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   1. Dave Cyprian Posted: August 10, 2007 at 01:36 AM (#2479608)
They should probably give him a shot. -- Edit: wow you can edit posts now?
   2. Darren Posted: August 10, 2007 at 01:39 AM (#2479614)
No. -- Edit: Actually, yes!
   3. Mike Emeigh Posted: August 10, 2007 at 01:57 AM (#2479635)
Six-game lead, 48 games left. Don't know that I'd push it right now.

-- MWE
   4. Darren Posted: August 10, 2007 at 02:05 AM (#2479642)
Why not, Mike? He and Lester are both going to be pitching anyways. Why not put the better one in the Majors?

A six game lead is hardly insurmountable. The Yanks have shaved off 5.5 games over the past 30 games.
   5. philly Posted: August 10, 2007 at 02:21 AM (#2479663)
I really hope the "155 IP limit" thing has been overblown. I can't imagine that there is strong empirical evidence that 175 IP would significantly increase his injury chances in comparison to 155 IP. He should be in the majors and 155 IP should be an ideal guideline, but in no way an absolute limit. The guys 23 freakin years old. He's not a doll.

And if they're scared about the year-to-year jump from last year, well who the hell told them to have a 22 yr old only throw ~120 innings. I like pitch counts and limits, but all of these Sox fans back counting IP from 155 drive me nuts.

He's a healthy pitcher. Let him pitch.
   6. Nick Warino Posted: August 10, 2007 at 02:37 AM (#2479677)
How does Buchholz compare to Hughes? I understand that Buchholz is almost 2 years older, but stuff-wise, how does he compare?
   7. The Piehole of David Wells Posted: August 10, 2007 at 02:46 AM (#2479689)
i was at the game last night, and was sitting next to the bullpen watching him warm up. he was all over the place: balls in the dirt, high, but mostly missing low and way off the plate. not sure what is wrong with him, but he's not throwing consistently in the strike zone, and that was very clear watching him in the pen. if i didn't know better, i'd say he's pitching like he is recovering from arm surgery.
   8. plink Posted: August 10, 2007 at 03:00 AM (#2479703)
An obvious reason not to promote him: service time. I'd much rather the Sox have Buchholz until 2014 than 2013. The marginal difference between Buchholz *right now* is not worth that extra year. If the lead were less than 2 games, maybe.
   9. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: August 10, 2007 at 03:04 AM (#2479707)
I'd much rather the Sox have Buchholz until 2014 than 2013.
2014? Seriously, Darren will almost certainly be in a home by then. I don't think that planning a marginal benefit seven years down the road really should have much bearing on what the Sox do now with a dominant pitcher.

If Buchholz is ready, and damn if it's hard to create scenarios under which he can't at least give them 5 solid innings most nights, then he should be pitching in the major leagues.
   10. Darren Posted: August 10, 2007 at 03:10 AM (#2479712)
You only get the extra year if you don't bring him up to start next year. I'd be inclined to hold a guy back a week or two to avoid giving him super-2, but planning to keep a guy 6 years down the road strikes me as planning for a time that may never come (sad as that sounds, pitchers just are tough to project beyond a couple years, healthwise).

MCOA is stealing his material from SJ, BTW. :)
   11. JB H Posted: August 10, 2007 at 04:48 AM (#2479761)
An obvious reason not to promote him: service time. I'd much rather the Sox have Buchholz until 2014 than 2013. The marginal difference between Buchholz *right now* is not worth that extra year. If the lead were less than 2 games, maybe.

I think you just take whatever you can get with pitchers. I think it's pretty unlikely Buchholz is any good in 2014, the attrition rate is so high.

