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   1. RP Posted: August 18, 2005 at 01:09 PM (#1554751)
I bring something.

The Krispy Kremes?
   2. Jose Clutch (Replacement Level Poster) Posted: August 18, 2005 at 01:09 PM (#1554755)
I have to say I'm a huge John Olerud fan, and anything that'd give John more playing time is fine by me.

Because anyone honest knows Roberto ain't getting any more.
   3. Smiling Joe Hesketh Posted: August 18, 2005 at 01:11 PM (#1554756)
That quote from Millar is a week or so old by now. Theo and Francona put a full Tom Brady Pats uniform in his locker to mock him for that quote.

Millar is slugging .286 on the road this year. He has two RBI during a month of August in which the Red Sox have scored at least 10 runs on five occasions. He hasn't homered since June 4 and he hasn't had a multi-RBI game since July 6.

He is cooked, toast, burnt, fork is in his back, he's an ex-parrot.

Put him out back with the trash and be done with it.
   4. b-ball23 Posted: August 18, 2005 at 01:12 PM (#1554757)
And this is all Theo's fault. He's letting his personal friendship with Millar get in the way. Petagine seems just fine at 1st base along with Olerud for the rest of the year.

Two things Theo hasn't done well: Develop a bullpen and not bench Millar. The bullpen could be corrected with Hansen (and should be fine in a couple of years), but Millar has go to ####### go THEO!!
   5. GGC Posted: August 18, 2005 at 01:12 PM (#1554759)
Take the Brady/Manning discussion to Football Outsiders. They have a permathread devoted to it.

I know there isn't any Brady/Manning discussion yet. I'm just being pre-emptive.
   6. Smiling Joe Hesketh Posted: August 18, 2005 at 01:18 PM (#1554764)
And this is all Theo's fault. He's letting his personal friendship with Millar get in the way.

Uh, what personal friendship? Unless you meant to say "Tito" instead of Theo.

Millar blows. He's sunk so far into the abyss of suck, particularly on the road, that I have to think he's below replacement value at this point.
   7. Jesse Barfield's Right Arm Posted: August 18, 2005 at 01:35 PM (#1554781)
The situation is really amazing, it's reached on an almost (Pat) Borderesque level of loyalty. If the Red Sox didn't win the Series last year, Theo would be SERIOUSLY roasting for this - I mean you DFA Cruz so that Millar can play right?
   8. Mikαεl Posted: August 18, 2005 at 01:36 PM (#1554782)
There are a good few teams out there suffering from worse than a 360/360 line with poor defense at 1B. The problem is that hardly any of these teams have a free 850+ OPS sitting on the bench.

I realize that Millar's stat projection is better, but I don't see how his power will come back. When he hits the ball really, really well, it can just barely carry the monster directly down the line. Usually it dies on the warning track. I don't see the slugging coming back.
   9. Joel W Posted: August 18, 2005 at 01:43 PM (#1554792)
I do think Theo's personal friendship has gotten in the way. He was the guy who gave him the Brady jersey after he said that. It's not all Tito's fault, as Theo could, you know, DFA Millar, forcing Francona to use either Petagine or Youkilis.
   10. philly Posted: August 18, 2005 at 02:02 PM (#1554819)
I basically agree with Mikael in #8, but here's a hypothetical thought question.

At what point does (or did) continuing to play Millar change from sticking with a guy with good projections through a slump (good sabremetrics you might say) to stubbornly playing a respected vet who is cooked (bad proven veteran-itis you might say)?

Even though the Millar haters were apparently right, they probably were too quick to pull the trigger (just because fans are always too quick to pull the trigger).

But in retrospect what was the point to have cut bait with him or at least his playing time?

Petagine's presence confounds things a bit, but what if the Sox options for repalcement were a 26 yr old 4A kid who projected at 750-800, ie something closer to replacement level than Petagine?
   11. OlePerfesser Posted: August 18, 2005 at 02:19 PM (#1554856)
Philly raises a good point. I was one among many who stuck a fork in Millar last June, but then he put up a big 2nd half (.762 OPS pre-All Star, .974 post) and redeemed himself in the eyes of the FO. So they can say waiting for him is/was defensible.

In hindsight, of course, we now know that 2nd half was a stone fluke.

