2007 vs. 2008


The numbers above the line are from BB-Ref; below, from THT.

So... walks are up, called strikes are down. That could mean:

a. He's getting the close calls less often.
b. He's missing the strike zone more often, in an obvious way.
c. His strikes are catching the heart of the plate more often.

(Some of these could be seen as saying the same thing, but I didn't intend it that way. The first is an umpiring thing; the second, his bad pitches are getting worse; the third, his good pitches are becoming too hitter-friendly.)

Given that his LD% is a little lower and his contact rate is the same, I reject c.

The jump in IF/FB rate (from "average" to "among the best") would help to explain his lower BABIP and HR rate, what with infield flies being among the easiest balls to convert to outs. How does this relate to his walk rate? One thought is that maybe he's getting more rise on his fastball, which on high pitches is potentially consistent with a and b. If that's true, I'd expect some of his BABIP improvement to remain.

I also noticed a SoSH thread from earlier this year in which they suggested in NPB Matsuzaka would simply challenge hitters with his fastball when he was behind in the count, but that MLB hitters can turn on a fastball a lot better than NPB hitters can, leading to his 2007 results. What we could be seeing here is an attempt to stay away from the "challenge" approach, which would lead to more walks, but also worse contact (due to fewer "fat" pitches).

Matsuzaka is misunderstood and maligned, and the team is winning 80% of his games. He has only given up more than 3 earned runs three times in 20 starts, but he has also not finished 6 innings in three consecutive starts all year... He is a frustrating enigma but nevertheless essential to the Red Sox's success this year.

The most remarkable thing about Matsuzaka's season is that no one, not even the MSM, think he is pitching at an All-Star level. He was left off the All-Star roster and no one (in my albeit limited knowledge) said anything in his defense. And yet his non-saber stats are really quite good. And he's 10th in the American League in VORP among pitchers.

Some players are "so underrated they're overrated", or vice versa. With Dice-K, he's so very nongood he's actually quite unbad.

I've come full circle on Matsuzaka. I had high hopes at the start of the season, figuring if he kept his component stats steady his ERA would drop a bit and he'd have a nice year - this followed by frustration at his ability to throw strikes and last six innings. Now I'm just enjoying the ride - 13-2, 2.90? Really? I know those aren't the numbers that really matter, but still. Just as I don't expect the ride to continue though, I'd anticipate his peripherals to start to look a little more like last year's soon enough....what a weird season.

Although when he's pitching game 3 of the division series against the Angels, and he's thrown 87 picthes and walked 5 guys through 4 innings, I'm sure I'll be pulling my hair out again.

With Dice-K, he's so very nongood he's actually quite unbad.

e e cummings is on line 2, demanding royalties.

Now I'm just enjoying the ride - 13-2, 2.90? Really? I know those aren't the numbers that really matter, but still.


Those are certainly the numbers that matter to him. The point of pitching isn't to see how few walks you can get. I would not discount the possibility that he knows what he's doing.

In just summer, when the world is walkluscious and the strikezone shrinks far and wheee!!!!!

The point of pitching isn't to see how few walks you can get.

Sure. But I think the point people are trying to make is that the batting average on balls put into play against Matsuzaka is incredibly low, to the point where the most likely explanation is that he's been very lucky. Knuckelballers don't even normally allow a batting average on balls in play as low as .250.

He shits me more often than not - but the tide is slowly turning...

I hate watching him pitch and still don't think he can keep it up. You can't walk that many people and get away with it unless you're a Nolan Ryan, and he's not.

the most likely explanation is that he's been very lucky.

You can't walk that many people and get away with it unless you're a Nolan Ryan, and he's not.


You are probably right. But it's also reasonable to think that a pitcher with good stuff and pretty good control who took the approach that he was not going to give good pitches to hit, even if it meant giving up a ton of walks, would have a low BABIP. I can't think of any comparable pitchers who are trying that approach.

He probably has been lucky. But it's at least possible that you are watching an intelligent, talented pitcher who has decided he can be most effective if he stops worrying about whether he drives Phil, Biff and Tito crazy.

Just looking quickly at some PITCHF/X game graphs (2007 vs. 2008) at brooksbaseball.net it seems to me that:

- Matsuzaka has a more consistent release point this year.
- He's putting more pitches up in the zone, and fewer in the heart of the zone.
- He's making greater use of his slider, and less use of his changeup.
- He's also making greater use of fastballs with movement.
- Because of that, his fastball location is far less consistent.

