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— Where Thinking Red Sox Fans Obsess about the Sox

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   1. Jose Is The Most Absurd Thing on the Site Posted: March 29, 2012 at 02:33 PM (#4092452)
I think I got a pirated version of CFBPS for 2012 and it looks like there is still some work to be done. According to CFBPS Jose Iglesias will be called up in early June and hit .244/.297/.326. I know CFBPS is sometimes a bit optimistic but that just looks unattainable to me.
   2. Jose Is The Most Absurd Thing on the Site Posted: March 29, 2012 at 03:10 PM (#4092463)
Sticking with the theme of CFBPS the following are the players I am irrationally excited about for 2012;

Felix Doubront - I've liked this guy for a long time. I think last year is going to be a blessing in terms of getting him to understand what he needs to do from a conditioning and preparation standpoint.

Mike Aviles - This is where spring training is going to make me look dumb. If you had to pick the Ramon Ramirez/John Lackey guy that I'm geeked up over after seeing him up close it would be Aviles. He was smoking the ball and I also thought his defense looked far better than I remember it.

Lars Anderson - The more I read the more excited I get. I am thinking/hoping that this is the year he finally breaks out.
   3. Nasty Nate Posted: March 29, 2012 at 03:14 PM (#4092467)
The third run was a drawing, in ascii, of a man with a wolf’s head eating a spreadsheet.


I think this should be the BBTF mascot instead of that stupid chimp
   4. Darren Posted: March 29, 2012 at 03:39 PM (#4092475)
I hope the non-Sox fans on BTF pop into ST occasionally and get to enjoy this.
   5. villageidiom Posted: March 29, 2012 at 05:00 PM (#4092526)
I hope the non-Sox fans on BTF pop into ST occasionally and get to enjoy this.
It is that awesome.
   6. mos def panel Posted: March 29, 2012 at 06:05 PM (#4092570)
I hope the non-Sox fans on BTF pop into ST occasionally and get to enjoy this.

It is that awesome.


For real...

Excellent post, MCOA. Great stuff!
   7. Nasty Nate Posted: March 29, 2012 at 06:22 PM (#4092586)
Does the CFBPS have any projection for the career resurrection of The Blade down in Baltimore?
   8. tjm1 Posted: March 29, 2012 at 06:29 PM (#4092594)
Ridiculous. Alfredo Aceves was 10-2 last year, and he was just getting settled in in Boston. Now that he's comfortable, he should put up a better won-lost record.
   9. Fancy Pants Handles lap changes with class Posted: March 29, 2012 at 06:35 PM (#4092598)
Has CFBPS seen the quote from Beckett saying he was having a shagg-free spring training? That's got to be worth at least half a run in ERA.
   10. The Yankee Clapper Posted: March 29, 2012 at 06:37 PM (#4092599)
I hope the non-Sox fans on BTF pop into ST occasionally and get to enjoy this.

Can we take the under?
   11. The Piehole of David Wells Posted: March 29, 2012 at 07:17 PM (#4092613)
CFBPS was HOVG this year. Inner circle HOF last year. It'll be very hard to match the intro for 2011 CFBPS.
   12. The Piehole of David Wells Posted: March 29, 2012 at 07:38 PM (#4092619)
Actually, I remembered incorrectly. It was this exchange that was HOF from last year:

13. The Piehole of David Wells, Red Sox Colostomy Bag Posted: February 21, 2011 at 05:05 PM (#3755006)
Is it just me or are the projections somewhat reasonable? Or, to put it another way, they all appear achievable. When I think CFBPS, I think some of the things that have been said in the comments, like Gonzalez smashing the single-season HR record. I found the description of the system funny, but the numbers seem possible. Or am I just CFB blind?

If the CFBPS were working correctly, I'd expect Beckett's numbers to to beat 24-4, 2.48, 238 K's, just because the CFBPS should hate the Rocket. It feels, right?
14. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: February 21, 2011 at 05:25 PM (#3755022)
This is one of the primary renoobulations of CFBPS. It had tended, in the past, to produce silly numbers. These were fun, but ultimately silly numbers can always be sillier - why project 65 HRs when you can project 80? What's a .360 batting average when someone could hit .420? This led to people feeling free to produce their own, sillier numbers off the top of their heads because they thought the CFBPS was nothing more than a fanboy making up numbers in his head. Which, of course, couldn't be farther from the truth. The CFBPS engine and I worked tirelessly to line up its reality principle with its pleasure principle. (Most projection systems run on Bayesian engines, which are dumb and never wear suits. The CFBPS is a Freudian engine.)
15. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: February 21, 2011 at 05:28 PM (#3755025)
Piehole- I see you identified one of the key inputs to Beckett's projection. My best guess is that CFBPS is actually a Clemens fan, and sees Beckett as following in Clemens footsteps rather than one-upping him.
   13. The Mighty Quintana Posted: March 29, 2012 at 08:03 PM (#4092629)
Gold Glove for Nick Punto in only 85 games at SS!
Cody Ross and Ryan Sweeney combine for 150 runs!
Ryan Kalish comes back to steal all of their PT with a .320 avg in Aug/Sep!
Aceves starts and wins first game of day-nighter, and then relieves and wins second game!

