User Comments, Suggestions, or Complaints | Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Advertising
|
Demarini, Easton and TPX Baseball Bats
|
AllianceTickets.com has cheap MLB Tickets. Get all your Colorado Rockies Tickets, Seattle Mariners Tickets, San Francisco Giants Tickets and all your favorite baseball tickets here. We also carry cheap Denver Broncos Tickets, Seattle Seahawks Tickets and Denver Nuggets Tickets. |
For wholesale prices on baseball gifts and equipment, check these stores out! |
Page rendered in 0.6118 seconds
63 querie(s) executed
Reader Comments and Retorts
Go to end of page
Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.
For what it's worth I'm on board in a big way on Victor Martinez, a bit less so on Nick Johnson and just can't accept living in a world where Cristian Guzman has value. I don't care if he hits .400, he'll always be the guy with the .300 OBP in Minnesota to me.
Why? I mean, can he actually catch anymore, and not just "fake it"? (not snark)
As a C he hits a ton as a 1B, not so much. He's 30...
Oh, but there's his Fenway split: .313/.361/.552!
i hope you get him.
ZiPS gives Victor Martinez an 833 OPS the rest of the season. He's not a difference maker unless we get stuck with George Kotteras as the everyday catcher.
I will say that Mark Kotsay needs to go. If he's currently so slow that Aaron Bates is pinch running for him, then he shouldn't be on the active roster
I am far from certain either of these guys are going to come back at full strength. Lowrie is hitting terribly in his rehab, and given that he's coming back from a wrist injury, I'd really want to see some evidence of full health before I got confident we have SS handled. And Lowell's injury is so weird, I don't see a lot of reason to assume he'll be back at his projected strength.
What Darren suggests, and what I basically agree with, is that given the uncertainty around Lowrie and Lowell, and given the possibility of another player getting hurt, it makes sense to fill the hole now and worry about overstocking a position later. Obviously "it makes sense" depends entirely on the quality of player acquired and his cost in talent, but I want the Red Sox to be looking for reasonable deals for guys like Johnson or Guzman or Tejada.
The Sox aren't going to trade for good players as depth in case someone gets injured. NL teams starting guys I've never heard of will be willing to offer a lot more.
thanks. you have convinced me that Victor Martinez is not a very good player. That 6% drop in CS rates in between Varitek and Martinez would obviously outweigh any other possible things that happen in a baseball game, and would cost the Sox dozens of games.
This is the RedSox number one need right now, addressing the gaping wound at thirdbase. Upgrading Green would also be nice but not as vital as JB said his defense at least is pretty solid. No more Lugo. Waive him, maybe the Mets will claim him.
So he'd be a small upgrade?
Right, should be able to, but as MC points out, there are good reasons to believe they won't. I want to be certain they have really good players to spread the playing time among. I'm willing to deal the overabundance of pitching depth to achieve that. I can understand they're likely still a little reticent after the Arroyo for Wily Mo deal, ("We have tons of pitchers! Let's deal this really good cheap one for a lottery ticket!") but I think the key is that this time, they get an actual good player.
Because if he even reaches the .833 OPS ZIPS forecasts that is still an upgrade over what I would expect to get out of Lowell/Kotsay. I'm in agreement with everyone who is hesitant to count on Lowell for the reasons suggested.
Lastly, I think ZIPS undersells him in this case. First, because Fenway is a better hitters' park than Progressive and second because I think ZIPS (and all other projection systems) don't work well for guys like Martinez who have one serious outlier season in a group of seasons.
I'm sure the guys here with more knowledge on this stuff will explain why I'm wrong but it seems illogical to me to assume that in five of the last six years his OPS has been higher than that so why would he drop? It's not a huge difference but I think he comes to Fenway and posts something North of .860 and I would bet that is close to .100 points better than what we will get from Lowell/Kotsay the remainder of the season.
Nobody is saying we should get a starting C, 2B, OF, DH, or pitcher.
Youkilis will play either 1st or 3rd, so that position is set.
It seems like most people acknowledge that Green is fine at SS until Lowrie comes back.
Our bench is Lugo, Kottaras, Kotsay, Baldelli, and (until Lowell comes back) Bates.
OK, that bench really sucks, and it's the reason we're talking about a trade right now.
