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1. Miko Supports Shane's Spam Habit Posted: May 05, 2006 at 05:09 AM (#2004943)How do you strike out 15 in 10.1 and still give up 14 hits? Is that a .625 BABIP?
Foulke warmed up when Clement was struggling in the 6th. I think he just figured he'd send him in for an inning because he was already warm. It wasn't about the game being in doubt. Tito definitely seems to think that once a pitcher has warmed up, throwing an inning doesn't add too much extra stress.
I'm not too concerned about the innings totals by the top relievers. The Red Sox have had a pretty weird distribution of runs, where in half of their games, there's been either a tied ninth or a save opp 9th. That won't continue, for the same reason that Bobby Thigpen holds the save record - there's only so many opportunities a team will create.
It seems likely to me that the new pitching'n'defense Sox will play more close games than the team has in the past, and Tito might need to adjust slightly, and not worry about getting work for his guys in less close games. But I think the overall stats so far, which show a very heavy workload for the best relievers, are greatly a function of the run distribution, and I expect they'll even out.
IP H HR R BB SO10.1 14 4 11 4 15
It's weird. It seems like Seanez' slider is completely nasty, but his fastball is straight and mediocre, and he doesn't always get the break on the slider that he needs. But I don't really understand, from watching him - that's just speculation, really.
Tavarez' ZiPS predicts he'll only give up three HR in 71 innings. Since he's already given up three in nine innings, that means we can expect sparkling, HR-free relief for the rest of the season, right? RIGHT?
--You use your best pitchers in close games, not in games you’re winning by a lot.
--You can let pitchers throw more than 1 ip per appearance.
--You practically have to let pitchers throw more than 1 ip per appearance or you will quickly burn them out."
Wow. This seems as absurdly presumptuous as that other guy's posts in game chatter who's always nitpicking and second guessing Varitek's pitch calling.
Do we have any evidence that it's easier on pitchers to throw more IP/g to throw the same amount of innings?
But there might be a bigger issue here: As griffy hints in #9, the FO made some big bets on veteran talent this off-season, and not too many of them seem to be paying huge dividends. Not only in the bullpen, but around the keystone. Sure, it's way early, but...
Given the disarray in the FO this winter, we should avoid pointing fingers of blame at any one guy, but I'm going to cut Tito a little slack (temporarily) for over-using guys who are getting hitters out because, once again, he's hampered by some "talent" that's stinking real bad right now.
Of course, a sunshiney appraisal would be that these guys will soon get it together and we'll romp...
Interesting observation about the subject you just offered. What about Pedro?
On Pedro, I think Varitek probably deferred to him a lot. I wouldn't call a game if I were catching Pedro.
what about him? he was pretty much a god. there was nothing varitek could do to make him inneffective.
This is fine for Schilling. He throws straight fastballs, and has no movement. He gets outs by hitting spots. The problem w/ Varitek is he acts like everybody 'hits spots' like that, and can. But Clement has lots of movement on his fastball and other pitches. So let the movement work. He wouldn't set up outside 0-2 for Wakefield? He'd say, 'do your thing.' So why does he do it for others, when they basically win baseball games doing the same thing. Throw pitches that move, watch hitters miss. Sometimes they hit them, but often they don't. I mean, Varitek could even ask for more pitches. Maybe he could try to get Clement to throw a straight 4-seamer early in the count so then he can throw his other pitches. But for the life of me, I don't get why he insists on acting like pitchers with great movement should throw like Schilling. I frankly think it's related to his obsession with hitters weaknesses instead of his own pitcher's strengths.
This is what I'm talking about. With Schilling for example. You gotta keep them honest, but... when there's runners on, on 0-2/1-2 counts, I think 'Tek needs to call a lot more fastballs up and in, or splitters/sliders away to try to get K's. I hate this pitching to contact stuff with men on and there being a count where there's a significant chance of a K if the hitter swings at a pitch out of the zone. And, you throw a bunch of splitters away ahead in the count, you can get some called strike 3's with the heater on the outside corner, with the "bluff factor." Not as much downside.
This is exactly my point. They have had a lot of close games which have required the use of the best relievers. On that point, they are doing the right thing by using their best pitchers in high lev situations. But they've also had games like Thursday, where they're up by a lot and still use those best pitchers. That's a bad idea.
