User Comments, Suggestions, or Complaints | Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Advertising
Page rendered in 0.6007 seconds
59 querie(s) executed
You are here > Home > Sox Therapy > Discussion
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sox Therapy — Where Thinking Red Sox Fans Obsess about the Sox Wednesday, October 05, 2011Red Sox Fans Need to Take a Deeeeeeeep BreathOne phenomena which is quite interesting to me is how most of the analysts calling for Theo’s head, and talking about what a flawed team the Red Sox are, are the same people who were talking about how great this team was in the spring and July. People (and by people I include the Red Sox ownership) need to relax and stay the course with this front office. There are decisions in life, unfortunately, where you do everything right in preparation and consideration, but the outcome disappoints. The 2011 Red Sox were an incredibly talented bunch. That everything went wrong all at once for this team in September is a major disappointment to me. Having said that, if this season could be magically played over a hundred times, this team would win a lot of games and make the playoffs most of the time. The Red Sox have been a great team since Theo took over. Although he and the rest of his front office staff don’t deserve all the credit, they deserve most of it. As a reminder, here is the team’s record since 2003:
If I had asked you in 2003, if you’d be happy with this type of success over the next eight years, would you really have complained? Edit: Changed title. Jim |
BookmarksYou must be logged in to view your Bookmarks. Hot TopicsLining Up The Minors
(11 - 8:58am, Apr 23) Last: Jose is an Absurd Doubles Machine Are The Angels A Real Team? (18 - 7:57pm, Apr 21) Last: Jose is an Absurd Doubles Machine So Far So Good (65 - 9:57pm, Apr 15) Last: SoSH U at work Opening Day Overreaction (29 - 1:45pm, Apr 04) Last: jmurph Hope Springs Eternal (Sox Therapy Predictions) (29 - 7:25pm, Mar 29) Last: Chip Roster Update (32 - 4:17pm, Mar 26) Last: jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Report From the Fort (14 - 7:19pm, Mar 15) Last: Jose is an Absurd Doubles Machine Heading for the Fort (18 - 8:14pm, Mar 06) Last: Jose is an Absurd Doubles Machine An Overdue Look at the Roster (41 - 10:10am, Feb 26) Last: Jose is an Absurd Doubles Machine For Future Considerations (18 - 2:48pm, Feb 20) Last: Chip The Future's So Bright, I Gotta Wear Lightly Tinted Shades (12 - 10:16am, Feb 16) Last: villageidiom Bruce, Tom and The Unplanned Path (4 - 4:18am, Feb 08) Last: Morton's Fork Where Is The Offense...It's Right Over Here (19 - 10:54am, Feb 05) Last: villageidiom Is This Thing On? (13 - 8:49am, Jan 26) Last: Jose is an Absurd Doubles Machine Laugh With Me, Not At Me (14 - 11:43am, Jan 17) Last: snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
About Baseball Think Factory | Write for Us | Copyright © 1996-2014 Baseball Think Factory
User Comments, Suggestions, or Complaints | Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Advertising
|
| Page rendered in 0.6007 seconds |
Reader Comments and Retorts
Go to end of page
Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.
1. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: October 05, 2011 at 08:50 PM (#3952650)I think it's fair to say that the Front Office did a good job constructing this team, other than potentially creating a clubhouse with personality issues bad enough to derail the team. The poor FA performance was more than outweighed by good performance by the internally developed players and the players acquired via trade. Obviously the underperformance isn't entirely (and perhaps not even mostly) on Francona, but I don't think there's really significant cause here to call for Theo's head. I think it was time for a new voice in the clubhouse, but the Front Office should mostly be looking to stay the course. Obviously they can try to make smarter free agent signings, but they did pretty damn well to create a team with 95 pythagorean wins and 99 third order wins despite losing 2/5 of the opening day rotation for most of the season as well as having one of the starters go from league average or slightly above in 2010 to the worst starting pitcher in baseball, which I don't think anyone foresaw.
But you didn't ask me, nor tell me. Thus I have every right to complain. If you and your wife have a great run of 8 years, it doesn't make it ok that she ###### the HOA.
But I'll do you a favor. I'll tell you right now that this team will be lucky to catch the tail end of a wild-card play-in, if such a thing exists in 2012.
Not 2003 angry, but certainly the most I have been since then, maybe I don't have much of life out here anymore, maybe I take baseball too seriously, or maybe I just love seeing Boston do well.
In any case - can anyone explain why that stupid mutt at third base has not been let go while Davey Johnson has? I mean if you are firing everyone as they should be, doesn't Bogar come on the contacts list before Johnson?
I got so drunk the night of blind rage that I bought a grill that I didn't remember buying until I was doing my bills several days later. I guess my blind rage was fixed by the temptation of tasty grilled steaks.
Here's the list of veteran (9+ years) GMs in the game:
Cashman
Alderson
Beane
Williams
Dombrowski
Towers
Jocketty
Sabean
O'Dowd
Wade
Melvin
Theo looks quite good on that list. And that ignores all the awful or mediocre GMs that get waded through every few years.
Why that particular data point?
Theo's been on the job 9 years. If you want to catch some of the guys below him, let's say 6 years, it adds Colletti, Mozeliak, Friedman, and Daniels.
I ignored MacPahil in the first list, but he probably belongs too.
I think you can make arguments for Friedman, Beane, Alderson, Jocketty, and Sabean. The other 11 I would say are clearly inferior on balance.
On its good days, it was merely soul-crushing.
maybe I take baseball too seriously,
That's unpossible!
Why say a thing like this when you have no way of knowing anything about what next year will look like right now? And while we're at it, how is that a favor?