Marginal improvements to a playoff roster are worth a lot. In general, the Sox would get more value from adding a player right now with a playoff spot locked up than adding a player to a 90'ish win team in spring training (edit: that's assuming the only goal is to maximize world series titles, which isn't really the case I guess)
   12. Phil Coorey is a T-Shirt Salesman Posted: August 10, 2007 at 08:51 AM (#2479826)
Lester is painful to watch, bring up the kid.
   13. chris p Posted: August 10, 2007 at 02:22 PM (#2479910)
there's a doubleheader coming up where they'll have to call up a pitcher or use tavarez (please, no!), right? they really should give that start to buchholz. last week when gabbard had just been traded i thought they should have started either buchholz or schilling over tavarez, but oh well.
   14. booond Posted: August 10, 2007 at 02:51 PM (#2479931)
Lester can't get the ball on the ground and has no control; a 14-2 loss is in his near future. Buchholz is only eight months younger than Lester and has been the better pitcher all year. He should've been up the moment they decided to push him to AAA. Lester is a great story, now let him fully recover without the pressure of a pennant race.
   15. Swedish Chef Posted: August 10, 2007 at 03:11 PM (#2479944)
An obvious reason not to promote him: service time. I'd much rather the Sox have Buchholz until 2014 than 2013.

If he's ready, use him. You never know when a pitcher's arm is going to blow up anyway. Eat them while they're fresh.
   16. booond Posted: August 10, 2007 at 03:14 PM (#2479947)
The service time argument works with the Pirates (no money/no talent) not with a team with plenty of money and in the hunt for a title.
   17. Ripwa Posted: August 10, 2007 at 03:29 PM (#2479960)
I thought service time was only an issue if he is called up prior to July 15th. I'm not positive about that but i have always thought there was a cut off so he would still be under control for 2014 anyways.
   18. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: August 10, 2007 at 04:19 PM (#2480014)
I'd much rather the Sox have Buchholz until 2014 than 2013.

I'll be dead by 2014 at this rate, call himup!
   19. villageidiom Posted: August 10, 2007 at 11:57 PM (#2480420)
there's a doubleheader coming up where they'll have to call up a pitcher or use tavarez (please, no!), right?

One week from today.
   20. Phil Coorey is a T-Shirt Salesman Posted: August 11, 2007 at 12:12 AM (#2480451)
The double header is a perfect time to call him up.
   21. chris p Posted: August 11, 2007 at 06:01 PM (#2481049)
I thought service time was only an issue if he is called up prior to July 15th. I'm not positive about that but i have always thought there was a cut off so he would still be under control for 2014 anyways.

from wikipedia:
A player is eligible for salary arbitration if he:

1. is ineligible for free agency
2. is without a contract
3. cannot agree with his current team on a new contract
4. has been on a major league roster or disabled list for at least three years

"Super Two" exception[3] - A player with at least two years of experience may be eligible for salary arbitration if he:

1. Meets the first three requirements from above
2. Played in the majors for at least 86 days in the previous season
3. Is among the top 17 percent for cumulative playing time in the majors amongst others with at least 2 years, but less than 3 years experience
   22. Xander Posted: August 15, 2007 at 09:01 PM (#2486285)
   23. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: August 15, 2007 at 09:07 PM (#2486293)
Good-bye Wily Mo? With no off-days in the week after the double-header, the Sox probably won't option out a pitcher. That would also explain the silence from the Sox on who would get called up - they didn't want to say they'd have to be making a roster move.
   24. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: August 16, 2007 at 06:40 AM (#2487184)
Worst case Scneario:

Sept 1st vs. the Orioles. Beckett leaves the game after the 7th with a 3 run lead. Gagne comes in the game, promptly gives up 2 runs and walks Millar to 1st. Francona actually goes to the bullpen and brings in Papelbon. As Papelbon steps onto the mound, the stadium lights fail. We are enshruoded in darkness.

When the lights turn back on, we suddenly see Eric Gagne behind Jonathan Papelbon with a steel chair. Papelbon unsuspectingly turns around, and Gagne CHARISHOTS HIM IN THE HEAD.

As Varitek runs towards the mound trying to help Papelbon, Eric Bedard CHARGES out of the Orioles dugout, and Adam Stern jumps out of the stands. They double team Varitek from behind, and delivers a 3D.

Chaos is everywhere.

Kevin Millar, suddenly realizing that Kevin youkilis was the bastard that took his job, decides to take advantage of the situations, and RKOs him. Papi and Pedroia, who both got the day off, both charge out from the Red Sox dugout. Pedroia climbs onto the shoulders of Papi and kicks Millar in the chest, but man and midget cannot fight off the treachery of the 3 Canadians.

