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Tuesday, July 03, 2018

Bigfoot, and Unicorns, and the Red Sox Bullpen

Reports are that “Tyler Thornburg” is joining the Red Sox bullpen today. This is the closest we’ve been to actual confirmation that “Tyler Thornburg” actually exists.

Entertaining the hypothetical, let’s consider what the implications would be for the pitching staff, were this to happen.

1. Someone’s gotta go. That someone is Justin Haley. Haley will not be missed. That’s not meant as a statement of cruelty as much as a statement of fact. I’m guessing 70% of you didn’t even know he exists and was on the Boston roster until today. Yet he was. Haley allowed close to 2 batters per inning and posted a 0.0 K/BB ratio with Boston (vs. a 3.0 in Pawtucket this year). In this case, the proper reading of that 0.0 is in the voice of Dean Vernon Wormer.

2. ...y’know what? That’s the lone implication. I mean, “Thornburg” could perform like the stats say he did in Milwaukee. He could be a bust. He could be anywhere in between, or not in between. If we’re talking about a mythical creature we could conjure any scenario, right? Maybe he could throw like this. Or this. Or maybe this. Until we know what the team “has” with “Tyler Thornburg” on their roster, there’s really not much to say.

So let’s enjoy the ride. Or not.

villageidiom Posted: July 03, 2018 at 11:18 AM | 31 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: July 03, 2018 at 03:43 PM (#5704849)
Dammit, I wanted to write the "Bigfoot Exists" post. Alas.

Anyway, the timing on this is good. It gives Dombrowski a few weeks to take a look at him and decide how good he can be. Wright is also due back soon and if they can get Pomeranz back maybe Drew becomes a reliever we need. That there are internal options is nice. I wouldn't hate giving Beeks a return engagement with that in mind as well.

I'm interested to see Brian Johnson tonight. He's been very good in a couple of starts while pitching quite poorly out of the bullpen. I don't know quite why that would be or how the Sox can leverage that but it's interesting at least.
   2. Nasty Nate Posted: July 03, 2018 at 03:53 PM (#5704862)
Was Haley the guy who almost got killed by a line drive in the bronx last weekend?
   3. villageidiom Posted: July 03, 2018 at 07:38 PM (#5705066)
I'm interested to see Brian Johnson tonight. He's been very good in a couple of starts while pitching quite poorly out of the bullpen. I don't know quite why that would be or how the Sox can leverage that but it's interesting at least.
His 4th inning was unspectacular, though I think the Harper fly to right would have been caught had Betts been out there.
   4. villageidiom Posted: July 03, 2018 at 08:37 PM (#5705113)
And now, finally, making his Red Sox debut... William Cuevas?

I think they're trolling us now.
   5. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: July 03, 2018 at 08:59 PM (#5705132)
Not counting his appearances in 2016.

Cuevas was basically the emergency guy if Johnson couldn’t go deep. Presumably he’ll go down after the game and “Tyler Thornburg” will be called up.
   6. Nasty Nate Posted: July 04, 2018 at 11:00 AM (#5705283)
A.M. baseball today!

When was the last time a team had two morning-start games in the same season?
   7. SoSH U at work Posted: July 04, 2018 at 11:19 AM (#5705287)
A.M. baseball today


Why is this a morning start?
   8. villageidiom Posted: July 04, 2018 at 11:56 AM (#5705301)
Why not? I mean, it's not like DC doesn't have stuff going on today, not unlike Boston on Patriot's Day.
   9. SoSH U at work Posted: July 04, 2018 at 12:09 PM (#5705308)

Why not? I mean, it's not like DC doesn't have stuff going on today, not unlike Boston on Patriot's Day.


I'm sure most cities have stuff going on today.

It does look like this is an annual thing in D.C. I never noticed it before.

   10. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: July 04, 2018 at 12:17 PM (#5705313)
I suspect there is a security element to it. Or at least simplicity of security. Gotta think so many people are coming into the city they want to space it out a bit.
   11. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: July 05, 2018 at 09:11 AM (#5705437)

Cuevas was basically the emergency guy if Johnson couldn’t go deep. Presumably he’ll go down after the game and “Tyler Thornburg” will be called up.


