I'm surpised you're more comfortable with Pedroia than Youkilis. I'm inclined to agree that it's worth a shot for both of them, but I'm not sure I'm seeing the overall impact of the moves.
You move a ROY/MVP/Generally Fairly Awesome 2B to SS so you can sign Placido Polanco?

And what do you do with Lowell? What's his trade value as a DH?

I think I like the idea of these moves more than I'll like the final results.

On the other hand, I'd still like to see Pedroia at short, just in the hope that we can finally fill that hole...

I worry about Youkilis...who isn’t all that great at first base anyway.

What are you basing this on? The numbers I've seen rate him well and watching him I certainly don't see any flaws in his game defensively at first. I don't think he's great at third but I don't think he's bad either.

Given that Youk has bounced back and forth between the two positions the last couple of years I'm not particularly worried about his ability to adapt to third. I think even if he isn't very good he would be a substantial upgrade over the current version of Mike Lowell defensively.

I am more worried about Pedroia's ability make the move than Youkilis, who has played some third base every season (including in 2009). I still don't think the options at second base are attractive enough to make such a move, and I think this is largely for negotiating leverage.

A near-permanent shift of Youkilis to 3rd is more than reasonable for 2010. He's demonstrated acceptable ability the last several years. Whether or not that's a solution beyond 2010 or 2011 is relatively moot--Theo won't know which options exist at that time until we get there. The notion he'd move doesn't add flexibility--the Sox already have it.

Moving Pedroia is very enticing for all the reasons mentioned. The Runs Saved that will be sacrificed (5 to 10 versus average) are likely on the order of the difference in replacement levels at the positions. I don't have the exact numbers, but it's something like this: a +5 2B is equal in defensive value to a -5 SS. If Pedroia shifts and goes from +10 to 0, the defensive change is a wash. Since his bat is automatically worth more at SS than 2B, the move is a positive regardless of how either SS or 2B are filled in 2010 around Pedroia. Also, here's another reason to like a move: 2B is a more dangerous position and, as well as he fields, his bat is the greater asset. All other things ignored for a moment, I'd rather have the better MI bat (and long-term investment) at SS than at 2B.

Does Dustin have enough arm to make that throw deep in the hole? He's so shrimpy as well, that can't help his range left or right or over his head. I'm not sure he's even a -5 SS. he might be -10, or -15 at SS.

BTW, Wagner signed with the Braves. We get the 20th pick, plus a suplimental pick, in case you all didn't know.

I wonder if the Red Sox see all-bat, bad-defense players as the new market inefficiency...

In other words, that defense is now overvalued by the market, and that they're willing to take defensive hits so they can find a starting 9 that can mash with the 2003 and 2004 teams. If so, it's an interesting tact to take.

Obviously this potential plan being very publicly announced leads us to believe that the Sox are simply enhancing their bargaining position: instead of needing a SS, they are saying they need either a SS or a 2B. This means more supply for the same demand of 1 lineup spot. Good move as long as either its believable for free agents or other teams, or they are serious and willing to go through with it.

I don't think that Pedroia to SS and Youkilis to 3B would be much worse defensively than Lugo and Lowell were in 2009. Youkilis would probably be an upgrade on Lowell's defense. Pedroia I don't know. I remember watching him play SS in the minors and thinking his arm just barely had enough to get it done. He'll probably look pretty bad out there, but I think he'll make most of the plays he needs to.

My concern for Pedroia at SS is the arm. Is it good enough? Otherwise I think it'd be fine. I suspect that the idea is a backup plan, though, in case they really don't have anyone useful to put at short and Lowrie remains terrible.

Poor copy quote of the day, from the headline on the sports page of today's Boston.com:

We know Dustin Pedroia would do fine at shortstop, but is that a good long-term plan?

If he'd do fine at shortstop, it's a good long-term plan. Shortstops are always harder to find that second basemen.

Didn't this, or some other article on it, state that in limited exposure Francona was unimpressed by Pedroia's lateral movement at SS? As a Yanks fan, I'm intrigued by the Sox doing something that might screw Pedroia up. That is, while I see the arguments in favor of the move, there seems to be some downside, like ruining a very good thing (a top 3 AL second baseman) in favor of a mediocre thing (assuming Francona's impressions are correct).

I found it interesting that today Perrotto is suggesting the Red Sox may deal Papelbon this off-season. I'm too lazy to find the threads, but at the end of the year, I brought this up as an idea many times. He even mentions the Phillies as a possible suitor, though of course it's unclear what they'd have to offer we'd be interested in... And that the Red Sox would want a front-line bat or starter in return (I doubt they'd get either).

But if there's any grain of truth in this report--if it's based on actual talking to Boston FO people--then this pleases me greatly, as I was very concerned that Papelbon was deemed "untouchable," when really he's perhaps their best "sell high" candidate to some team that deems itself in desperate need of a "proven closer."

