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   1. JB H Posted: July 20, 2006 at 10:54 PM (#2105434)
Beckett hasn't really stunk it up. His ERA+ is probably over 100 right now and he should get to 200 innings. That's a pretty good disappointing season. There's no shame in being Bartolo Colon instead of Clemens or Schilling

I like the deal a lot
   2. villageidiom Posted: July 21, 2006 at 02:56 AM (#2106126)
If only all our other starters' disappointing seasons were like this.
   3. Raleigh Horn Posted: July 21, 2006 at 03:28 AM (#2106157)
Beckett's season starts in October ;)
   4. Dave Cyprian Posted: July 21, 2006 at 03:52 AM (#2106176)
Good signing. But what is all this talk of Beckett getting the opportunity in '08 to be the bona fide Ace? Does he have a contract clause that prohibits the Sox from signing a free agent pitcher that is better than him? I suppose its just a license to whine.
   5. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: July 21, 2006 at 05:42 AM (#2106256)
The HR's are FLUKEY????
   6. John DiFool2 Posted: July 21, 2006 at 11:56 AM (#2106332)
IMNSHO, yes. I think his HRs represent more than 20% (maybe 30%) of his outfield
flies, a trend which if it continues would be unprecedented. If someone can find
the precise data there tho go ahead (didn't find anything on Prospectus).
   7. John DiFool2 Posted: July 21, 2006 at 12:02 PM (#2106334)
18.1%, thanks to the Fan Graphs site. A little lower than what I would have
thought, but if it is all luck then he would be expected to give up about
16 HRs so far, which is still high but dealable.
   8. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: July 21, 2006 at 12:07 PM (#2106336)
Beckett's ERA is 4.78, and his xFIP is 4.51.

Insofar as we're talking about flukiness in terms of partial regression stats, Beckett does not seem to have given up a fluky high amount of runs. His terrible HR numbers are balanced by great BABIP (.250).

Beckett's pitched just about as well as his numbers this year, in my opinion. I see little reason to assume, strictly from his one-year statistics, that he'll pitch better down the stretch. The hope I have comes primarily from his stuff - when Beckett has just one more tick of command on the fastball and curve, he's an excellent pitcher. He pitched well enough in Florida, so statistically speaking we'd expect some movement in the direction of 4.00, but I think the Sox are hoping for a bit more than that.
   9. PJ Martinez Posted: July 21, 2006 at 01:35 PM (#2106388)
"He pitched well enough in Florida, so statistically speaking we'd expect some movement in the direction of 4.00, but I think the Sox are hoping for a bit more than that."

Probably. But even if Beckett only manages, say, 4.25 over the course of this deal, if he stays healthy, he won't be terribly overpaid. 10m per isn't much more than Clement got, and it's the same (or less, even?) as Pavano.
   10. b Posted: July 21, 2006 at 02:55 PM (#2106468)
So for his 2 free agent years, he gets the $2M signing bonus (a year early), $9.5M, $10.5M, and a $2M buyout...that's 2 years, $24M. If they pick up the option, it's 3 years, $34M. It's a good deal in terms of the number of years, but the yearly salary compared to other recent free agents like those mentioned above actually seems just a tick higher.
   11. Golfing Great Mitch Cumstein Posted: July 21, 2006 at 03:53 PM (#2106518)
WEEI is discussing a trade rumour on ESPN Insider: Lowell for Peavy. Anybody else heard anything?
   12. PJ Martinez Posted: July 21, 2006 at 04:34 PM (#2106569)
According to Darren, and everyone else I've read, it works out to 3/30 or 4/40, not 3/34. But I haven't done the math myself, so maybe I'm mistaken.

Everything I've seen says possibly Lowell to SD, no specific mention of Peavy (maybe they asked about Young?). Here's the most recent take I've seen (via SoSH):

"Jayson Stark: (11:38 AM ET ) They're definitely seeing what they can get for Lowell. But this talk about him going to San Diego for Peavy, one for one, is a stretch. My understanding is that they've talked but they haven't found a good match for both teams, so they've actually been looking for a third team to see if that can make it work. There's some smoke there, but no fire yet."
   13. John DiFool2 Posted: July 21, 2006 at 04:37 PM (#2106576)
His terrible HR numbers are balanced by great BABIP (.250).

These two measures are hardly independent-it is likely that the
hard-hit balls he does give up tend to go into the stands, and
not fall in for hits, so hence aren't counted as BIP.
   14. PJ Martinez Posted: July 21, 2006 at 04:41 PM (#2106581)
Also via SoSH:

"Rotoworld reported Red Sox are interested in Shealy to allow them to trade Lowell for pitching help."