As to what was the point to have cut bait with him, I'd argue that sabermetrics favored dumping him this off season. His road numbers last year were .242/.338/.351. His glove is replacement level. The principles of value investing say he's one of the guys you try to move while someone might still overvalue him.
   12. Mister High Standards Posted: August 18, 2005 at 02:28 PM (#1554880)
It's a scouting question as to when to give up on him, not a SABRmetric question.

His bat while never quick seems to have slowed. I probably didn't pick up on it as fast as a scout would have, and I certainly wouldn't have likely picked up on it if his stats didn't dove tail.

I would say I would have given up on him as soon as it was apparent he couldn't hit for power even against the mistake fastballs, which has always been Millar's strength.

When you have a smaller spread in ability between possiable replacements you stick with your guys longer I think. If the Sox didn't have Freedom, I wouldn't whine about Millar as much.
   13. Meatwad Posted: August 18, 2005 at 02:36 PM (#1554901)
I dont think Brady is one of the best players in the league, hell he wasnt good in college.
   14. OlePerfesser Posted: August 18, 2005 at 03:03 PM (#1554965)
Here's a question for you, Matt: Do you really think scouts judge bat speed with the naked eye? Or do you think they, like us mere mortals, judge it by a combination of looking at the mechanics and combining it with observation of results (i.e., how hard balls are hit and... the numbers).

I'd argue there's an imperceptibly small difference between the bat speeds that'll get fine results in the bigs and those that'll get mediocre results. And a swing takes place in such a confined area and such a brief time frame that any judgments one might make about bat speed based on eyeball observation are extremely speculative and subject to high error rates. Hell, scouts don't even rely on their naked eye to judge pitch velocity, and pitches are at least visible for roughly 60.5'. They measure--and that's what stats do, too.

And in any case, let's say one scout tells Theo "Millar's batspeed is off 5% this Spring." Another just says "yeah, his mechanics are all fouled up." Where does that leave you?

So if you're saying the decision about when a guy is done is ALL in the hands of the eyeball observers, I'd disagree. I'd want to hear what the scouts say, but I'd also carve out a key role for performance analysis, in which you examine data carefully, put it in an appropriate framework (park effects, aging, comparables), and make a bet about what's likely going forward. It's far from foolproof. I would've bet Tony Clark would have been a more valuable 1B in '02 than in '05, for example (sorry to pick at that scab). But to say "it's a scouting question" denies p.a. a role that is, I think, indispensable.
   15. tfbg9 Posted: August 18, 2005 at 03:11 PM (#1554981)
Are Petagine's perhaps very tender knees a factor in this 1B equation? Was he playing 1B every day for the PawSox, or alternating at DH? Somebody did say, for instance, that Roberto was not used much in the Minny series due to the turf's effect on bad knees. I dunno, maybe that has something to do with him being pulled after 5 with a lead also.
   16. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: August 18, 2005 at 03:11 PM (#1554983)
This warped devotion to Millar is the strangest thing of this season.
   17. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: August 18, 2005 at 03:14 PM (#1554990)
I'm pissed that Millar hit 2 HRs for the Boston Meet-up game. Apparently, that was just to mock us. The bastard.
   18. Joel W Posted: August 18, 2005 at 05:35 PM (#1555315)
Really Meatwad, I remember Brady almost bringing Michigan back against Michigan State after Henson had really F'd things up. In fact, I remember if Brady had played every game as the starter, Michigan may have had a shot at the national championship, it was Henson who killed them.

He's still overrated, no matter how much he wins.
   19. Schilling's Sprained Ankiel Posted: August 18, 2005 at 05:39 PM (#1555328)
Joel - I believe the 'wad is a Notre Dame fan. 'nuff said there, I think.
DB
   20. Scoriano Flitcraft Posted: August 18, 2005 at 06:07 PM (#1555410)
I suspect Millar will be kept around and probably hit the Yanks hard in September/October.
   21. Toby Posted: August 18, 2005 at 06:29 PM (#1555488)
Millar 2005 has become McCarty 2004, only with more PT and less ability to throw a garbage-time inning or two.
   22. Toby Posted: August 18, 2005 at 06:45 PM (#1555537)
And let me say this about Millar:

I like Millar. Some here seem to really despise him, just as some seem to really despise Schilling. I hope he turns it around, not only for the Sox' sake, but for his own sake. If the Sox were to cut him, I'd hope he does well elsewhere. I don't get the venom that gets spewed at him from folks here -- KFF and other monikers are pretty nasty. Some of the same people that criticize CHB for calling Ortiz a sack of #### turn around and engage in equally vile name-calling of Millar.

