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On Lackey vs. the rest of the dreck, I think you have to go with him and hope he can give 6 IP, 3-4 runs. He does seem to be doing that reasonably well... I guess. One of the younger guys seems a lot more likely to give you a real nightmare start.
As I write this, Lackey just again failed to get 2 straight scoreless innings. Sigh.
Love the update to the MLB AtBat app for the iphone
Sabathia, Colon, Nova, and Garcia all blow those splits out of the water.
Odd result. The Yankees have a higher exp W% and exp Ws, are ahead of the Sox, and have a much higher % of winning the Div., but the Sox have a higher playoff %.
That's because the guys calculating those percentages saw that ninth inning camera scan of Scott Proctor in the Yankees bullpen.
Yes, THAT Scott Proctor.
And in a Yankees uniform, not in civvies.
Jesus, I thought he was dead and buried somewhere out there in Forest Lawn, next to Joe Torre and Mel Stottlemyre. Guess not. But anyway, I'll bet that explains that lower playoff %.
Yes, but in the past, the dropoff to our fourth starter has been nowhere near as apocalyptic as it is now. You would hope that this would encourage them to at least look into the possibility, especially with the Yankees demonstrating that it can be done successfully.
Also, you need more than just one starter who can go short rest to pull it off. Having Beckett alone isn't going to cut it. But Lester is now much more established as a workhorse, and Bedard is a rental anyway, so who cares...
2. Some scenarios that involve the Angels taking the WC would have them doing so by beating up on the Yankees, who play 3 in Anaheim. (As of this moment, Boston's entire remaining schedule is against just the AL East. The Yankees have a west coast trip.) This tilts things back in favor of Boston.
That's all true. But they were down 2-1 and had a chance to get 2 more starts out of Beckett without messing anyone else up in the 2007 ALCS. You may be right, though, they may rethink it based on the current circumstances.
The question is: Does Wakefield get a roster spot? He has his uses--in a blowout loss, he soaks up the innings you'd prefer not to give to Aceves, who you may need for 6th/7th inning duties... But where would that leave the staff?
Beckett
Lester
Bedard
Lackey
Wakefield
Aceves
Morales
Wheeler
Bard
Papelbon
Would they go with just 10 for an ALDS roster? Or would they throw Miller in there to make it 11? There is, after all, a decent chance Bard/Papelbon are looking at working either all 5 games or 4 of 5, depending on circumstances.
I think you almost have to have Wake on the roster, as the chance of a Disaster Start for Lackey is so high you can't risk blowing through a short pen in a Game 4 with an all-or-nothing Game 5 looming. Having Wake soak up those Game 4 innings helps rest the pen for an all-hands-on-deck Game 5.
I also think a three-man staff has a lot to recommend it for the Red Sox. Obviously it depends on the specific pitchers, but we know Beckett can work well on short rest, and a somewhat less effective Lester or Bedard is still a lot better than Lackey.
Matt, what's the confidence factor that Red Sox fans have in Bedard? Is he someone they think could hold down offenses like the Yankees or the Rangers? From his record since the trade, he looks like a pitcher who doesn't implode, but OTOH he's only averaging 5 1/3 innings a start. Does that indicate managerial strategy or just a lack of endurance? He's clearly better than Lackey, but do you really think that he'd be capable of handling short rest against the best offenses in baseball? Wouldn't that likely put a strain on the bullpen?
BTW that's not a "concern troll" question, because believe me, the Yankees have similar questions about their rotation once you get past Sabathia. Nova / Garcia / Colon have been pretty reliable and effective, but among them only Nova has averaged 6 innings per start, and he hits it right on the nose. Sabathia's the only one who gives the bullpen a breather.
-Bedard has pitched very well with the Red Sox and I'm confident in him as a 3rd starter
-Bedard has top quality stuff and does not look like a guy who will have particularly more trouble against good teams
-Bedard has a tendency to lose control of the zone in an inning every now and again, which destroys his pitch counts and forces shorter outings
-His problem, as such, isn't endurance in that he loses it early, but efficiency in that he throws too many pitches early in games
-The Red Sox have been very careful with Bedard, and he could probably push his pitch counts a bit more in the playoffs
So, I'm confident in Bedard as a guy who can give a good 5-6 innings in the playoffs, and clearly has the capacity to dominate any offense if he shows up firing on all cylinders. He's unlikely to work deep into a game, and he'll walk a few guys, but I like having him behind Beckett and Lester a lot more than I liked having Lackey there.