All of this was from looking at a handful of games this year vs. last year, and the 2007 graphs are much more limited than the 2008, so it's a relatively small sample size. And it's my own interpretation of what I saw; YMMV.

I don't expect a .249 BABIP to hold up. But it seems that it's not all luck, and that he will continue to frustrate y'all to more wins. Try to enjoy this.

You are probably right. But it's also reasonable to think that a pitcher with good stuff and pretty good control who took the approach that he was not going to give good pitches to hit, even if it meant giving up a ton of walks, would have a low BABIP. I can't think of any comparable pitchers who are trying that approach.

Nolan Ryan had a career opponents' BABIP of .269. Granted, Matsuzaka probably has somewhat better command than Ryan had for a lot of his career, but definitely does have as good stuff. Ryan spent most of his career pitching games scheduled for twilight in Anaheim or in the Astrodome in front of fast outfielders, and spent his career trying to throw unhittable pitches. I think even .275 in Fenway for a BABIP is unsustainable, even with the vastly improved defensive team they've put out there the last few years. I just have a hard time believing that any conventional pitcher could be tougher than Ryan for BABIP.

What would Dice-K's ERA be if he had a BABIP of .280? 3.3, 3.4? He might still be a hell of a pitcher even after reversion to mean.

What would Dice-K's ERA be if he had a BABIP of .280? 3.3, 3.4? He might still be a hell of a pitcher even after reversion to mean.

Probably a bit higher than that. His component ERA is something like 4.10. At a .280 BABIP he'd probably be a bit better than that. I take your point, though - the issue is between whether he's an above average pitcher or an ace.

It should be noted that he's not just giving up very few home runs, he's also only given up 20 doubles so far this year (42 last year). That's one every 21 ABs against, as opposed to 1 every 18 league wide. That's happening in Fenway also, which is obviously a notorious doubles park. This is all to say his iso-slugging against is .117 (.146 last year) and it's not just because of homers. He's doing something right, while still doing a lot of things wrong obviously. What I'd like to know, and maybe somebody can do this is: what if we normalized his singles rate?....ok, just tried to do some math, can I be right that Singles Per Balls in Play are .225? I guess that seems right, if so Daisuke should have given up 67 singles so far this year as opposed to his 55. His BA against would be .245, ballooning his OBP against .347 (again, somebody should check my math), and his slugging against at .349. That's still a pretty good season, a .696 OPS against.

That's still a pretty good season, a .696 OPS against.

Yes, although it's OBP heavy, which means, again, it's above average, but not superb.

Another 5 walk 0 run gem by Matsuzaka!

Yeah, he had 3 going into the 7th.

Watching Dice, I don't see a guy who's deciding to be extra careful. I see a guy who often cannot locate his pitches at all. He seems to bear down in tough situations, but I wouldn't want to count on that continuing.

I see a guy who often cannot locate his pitches at all. He seems to bear down in tough situations...

Remy & Orsillo were joking that Dice-K should pretend he's always pitching w/ runners on base. Maybe he shd also pretend that every hitter's got a 3-2 count.

If anybody wants a free ticket for tomorrow night's game, let me know.

Another 5 walk 2 run 5 inning Matsuzaka masterpiece! Embrace the unknown!

Houdini act

After he escaped that bases loaded jam beginning with the Mora K - that was it for me - I barely watched any more - he drains me of all baseball life - every single time!

Okay Dice, we get it. Go back to your crazy walk fests.

Unique is binary. Something is unique or it isn't. "Relatively unique" means nothing. You mean "unusual" or "original".

Sorry, pet peeve.

Anyway, my feeling is that Dice's current ERA is a fluke that could correct at any second. That's totally intuitive. If he pitches the same way next year as he has this year, you'll probably see that home run rate come back up and the ERA spike above last year's level. The man needs to make some adjustments.

Daisuke since this thread was posted:

49 IP, 39 H, 15 R, 25 BB, 51 K, 3 HR - 2.57 ERA, FIP in the 3.4 range.

He's still outperforming expected numbers, but it's actually his component numbers that have moved toward his run prevention numbers, not vice versa.

Unique is frequently used as a modifiable adjective these days in published work. Let it go, man.