I don't like Millar's production, obviously. But he hustles, he tries to keep his teammates loose, he wants to play, he loves playing for Boston.

Yes, he's probably one of the two worst regulars in baseball today (Christian Guzman is the other). He sucks. But he's not writing the lineup cards. I don't get the loathing for Millar. If it was just because he sucked, I would think there would have been loathing for BK, too, but the sucky version of BK was still some sort of cult hero around here, just like the sucky version of Bellhorn has been.

Anyway, just my two cents.
   23. Famous Original Joe C Posted: August 18, 2005 at 06:54 PM (#1555566)
So there are now 4 1B/DH on the roster, one of whom should almost always play (Ortiz). Something's gotta give...or do they just ride this out until 9/1? Anyone hear anything new on Bellhorn or Nixon?

It's really amazing that this team is 20 games over .500 and has a 4.5 game lead. .285/.362/.460 from your offense can buy quite a bit of leeway.

FWIW, replacing 150 ab of Millar and 50 ab of Olerud with 200 ab of Petagine's MLE is worth 10-12 runs. I don't know how it would work out defensively.
   24. Famous Original Joe C Posted: August 18, 2005 at 06:58 PM (#1555578)
Speaking only for myself, and purely as a fan, Millar is taking playing time from a player I'd rather watch. Everything Toby said is true about Millar...but I also don't really think that any of us mean any of our "attacks" personally or anything like that. At least I don't. It's all in fun. Mostly, anyway. :-)
   25. laurent1056 Posted: August 18, 2005 at 07:00 PM (#1555583)
Ok, I am not a Red Sox fan by anymeans. But has anyone thought that perhaps management believe that Millar has some magic potion that allows him to manage Manny? Perhaps they see that as his value. Is Millar worth having on the team if he is a bridge to Ramirez? I would say yes. I think of him as the Jack Haley to Rodman as he is to Manny Ramirez. While that doesn't mean he should be getting at-bats, I think he does have a value in the public /inter-team relations department. This is a VERY VERY odd mix of players the Red Sox have, and if Millar is part of the glue that somehow holds them together then he should be kept.
   26. Mister High Standards Posted: August 18, 2005 at 07:09 PM (#1555588)
Ole - I don't know if the scouts are that good at identifying bat speed. I am of the opinion that the only way you can tell if someone is done, is observationally. If we only looked at the Stats I would have benched millar last year at the ASB... which clearly would have been an error.
   27. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: August 18, 2005 at 07:18 PM (#1555612)
I dislike Millar because he's annoying, in addition to the lack of production. It was a lot easier to tolerate him when he was hitting.
   28. ellsbury my heart at wounded knee Posted: August 18, 2005 at 07:50 PM (#1555687)
It's a testament to this offense that they are just hitting at such ridiculous rate when they have one of the worst hitting 1B in the majors.

You know, if the rotation stabilizes and the new guys in the bullpen are effective, this could be a pretty good team, even if Millar plays.
   29. Mikαεl Posted: August 18, 2005 at 08:05 PM (#1555726)
I know this isn't even close to being the heart of Toby's point, but I think it's worth noting because it can help answer his questions, somewhat.

Does Millar hustle? He hustles sometimes. He also jogs quite a bit - remember him getting thrown out at 2nd in the '03 ALDS because he wasn't running hard to first? He's not as bad as Manny on that score, but he's also a pretty lazy ballplayer. He also consistently seems to have his head elsewhere, as with his cutting in front of the second baseman on innumerable groundouts.

These are not mortal sins (hell, i'm a big Manny fan), but they are very much part of the package with Millar. Short descriptions of Millar tend to talk about his hustle or dirtdog ethic, when neither is particularly applicable. A lot of the reaction to Millar is more a reaction to his press, and to the inaccuracies therein.

Is that fair? Well, not exactly, but what's fair in fandom? I'm not really troubled by other people liking and disliking different players, and I think it's all been in good fun.
   30. Joel W Posted: August 18, 2005 at 09:16 PM (#1555901)
Look, it matters if you're producing. It would be one thing if Millar called himself Brady when he was slugging .500, but he's not. It's obnoxious to say something like that if it's innaccurate and self-aggrandazing.