This is fun....
   14. The Mighty Quintana Posted: March 29, 2012 at 08:06 PM (#4092630)
Michael Kay has 6-month bout with laryngitis!
Dwight Evans number 24 is retired!
Heidi Watney shows up at my door wearing a long coat but nothing underneath!

Ok, gotta stop now.
   15. Fancy Pants Handles lap changes with class Posted: March 29, 2012 at 08:33 PM (#4092639)
Heidi Watney shows up at my door wearing a long coat but nothing underneath!

Ok, gotta stop now.

TMI
   16. Darren Posted: March 29, 2012 at 08:38 PM (#4092640)
The bad news is she brought Varitek with her... and he's wearing the same thing.
   17. Mattbert Posted: March 29, 2012 at 09:26 PM (#4092657)
Based on Mikael's report on the CFBPS's erratic behavior, I tried writing a firmware patch for the poor thing. After several test iterations and a New Age sensitivity analysis, I found the range variable for CFBPS's Calvinistic angst is so buggy it's virtually unrecognizable. The creaky old Euler-Rieman zeta function at the core of this bit of code had completely gone off the rails and was spitting out nonsense. For example, it said Jose Iglesias was going to post the same 244/297/326 line that Seabiscuit reported earlier; however, it claimed he would do this in AAA and the majors simultaneously and then got locked into a recursive seizure-like fantasy about quantum tunneling, accompanied by continuous printing of the letters UZRSUX on Mobius strips. I didn't even know CFBPS's printer could do that. It was alarming, to say the least.

Anyway, I made a few tweaks after borrowing some concepts from ZiPS-Mandelbrot to get things back under some semblance of control. I'm telling you, that angst variable was seriously messed up. The string 01000001 01001110 01000100 01001001 01001110 01001111 was all over the code in totally random places as though scrawled on the walls of a cell by a deranged prisoner. If any of you guys have a binary translator applet that can make sense of it, let me know. I never learned to read it.

For the David Ortiz projection, CFBPS spat out 100110011001100110011001. I thought this was more binary gibberish, but then my four-year-old came in and called me an idiot and said it's obviously trying to tell us Big Papi's going to repeat his 2005 season (300/397/604).

Next up I did Shoppach. CFBPS gave me a 281/368/525 line followed by KELLYSGOINDEEP2NITE.

I queried Cody Ross and the CFBPS just started playing what I think was that Taio Cruz song 'Dynamite' over and over. It was hard to tell because CFBPS only runs on my home-built computer from 1995 which only has the original motherboard speaker. I don't know what that's all about.

Clearly some further refinements are needed, but I hope sharing the results of my testing helps.
   18. villageidiom Posted: March 30, 2012 at 09:36 AM (#4092800)
The string 01000001 01001110 01000100 01001001 01001110 01001111 was all over the code in totally random places as though scrawled on the walls of a cell by a deranged prisoner. If any of you guys have a binary translator applet that can make sense of it, let me know. I never learned to read it.
ANDINO. Well played.
   19. Mattbert Posted: March 30, 2012 at 02:16 PM (#4093084)
ANDINO. Well played.

I was wondering if anyone would bother with that. You "win"!
   20. villageidiom Posted: March 30, 2012 at 03:17 PM (#4093158)
I was wondering if anyone would bother with that. You "win"!
Sadly, I got the "A" on sight alone.
   21. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: March 30, 2012 at 03:53 PM (#4093205)
I was checking some of the minor leaguers, and Ryan Lavarnway's CFBPS MLE is a flat .300/.400/.600. That's somewhat disturbing. Also, it has Daisuke at a 2.60 ERA with an 8.5 K/9 ratio over 100 IP, but also predicts that Matsuzaka will eat Yu Darvish's brains and gain his knowledge.
   22. 'zop sympathizes with the wrong ####### people Posted: March 30, 2012 at 04:15 PM (#4093224)
I think you guys finally got CFBPS tuned right, I used it to predict the weather in Boston on June 1st and it spit out 55 degrees and heavy mist.
   23. dave h Posted: March 30, 2012 at 04:22 PM (#4093233)
What effect did Ellsbury overperforming his 2011 CFBPS have on the new version?
   24. vagab0nd (no longer an outl13r) Posted: April 02, 2012 at 03:10 PM (#4094832)
The bad news is she brought Varitek with her... and he's wearing the same thing.


Wouldn't it make more sense if she brought Youk?

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