agasint Lester but righties hit a respectable .267/.358/.380 (.738 OPS) against him. I think he'll have trouble with a lineup where he only gets to face one lefty in Delgado.
Beckett doesn't stand a chance on Wednesday, while Glavine is equally doomed on Thursday. So it looks like the Red Sox will take 2 out of 3 ugly games.
Dan Shaughnessy doesn't write about my team.
zing!
As if I have a bloody choice in the matter. *grumble*
Hey, Sam M, that's the loosest Under Armor shirt I've ever seen!"
Take that.
DB
PS: Mr. Met looks like an onion.
Sox fans, some reason for optimism: Only one team in the American League, after all, has a better record at their home park than the residents of Fenway Park. No team in the American League, meanwhile, has more home games remaining this year.
Lupica at least has the virtue of annoying Yankee fans. The universe is still searching for the one thing CHB brings to the table.
your running out two old guys with nothing left and a young gun who never had it in the first place. Good luck.
With all the holes in your line-up, that's all we need to bring. Alex Gonzalez? Sweet Loretta Modern? Mike "If You Want Beckett You Have to Take Him, Too" Lowell? Sounds to me like we could have used El Duque against these guys and done OK. Hell, maybe even Lima Time.
I don't know, J. Cross. I know they scored it a WP. But I always kind of thought it might really have been a PB on Gedman.
What do you think, Sox fans? WPor PB?
Scott Kazmir.
Too bad you blew it. We'll take it in 5 or 6 games, and a little passed ball or wild pitch won't make the difference this time.
Also, I think people sometimes forget that before Knight's single he hit a slow roller down the third base line that Boggs let roll foul. Knight was a slow runner. Boggs could have just charged that and thrown Knight out at first.
I have to watch it again, but from what I understand, he made the right decision. It would have been difficult to get even a slow runner with that ball, so he would have been taking a pretty big chance. The announcer said Boggs would have had no chance to throw him out. And if Knight's safe at first, the go ahead run is on first base.
Hey, there are holes, and then there are strategically damaging holes. At least Tito buries the worst ones at the bottom of the order. It's not like he regularly bats a .316 OBP sinkhole like LoDuca ahead of Wright and Delgado!
On the other hand, we don't take our weak hitting catcher and name him team captain.
Either did we. Doug Mirabelli is not the team captain.
Afterwards, I was exuberant on a train at Park street and as the train pulled away I signaled with all 5 fingers on each hand through the window at an old guy on the platform. He nodded and smiled.
i was at fenway for loss #1 the next day. aside from a grand slam off ron mahay, that sucked.
Pretty sweet win last night. Good to see Alex Gonzalez, Sweet Loretta Modern and Mike "If You Want Beckett You Have to Take Him, Too" Lowell make substantial contributions.
That said, I look forward to tonight's game. That whole thing with Pedro's ovation made me a little misty, and I still have a little lump in my throat thinking about it.
Now you know how White Sox fans felt in last year's ALDS. "That's all there is?"
The last two games have to hurt, Sam.
God that's weak.
You're right, Boston sure wasn't very good. But it was only three games. Maybe they are better this season.
Try again, sparky. You're forgetting something about AL teams, you know, that they play each other, and that their ALDS opponent was no surprise? If White Sox "fans" had been paying attention, they'd have seen the Red Sox during the regular season against their own team.
Boston sure LOOKED surprised.
"If White Sox "fans" had been paying attention, they'd have seen the Red Sox during the regular season against their own team."
We did. Saw them during the regular season, saw them during the post-season. Overall the White Sox went 6-4 against them, I believe. Not sure of your point, unless it's to say that over the long term the '05 Red Sox would be more likely to win 40% of their games against the '05 White Sox than to win 0% of their games.
"The White Sox are good, the Red Sox are good, if they play its more or less down to randomness."
I know the White Sox are good, as I follow them pretty closely. I don't pay much attention to the Red Sox -- I'll take your word for it if you say they're good.
It either always comes down to randomness in a short series, or it never does. You don't get to pick and choose. The playoffs aren't evidence of your team's greatness when they win it all one year and then evidence of a crapshoot when you are swept in the first round the next. The same is true of a short series -- either it always means something (the Red Sox are better than the Mets AND the Twins are better than the Red Sox), or it never does. I realize we're all fans of our respective teams, but a little consistency is sometimes nice.
They're probably the better team this year, too. In any case, it'll be fun to see them against each other soon.
Well the White Sox won more games in October last year than the Red Sox, so I suppose they were the better team by definition. But if you mean if they played each other 100 times, would the White Sox have won the overwhelming majority? No, I don't agree. I think the Red Sox and White Sox were about equal last year, are about equal this year, and who wins a short series is largely random.
I've been pretty consistent on the randomness thing.
Not that I know of. Just some guy making a comment irrelevant in any way to the thread at hand.
So, back to the thread -- I'm going to guess that the Mets win tonight (Milledge will figure out the Wall and Schilling goes 5 because the Mets foul off 100 pitches) and then roll over the Yankees. I think the latter has to run out of steam sooner rather than later given their lineup woes and the Mets realyl are a good team. I believe they are way better than we've seen the last 2 nights (I saw them play the Nats and they looked awesome. It was like homerun derby at RFK). How do the starters match up?
DB
'taint been fun, that's for sure. I just wish the Mets had been playing the baseball we've played all year, instead of vapor locking on so many plays. Pedro not getting the easy double play on the Ortiz come-backer; Milledge being just totally intimidated by the Green Monster. To play such crappy ball when you need your A game just sucks.
The only silver lining: they know they can't play that way against Boston, period. They will get crushed. Better to find it out now than later.
One last thing. There was another Mets' team that lost the first two to a very good Red Sox squad, and didn't look very good in the process. They came back. I remain confident this team has some glory in its future, too.
Willie would be an idiot to put Milledge out in LF again tonight. At the very least, he flips Chavez and Milledge in the OF so that the latter doesn't have to contend with the Monster. Or Nady will play LF.
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