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   1. catomi01 Posted: September 26, 2005 at 04:12 AM (#1642545)
no, its not.
   2. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: September 26, 2005 at 04:28 AM (#1642552)
Mike Cameron for Manny Ramirez. Is it going to happen?
   3. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: September 26, 2005 at 11:05 AM (#1642797)
No, but Beltran for Ramirez will, I think.

And you'll throw in Petit.
   4. karlmagnus Posted: September 26, 2005 at 03:16 PM (#1643041)
Damon's currently much less than 100% fit, and is more than 5 years younger than Bernie. A 4 year contract at $40mm is probably a reasonable risk, though I'd rather 3/$32mm. No longer than 4 though, and no more than $40mm. He's a lovely player to watch and deserves a modest "face of the franchise" premium.

Trading Manny would be a disaster. He's VERY reliable, is slowing only slightly, is more or less a certain HOFer, worth $15mm/year although not 20 and has become much loved by fans. Beltran is younger, but nowhere near as good, and you'd be on the hook for much longer (6 years vs. 3?) You lose badly by trading players the fans have come to identify with; it's still unclear whether trading Nomar was sensible in the long run, and trading Pedro was certainly a bad deal in the short run. Not only would I keep Manny now, but I would expect to make an effort to resign him in '08, albiet for no more than 3 years at $10mm a year.
   5. Mister High Standards Posted: September 26, 2005 at 04:10 PM (#1643172)
I completely agree with Karlmangus about Manny... and I think about Damon.
   6. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: September 26, 2005 at 04:25 PM (#1643217)
trading Pedro was certainly a bad deal in the short run

Nitpicking, but they didn't trade Pedro.

And I really don't think they'll try to resign Manny in '08.
   7. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: September 26, 2005 at 04:48 PM (#1643268)
I'm not so sure on Manny. I am certain the Red Sox will make a big attempt to trade him, but this'll be the third time, and they haven't yet found a deal they like. My guess is the Sox are looking for quite a good haul of money and prospects to make it work.

On Damon, I think the big issues are somewhat unknowable from our perspective. As Darren says, Damon might be getting seriously run down by injuries, and his defense has alreadty declined to ~average. Whether he's worth his next contract will depend a lot on the degree to which Damon can maintain his speed into his mid-30s, which is a question I don't really know the answer to.
   8. Bob Loblaw Posted: September 26, 2005 at 06:59 PM (#1643567)
Jolin, I don't think that's nitpicking. It's just like karlmagnus to suggest that it was entirely because of the Red Sox that Pedro is no longer pitching for the team.

Pedro says he would still be with the Red Sox if only they had shown him some more love, but as much as I love him, he's perfectly capable of lying through his teeth to make himself look better.

Could the Red Sox have kept Pedro with a deal that made sense for the team? It's certainly possible, but none of us know, so I can only assign them partial blame for him not being around.

With that said, I do agree with km (possibly a first) that they shouldn't trade Manny. At this point, his contract's just not that bad considering what he provides and what they'd need to get to replace him.
   9. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: September 26, 2005 at 07:13 PM (#1643603)
Manny's 10-5 kicks in this year, right? Not saying he would turn down a trade to NYC, but something that might be a factor
   10. Joel W Posted: September 26, 2005 at 07:52 PM (#1643677)
If they could trade Manny for Beltran, it would provide them more flexibility in that a corner outfielder is an easier spot on the field to fill than LF. Plus, the marginal difference between the Beltran contract and Damon wouldn't be all that much at this point, especially in the next few years. Beltran is clearly coming off an off year, but I have no reason to think he won't be the Carlos Beltran of the first few years of his career, with maybe power more in line w/ what he had in 2004.

Giles, Matsui( is he really a free-agent?), or maybe a trade for Dunn?

I'm not saying it's necessarily the right deal, but it seems like it could make sense given the right conditions and the market for Johnny.
   11. Joel W Posted: September 26, 2005 at 08:31 PM (#1643750)
I'm not even sure the claims that Manny is more valuable than Beltran are true. Tango puts their adjusted fielding talents at a difference of 24 runs. I'm willing to think that's about right.