I think it's more like that the Blue Jays aren't in the Rangers' class at this point, and that the Yankees are now playing their best ball of the year. Also, the first two games of that series were very close, and the last one didn't break wide open until the late innings.
--------------------------------
Thanks for your take on Bedard, Matt. I remember him as an ace on the Orioles, but I've lost track of him since then. From what you say, when he's up against the Yankees his key is going to be getting ahead in the count and then not trying to nibble. The Blue Jays pitchers did that against Cano and Swisher both Saturday and yesterday, getting two quick strikes and then wasting two pitches, and they paid for it dearly every time. Not that this is exactly news to anyone familiar with both the Yanks and the Red Sox, but it's always kind of amazing to me the way that so many pitchers seem to think that they can outlast the likes of Cano and Pedroia.
Bedard was coming off the DL when the Red Sox traded for him, and was on some strict pitch limits for his first couple of starts. That more than anything is what has limited his innings per start so far with the Sox. I believe his last start was the first where he was not on a limit, although they're still going to be careful with him down the stretch.
chart
I can't imagine the Red Sox ought to be favored for legitimate reasons unless Buchholz pitches well in a couple of games before the end of the regular season.
chart
Here's something else you might want to know about Bedard and the Yankees: He's faced them only twice since he left the Orioles at the end of 2007, and in those two starts (both in 2008) he gave up 10 earned runs in 11.1 innings. His career W-L / ERA against the Yanks is 4-5 / 4.32.
The Tigers have Cabrera, but they also have the sub-300 OBPs of Delmon Young, Magglio Ordonez, Brandon Inge, Ryan Raburn, Don Kelly, and Ramon Santiago taking up 3-4 spots in their batting order. Unlike a club with poor back-of-the-rotation starters, those guys have to play just as many games as Cabrera and Martinez.
Verlander's great, but the other three games will be divided between Doug Fister, Max Scherzer, and either Brad Penny or Rick Porcello.
I think you can make the case that the top-heavy nature of Detroit's roster makes them a better club for the playoffs than their expected record projects, but it's really hard for me to see how they aren't worse than Texas.
I saw Eddie Murray hit one there off Mike Torrez in the early 80's. The ball carried better in Fenway then though, especially in mid-summer.
Not just playoffs, but 5-game series. I don't know how to research this best, but I think Detroit would be a more formidible adversary in the first round than in future rounds.
For that matter, you can beat the Tigers without beating Verlander at all.
Twice I've had a strong preference for who the Yankees play in the first round (the Angels in 2002 and Tigers in 2006) and the Yankees were a collective 2-6 in those Series. I've given up any notion that one team is a better match-up for another, especially in the first round.
Same feeling with the same influences, by the way. My point is not to express a preference for my team to play and beat, but to point out that there are no creampuffs in the playoffs, particularly in a very short series. Your team's wonderfulness does not result in a walkover.
Because people are still betting based on Spring Training expectations?
What kind of odds are you giving on a BRef sponsorship bet?
And you're misunderstanding me. You can lose both of Verlander's starts and still beat the Tigers. It undeniably makes it more difficult, but you don't actually have to beat Verlander at all to win the series, and you most definitely don't have to "beat him twice."
Verlander starts Game 1, Tigers win
Non-Verlander starts Game 2, Yankees win
Non-Verlander starts Game 3, Yankees win
Non-Verlander starts game 4, Yankees win
Series over, Verlander undefeated, Tigers defeated. If the Tigers push Verlander up to game 4, then he can win that game and the Tigers can lose the series in the fifth game.
The difference between facing the Tigers (w/ homefield) and facing the Rangers (w/o homefield) probably amounts to 5-15 percentage points in series win expectation. It's a real difference, and no one gambling money on, or setting odds for who will win the American League should ignore it. That doesn't mean this difference is determinative, that we can know who will win the Divisional Series matchups based on such calculations. The Rangers are clearly better, but that doesn't mean they will win their series or that the Tigers will lose theirs. Baseball's too good a sport for that to be the case.