I wouldn't trade much meaningful pitching depth (Buchholz, Bowden, Delcarmen, Bard) to upgrade the bench. Saito for a usable rental who can play a corner position pretty well would be great. Once Lowrie comes back, we have that guy.
Look, after 2010, Beckett, Ortiz, Lowell, Varitek, Lugo, and others' contracts are up. We'll need those prospects to make trades for real players this off-season and next. Victor Martinez has nothing to do with keeping the Red Sox in the hunt for a World Series every year over the next 3-5 years.
No, but they will go bad if you wait long enough. Especially the pancake mix. And of course, the chips will get stale.
Not sure if this is a positive or a negative for V-Mart.
Also, is Papi hurt, again? His BA is back below .200 for July.
To step away from the metaphor, it didn't seem like you considered future value when making your point. Smoltz, Penny, and possibly Wakefield aren't providing depth beyond this year, which means that one would have to exaggerate the rotational depth (to, say, nine) in order to imply future depth isn't a concern. And even that would assume that Matsuzaka is part of the depth.
I'm sure you're not expecting the expiration date on Buchholz, etc., to be in the next 12 months. I'm also sure you're not suggesting those prospects are going to stay in the minors forever. To me the consideration isn't what to do about a logjam at first or third when their players get healthy; it's what to do about 2009 vs. 2010+.
There's plenty of depth to deal from and there is a large hole to fill.
My unscientific method to test this is to look at a hitter's splits against power
pitchers, to see if its a big negative (most good pitchers are power pitchers).
For Victor, its not a big negative. He holds his own. You might be on to something with this.
He appears to be a hitter who doesn't pad his stats against the fat underbelly guys.
The only player I can think of who fits that bill would be Wood. The Angels were reportrd to be looking for pitching the last I looked; if Wood's is going to be blacklisted by Scioscia he'd be a good target, but I expect the Halos will go hard after Halladay(and let Lackey walk at the end of the year), and Wood would obviously have to be in the deal.
and
-------------------
You might be on to something with this.
It's not something I've ever tried to look up, and it is based on VERY small sample size. But against the Yankees, I definitely have noticed him handling tough pitches well.
However, at times the Royals have wanted a "major league" player in return when they deal a player like Teahen, the only player I see that would fit that definition would be Baldelli or if KC hadn't just picked up Betancourt, Lugo.
This isn't OOTP.
If you're serious, you are in danger of taking this crusade to the karlmagnus level. But I am enjoying it.
I'm very serious. But I fear I'm being misunderstood, or misinterpreted. I like Jonathan Papelbon. He's an entertaining guy, a World Series winner, and has been one of the top closers in baseball for as long as he's been in the Sox pen.
That said, I'm terribly fearful that there is a cliff just ahead, over which he is going to fall. I fear for his future, based on his changed pitch selection and performance. I'd like to get something for him while we still can.
So, I'm not anti-Papelbon. I just think there's something very wrong with his shoulder, and that it's better to bail out now than in 6 months.
I don't think there is a chance in hell he gets to free agency without a major arm injury though.
Not a chance in hell he makes it 2.5 years w/o a major arm injury? Why be so conservative with your pronouncements? Just say that within a couple years, his arm will literally fall off at the shoulder.
edit: he once missed 1 month of 1 season, and thats basically it in his 6 years of pro ball. Just because he's thrown a few more walks doesnt mean he's hurt
I'm optimistic that the skin at least will remain intact and keep the arm attached.
I'm a pessimist when it comes to Papelbon, I won't hide from that. Perhaps "major" was an unecessary qualifier but I just don't think he's going to stay healthy. I hope I'm spectacularly wrong though.
I dont think he's any more a risk to get hurt than Okajima, Ramirez, Delcarmen, Saito etc.
I would respond to this by suggesting that you're missing the signs that he already has a fairly major shoulder injury that he is trying to pitch through: the workload concerns, the shutdown of '06, the complete disappearance of the splitter, the loss of velocity, and the lack of control.
workload concerns? He pitches all the time, those concerns havent manifested in him being unavailable since April of 07 (when he still pitched almost a full slate).
you think he's already injured, and theyre pitching him? Man, I thought you just believed an injury was immediately imminent, which at least was a defensible position.