You are correct sir. Now let's see if Thornbug can turn into a 4 WAR reliever to match Travis Shaw's output! ####, I'd be happy with Thornburg being more valuable than Mauricio Dubon, who appears to be hitting in AAA, although that is in Colorado Spings...
   12. villageidiom Posted: July 06, 2018 at 09:41 AM (#5705865)
Here's the state of rest for the current Red Sox bullpen (last 3 days):

"Tyler Thornburg" - day off; day off; day off - last pitched Saturday in AAA
Hector Velazquez - day off; day off; day off - last pitched Sunday
Brandon Workman - day off; day off; 9 pitches on Tue
Heath Hembree - day off; day off; 29 pitches on Tue
Joe Kelly - day off; 15 pitches on Wed; day off
Matt Barnes - day off; 19 pitches on Wed; day off
Craig Kimbrel - day off; 22 pitches on Wed; day off
Brian Johnson - day off; day off; 77-pitch start on Tue

So... they'll have 1-2 innings to cover tonight, and everyone is available. Tonight might be the night.

OTOH, Sale might throw a complete game. The Royals see the fewest pitches per PA in the AL.
   13. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: July 06, 2018 at 09:56 AM (#5705876)
"Tyler Thornburg"...last pitched Saturday in AAA


Assumes facts not in evidence.
   14. villageidiom Posted: July 06, 2018 at 10:39 AM (#5705900)
THIS WHOLE THREAD IS OUT OF ORDER!
   15. villageidiom Posted: July 06, 2018 at 10:20 PM (#5706417)
   16. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: July 06, 2018 at 10:21 PM (#5706418)
HE EXISTS!!!
   17. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: July 07, 2018 at 11:59 PM (#5706884)
Undefeated in the Bigfoot era.
   18. villageidiom Posted: July 11, 2018 at 12:22 AM (#5708185)
Undefeated in the Bigfoot era.
Still true.

Looking ahead (with record as of this second in parentheses):

1 vs. TEX (40-53)
4 vs. TOR (42-48)

3 at DET (40-54)
3 at BAL (26-66)
4 vs. MIN (40-48)
2 vs. PHI (51-39)

4 vs. NYY (59-31)

3 at TOR
3 at BAL

2 at PHI

Every gap I included there is at least one day off.

That does not look like a schedule that should materially alter their win percentage.
   19. Textbook Editor Posted: July 11, 2018 at 01:33 AM (#5708202)
So... Any thoughts on Pedroia going to AZ to rehab closer to home? The signs/statements from the club do... not sound like they're expecting him to play in 2018, to be honest.

I've also in some of the more recent stories seen his surgery described as "microfracture" surgery on the knee, which (a) maybe I'm the only guy who didn't remember this, but I feel like it was never described as such at the time he had the surgery, and (b) scares the bejeezus out of me, because all I know of microfracture surgery is that (IIRC) it seems to be something NBA players got for a while there... and no one ever had a successful surgery. (I'm thinking of Greg Oden, I think, and maybe Tracey MacGrady? I'm sure there were others in there too?)

All of which is to say... I kind of think Pedroia may be done done--as in whether it's in April 2019 or May or July or even February 2020... He's not making it back, certainly not as an everyday 2B.

I don't like being an abject pessimist on this, but there's been almost literally zero good news on Pedroia now for almost 9 months; if anything he seems back at square one despite a surgery and 9 months of rest/rehab. The Red Sox have oodles of cash and it's not my money, but there's a great chance the rest of his contract is basically setting fire to tens of millions of dollars.
   20. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: July 11, 2018 at 07:17 AM (#5708206)
(IIRC) it seems to be something NBA players got for a while there... and no one ever had a successful surgery. (I'm thinking of Greg Oden, I think, and maybe Tracey MacGrady? I'm sure there were others in there too?)