Now for the hitting, in what was an apparent off year for Beltran, he has put up around 30 runs VORP, and I think a reasonable expectation for him going into the future is about 40 runs of VORP. Manny I think we could expect about 65 runs of VORP going into the future (maybe a bit more, but that will be his last two years, and he'll be 34 next year).

It's also possible that Beltran is better suited for Fenway than Manny (being a switch hitter and all). One of Manny's strength is power to all parts of the park, which seem particularly dampened w/ Fenway's deep right field. When Manny hits the ball hard to left, it's either way out, which a short wall doesn't help, or it's often made into a single by the short wall. Beltran however could probably reap a bit more advantage from the wall, and would be pulling the ball to Fenway's right field most of the time, meaning that the deep reight field wouldn't hurt him as much. Call it the Bill Mueller effect. My guess is the front office has the hit charts, and knows if my conjecture is true.

Moreover, what about the possibility of trading manny for beltran, and resigning damon? You could put Damon in left, shift beltran a bit right of center, thus allowing the sox to minimize Johnny's arm effect while still utilizing his range. That or Beltran could go to right and bulk up a bit, still cover a lot of ground out there, and Trot could move to left, where he doesn't have to run as much and put such a strain on his back.

Didn't I read somewhere recently (maybe Studes on HardballTimes) that having the "two-centerfielder" model for an outfield led to more penants than we would have expected, or something like that?
   12. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: September 26, 2005 at 09:26 PM (#1643903)
The Mets aren't trading Beltran. Management had said they won't and Beltran has said he wants to prove he can play in New York.
   13. Joel W Posted: September 26, 2005 at 09:34 PM (#1643920)
And we're supposed to take them at their word?
   14. Darren Posted: September 26, 2005 at 09:39 PM (#1643934)
When reading km's post, it's important to remember that Manny and Damon were signed by Duquette, thus making them flawless in every way. Seriously, km, the Red Sox are going to re-sign Manny after 08? You have got to be kidding.

I'm not even sure the claims that Manny is more valuable than Beltran are true.

I'm sure that they are not, especially if you remember to factor in baserunning and hair. The value of their contracts might be quite similar, though.

You could put Damon in left, shift beltran a bit right of center, thus allowing the sox to minimize Johnny's arm effect while still utilizing his range.

What would you pay him? As a LF, Damon's average to below average on offense, and, assuming he's an average CF, he's 6 or 7 runs above average on D, and a couple on the bases. Is that a $10 mil/year player?

My hope is that the Sox manage to pry Dunn lose and then deal Manny for Cameron + prospects. They save money in both LF and CF and lose little, if any, production. They can then use that money to get A REAL FREAKING BULLPEN!
   15. Joel W Posted: September 26, 2005 at 09:46 PM (#1643947)
We'd probably lose Annibal and Lester in that deal, who could be part of A REAL FREAKING BULLPEN next year, if we try to get Dunn, right?
   16. Fat Al Posted: September 26, 2005 at 09:47 PM (#1643950)
And we're supposed to take them at their word?

No, but why would they want to trade Beltran for Manny? Manny is an awesome hitter (and by far my favorite Red Sox), but they take his decline years, bad defense and questionable attitude. In exchange they give up relative youth, a quality defender, speed and the rest of the Beltran package. Beltran had a lousy year, and was over-hyped as a FA after last year's stretch run and playoffs, but he's a good bet for a strong rebound and career, and I would hope the Mets have learned their lesson about picking up expensive mid-30s sluggers.
   17. Joel W Posted: September 26, 2005 at 09:55 PM (#1643961)
Darren, if you're going to adjust his offense for position, shouldn't you also adjust his defense? In left, wouldn't he be worth like 15 runs or something like that? I guess I was also wondering if there would be a possible added benefit of having two center-field quality defenders in the outfield, since I thought that there might be.
   18. Golfing Great Mitch Cumstein Posted: September 26, 2005 at 10:42 PM (#1644029)
Now for the hitting, in what was an apparent off year for Beltran, he has put up around 30 runs VORP,

.273/.337/424 is 30 runs VORP? He is below Dave Roberts and tied with Brad Wilkerson in OPS, both of whom have better OBP's.
   19. Darren Posted: September 26, 2005 at 11:10 PM (#1644081)
In left, wouldn't he be worth like 15 runs or something like that?