Is this your gut instinct? Are you an expert on pitching mechanics? Did some reliable source within the organization tip you off somehow?
Look, if you guys are right, and Papelbon is seriously injured or ineffective within the next 12 months, I will shower you with praise for your clairvoyance. But I think you're nuts.
And again, I HOPE I'm nuts. I don't want him to fail. I'm a fan. Everything I've seen from him (with my completely untrained eye) has looked like he's hiding something, though.
http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfx.aspx?playerid=5975&position=P
The main issue is that he isn't throwing it for strikes. The horizontal movement on the fastball is much higher than it was the past two years, which is what we've all complained about with his motion coming across instead of being on top of the ball which created the rising illusion. In his last game against KC, his velocity was higher and he had more of that rise.
No? That chart looks like he's lost 2 or 3 mph or so since last year. There's no trend line, so it's hard to say for sure, but that's what I'm seeing.
Beyond this season it'll be a lot thinner too.
Kind nice to be this deep in talent though, remember when Abe Alvarez was a top prospect?
at the same time it's weird to see all these older (and old) fringy position players on the roster. All these older AAAA guys, and Kotay etc, not what you'd expect from such a deep system.
You're right about the position players in the farm system, though. The guys who are "ready" now are all AAAA types and journeymen. What promise among position players we've got in the system is concentrated in AA and below, so it'll be another season or two before that crop can start helping out at the big league level. I won't mind the talent being clustered like that if they can arrive and have anything like the impact of the Ellsbury/Pedroia/Youk/Lowrie group.
Maybe, but while that is true for all teams, it is less true for this team. Assume that Wakefield, Penny and Smoltz aren't on the 2010 team. That still leaves Matsuzaka, Buchholz, and Bowden in the ML squad, with Masterson and Tazawa in reserve and Fife/Price in the AA/Tazawa role. Its less depth, sure. But that's before they make a single move. Sign another FA pitcher, resign Smoltz, or Wakefield returning again puts Bowden as the #6 and Tazawa as the #7 SP. That seems like solid depth again. There is no Buchholz in reserve, but Tazawa has the chance to be ML average or so.
Penny and Smoltz, sure, but why would Wakefield not be on the team next year? There is no way he voluntarily retires, and very minimal risk for the Red Sox to re-up his contract ($4.5 mill?). And why would the Sox ditch him when he will be within 15 wins (at least) of being the all-time wins leader for the Sox? The FO may not care for PR with the fans at times, but Wake is not a malcontent at all, and doesn't get paid all that much money.
He may suck in the postseason, but he does a decent enough job helping the Sox get there.
Wakefield will return next year. But that just bolsters my point (and was addressed further on).
and even with the Red Sox' recent luck with prospects, isn't expecting Buchholz, Bowden, Masterson and Tazawa to all pan out, stay healthy etc a bit silly?
Anyways, I'm not saying there's no depth, I'm just saying it's not as crazy as some think it might be.
And why is everyone so down on Penny? I'd take my chances with him over Dice or Smoltz, are they stil trying to trade him?
Beckett and Lester will again form the front end of the rotation.
It is likely that Buchholz will join the rotation in 2010.
Wakefield, particularly with his contract, will almost certainly be back in 2010.
That means the competition for the remaining slot will come from Matsuzaka (who, if he's healthy, almost has to get a slot coming out of spring training), Masterson, Bowden, Smoltz or Penny (or some other yet-to-be-signed veteran pitcher).
I like the direction of the rotation's future, in part because I think it will be getting younger over the next two years. 2010 won't be a terribly dramatic set of decisions. It is 2011, coming off the free agency of Beckett, Lowell, Varitek, Ortiz, Lugo, and others, where a lot of money frees up after 2010, that will be the real interesting off-season to watch.
To me, the Papelbon issue is a bit like Pedro Martinez back in the day. After injury he was handled cautiously - for the rest of his time with the team - and though still a great pitcher he wasn't the same. A few years later (with the Mets) he suffered major injuries that led to such disinterest from teams that Pedro Freaking Martinez didn't sign until July.