Amar'e Stoudemire had microfracture surgery, he came back ok from it. It just takes a while to recover from - really a full year.
   21. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: July 11, 2018 at 08:24 AM (#5708211)
The minute Pedroia went back on the DL after his return I had a hunch he was done for 2018. To spend all that time coming back, to follow Doctor's orders, take it slow, then play about 3 games and go back on the DL, it was shades of 2012 when he did something similar (or was it 2010 with the broken foot?). Anyway, I'm not counting on him at all and you may be right about the long term prognosis.

But for now I'm enjoying the moment. This is something special we are seeing and while Pedroia not being part of it is a bit of a downer this team is amazing. They are playing great baseball, they are playing fun baseball and I want to sit back and appreciate this while it happens. Maybe they get swept in the first round or hell lose the Wild Card game (because the division is no sure thing) but to have 6 months of baseball like this is why being a fan is fun.

And hey, how about that Blake Swihart!
   22. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: July 11, 2018 at 10:48 AM (#5708268)
I'd really like them to at least get to 100 wins for the first time since 1946. Their record is so good right now that they only have to play barely over .500 the rest of the way to get there.
   23. villageidiom Posted: July 11, 2018 at 04:02 PM (#5708641)
They have a decent shot at 106, which would be a franchise record.
   24. Darren Posted: July 13, 2018 at 09:11 AM (#5709416)
It's a shame they've already lost 29 games. Now they're limited to 133 wins.
   25. jmurph Posted: July 13, 2018 at 11:03 AM (#5709444)
Probably 4 times a week I spend a few minutes looking at Mookie's numbers and have the exact same thought: I can't believe Trout is somehow still having a better season.
   26. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: July 13, 2018 at 11:59 AM (#5709468)

Probably 4 times a week I spend a few minutes looking at Mookie's numbers and have the exact same thought: I can't believe Trout is somehow still having a better season.


19 more games played for Trout - that side injury very well could cost Betts the MVP. Between Betts, Trout, and Ramirez, the race for MVP this year should be great. It'll be interesting to read the voter's opinion articles - I can see inane arguments against any of the three that may cost them the vote (no playoffs for Trout, JD Martinez was the REAL MVP for the Sox, Ramirez who?), but if the three keep this up there may not be a wrong answer.
   27. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: July 13, 2018 at 01:10 PM (#5709515)
Devers to the 10-day DL with shoulder inflammation. Hope that doesn't torpedo his season. Why the eff can't the Sox get any sort of consistent production from 3B?
   28. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: July 13, 2018 at 01:53 PM (#5709542)
2011 was the last year the Sox ranked in the top half of MLB from production at 3rd (per bWAR), when they were 5th, primarily because of Youkilis. 2012 they were 'only' 17th, and then #### really hit the fan, as they've averaged 26th best in the league since then...

2011 - 5th
2012 - 17th
2013 - 26th
2014 - 27th
2015 - 30th
2016 - 22nd
2017 - 23rd
2018 - 29th so far
   29. The Yankee Clapper Posted: July 13, 2018 at 03:25 PM (#5709592)
Devers to the 10-day DL with shoulder inflammation.

First Vazquez, then the bad news on Pedroia, and now Devers. Coincidence, or the Curse of Bigfoot?
   30. Bad Fish Posted: July 14, 2018 at 07:08 PM (#5709958)
To put their play into perspective - They started with a 17-2 run, then went 34-25 - a 59 game stretch of .576 ball - and now are on a 15-3 run. That baseline run of .576 ball in the middle would lead three of the six divisions and but them in the wildcard in either league. They only have 8 losses of 5 or more runs interestingly their 4 last losses are included in that tally. Using selective endpoints, they their two worse 10 game streaks are 4-6, they also have two 5-5 streaks.
   31. dave h Posted: July 14, 2018 at 08:32 PM (#5709978)
2011 was the last year the Sox ranked in the top half of MLB from production at 3rd (per bWAR)


Since I was pretty sure Beltre had a big season with the Sox, I had to look up what I was missing. I was missing that it was 2010. Oof.

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