If you doubt they'd get a front-line bat or starter in return, why get excited that they would be willing to trade him?

I don't think that Pedroia to SS and Youkilis to 3B would be much worse defensively than Lugo and Lowell were in 2009.

Wow, you're really setting the bar high, Emhawk.

MLBTradeRumors says that the Braves have signed Wagner. That should mitigate any worries about losing a pick to sign Scutaro.

Nasty, I should have been clearer: as a 1-for-1 deal, there's no way Papelbon alone gets you a front-line bat or a decent starter. I can't recall the last trade involving just a closer where that happened.

But Papelbon as part of a larger trade/package might get you a front-line bat/starter. I don't see the Blue Jays being interested because of the price tag, but as part of a larger package, a guy like Papelbon might help you get a nice, shiny pony.

I doubt there's a lot of teams out there dumb enough to take Papelbon and his salary as a major part of a larger trade, but I'd sure as heck give it a try, and it's possible that the Red Sox are playing up the 2 years of cost control + the near-certainty that Papelbon in 2 years would net you 2 draft picks if you let him walk as "plusses" for teams not wanting to lay out a 3- or 4-year deal to an older FA closer.

But in a larger sense, I'm excited about their willingness--if it is true--to trade Papelbon, because 2009 made me think a collapse/injury is certainly possible before he gets to his FA years. He's not going to be the Rivera of the Red Sox, and that's OK by me...

I laughed when this was brought up in August. I'm not laughing as much now, since Ramirez or Rollins look like they have no chance of coming this way. I think it's worth a shot now, assuming second base can be filled.

Rollins is an interesting case... The Phillies are unlikely to part with him, but he would be worth pursuing, and Papelbon could be part of the mix we'd offer (Lowrie would have to go as well, I'd imagine, and then a bunch of other pieces).

The problem with Rollins in Philly is simply that he's utterly miscast as a leadoff guy. If he batted 7th or 8th (or 9th!) in the Red Sox lineup, his OBP is tolerable because he does tend to hit for decent average/power and is a pretty decent SS. Now... would Rollins pout and mope about not being a leadoff guy? Perhaps... and if that was the sense you got, then I'd stay far the hell away.

Artie Ziff Posted:
I laughed

Technology never ceases to amaze.

because 2009 made me think a collapse/injury is certainly possible before he gets to his FA years

42/7 K/BB, 1 HR over his final 33 innings. Sure, it's certainly possible... because he's a PITCHER. And if they want to trade him and can get value back, fine. But he;s fine.

The Phillies are not trading Rollins, let's not get silly here.

That line from James above is enough for me to think these are both bad ideas.

If the best reasons are Pedroia - played SS in the minors reasonably well and Youkilis - hasn't been terrible at third in the majors, I still don't see a reason to think either qualify as good possible exceptions to one of James's most rock solid axioms.

The Phillies are unlikely to part with him

No kidding. I don't think they'd do Rollins for Pedroia straight up, let alone for Papelbon and spare parts.

Well with Pedroia moving to SS, the Sox need a 2B. If the Phillies want Papelbon, do they have a 2B they could send back?

I don't see any reason to doubt Youkilis's ability to play 3rd. As has been pointed out, he moved to 1st to open a spot for Lowell, and he's continued to play 3rd part-time without any apparent problems. At some point in the future he might have to shift back over, but I wouldn't worry about that now.

I think Pedroia also moved over for Hanley, but that was a lot earlier in their careers, and presumably they moved the one they didn't think would stick at SS anyway. Still, it seems like it is worth investigating. Pedroia doesn't seem like the type to let struggles in the field affect his performance at the plate (he doesn't get down on himself), so I don't think you're going to ruin him. The downside is if you're still not sure going into the season, and you get stuck with two 2B and no SS.

Obviously this potential plan being very publicly announced leads us to believe that the Sox are simply enhancing their bargaining position: instead of needing a SS, they are saying they need either a SS or a 2B.

Cafardo has a note up on the Extra Bases blog saying that Pedroia moving to SS would be a last resort, if they find no solution for SS.

This oughtta be cute.

Think you HAVE to play Peds at ss now. Can't just suggest it and expect a supercompetitor like Peds not to play at least 10-15 years worth to get it out of his system. And of course, why not a few games ar 2nd just for old times sake. Like say..20

NOT 19

20

ya know, Ped's got the reflexes, know how and grittiness to make a good catcher.

Pedro has gotten quite a bit stockier since his Sun Devil days but during his stint on Team USA as a collegian he made quite a few dazzling stops while playing SS. Again, I don't know how his current, stronger build has affected his range but coming out of college I think Pedro could have played a MLB SS.

