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   1. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: February 20, 2011 at 11:50 PM (#3754700)
110 games feels a bit light. CFBPS is projecting Tito will take his foot off the gas after clinching onLabor Day I guess.
   2. Phil Coorey is a T-Shirt Salesman Posted: February 21, 2011 at 12:20 AM (#3754707)
Love it Mikael
   3. Repoz Posted: February 21, 2011 at 12:28 AM (#3754709)
110? Hell, even CBS' Scott Miller sez...

So what is it going to be for the Big Red Sox Machine? A century-mark's worth of wins? Maybe blow past the 1998 Yankees' 114-48?
   4. Fancy Pants Handles lap changes with class Posted: February 21, 2011 at 03:13 AM (#3754785)
WTH?! I was expecting AGon to make a run at the single season home run record!
   5. Darren Posted: February 21, 2011 at 03:51 AM (#3754802)
Outstanding. My faves:
instead of just averaging and regressing them like a punk, isolates one or two key,


Kevin Youkilis, 315/440/538, 116 R, 120 RBI (robbed of MVP third place)
Dustin Pedroia, 322/397/503 (robs MVP third place from slightly superior Youk)


Just very, very funny stuff. Bravo.
   6. Darren Posted: February 21, 2011 at 03:54 AM (#3754805)
ZIPS is higher on Agonz's BA than CFBPS is.
   7. robinred Posted: February 21, 2011 at 04:33 AM (#3754822)
How does CFBPS see 2011 shaking out for Casey Kelly and Anthony Rizzo?
   8. Hugh Jorgan Posted: February 21, 2011 at 04:36 AM (#3754824)
Any post that utilises the word #######' is a good one.

I assume then that the CFBPS system would then project NO blown saves for Paps this year!

Damn, can't believe the nanny blotted out b*tchin'...
   9. Darren Posted: February 21, 2011 at 04:44 AM (#3754829)
MC let me take a look at the spreadsheet and I think I remember it saying that Kelly and Rizzo get radioactive cooties and miss the season with hilarious itching.
   10. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: February 21, 2011 at 04:48 AM (#3754833)
How does CFBPS see 2011 shaking out for Casey Kelly and Anthony Rizzo?


Both will be excellent encouraging the Padres to trade Heath Bell to Boston for Mark Wagner. The Padres will also kick in some cash so the Sox can extend Bell.
   11. TomH Posted: February 21, 2011 at 02:27 PM (#3754926)
Yes, but CHB would predict the Yanks sneak into the playoffs as a 91-win wild card, and beat the Sawx in the ALCS as Mo KOs the side each game in the 9th. So the curse starts again.
   12. TVerik, the gum-snappin' hairdresser Posted: February 21, 2011 at 02:42 PM (#3754929)
Also, Alfredo Aceves - 90 games, 2.14
   13. The Piehole of David Wells Posted: February 21, 2011 at 05:05 PM (#3755006)
Is it just me or are the projections somewhat reasonable? Or, to put it another way, they all appear achievable. When I think CFBPS, I think some of the things that have been said in the comments, like Gonzalez smashing the single-season HR record. I found the description of the system funny, but the numbers seem possible. Or am I just CFB blind?

If the CFBPS were working correctly, I'd expect Beckett's numbers to to beat 24-4, 2.48, 238 K's, just because the CFBPS should hate the Rocket. It feels, right?
   14. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: February 21, 2011 at 05:25 PM (#3755022)
This is one of the primary renoobulations of CFBPS. It had tended, in the past, to produce silly numbers. These were fun, but ultimately silly numbers can always be sillier - why project 65 HRs when you can project 80? What's a .360 batting average when someone could hit .420? This led to people feeling free to produce their own, sillier numbers off the top of their heads because they thought the CFBPS was nothing more than a fanboy making up numbers in his head. Which, of course, couldn't be farther from the truth. The CFBPS engine and I worked tirelessly to line up its reality principle with its pleasure principle. (Most projection systems run on Bayesian engines, which are dumb and never wear suits. The CFBPS is a Freudian engine.)
   15. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: February 21, 2011 at 05:28 PM (#3755025)
Piehole- I see you identified one of the key inputs to Beckett's projection. My best guess is that CFBPS is actually a Clemens fan, and sees Beckett as following in Clemens footsteps rather than one-upping him.
   16. The Clarence Thomas of BBTF (scott) Posted: February 22, 2011 at 03:35 PM (#3755674)
I think #14 is my favorite explanation of a theoretical model I've ever seen.