I tend to think the Sox will get additional 1B help if they decide to trade Lowell-- which means that this is all complicated enough that it probably will not happen. But I don't really doubt that Theo and Co. are exploring the option.
   15. Kevin Sweet Child Romine (aco) Posted: July 21, 2006 at 04:59 PM (#2106597)
They'd have to do Lowell for Peavy if given the chance, but I really don't like the idea of trading Lowell. His defense has made him so valuable this season that his bat is almost just gravy.
   16. We don't have dahlians at the Palace of Wisdom Posted: July 21, 2006 at 05:06 PM (#2106601)
If San Diego trades Jake Peavy for Mike Lowell they should just disband the franchise immediately after. But as a Diamondbacks fan I'm all for it.
   17. The Balls of Summer Posted: July 21, 2006 at 05:14 PM (#2106606)
Well, buy low, I guess.
   18. The Original SJ Posted: July 21, 2006 at 05:21 PM (#2106613)
Why on earth would San Diego accept Mike Lowell for Peavy or Young?

I mean, that has to be the dumbest thing I have ever heard.
   19. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: July 21, 2006 at 05:30 PM (#2106619)
WEEI is discussing a trade rumour on ESPN Insider: Lowell for Peavy. Anybody else heard anything?
I saw this speculation on SoSH, too. I think we should trade Lowell for Peavy, and every Red Sox fan should get a pony.
   20. Josh Posted: July 21, 2006 at 05:44 PM (#2106626)
I liek ponies.
   21. Joel W Posted: July 21, 2006 at 05:45 PM (#2106627)
MCA, reading a bit of Belle Waring?...

Lowell + prospect for Young?
   22. The Original SJ Posted: July 21, 2006 at 05:49 PM (#2106630)
Doesn't Young have 5 1/2 years left before Free Agency? Why would they trade him now, for that guy?
   23. We don't have dahlians at the Palace of Wisdom Posted: July 21, 2006 at 05:54 PM (#2106636)
What about a Chris Young-Chris Young challenge trade?

The DBacks have more young outfielders than they need and the Padres obviously don't value young starting pitching.
   24. PJ Martinez Posted: July 21, 2006 at 06:45 PM (#2106702)
Well, the report, at this point, is that the two teams are looking for a third team, who would, I imagine, provide the starting pitcher.

The Padres have a very good, but by no means certain, shot at the playoffs this year. Lowell is playing very well. It's insane to think they would trade Peavy, and perhaps Young, to get Lowell, but it's not at all crazy to think that they'd be quite interested. It's good to make the playoffs.
   25. PJ Martinez Posted: July 21, 2006 at 06:46 PM (#2106707)
And, as Joel suggests, if the Padres were to, say, part with Young, presumably the Sox would chip in a decent prospect. And cash.

I don't think this is going to happen, but I could see why these two teams would be talking.
   26. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: July 21, 2006 at 07:08 PM (#2106723)
The Padres have a very good, but by no means certain, shot at the playoffs this year. Lowell is playing very well. It's insane to think they would trade Peavy, and perhaps Young, to get Lowell, but it's not at all crazy to think that they'd be quite interested. It's good to make the playoffs.
Making the playoffs is why the Padres might want Lowell. However, making the playoffs is similarly why they won't give up the front of their rotation to get Lowell. Instead, they'd trade prospects. Sadly, the Red Sox also want to make the playoffs.

There are good structural reasons why teams in the playoff hunt don't trade with each other. Their interests don't match up.

One clear tendency of the Epstein administration is their desire to pursue any set of trading possibilities. If there's even the slightest chance of some crazy four-way that nets them an upgrade, they'll always look into it. That's good. But I think the rumors that arise from this need to be treated far more skeptically than they usually are in the Soxosphere. The SoSH trade deadline thread is the mother lode of and-a-ponyism.
   27. Darren Posted: July 21, 2006 at 09:51 PM (#2106835)
What kind of player goes from a team that has ponies to a no-pony team?
   28. Dave Cyprian Posted: July 23, 2006 at 04:14 PM (#2108276)
Well, the Padres just picked up Williamson from the Cubs. I think this means Kevin Towers now can focus his full attention on ironing out the details of the Lowell/Peavy trade. I think Epstein is holding out for two ponies to be named later.
   29. The George Sherrill Selection Posted: July 23, 2006 at 04:26 PM (#2108283)
Two pink ponies.
   30. 1k5v3L Posted: July 23, 2006 at 04:29 PM (#2108285)
What about a Chris Young-Chris Young challenge trade?
The DBacks have more young outfielders than they need and the Padres obviously don't value young starting pitching.


With all due apologies, that trade idea is as dumb as the Lowell-Peavy proposal.
   31. veer bender Posted: July 23, 2006 at 05:17 PM (#2108334)
two ponies to be named later

Two pink ponies.

Obviously, as PTBNLs it depends on future performance. It will be something like, if Lowell finishes with 50 RBI in San Diego the ponies are both pink, 40 RBI one pink one plain white, otherwise no pink ponies at all.

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