Bodies are down everywhere. Then, you see Bedard, Gagne, and Stern gather on the mound. Gagne rips off his Red Sox jersey to reveal a Baltimore Orioles Jersey. Adam Stern is waving the biggest F!@#ING Canadian flag you'll ever see. The Canadian Anthem starts playing over the Stadium PA. It's 10 o'clock, and people watching on TV's screen go dark and go to Sportsdesk with Hazel Mae.

Of course, during all of this, Jerry Remy for some reason has a ridiculous Texas Accent, and Thursday that week footage is revealed that Lugo handed Gagne the chair.
   25. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: August 16, 2007 at 06:44 AM (#2487188)
The next day:

Doug Mirabelli: I can't believe I jobbed for those F!@3ers
Tim Wakefield: You idiot, you're a jobber, you've jobbed for everybody.
   26. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: August 16, 2007 at 07:00 AM (#2487191)
I do hope however, that they do a plotline where the Canadians kidnap Okajima's wife and try to put her through a table, but then Lowell teams up with Okajima to save her.
   27. Dave Cyprian Posted: August 16, 2007 at 04:33 PM (#2487458)
Bucholz & Ellsbury up! Sweet. Screw Kielty. We want the indian!
   28. The Essex Snead Posted: August 16, 2007 at 04:39 PM (#2487466)
I'm hoping than JT is the one to go south, as much as I like his pug-textured face & the way he points at the ball after it's hit - he should be nowhere near a high-leverage situation, Snyder can emergency-start (I think?), and I still have faith in Wily Mo.
   29. ellsbury my heart at wounded knee Posted: August 16, 2007 at 05:50 PM (#2487547)
Bucholz & Ellsbury up!


Nice. I'm surprised it's Ellsbury, though. Kielty was just beginning to hit a little after striking out in like 90% of his ABs.

I wonder if there's anything Buchholz can do to stay up. My guess is even if he throws a one-hit shutout he gets sent back down.
   30. The Essex Snead Posted: August 16, 2007 at 05:57 PM (#2487554)
The report in the Globe said that (IIRC) Buchholz will pitch the 1 PM game Friday, then get sent down to make room for Ellsbury, so yeah, it's a one-and-done sort of deal.
   31. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: August 16, 2007 at 06:56 PM (#2487620)
Here's Benjamin's report on the Extra Bases blog:
Jacoby Ellsbury is also expected to be called up to the Red Sox tomorrow. Ellsbury will likely be added to the roster for the second game of the doubleheader, taking the spot of Buchholz, who will then be sent back to Pawtucket.

While Buchholz will be traded for Ellsbury after the game, Wily Mo Pena is the one who is initially expected to lose his spot, either being traded or designated for assignment. (The Sox need to free up a space on the roster for the Buchholz/Ellsbury combination.)
Still no official word on who goes down, but it will end eventually with Wily Mo getting traded.

The Ellsbury for Kielty thing makes sense - Ellsbury's been hot since returning from injury, hitting over .400 in August so far, and he'd earned firsties by virtue of his excellent play the first time around.
   32. Phil Coorey is a T-Shirt Salesman Posted: August 17, 2007 at 02:46 AM (#2488454)
I like the Ellsbury move. He's gonna get on base at a better clip than WMP & Keilty and is a terror on the basepaths.
   33. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: August 17, 2007 at 02:58 AM (#2488464)
He can also catch a flyball. (Kielty is actually not a bad defender I know)
   34. ellsbury my heart at wounded knee Posted: August 17, 2007 at 02:48 PM (#2488693)
Of course, bringing up Ellsbury makes the bench totally left-handed - Hinske, Cora, Ellsbury (I can't think of a situation where you'd want Mirabelli to pinch hit) - which is a bit of a bummer for the late inning match-up game. Still, he's an exciting player to watch.
   35. Josh Posted: August 17, 2007 at 03:01 PM (#2488711)
The Angels, though, have only one left handed reliever, and he is Darren Oliver. So, he sucks. And he sucks more against lefties. Against the non Saunders starters, no need for a RH PHer, I think.
   36. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: August 17, 2007 at 03:16 PM (#2488733)
I'm really looking forward to a Crisp-Ellsbury-Moss OF one day: that would probably be our youngest fastest and best defensive OF we've had in decades.
   37. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: August 18, 2007 at 04:33 PM (#2490543)
Clay wasn't great, damn walks, but he got a few DPs turned and sacked up HUGE when he needed to.
   38. Dr. Vaux Posted: August 19, 2007 at 01:09 AM (#2490948)
He should replace Schilling, who should retire.
   39. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: August 22, 2007 at 11:48 AM (#2494805)
33.1 IP, 33 H, 6 HR, 14 BB, 24 K, 5.67 ERA