Does this mean that the victory cigars are just cigars?
   17. The Piehole of David Wells Posted: February 22, 2011 at 09:56 PM (#3756107)
Is there any way we can get CFBPS projections for the Yankees? And for some neutral, 3rd-party team who will, instead of winning or even participating in actual ballgames, just participate in their observation? I'm thinking the Pirates might be a good candidate.
   18. Dave Cyprian Posted: February 22, 2011 at 11:45 PM (#3756198)
Does CFBPS have any expectations for Red Sox-affiliated media? I'm thinking specifically about CHB, Felger and Eck in terms of persons who might surprise in 2011...
   19. Dan Posted: February 23, 2011 at 12:06 AM (#3756208)
I can't speak for CFBPS, but personally I would love for Eck to take over as the color guy. I don't want anything bad to happen to Jerry Remy, but he's really past time to be replaced. Orsillo isn't great, but he can do okay when he's paired with a good color guy, but Remy has just gotten too stale and disinterested to keep Orsillo engaged in the games.
   20. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: February 23, 2011 at 12:27 AM (#3756225)
I remember reading that Eck has teenage kids and doesn't want to travel while they're still living at home. So, hopefully, they'll head to college soon and he'll take over for Remy. And then hopefully Orsillo will get, I mean, I don't wish him ill, but maybe he can get a job in NESN's administration or something and his job can be given to someone with a personality.

On Shaughnessy, I enjoyed his latest column, in a certain way. (No links, obviously.) He basically says that the Red Sox have a great team and the clubhouse seems like a very positive place and all the new guys are admirable and good players to boot... and then he spends the next 2/3 of the column complaining about this state of affairs. It's revealing. It's not revealing of anything that wasn't already obvious, but it's more immediately revealing of what a damaged and vacuous man he is.
   21. Yeaarrgghhhh Posted: February 23, 2011 at 12:47 AM (#3756242)
This is one of the primary renoobulations of CFBPS. It had tended, in the past, to produce silly numbers. These were fun, but ultimately silly numbers can always be sillier - why project 65 HRs when you can project 80? What's a .360 batting average when someone could hit .420? This led to people feeling free to produce their own, sillier numbers off the top of their heads because they thought the CFBPS was nothing more than a fanboy making up numbers in his head. Which, of course, couldn't be farther from the truth. The CFBPS engine and I worked tirelessly to line up its reality principle with its pleasure principle. (Most projection systems run on Bayesian engines, which are dumb and never wear suits. The CFBPS is a Freudian engine.)

That's a great comment. In that spirit, here's my CFBPS for the Orioles:

B. Roberts .285/.360/.455, 110 OPS+, 30 steals (his 2009)
N. Markakis .305/.405/.495, 140 OPS+ (his 2008)
D. Lee .306/.395/.580, 145 OPS+ (his 2009)
L. Scott .285/.370/.535, 140 OPS+ (his 2010)
V. Guerrero .300/.345/.495, 120 OPS+ (his 2010)
M. Reynolds .260/.350/.540, 125 OPS+ (his 2009)

J. Guthrie 200 IP, 111 ERA+ (his 2010)
B. Bergesen 200 IP, 130 ERA+ (his 2009 extrapolated)
B. Matusz 200 IP, 140 ERA+
   22. Swedish Chef Posted: February 23, 2011 at 12:57 AM (#3756252)
That's a great comment. In that spirit, here's my CFBPS for the Orioles:

Nah, Markakis is due a career year as he is entering his peak age, projecting him to just match past glories is too conservative, OPS+ should be north of 150.
   23. tfbg9 Posted: February 23, 2011 at 01:20 AM (#3756264)
So, what the CFBPS does is replicate the "career year-one step
forward-rebound from injury/drug rehab kismet" that graced the '98 Yanks?
   24. Hugh Jorgan Posted: February 23, 2011 at 01:45 AM (#3756277)
I remember reading that Eck has teenage kids and doesn't want to travel while they're still living at home.