I might be remembering this wrong, but I thought MGL and Tango said it was 6 runs difference between spots on the defensive spectrum. I added a couple to give him the benefit of the doubt. You might reasonably adjust that number downward actually, because he's getting less chances in general as a LF, and Fenway further reduces them. You'd probably be better off putting one of them in RF.
   20. karlmagnus Posted: September 26, 2005 at 11:26 PM (#1644118)
Beltran is a thoroughly mediocre player, who had a flukishly good 2004 and got a fancy contract; he's a hitting Mike Hampton. Using sabermetrics to prove Beltran was better than Manny just reinforces my view that most (though not all) sabermetric measures are utter rubbish, resting as they do on assumptioons plucked out of this air or plainly untrue (e.g. 50-50 split for WS, and the whole concept of DERA.)

Unfortunately, Theo may or may not be smarter than the Mets, but he's WAY more arrogant.
   21. karlmagnus Posted: September 26, 2005 at 11:27 PM (#1644122)
"this air" should read "thin air." Sorry
   22. Darren Posted: September 26, 2005 at 11:47 PM (#1644185)
Using sabermetrics to prove Beltran was better than Manny just reinforces my view that most (though not all) sabermetric measures are utter rubbish, resting as they do on assumptioons plucked out of this air or plainly untrue (e.g. 50-50 split for WS, and the whole concept of DERA.)

Is it better to just rest on the assumption that Manny is better because he has more HR and RBI?
   23. Rough Carrigan Posted: September 27, 2005 at 01:58 AM (#1644536)
The only way I could start to be convinced that it's worthwhile to sign Damon to a 4 year $40 million would be if you could show that his injured shoulder has no increased likelihood of being hurt again in the future. His throwing arm went from just lousy at the start of the year to a heretofor unexplored category of having Benjie Molina going first to third standing up on hits right at him.

Lousy throwing is one thing, but there is a point at which it becomes simply unacceptable and that point is in Johnny's rear view mirro.
   24. Joel W Posted: September 27, 2005 at 04:41 AM (#1645155)
Carlos Beltran had a slugging percentage of .514 as a 24-year-old and until this injury-riddled season had never had one below .500 since that season.

His OBP since that season has been about .365-.370 (I'm just eyeballing) before this injury riddled season.

His career stolen base percentage is around 90%, and I'm supposed to believe that this year is indicative of his talent more than the rest of his career?

Moreover, he plays centerfield, pretty well too, whereas manny plays crappy D in the outfield....

Also, Karl, let me use your rhetorical stragety:

Using molecular biology to try to prove evolutionary theory just reinforces my belief that evolutionary theory is false, resting on theories just plucked out of thin air like natural selection.
   25. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: September 27, 2005 at 10:40 AM (#1645318)
Carlos Beltran, 2001-2005

305/360/515, age 24
275/345/500, age 25
305/390/520, age 26
265/365/550, age 27
270/330/420, age 28

Beltran is absolutely anything but a one-year wonder. Beltran was better in 2003 than he was in 2004.

Carlos is a well above average CF and one of the handful of best baserunners in the game.

I haven't looked in depth at the possibility of a trade, and as I said above, I basically expect the Red Sox would be looking mainly to rip off the Mets, and would be willing to test the deal and back off.

But the idea that Beltran is in any way "mediocre" or a "one-year wonder" or a piece of evidence against sabermetrics, well, jeez, I can't see any backing for it.
   26. Rafael Bellylard: Built like a Panda. Posted: September 27, 2005 at 11:53 AM (#1645329)
Maybe it's a radical idea, but...

1) Let Ortiz play first.
2) Move Manny to DH.
3) Sign Matsui to play LF.
4) Platoon hitter/defensive specialist in CF via trade/rookie and let them bat low in the order.