Where's the decision point on Lester? Watching him, he just doesn't look quite ready. His fastball velocity is spotty, and his command is worse. His command of the cutter is terrible, which sucks because it's obviously a really nasty pitch. He looks like he needs more time in the minors to work out the kinks - which is exactly what his minor league stats suggested. I was willing to give the Sox the benefit of the doubt in their scouting analysis when they called him up, but I'm less willing now. Lester looks like a guy who's still several months from being a good MLB pitcher. I have a lot of faith that he will be exactly that, but I think that expecting him to pitch well in the majors just seven months since his last chemotherapy treatment was ultimately unrealistic.
   40. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: August 22, 2007 at 12:43 PM (#2494821)
I'm ready for him to be sent back down. He's pitched well in stretches, but the dingers are REALLY REALLY hurting him. As are the walks.
   41. The Essex Snead Posted: August 22, 2007 at 01:00 PM (#2494831)
The problem is following the walks with the dingers (cf. the 4-pitch WTF to Upton, followed by the room service 1st pitch to Pena in the 1st inning yesterday). Tho, like Remy said during the NESN broadcast, I couldn't believe that Iwamura fly ball was going to go yard.
   42. chris p Posted: August 22, 2007 at 01:05 PM (#2494835)
He looks like he needs more time in the minors to work out the kinks - which is exactly what his minor league stats suggested.

yes and no. i don't think any amount of time in the minors this year is going to turn him into a good major league pitcher this year. a real offseason, a real spring training ... then hopefully he gets back what he had. meanwhile, i'd go with buchholz and it isn't even close.
   43. RobertMachemer Posted: August 22, 2007 at 02:21 PM (#2494883)
Only mildly-related: after three weeks of being out of town, I suddenly can no longer access the usenet Sox group to post updated DIPS numbers, so I'm posting them here (for now).

Numbers are adjusted for lefties and knucklers, but not for league or park.

pitcher dERA   ERA   IP
Beckett 2.74  3.15  154.1
Matsuzaka  3.75  3.79  164.0
Schilling  3.97  4.25  112.1
Wakefield  4.16  4.35  157.1
Tavarez 4.54  5.01  116.2 


Tavarez has been somewhat "unlucky," the others are more or less where they should be (though tending towards having higher dERAs than their DIPS numbers might suggest). As a group (offhand), those are some very good DIPS numbers. Most noteworthy to me are how far Wakefield's numbers have come down in the last three weeks -- I think his dERA was about 4.60 or so three weeks ago -- that's a fairly notable improvement in the overall numbers from three weeks of pitching late in the season.

pitcher dERA   ERA   IP
Buchholz   3.20  4.50 6.0
Gabbard 4.50  3.73   41.0
Lester  5.40  5.67   33.1
Hansack 8.83  7.71 4.1 


My general rule of thumb is that a pitcher needs a minimum of 20 innings pitched before we can even start to conclude anything from his numbers. (Over that, the numbers gradually become more steady, though they can and do change some). Anyway, Lester's over the threshhold and I'm not terribly encouraged. Given a choice, I'd rather have Tavarez starting and Lester continue to work through his issues in the minors. I'd be totally fine with giving Buchholz a shot too. I'm not up-in-arms about continuing to give Lester a chance in the majors, but it's not what I'd probably prefer to do at this point.

Meanwhile, I think the Sox did a good job of selling high on Gabbard. I liked Gabbard. His dERA suggested his ERA was likely due to rise in the fairly near future, he was not a terribly well-regarded minor league prospect. I saw him as the second coming of Vaughn Eshelman and am glad the Sox got anything of value for him.

pitcher dERA   ERA   IP
Papelbon   2.44  1.77   45.2
Okajima 2.84  1.19   60.2
Delcarmen  3.94  2.57   28.0
Snyder  4.70  3.55   45.2
Timlin  4.74  3.07   41.0 


Papelbon and Okajima, as has been true all year: great. Not as great as their ERAs would suggest, but no one is really THAT great. Delcarmen's dERA seems to have climbed in the last few weeks. I'm still very happy with him, even if I worry that he's due to see some rough patches in the near future.