Papelbon isn't guaranteed to follow the same path, and there are many valid reasons to believe that he's a completely different case. But I can't escape that feeling. I'm not on board with Fly on this one, but I think I understand where he's coming from.
Bard has been a pleasant surprise, in that he is taking increasingly important innings, performing well in those innings, and quietly getting worked into a position where you could see him pitching meaningful innings in a postseason situation. He also has made Saito expendable, which may help the Red Sox pick up some bench depth for the home stretch. Bard would be, at this time, the logical successor to Paplebon in the long-term, and the primary setup man/backup closer in 2010 and 2011.
Thank you for drumming the beat on a stereotype that hasn't been true since Theo took over.
Completely agree. The difference is really in disclosure. With Pedro we knew exactly what was going on with his arm. With Papelbon, we do know it's the shoulder, but it's a mystery as to how iffy it actually is. If he went "poof" tonight I wouldn't be overly surprised. But it is telling that the Sox seem to have no intention of extending him. It could be their philosophy that relievers/closers really aren't worth long- or even medium-term deals. But my guess is that they are really seeing if Bard can become the closer in two years.
Papelbon has always struck me as the kind of player who the Sox would let go in free agency, even without considering his shoulder.
I'd like to see them pick up an undervalued corner bat, like Nick Johnson. They *have* to trade one of their relievers at this point--it might as well be Saito or Delcarmen for a guy like Johnson.
C'mon in fairness, Pedro Martinez isn't "Pedro Freaking Martinez" anymore.
I don't really understand. Pedro had an injury and missed half a season. This was after 7 full years of being a SP. Afterwards many people thought shoulder blowout was due to happen, and it did 4 years later.
Papelbon has 4 years of relieving on his odometer. and he has never had a major injury. Yes, he was shut down for 1 month at the end of 2006, but 3 straight years of health and amazing effectiveness and continued velocity almost prove that the issues of 2006 were not anywhere near the seriousness of Pedro's injury. I dont understand the analogy, or what its point is for predicting Papelbon's future.
How do we know ANYTHING AT ALL is going on w/ Papelbon as regards to health? a few extra walks this year?
It's funny because it's true.
Much of it is a) we hear whispers about the shoulder every single year, and b) Papelbon changed his delivery and approach this year to, by his words, put less stress on his shoulder.
Like I said, there are lots of reasons to think Papelbon's case is different; thanks for listing a few.
I will point out, though, that a shoulder subluxation IS a major injury for a pitcher. Had they not shut him down instantly it could have been a career-ending injury. He was shut down only for one month because the season ended after one month. Had it happened in April he would've been out for months, if not the whole season, to build up the shoulder strength he lacked. They were lucky with the timing, allowing him to do this work through the offseason.
I still don't really understand this. Yes, I think they monitor his shoulder strength. But as far as usage, he hasn't pitch any fewer innings this year than other MLB closers. He has slightly more IP than Fuentes, Bell, Nathan, Rivera, Cordero and slightly less than Rodriguez, Aardsma, Broxton, and Gregg.
I know everyone dreams of a 95-inning, 1.80 ERA guy, but ...
Lowell's UZR for this season is -7.9, good for-15.7/150. So yes, he is that big of a liability. Lester's April struggles were almost entirely due to Lowell and Lugo playing the left side of the infield, and RHH pulling ground balls for hits all over the left side.
THT's RZR has him 4th from the bottom among qualifiers at 3B, ahead of only Mark Reynolds, Chipper Jones, and Michael Young.
Gross. I wonder who they could snag at either 1B or 3B that wouldn't break the bank in terms of prospects. Adam LaRoche?
Knowing Theo and Tito, I'd be surprised if the Red Sox decide they ought to make a trade. They really don't like cutting bait on major leaguers - generally, in the terms of those old manager-in-a-box things, both Theo and Tito are optimists. Or, better, Theo and Tito, once they've made a positive evaluation of a player, don't like to go back and revise midseason, except in pretty extreme situations. There are exceptions, surely, but I think the general tendency shows.
Not necessarily. This is not even half a season's worth of data. As bad as he was so far this year, he was that good last year. Maybe it's the hip, and maybe he's done as even an average fielding 3B, but you CANNOT show it with less than half a year of fielding stats. This is roughly akin drawing a conclusion about a guy's hitting after 125 PA.