Jay-Z, not obnoxious, backs it up. Barry Bonds backs it up, now you might not like him for a variety of reasons, but when he says he was the best player of the 1990s, well, he's right.

I haven't been able to take Millar since he started viewing his clubhouse presence as important, talking about his importance to the team. That's annoying, but it's particularly annoying knowing that it's just not true.

If Kevin Millar had called himself the Mark Madsen of this team, I'd love it. He didn't, and Millar neglects to mention that he could be a good clubhouse presence while not on the field.
   31. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: August 18, 2005 at 09:42 PM (#1555974)
Tom Brady is the best quarterback of the past decade and a half.

he's top 5 all time.

i will hear no heresy against his Bradyness.
   32. Darren Posted: August 18, 2005 at 09:56 PM (#1556012)
Millar's a loudmouth. It'd be easier to like him if he wasn't.

On whether he should hvae been jettisoned earlier, you can make a very good case that he should not have. Petagine, for all his acheivement in Japan, was not ML-proven, so there was at least some degree of doubt about his abilities. On top of that, he had health issues. It was pretty smart to get a 3 month+ look at him before dumping Millar.

Then there's Millar. Millar is generally a slow starter so he's lousy start was not necessarily a terrible sign. Then he hit great in June, which was probably seen as him rounding in to shape as usual. Then when he dropped off a bit, there was no telling whether he was in a brief funk or had "lost it."

Now, right now, it might be worth considering ditching him. But anything before the last month or so would have been premature, unless you were trading him to fill a need.
   33. Gadfly Posted: August 18, 2005 at 09:59 PM (#1556018)
I know someone else brought this up before, but Millar physically bears somewhat of a resemblence to Rafael Palmeiro (the point, of course, being that it is hard to tell a steroid abuser just by his muscles). That person asked if it was possible that Millar's almost complete loss of power was due to his no longer taking steroids in today's testing enviroment.

In a lot of ways, Millar is the perfect suspect for a steroids charge. Before bashing his way to the Majors, he looked like the prototypical defensively challenged Quadruple-A slugger in need of a break.

Of course, this could simply be a complete slander against Millar. But, if I was A GM, I would be on the lookout for this type of player so that I could cash him in before his value was wiped out by his inability to any longer pump himself up with the jump juice.

In any event, I would play Roberto over Millar simply on the basis of merit.
   34. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: August 19, 2005 at 12:24 AM (#1556357)
But anything before the last month or so would have been premature, unless you were trading him to fill a need.

Like the need to rid yourself of Millar?
   35. Phil Coorey. Posted: August 19, 2005 at 12:49 AM (#1556461)
KFF and other monikers are pretty nasty. Some of the same people that criticize CHB for calling Ortiz a sack of #### turn around and engage in equally vile name-calling of Millar.


For a person who had a hot steak going for about 4 days in June and then comes out and blasts the media saying "he is not paid to hit like Ortiz or Manny" tells me he is a f-wit.

Seriously the guy hit well for a minute and thought he was going to do his second half revival thing again.

Yes I friggin hate him, but also in the back of mind respect some things he does for the club.

Millar is not the only guy we spew venon at. Cora, Nixon, Wells, Arroyo, Renteria and McCarty among others get it as well.

Most supporters do it and just cause we make it public on chatter we are suppossed to have a good hard look at ourselves?

Tell me I am barking up the wrong tree here...
   36. Phil Coorey. Posted: August 19, 2005 at 12:52 AM (#1556474)
.but I also don't really think that any of us mean any of our "attacks" personally or anything like that. At least I don't. It's all in fun. Mostly, anyway. :-)

I'll second that, but I will continue to call him fuctard etc especially when he continues to kill rally after rally after rally with his pathetic check swing that has become so common.
   37. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: August 19, 2005 at 01:23 AM (#1556552)
FREE KEVEN YOUKILIS!!!