I like Damon a lot, but what I've seen the last two months or so is not a player I'd like to risk a 4 yr contract on.
   27. chris p Posted: September 27, 2005 at 12:41 PM (#1645339)
a piece of evidence against sabermetrics, well, jeez, I can't see any backing for it.

well he sorta is ... in that he was a toolsy outfielder with no plate discipline who turned out alright. that's not what karlmagnus had in mind, though.

276/317/466, age 21
293/337/454, age 22 (first full year)
247/309/366, age 23
   28. RobertMachemer Posted: September 27, 2005 at 03:47 PM (#1645684)
most... sabermetric measures are utter rubbish, resting as they do on assumptioons plucked out of this air or plainly untrue (e.g.... the whole concept of DERA.)

Given that dERA does not rest on assumptions plucked out of thin air and is not plainly untrue, I'd say it's more accurate to say your criticism of it is utter rubbish.

McCracken started with the assumption that hits on balls in play WOULD be a matter of skill and found, to his surprise, that if it is under the pitcher's control, then that the signal of that control is swallowed up by the surrounding noise. I don't see what there is about this to conclude that it's plainly untrue unless you're deliberately misunderstanding McCracken to be saying that "pitchers don't have control over whether balls in play are turned into hits." He didn't say that. He said that they may, but that it's swallowed up amid the noise of park- and defensive-adjustments.

And since this was a surprise to him (and to most of us), I don't see how one can pretend he started with "assumptioons plucked out of this air." And since there's not much room to criticize the conclusion without going into the data yourself and criticizing his assessment that the correlation is low, I don't see how you can call it "plainly untrue" (unless you're playing Joe Morgan to McCraken's playing noted author Billy Beane).
   29. Toby Posted: September 27, 2005 at 04:32 PM (#1645803)
Nothing against Beltran personally, but I would be wary of any guy who was signicantly worse under full steroids testing (2005) than under partial steroids testing (2004) than under no steroids testing (2003 and before).

See also Millar, K.; Lowell, M.; Rodgriguez, I.; et al.
   30. Josh Posted: September 28, 2005 at 03:31 PM (#1648462)
I never understood the point of debating with someone who is clearly in the minority and may be acting like a troll (in this case, resorting to attacking the name of the argument's genus, instead of attacking the argument).

As Mikael already pointed out the relevant stats for Beltran, you could use sabermetrics to introduce park effects into the equation and discount Beltran’s stats -- playing in KC in the early aughts or late ‘90s may have meant playing the AL’s version of Coors field. But, to suggest that “sabermetrics” somehow created an inflated image of Beltran -- rather than his stats and, dear lord, his scouting reports -- is simply making up not only a straw man, but an entire straw village.
   31. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: September 28, 2005 at 03:53 PM (#1648512)
I'm not sure I'd like to see Damon here in four years. I can see a Bernie type disaster in 4 years.

If he won't accept anything less... bye. Thanks for the memories, but c'mon, we already signed Tek to 4 years, i hope Theo doesn't do anything along those lines again.

I'd LOVE to see Brian Giles play for us, but he's a corner OF, and a LHB... yeah. We'd need a CF if we sign Giles instead of Damon. And there's the whole Manny thing, and the need of a RHB....

Arrgh. Me confused.
   32. Joel W Posted: September 28, 2005 at 03:59 PM (#1648528)
Toby, hasn't Beltran looked bigger this year than he used to?

Frankly, I chalk it up to trying to play through injuries. Look at his numbers surrounding the Did Not Play games in his game log, it's pretty clear that he should have just let himself heal. I'd be wary of the Red Sox being good about telling him to sit...

I understand your point, and I think it's a worthy causal explanation, I just see other better ones given what we know.
   33. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: September 28, 2005 at 04:06 PM (#1648539)
1) Let Ortiz play first.
2) Move Manny to DH.
3) Sign Matsui to play LF.
4) Platoon hitter/defensive specialist in CF via trade/rookie and let them bat low in the order.


If you want to let Papi play 1B, fine, we need a defensive 1B sub that can pretty much play a couple of innings every day. And run decently.

KEVIN YOUKILIS!

Oh wait he's needed at 3B

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