Again, not necessarily disagreeing with your conclusion, and I don't mean to pick on Dan - this is just a pet peeve of mine when people prorate tiny samples of wildly uncertain defensive statistics and then draw conclusions based on it.
One related problem is that the Red Sox do need to make a conclusion about Jed Lowrie's hitting after maybe 100 PA split between the majors and the minors. They also need to make a conclusion about Mike Lowell's fielding on a sample smaller than that, in adjusted terms. You don't always get the numbers necessary to usefully inform a decision before a decision must be made.
EDIT: in Lugo's case, they appear to have made precisely such a decision. If the Red Sox thought Julio Lugo was a competent defensive player, he would have started more games, and Nick Green would quite likely be the guy on the chopping block. They made an evaluation, though, that Julio Lugo was no longer a competent defensive shortstop, and have treated him like a bad player ever since.
In Lugo's case, his defensive stats were, while again, in a tiny sample, AWWWWWFUL. Lowell's are just garden variety lousy.
I also agree with Primakov's description of Lowell's defense.
Since that is the majority of UZR we've got a real problem on our hands, and it's not as though his offense is otherworldly.
It seems to me that the Red Sox will be willing to make a big move if necessary. They dealt Nomar, they dealt Manny. You may be right that they're optimists overall, but they also see problems and fix them. The team is in a great position to upgrade. They have extra pitching, they can acquire either a 3b or a 1b to fix their problem at 3rd, they have prospects, and they are one of the few teams that can likely take on salary if need be. They're up against two of the top teams in baseball, and I would be surprised if the front office doesn't think they should try to make a substantial move. Then again, what do I know.
Youkilis, Ortiz, Pedroia, Bay, and Drew started all three games. The starters who each got one day of rest were Lowell, Lowrie, and Varitek. What's the problem?
Jed Lowrie hitting a home run after looking uselessly passive for two games was definitely a good thing. I'm hopeful he's gonna come back.
I don't know if Jed Lowrie can hit. He was consistently at a 20% K rate in the minors, and that's bumped up to a 25% rate in the majors. He had an above average BABIP in the minors, but should he be expected to maintain that? Lowrie's solid 340/400 line last year was a function of a .342 BABIP - give him a league average .300 and he's down to 310/345.
Lowrie's got an approach at the plate I'm skeptical of - he's got a take and rake approach, but he's not a power hitter, and he doesn't have good contact skills. He needs to get a lot of singles and doubles off his big swing in order to put up a competent line at short.
And I think we've already been around his defense - I think Lowrie won't embarrass himself at the position, but to be an asset, he needs to be an ok hitter, and I'm afraid he just isn't one.
By 'house money' I meant Kottaras starting game 2 out of the break, and both Kotsay and Green in the lineup for game 3, with neither of the latter 2 getting PH for.
Edit: BTW, Kotsay's been worth -0.3 WAR since joining the Red Sox (if you believe he's the great 1b that UZR says he is). Good think they're not running some schlub out there.
they say its a sore back, which hopefully is a code for the fenway flu, which is a code for a phantom injury used for other roster purposes. (such as showcasing/developing your young talent and resting your elderly talent, which is a code for Tim Wakefield)
edit: repoz just posted a thread
why would they give up after only 5 starts? they didnt with Penny . . .
Smoltz needs a few more starts to be evaluated. Can he contribute in the rotation? Is he better off as a long man out of the pen?
Penny needs to stay in the rotation in case he's involved in an eleventh hour trade. DL-ing him or otherwise skipping his next start would reduce his trade value, if not scupper it altogether.
Buchholz has been too good to stay down, and might also need to be showcased if he's potential trade bait in a deal for a serious bat.
And there you have it.
Plus, we finally have an important playing time issue on which to scrutinize Tito. LaRoche ought to be platooning with Lowell. If either LaRoche ends up riding the bench five days a week, or his job-sharing arrangement doesn't function as a platoon, we can all whine about it.
Career OPS pre All-Star: .773
Career OPS post Allstar: .901
Remarkably, this isn't the result of one monstrous second half, but appears to be the case basically every year.
Edit: Of course, MGL has good evidence showing that first half/second half splits aren't predictive.
You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.
<< Back to main