And I'm not sure if Kevin Youkilis playing 3b even counts as a rightward shift on the spectrum given that it is his native position and he never really stopped playing it, even if he did play mostly at 1b for a few years

Extra Bases blog saying that Pedroia moving to SS would be a last resort, if they find no solution for SS.

Good.

And one of the 2B options, Polanco, is no longer available.

Polanco was probably my favorite potential 2B option.

My other random idea is to get Kaz Matsui or Keppinger from Houston.

Scutaro is widely seen as the "only" option for Boston at SS but I don't consider him an option at all. He's a utility player in his mid-30's who had a career year. Outlier (I'm sure you guys have already had this debate). I'd sooner hand the job to Iglesias a year (or more) early and take a .650 OPS from the position as a given.

I'm concerned about the idea of moving Pedroia to SS, though, even aside from the chance that he just totally blows it. One big problem with it that I haven't seen mentioned is that you effectively shut down Lowrie's development. Unless you like him as a third baseman, which I don't really, or unless he can play 2B. I guess the idea is that assuming Petunia can hack it in the hole, you just shift your vortex of suck from SS to 2B where it's easier to find replacement talent. But Lowrie is the big question in MI, so if he's not at least a potential answer at 2B it just get messier and messier. Plus Iglesias is the Second Coming defensively so Petunia goes back to 2B after one season? Two? Or the hype machine kicks up and Iglesias becomes yet another Sox MI prospect to get traded? I dunno. The more you think about the Petunia move, I think the less sense it makes, and I don't care one whit what HE thinks about it.

OK, since we've got this position buttoned up now, what about 3b? Is Lowrie going to play there? Any chance at all that we see Natale in the bigs? At 1b?

Scutaro is widely seen as the "only" option for Boston at SS but I don't consider him an option at all.

Theo apparently had a different take on it.

;-}

The argument for Marco Scutaro's improvement being real is provided by fangraphs: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/free-agent-marco-scutaro

He may be a guy who finally understood what his strengths and weaknesses were. Basically his strength is making contact and not much else, so he now doesn't swing unless he needs to. I fully expect regression but hopefully to something decent.

He's a 34-year old backup. I'll just hold my breath waiting to be proven wrong in my belief that he's not nearly worth this contract.

The argument for Marco Scutaro's improvement being real is provided by fangraphs: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/free-agent-marco-scutaro

He may be a guy who finally understood what his strengths and weaknesses were. Basically his strength is making contact and not much else, so he now doesn't swing unless he needs to. I fully expect regression but hopefully to something decent.

Wait, are JoelW and Crispix Attacks the same person?

Wait, are JoelW and Crispix Attacks the same person?

I too want to know the answer to this pressing question. If not, they think remarkably (even disturbingly) alike.

This came up in the game thread last night. How would the Sox look if they had moved Pedroia and picked up Polanco, Lopez, or Hudson? It's hard to see that they'd have been much better off. It was probably wise not to go shifting players around.

I think it's interesting, looking over this old discussion, that the Red Sox did commit to moving Youkilis back to 3B, and committed to it for three years.

I agree with Darren that the Sox have had perfectly acceptable SS play the last two seasons, good enough that they shouldn't have taken the risk with Pedroia. The more difficult question, I think, is whether the club make a mistake way back when.

In 2006, the Red Sox shifted Pedroia from SS to 2B, even though they had no long-term plans at shortstop. In 2007, they gave Pedroia the 2B job and signed Julio Lugo for $36M. These are the numbers for Red Sox shortstops before the Scutaro acquisition:

2007: 231/288/345 (mostly Lugo)
2008: 268/358/360 (Lugo, Lowrie, and Cora)
2009: 235/297/358 (Green, Lugo, and Sea Bass Gonzalez)

That's two years of below replacement level production. Obviously it's unknowable to what degree Pedroia could have handled the position, and we should take the fact that the Sox didn't ever try him at SS in the majors as evidence he wouldn't have been able to handle the position. But the combination of Pedroia's excellent defense at 2B and the utter crapulence of Red Sox shortstops 2007-2009 does open up the question.

On the other hand, what really could the Sox have done better? In 2007, they won the World Series. In 2008, by the time they made the playoffs, Lowrie was doing a fine job at short, and in 2009 they got Sea Bass at basically no cost and he performed well enough down the stretch. 2007-2009 was a pretty damn good time for the Boston Red Sox, even with all the terrible shortstops they ran out during the regular season.

I have a hard time believe Pedroia would be anywhere as good a shortstop as he is a second baseman. First, his arm does not seem especially strong so I thinkt here is a loss there. The other thing is that Pedroia has an interesting style at second base. He seems to go to the ground a LOT to make plays. I don't think it's an issue of being flashy or anything, it's just the easiest way for him to make the plays. That's not a bad thing at second base where the short throw means he has the time to make that play but I think as a shortstop he would not be able to do that and would be less effective particularly on short hop type plays.