THEO, RELEASE THE INNER JEW!!!
   38. Toby Posted: August 19, 2005 at 01:38 AM (#1556604)
kevin,

You may be right. Personally, I think the Boston media does a lot of selective spinning with its material, for better or worse. I mean, I suspect just about every player who is not getting regular playing time is not happy about it. Do you think Youkilis is happy with his PT? I doubt it. And I wouldn't expect him to be. Any guy, if you catch him at the right moment, or if you simply overhear him not realizing you are there, is going to be heard to mutter about lack of playing time. The media picks and chooses which quotes to run with. Everyone complains, not every complaint makes the papers. Just my view, as a onetime sportswriter.

JoelW,

you say you "know" that Millar's claim of clubhouse presence "just isn't true". How do you know that?
   39. Joel W Posted: August 19, 2005 at 02:27 AM (#1556716)
excuse me toby, you're right, it's entirely possible that it's true. I guess I just meant that "while it could be true, it just doesn't matter that much, and he shouldn't be saying how important it makes him."
   40. covelli chris p Posted: August 19, 2005 at 02:37 AM (#1556747)
you say you "know" that Millar's claim of clubhouse presence "just isn't true". How do you know that?

is it possible that millar's clubhouse presence makes him as valuable to the red sox as tom brady is to the pats? i'd say that's a no.
   41. Mikαεl Posted: August 19, 2005 at 12:29 PM (#1557208)
Since the advent of freedom in Boston:

5-1 in Petagine starts
3-4 in other games

It's indisputable, baby.
   42. philly Posted: August 19, 2005 at 01:44 PM (#1557287)
Since the advent of freedom in Boston:

5-1 in Petagine starts
3-4 in other games

It's indisputable, baby.


I forget, did he come out of the top half of the 5th or the bottom of the 5th in that wierd game against whomever? Might not qualify for that win.

Or perhaps it's 4.5-1 and 3.5-4.
   43. Answer Guy, without side hustles. Posted: August 19, 2005 at 01:52 PM (#1557300)
Unfree KFF!
   44. Mikαεl Posted: August 19, 2005 at 01:57 PM (#1557309)
Or perhaps it's 4.5-1 and 3.5-4.

Either way, it's indisputable at this point who is truly the Tom Brady of the Red Sox. Freedom is a proven winner.
   45. philly Posted: August 19, 2005 at 02:11 PM (#1557325)
Either way, it's indisputable at this point who is truly the Tom Brady of the Red Sox. Freedom is a proven winner.

Well, now that you've brought up Tom Brady the fatal flaw in your comparison is revealed.

Tom Brady is Tom Brady because of the ringz baby!

Count the Ringz!

Millar - 1
Petagine - 0

You might also say Tom Brady is Tom Brady because of the quality tail I'm sure he's pulling. And on that score I'd probably go with Millar too.

Millar - Foulke's (and Lowe's before him!) sloppy co-ed seconds

Petagine - somebody's grandmother.

Now that I think about it, I think Millar was on to something with the Brady comp.
   46. Answer Guy, without side hustles. Posted: August 19, 2005 at 03:35 PM (#1557547)
I'm sort of looking forward to and simultaneously dreading the first openly gay male major pro athelete. (Sorry, Greg, divers don't count.)

I'd almost be kinda obligated to root for him, even if he was unattractive, a total jerk, and played for the Yankees. *shudder*
   47. Answer Guy, without side hustles. Posted: August 19, 2005 at 03:36 PM (#1557550)
I'm sort of looking forward to and simultaneously dreading the first openly gay male major pro athelete. (Sorry, Greg, divers don't count.)

I'd almost be kinda obligated to root for him, even if he was unattractive, a total jerk, and played for the Yankees. *shudder*
   48. Answer Guy, without side hustles. Posted: August 19, 2005 at 03:42 PM (#1557567)
Oh, no, what if it's Millar?!

Actually, I'd be willing to wager a few days worth of lunch money on it not being him, thankfully.
   49. The Flying Monkey Posted: August 19, 2005 at 08:06 PM (#1558206)
i dislike millar, not because he's a loudmouth, but because he can't admit that he has sucked. if francona started benching him in favor of petagine, he'd throw a fit.

as long as francona is in charge millar will not be dumped. i think theo has been giving francona more decision-making power this year. it's the only way to explain the olreud signing (when we already had petagine) and the welcome back kapler parade (when we already had hyzdu). it's also, i think, why we re-aquired mike myers at the beginning of the year.

millar is awful and francona's loyalty games are really growing tiresome. btw tito, great move bringing in myers last night to face the righty. that was genius.

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