Foulke is hard to pin down, because he started the season in mop-up, as Francona kept trying to get him 2 IP stints in low-lev situations to get him back on track. His numbers are high, but it's hard to identify a pattern that will continue. I will note that Foulke has four 70 G, 85 IP seasons in his career, and one 70 G, 100 IP season. Foulke's on pace for 83 G, 106 IP, which is higher, but not too far away from workloads he's handled before. Exactly what pattern the Sox have in mind for Foulke isn't clear yet,
Timlin's projection seems well within the range of normal - 70 IP in 78 G. That's a few too many games, but it's within expectations. He seems to be on his normal set-up pattern.
Foulke is the only one I can see some worries with. I don't know what pattern they're going to use him in, but so far, he's pitched in a few too many games. His pattern remains to be seen, and it's possible that it could include too many non-close games.
Generally, overuse poses two worries: (a) diminished effectiveness as one wears down over the season; (b) heightened risk of a blowout that might shorten a career.
Might the Sox be totally ignoring (b) because Foulke, IIRC, is in the final year of his deal?
My point is that they were already high 3 games ago. The past 3 games have provided various opportunities to ease off those three guys, and he has not done so. My concern is that if you're going to overwork them when you have a bunch of close games, then continue to do so in games where it's not close, when will they get rest?
And as I said above, Foulke warmed up in the 6th when Clement was in danger of making it a close game. He pitched becuase he'd warmed up already, not because Tito thought the game was in doubt.
So when the game got within 5-1 with one runner on, Foulke warmed up? Doesn't sound all that close, but fine I guess. I have a little secret and apparently I'm the only one who knows about it. Warming up is not as stressful as warming up + pitching in a game. You can actually have a guy warm up and then not use him. It's not as easy on him as if he never warmed up, but it is, in fact, less stressful than being put into the game. Tito/whoever seem to take this to the extreme.
Thuesday, there's Foulke for an inning. That's one opportunity, and as I said, there were extenuating circumstances.
There's also two three-run saves by Papelbon, but if he doesn't pitch those innings, either Timlin or Foulke takes them, so it hardly reduces the strain on the three.
As I see it, there's one inning in the last three games that perhaps shouldn't have gone to the big three, but did. I agree that pitching that inning was more stressful than not pitching it, but it's not a situation where Tito just decided out of hte blue to throw Foulke into a 6-run game. And I don't see "various opportunities" in the last three games - which other situations were you thinking of?
--Wed: Using any of the three for 2 IP would have let one rest and also set you up better for extras.
--Thurs: the aforementioned Foulke opportunity.
--Fri: use Timlin for 2 IP, saving Foulke.
The other thing that's weird is that we have a couple years of evidence that Tavarez is a good setup man. He hasn't pitched well thus far this year, so he's been pitching mopup. Meanwhile, on the offensive side, you have Loretta still batting #2, despite being lousy last year and just terrible this year. Why are they treated so differently? (That isn't meant as a criticism, per se, but just a question.)
use Foulke in close games.
use Foulke for longer than 1 inning at a time.
but take Foulke out when the game is no longer close.
use Foulke regularly.
don't use Foulke too much.
don't use him to finish games just for the sake of finishing games.
I'm not really sure we need all these situational rules.
The Foulke Rules should be (in order):
1. Use him regularly, but not too much.
2. Use him for 4-8 batters at a time.
3. As long as he's one of our most effective relievers, bring him in when the game is close, and take him out when the game is no longer close.
In my view, Rule 3 is important, but subordinate to rules 1 and 2. I think that's Tito's view as well.
I heard Youks say in an interview before the game last night that Loretta has been hitting tons of liners, but they've all been at defenders. I think he's right, and Loretta will start climbing toward .280-.300 pretty soon. I think the reason Tito hasn't pulled Loretta is because he and the coaches and hte FO believe that Loretta is hitting much better than his stats show, and that this ought to show up in his production as the season goes along.
On the other argument, I don't think that 2-inning outings make much a difference. As I said, all those innings go to the big three, and they'd still have the same total IP projection, which was half of your argument above.
Further, if Timlin throws the ninth last night, you need to get Papelbon up in the bullpen if anyone gets on base - if it comes down to a 1-run game, you have to have Papelbon ready to step in. So it doesn't rest the pitchers quite as well as it might seem. On Wednesday, Foulke pitched poorly, so he would have been a bad choice for a second inning. I guess Timlin could have pitched the ninth, but then I'd be complaining about high-lev innings going to suboptimal pitchers. Would you have preferred Timlin pitch the ninth on Wednesday?