Yes, I think that if you take it back to 06 (though he had been playing both in the minors), there's certainly more to talk about there. That was bad shortstopping for a couple years. There were probably some other good 2B options then (maybe even Polanco and O-Hud? as well), so they probably would make the team better than Lugo did.




Another thing to consider was that when Pedroia came up, there was reportedly some concern about his conditioning and he certainly didn't seem to have anywhere near the speed he has now. Maybe that Pedroia couldn't have handled SS?

Nice bump, MCoA. I skimmed the first 20 posts of this thread is if they were written this week which makes posts like this seem particularly crazy:

I found it interesting that today Perrotto is suggesting the Red Sox may deal Papelbon this off-season.

MLBTradeRumors says that the Braves have signed Wagner. That should mitigate any worries about losing a pick to sign Scutaro.

Speaking of SS, it would be depressing to look up the threads with all the high hopes for Lowrie for this season.

Lowrie has definitely proven that you just can't have high hopes for him because he will always get injured. However, he now shown himself to be a pretty valuable shortstop when he plays. I don't know exactly how you utilize that knowledge when building a team, but he's certainly an asset if you accept what he can do (be an average ML shortstop) rather than look at what he can't do (play 150 games per year). Obviously the answer can't be "pair him w/ another injury prone shortstop".

However, he now shown himself to be a pretty valuable shortstop when he plays

I don't see how he has shown that this year? He hasn't hit much (.281/.317/.387) and his defense has been awful. You can argue he is better than that but I don't think he's shown anything positive in 2011.

Shortstop remains a tough position for this team. Iglesias just isn't ready yet and Lowrie can't stay healthy. Without knowing quite what the off-season will bring I wouldn't hate coming back with Scutaro/Lowrie again. Scutaro is fungible enough that if Lowrie is getting the job done or Iglesias steps his game up there is no harm in making him your backup and Lowrie's versatility makes him a useful reserve if he is what we've seen in 2011.

Iglesias is awfully young but the only number of his that impresses me is his bonus. And in his brief trip to the bigs, he seemed to show very poor instincts. I would not expect anything out of him for the next couple years. On a similar note, I cannot figure out what all the hype around Middlebrooks is about. There must be half a dozen Red Sox prospects who have more promising futures than his.

Damn you people for bumping an old thread. I thought this was news!

Well, I'd argue that he is somewhat better than that, given he's played other seasons of baseball. He's a career .260/.330/.410 hitter (95 wRC+). That's quite valuable for even a defensively challenged shortstop.

Iglesias is a spectacular defender, no doubt about it. He is already a gold-glove caliber SS.

His hitting though, is awful. He has no power and he can't control the strikezone. His number are so bad, I'm not sure he'll ever hit enough to be a regular in the bigs.

Speaking of prospects who can't hit, I just noticed today that after the Sox released Jason Place, the Yankees, of all teams, picked him up. and he rewarded them by stinking it up even more than he did for the Red Sox. This is his line as a 23 year old, split about evenly between high- and 2-A:

.178/.210/.317

Wow. You have to have some kind of tools for a team to be that patient with you. What's weird is he was a much better hitter 2 years ago at the same levels.

Well, time to throw in the towel.

His hitting though, is awful. He has no power and he can't control the strikezone. His number are so bad, I'm not sure he'll ever hit enough to be a regular in the bigs.

When Iglesias signed, some scouts or execs told Buster Olney that he was a possible 15 HR SS. Crazy talk then, even crazier now.

On a similar note, I cannot figure out what all the hype around Middlebrooks is about. There must be half a dozen Red Sox prospects who have more promising futures than his.

Me either-his K-BB ratio continues to be horrible in AAA (12-3), and he won't ever be useful to any ML team unless he improves on that, no matter how many ml XBH he gets (yes Reddick pulled it off, but most of the time they don't). I'd certainly put Bogaerts, Coyle, and Lavarnway above him (and Iglesias downgraded too) for starters. Sox Prospects has AA teammate Alex Hassan, only 6 months older and in full command of his strike zone, all the way down at 26, which is preposterous.

Middlebrooks plays a position of relative scarcity (though the Sox have a good one), is a former high draft pick and is close to being as MLB-ready as he gets. I agree with the concerns but other than Middlebrooks and Lavarnway (who is man without position right now) the Sox don't really have much in the neighborhood of being ready for prime time. Kalish has had a lost year, Hassan is fighting the bias against low draft picks and...that's it off the top of my head. The only other position player above Single A in the Sox Prospects Top 20 is Oscar Tejeda and he's got a sub-.300 OBP at Portland.

I really want to see Middlebrooks be a success but I can't imagine he can do it. Those K/BB numbers are awful and he'll get exposed pretty badly. Compared to him Reddick is Eddie Yost.