American League
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL
Yankees 99 63 870 657 63.0% 36.7% 99.7%
Red Sox 98 64 860 694 36.9% 62.3% 99.3%
http://www.rlyw.net/index.php/RLYW/comments/monte_carlo_standings_and_postseason_odds_through_september_4_2011
*EDIT*
"Sprained Ankle* appears to be the diagnosis, which doesn't tell us what we really want to know.
Buchholz? I mean, sure, great, everything will be great if Buchholz comes back healthy. That fact should influence the Red Sox in not one way at all down the stretch.
Tuesday - Lester
Wed - Wake
Thursday - Miller
Friday - Lackey
Saturday - ???
Sunday - ???
People keep acting like the playoffs are a certainty and it's not. This ####### team can't hit with any consistency and the pitching is a mess. Other than Papelbon and Bard there isn't a reliever to be relied on.
I know, I know, I'm pants pissing with a 7 game lead but after Toronto we have 3 with Tampa, 3 more with Toronto, and 4 with Tampa. There is a decent chance the WC lead is 3 games by the time the weekend is over and then it's game ####### on. This group of players needs to get their heads out of their asses ####### soon.
Wed - Wake
Thursday - Miller
Friday - Lackey
Saturday - ???
Sunday - ???
Any word yet on Beckett's ankle / foot?
that's why you need guy like Tim Wakefield on your staff.
Can't be good if they're talking amputation so quickly.
The two teams have 22 games to go, and the Red Sox are 7 games up.
If Boston goes 7-15 the rest of the season (and finishes 91-71), Tampa will have to go 15-7 to beat the Red Sox.
If Boston goes 11-11, Tampa has to go 19-3.
Bottom line: If the Red Sox can finish close to .500 the rest of the way, and they avoid getting swept by Tampa in each remaining series, they'll be in the playoffs.
Looking at it that is almost irrelevant with 7 head to head games in there.
To have a realistic chance TB needs to go 6-1, esp. since they've got an extra 3 vs. the Yanks, though the Yankees probably won't care by the last series.
that ought to make Tito feel comfortable.
John Lackey, Game 2 starter...
The Red Sox ticket scene is probably unique, in that face value is very high, but still below what the market could bear in general. The current secondary market situation is frustrating for many people, although I'm skeptical that any new regulations would do much besides shift the profits around and probably towards the lawmakers' allies. The article leads with a couple of fans who willingly paid $130 per ticket for bleacher seats for a recent Sox/Yankees game. Their story can't be typical, as only someone blessed with a big combination of gullibility and laziness would agree to that deal (not very hard to beat that price).
I believe that the people who cry "It's not fair that I don't get tickets for really cheap" and those that retort with "it's just simple supply and demand that determines ticket price" are both looking at the situation naively. I think a secondary market should exist, but one in which 10-20% (or more) of the tickets flow thru is grossly inefficient and riddled with potential corruptions. I wonder if the Sox' season-ticket holders should be paying more per ticket (face value) when buying from the Sox compared to someone buying individual games from the Sox (face value). Right now, season tickets are a steep discount because they are cheaper face value AND people buying individual games over the phone or online have to pay big transaction fees. Or, the Sox could follow the Patriots' lead and revoke tickets for season-ticket holders who sell for profit.
I can't tell you how frustating it is to me to see how little they do to combat the scalping. I see the same guys in the same spot every game but meanwhile I follow the rules and only sell to friends and family at face value. Technically I believe my contract with the Sox says I'll lose my tickets if I sell above face value.
Nate, I think the great majority of season ticket holders do what I do. I get why you are suggesting what you suggest but I think you'd be punishing many for the transgressions of the few.
Speaking of my season tickets, is there anyone else out there who has paid for post-season tickets with a debit card? The transaction went trhough last week but now the money is back in my account even though a call to the Sox this morning says my bill is indeed paid up.
Maybe, but I'm skeptical. How else are there literally thousands of tickets on stubhub for most games (not to mention craigslist/ebay etc)? Stubhub makes it so easy to sell the games that you can't use - and while selling them you might as well profit. There's no work to it, no meet-up with a stranger, it is all over the phone. And I don't blame the season ticket holders who do this. The profit margin is so good; I'm pretty sure a pair of bleachers for a season-ticket holder costs $25 per ticket, but if I buy it from the Sox I pay an increased face value and service fees so it ends up being $35 per ticket. (I am assuming here that season ticket holders don't pay service and transaction fees when paying for their plan). So the season ticket holders get below-below market rates for tickets, AND guaranteed playoff tickets. Lots of people would take that deal if more plans were available
Are there really that many? Wow.