Timlin's dERA has gone down as he's continued to pitch fairly well, but he STILL has not done all that great a job by DIPS. Fourth or so on the depth chart is about where he should be (and, offhand, that seems to be about where he is in Francona's mind too, more or less).

pitcher dERA   ERA   IP
Gagne   3.15 12.86 7.0
Donnelly   3.18  3.05   20.2
Pineiro 4.45  5.03   34.0
Romero  5.27  3.15   20.0
Lopez   4.04  2.87   31.1 


Gagne's not pitched enough innings yet to know what to make of him. I don't suggest using him in too many really tough situations in the meantime (until he builds up more innings), but his numbers in Texas weren't this bad (and, even if it's meaningless, his dERA isn't bad at all). Patience. Mariano Rivera wasn't done as an effective pitcher in April of 2007 and Gagne likely isn't done in August.

Team: 3.88 dERA, 3.78 ERA

Those are excellent numbers. I'll take 'em.
   44. Famous Original Joe C Posted: August 23, 2007 at 09:17 PM (#2497114)
Lester down, Lopez up, Tavarez to start sunday, according to boston.com.
   45. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: August 23, 2007 at 11:02 PM (#2497232)
Lester down, Lopez up, Tavarez to start sunday, according to boston.com.

Oh come on. Buchholz dammit.
   46. Darren Posted: August 24, 2007 at 01:44 AM (#2497583)
That's ridiculous. Really, really ridiculous, and I don't actually believe it. Buchholz was pulled from his start Wed after only 3 IP. That would be a small enough outing to allow him to come back on 3 days rest. I bet he'll be the guy.

If he's not, it's yet another sign that this team doesn't think winning the division is important or that they have deluded themselves into thinking they can't be caught.
   47. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: August 24, 2007 at 02:10 AM (#2497682)
I do not think that it's a good idea for the Red Sox to start their top prospect in the majors on three days rest. They need to call up Buchholz as soon as possible, but Sunday isn't possible. With the day off on Monday, he'll be lined up to start on September 1st, and for the rest of the year.

edit: reading the calendar correctly
   48. djy04 Posted: August 24, 2007 at 01:23 PM (#2498012)
I think the 10 day rule prevents Buckholz from pitching Sunday, without an injury he can't be recalled in time
   49. Darren Posted: August 25, 2007 at 04:29 AM (#2499169)
djy is right. They never should have sent Buc down.
   50. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: August 28, 2007 at 02:54 AM (#2501656)
They couldn't keep Buc up unless they planned to start him on short rest. He wasn't set up in the rotation after the double-header. I just don't see how this complaint sticks.

But, what are they gonna do now? Buccholz and Lester both threw tonight, so both are lined up for Saturday. Lester gave up 1 R in 6 IP for Portland, but walked 4, K'ing as many. Buccholz gave up 5 R in 5 IP, but according to guys on SoSH who watched the game, his pitch selection was very limited, almost all fastballs and almost no changeups.

My preference would be Buccholz into the rotation on Saturday, Lester to long relief. The continued focus on the future for Buccholz, as opposed to working out the kinks in his full repertoire, suggests to me that they're not thinking too much about the present with Buccholz. Bradford reported today that Buccholz is not necessarily in the rotation plans:
Tavarez might get another start Saturday, although Clay Buchholz is a possibility. As of now, the Sox plan to integrate Jon Lester back into the starting rotation on Sunday at home against Baltimore.
That doesn't make a lot of sense to me. Do the Red Sox want to go to a six-man rotation? Matsuzaka would be perfectly well set up to throw on Sunday.

Even if you discount the importance of getting the best team on the field right now - and I wouldn't - this team's got a shot at the world series. We need to find out how Clay Buccholz can contribute to that. Unless they've seen something in the 2007 Lester that that rest of us don't see, I don't see why he should be more important.

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