Gee, I have 3 teenagers and am more than happy to be out of the house while they are home!
   25. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: February 24, 2011 at 03:47 PM (#3757226)
There's a tossed-off mention on the Globe extra bases blog that Andrew Miller has regained his college velocity - he's been throwing in the mid to high 90s so far this spring, Cafardo reports. Miller had great velocity from the left side in college, but it disappeared almost as soon as his professional career began. Andrew Miller with his college fastball could be either a great new reliever or a legitimate front-of-the-rotation starting prospect. CFBPS is still mulling the options (it's either a or b!), but I should have some updates on the minor leaguers coming later this spring.
   26. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: February 24, 2011 at 04:02 PM (#3757242)
1. I like Orsillo/Remy. Admittedly I could do without some of the goofing around but they generally keep that to non-interesting games. Over 162 games a little levity doesn't hurt. I like Eck on an occasional basis but I think his schtick would be much more irritating over the course of a season. I will concede that I am a minimalist when it comes to my play by play men so Orsillo is up my alley.

2. Shaughnessy basically has two stock Spring Training columns; the "this team isn't that good" column and the "this team isn't very interesting" column where he begs for the days of Oil Can and the "Can Film Festival" and Wade Boggs willing himself invisible.

3. It seems obvious to me that CFBPS would come to the conclusion that an organization willing to try "Closer by Committee" would be willing to go with Andrew Miller as a starter then use him as a LOOGY on his throw day. It would be his first year so you don't want to overproject but I'm thinking 17-7, 3.25, 10 holds and maybe a couple of saves with some improvement expected in 2012.

4. Given some of his issues I wonder if Eck is a little protective as a father. Can't say I'd blame him, he certainly knows the trouble kids can get into and Jerry Remy's family isn't exactly a ringing endorsement on dad not being around.
   27. Mike Webber Posted: February 25, 2011 at 04:23 AM (#3757846)
1. I like Orsillo/Remy. Admittedly I could do without some of the goofing around but they generally keep that to non-interesting games. Over 162 games a little levity doesn't hurt. I like Eck on an occasional basis but I think his schtick would be much more irritating over the course of a season. I will concede that I am a minimalist when it comes to my play by play men so Orsillo is up my alley.


I agree with Jose on this, when Jerry was sick two summers ago I thought Eck got stale quick. I think Dave Roberts was one of the better fill ins that summer.

Plus Eck made about $25 Million more in his career than Remy, traveling all damn summer might be a lot less appealing to someone like that.

Orsillo is actually pretty good for TBS in the playoffs, which I think is a plus.
   28. chris p Posted: June 15, 2011 at 02:58 AM (#3853623)
too bad we didn't run a cfbps for ellsbury.
   29. Darren Posted: June 15, 2011 at 03:16 AM (#3853637)

There's a tossed-off mention on the Globe extra bases blog that Andrew Miller has regained his college velocity - he's been throwing in the mid to high 90s so far this spring, Cafardo reports. Miller had great velocity from the left side in college, but it disappeared almost as soon as his professional career began. Andrew Miller with his college fastball could be either a great new reliever or a legitimate front-of-the-rotation starting prospect. CFBPS is still mulling the options (it's either a or b!), but I should have some updates on the minor leaguers coming later this spring.


Hurry up--we need an answer!
   30. Textbook Editor Posted: June 15, 2011 at 04:15 AM (#3853673)
Here you go, it looks like Wakefield redux from 1995 only this time he goes by the name of Miller... Andrew Miller:

14-1 115 IP, 120 K, 2.56 ERA

[/wishcasting]
   31. Darren Posted: June 15, 2011 at 01:22 PM (#3853830)
Phew, that's a relief.
   32. Dan Posted: June 15, 2011 at 02:50 PM (#3853911)
According to Pete Abraham, Miller will be getting a start next week against San Diego. I'm excited to see him pitch after how well he's been doing at Pawtucket lately.
   33. Joel W Posted: July 18, 2011 at 09:08 PM (#3880526)
CFBPS: shockingly accurate for Gonzalez, Youk, Pedroia, Ortiz, and Beckett (and Papelbon's peripherals)

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