Even so just looking at the current stubhub list there are 3,314 tickets available for the 9/21 game against Baltimore (the high game on a quick glance). Figure stubhub is the most common reseller and add 50% to that number to get to about 5,000 tickets you're still talking about ~25-33% of the season ticket base for a game that is fairly unattractive. Mid-week, crappy opponent, uncertain weather that still means a lot of season ticket holders have their tickets. And looking at the list of games it seems that the average is about 1,500-2,000 tickets.
Admittedly, seeing that many tickets is shocking and obviously I have a dog in this fight.
I really don't understand how it is possible for a place like StubHub to exist. I don't understand how what they are doing is not scalping.
Every KC-Sox game I've gone to, I've seen guys standing on the freeways, and in front of the hotels selling tickets. Who goes to a KC game without tickets? Especially when you can go to Stub-hub to get below face, or mlb or the ticket office at Kauffman and get face value. It's those scalpers that I don't understand how they don't go broke.
The Red Sox are an unusual situation because I'm guessing they could sell more season tickets than they do currently, but that's definitely an exception and not the rule when it comes to MLB.
It's the perception that tickets are rare that helps the secondary market prices. With a little bit of effort, it's not hard to get regular-season tickets even at Fenway at or near retail face value.
What makes it trickier is that a significant portion of ticketholders are out of state. Scalping laws in MA don't apply to transactions in other states. (Only the U.S. Congress can regulate interstate commerce.)
I paid with a credit card, but now you're making me regret it...
My current job comes in handy for the first time here. I see this at the bank where I work for. The Red Sox haven't collected on the authorization that they have obtained within the given timeframe for the bank that you use (for mine, it's 3-4 days). Since merchants collect on authorizations within that timeframe 99% of the time, the bank assumes that this is a hold that won't be used (like using a card to hold a car or a room and then paying cash or with a different card) and then releases the funds back into the account. The merchant still has the authorization to collect on funds at no further notice to you.
So basically the Sox are waiting until some specific date (probably the date the payment is due which I think is Thursday) and they'll just do a sweep of all the accounts at once? That seems odd to me but I'll assume it saves the club some money.
This is why maybe, in this unique case, it might make sense for season-ticket holders to pay the same price as individual game buyers (or even more). Normally, I think sports season-tickets are sold at a discount so that teams can (1) get the money earlier, (2)avoid the risk of not selling them later, and (3)reward loyal long-time fans. For the Red Sox, (1) and (2) are not much of a worry, as they could probably sell almost everything in advance anyway. And as for (3), why give a loyalty price to people who are just turning around and making money off of you? For you guys in this thread, who maybe do deserve loyalty, you would still be getting a great deal even at retail face value.
I'm guessing that's the case.
But I wish the owners would do a couple of token revokations for scalping, just to put a scare in people. I think the Patriots did that recently.
That's when it began to go bad.
Jinxes do not exist. The next time the Sox break 99.9% playoff probability, I'm gonna write the same post.
They do. I said, "If..ok, WHEN the Sox clinch" and it all went downhill from there. It's my fault and I've apologized, bargained...nothing's worked. It's payback for Red Sox hubris. "100 wins", "Best team ever".
I for one have little interest in baseball analysis that has to bite its own tongue and mouth platitudes about when it's over.
This is a huge problem for the projections, IMO. Absent a confidence interval or measure of variability, they present a misleading view of odds. Of course the collapse is crazy. It's a crazy nightmare of suck-chokery. But it's interesting that a number of people predicted it fairly far ahead of time. Maybe those people were chicken littles who got lucky, but maybe there's something else going on. When our guts tell us one thing and the numbers say something else, that's a good opportunity for reflection - are our models adequate, are we blinded by our emotions/biases, is there something we're not seeing?
Not really sure what this is responsive to. There's been an explosion of Red Sox chatter on the site lately.
EDIT: Thanks for getting much of that started, by the way.
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