I think modern managers are primed to make quick decisions on releivers - this guy's got it or he doesn't. If he does, then the manager rides the hot hand. If he doesn't, then the manager shunts him off to mopup duty.
Position players get more slack because they have bigger and therefor presumably more stable track records. That doesn't quite fit Loretta because he wasn't very good last year either, but in general it's true.
I think that's a pretty good intuitive understanding of the different kinds of statistical pedigrees that the two types of players are apt to have. It may be frustrating in particular situations, but in general it makes sense.
1) Foulke pitched so poorly that he had to be relieved in the 7th. Timlin was already in the game, so he would not have been saved for extras.
2) In the top of the 8th, the Sox were losing by a run. I don't think that's a high enough leverage situation to stretch out your closer for two innings.
On the other argument, I don't think that 2-inning outings make much a difference. As I said, all those innings go to the big three, and they'd still have the same total IP projection, which was half of your argument above.
It's part of my argument for sure. I'd much rather see Paps and Foulke end up with 85 IP than what' they're on pace for. But dropping the number of appearances is easily as important. Throwing 85-90 games is just as rare, and seems likely to be as straining, as pitching 100 IP.
This is why I only noted Foulke's extra inning and not the possibility of 2 IP stints. Asking for 2 IP stints is asking for Francona to change the usage patterns of these pitchers. I have argued that they are currently being used on patterns perfectly normal to MLB, and thus we can conclude that the cause of their high G and IP totals is not the usage pattern (because so few MLB pitchers ever throw 85 G), but rahter the cause is the distribution of close games. If the cause is the distribution of close games, there's no need to change the usage pattern - the problem will solve itself.
There's another little secret: warming up yesterday + pitching today is more stressful than not warming up yesterday + pitching today. When warming up, relievers often throw more pitches than they do in a game, and only so many of those warmup throws are less stressful to the body.
Not only is it Fracona's job to make sure the right kinds of relievers are available for the next day, but also that enough relievers are available for the next day. Bringing in X relievers, while warming up X+Y, is not good. If you're going to warm him up, there's not much sense in sitting him down & bringing someone else in.
Now, I'll agree with you that there were possibly some better choices than Foulke in that situation. Even with a 4-run lead that early in the game I'm not sure I'd get Foulke warming up. Frankly, I don't understand the Incredible Disappearing Delcarmen. But given he was warmed up, he's the right guy to bring in.
Also, Loretta doesn't strike out much, feeding the conventional wisdom of "he'll put the ball in play when you want him to." Youks fits much more into the Bellhorn mold as a #2 with his three true outcomes profile.
Really? Youkilis doesn't hit for much power, and while he's struck out a decent amount so far this season, that hasn't been true of him in the past, has it? He seems to have struck out a lot looking so far, though I haven't seen any numbers on that. I think he needs to protect the plate a bit more with two strikes, but I don't see him as a "three true outcomes"-type hitter. He's more of a line drive and singles hitter who walks a lot, isn't he?
I don't know. His SLG right now is higher than Bellhorn's in his '04 season, and he also is tied with Manny for the team lead in Ks.
He's beginning to remind me of a right-handed Wade Boggs, though Boggs had much better bat control.
bellhorn fits much more into the #4 mold in san diego.
It seems to me Foulke is regarded, in our lefty-free pen, as "the righty who gets lefties out". Tito likes to bring in Foulke in the middle of an inning to face a lefty. And I've seen Tito make at least one statement to the effect that he likes for Foulke to face lefties.
Am I the last one to notice this? Hadn't seen it really discussed, but maybe I missed the discussion.
Papelbon and Timlin are down to 91 and 66 projected IP, respectively. Li'l Papi still projects to 85 games, which is too many, but not too far from reasonable. Another week with only occasional high-lev situations and they'll both be on perfectly normal projected schedules.
Do you trust Rudy Seanez with an 8-run lead?
The Orosco Administration must be stopped.
It looks like there will be a few roster moves over the few next weeks as Riske, Wells, and Coco come back. Holtz, DiNardo and Mohr/Harris are the obvious choices to go down, although you could probably make a weak case for Dinardo staying on as LOOGY/long man, if such a thing is possible.
Riske threw 26 pitches (13 strikes, 13 balls) to four hitters, fanning the first two, then walking the next two. He's probably at least a week, maybe two, away.
-- MWE
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