But still, so maybe six you'd consider. And I'd throw out Cashman, Alderson (too removed from success, too many bad years), and Beane (he can't even say he beats Theo at player development in the last six or so years) relatively easily. So you've got a 75% percentile GM at worst, and that's with a data set that inherently favors good GMs. Yep, let's get rid of him.
I think the Yanks have an outstanding Org. As we know, A payroll doesn't guarantee anything. It's an advantage to be sure, but the Sox can tell a few stories about 'teams on paper.'.
Because you can continue to bask in the glow of 2004/2007 without worrying about silly things like 2012.
I was born in April 1967. From that point through 2003, the Sox were non-competitive for only a handful of seasons, and only once won fewer than 75 games in a full season (and never less than 70). They went to three WS (I remember two), won two other East titles and could be expected to be in pennant contention at the outset of just about every season*.
Anybody who thought life as a Red Sox fan was some particularly arduous task before the World Series titles had a serious problem with perspective.
* The Hobson years excepted, of course.
Unfortunately I can. Won't somebody think of the baby kangaroos?!
Theo's been very good overall.
He deserves some small level of blame for 2011; lack of SP depth.
More blame should be on manager for stratch run tomfoolery (defense, baserunning, clutch gagging).
curious info from stats shown above: how mnay Sawx fans would guess that the 2004 team allowed more runs than the 2011 team? Context changed pretty fast, didn't it?
You can complain all you like. Make sure you keep a little perspective though. The Sox aren't the Pirates. If the team was your wife, they didn't just sleep with anyone. Instead they planned a 40th birthday party, invited all your family and friends, picked out a great caterer, but forgot to book the venue, so the party had to be canceled at the last minute.
As for the team in 2012, I disagree with you completely, provided the team doesn't panic and rashly overreact by blowing this team up.
I was just as disappointed with the end of this season as anyone. I wasn't 1978 or 2003 disappointed, but I was let down. In dealing with that emotion it's important not to overreact, though. As fans, luckily, we don't directly control the fortunes of the team. What we do, however, is exert pressure on the Red Sox ownership. If we collectively demand radical changes to the team, we can push them into rash action that hurts the team going forward.
Was firing Terry Francona rash? I don't believe it was. Every manager has a shelf life. From what I've noticed, it seems like Terry's expiration date was reached. The fact that Francona's option for 2012 wasn't picked up before the 2011 season suggests to me that ownership/Theo had some questions about Terry's effectiveness before the season. Their historic collapse, in my mind, was proof their concerns were valid.
Which players *need* to be expelled? It's a little difficult to say, not being in the clubhouse. I really don't know who are the true bad guys on the team? By performance alone, the Lackey situation clearly needs to be addressed. Most likely they will do so by having more depth for the starting rotation. With the money invested and his track record before joining the team, I can't see them giving up on him this early, unless his elbow problem or personal issues are far worse than have been made public.
Fixed that for you...
I've seen suggestions including ALL THREE of the following, trade Youk cause he's old, fragile and can't last at 3B, don't resign Ortiz cause no one wants him to be around at the end of a 3 year contract, trade Ellsbury while his value is at its highest. Ladies and gentlemen, your 77-85 Red Sox.
Have you seen anyone who has so much as a sliver of actual knowledge of what the actual front office might do make these suggestions?
Do you think they would trade Youkilis, trade Ellsbury, let Ortiz go, and not get anything back in the trades of any use or sign anyone else?
I've also seen suggestions of trading Beckett and filler for King Felix and for trading Gonzalez for a stud pitcher then signing Albert Pujols. Ladies and gentlemen your 105-67 Red Sox.
Seriously, this is a 95 win team on talent. 90 should be an absolute bare minimum and unless they really mess up the off-season that will be true in 2012.
The AL should be pretty competitive at the top next year. NY, Tampa, Boston, Detroit, LA and Texas all look like potential 90+ game winners. Someone's going to be left out in the cold and someone else will probably jump in.
(1) Oh God, no.
(2) You're not getting back anything that replaces even 2011 120 game sub-Youk, there's no one to sign that can replace 2011 Ortiz, except Pujols or Fielder and that's not happening. And no one is going to trade a 9 WAR player for Ellsbury....I'm jus sayin, I don't think those players are gone, unless they are massive cancers I don't know about.
I would have done the daily double Puke + Cry
I have no problem with Theo staying, but is what he brings anything that Cherrington can't duplicate? The whole point to the FO and the analysis is that it should not be completely dependent on a single person, and I thought the Sox FO had done a lot more in terms of putting systems and tools in place that don't rely on a single, glorious leader. Theo's worth shouldn't be measured in terms of what he has done, but the difference he provides going forward as compared to someone who would have the same resources to work with.
Even if that's straightened out, do you think the Cubs would give up meaningful on-field talent in exchange for Epstein? I don't think a GM has been traded for players before, so all we have to go by are manager-for-player trades; the two I'm aware of are Randy Winn for Lou Piniella, and mediocre minor leaguers for Ozzie Guillen. Even if you would get more for Epstein, I don't think it'd be enough more to significantly affect the future of the organization.
I'm not sure. It seems like there is no question that there will be some compensation, and it seems like a few of the Chicago outlets seem to have Theo as the apple of the Cubs' eye. The fact that there's no precedent and what appears to be a motivated buyer make it an interesting (test) case.
I don't even remember where Youk's stock was at that time; it was certainly very different from his post-Moneyball rep, which has since been eclipsed by his on-field play. The flipside to that is that both the Sox and A's probably valued him similarly enough that they were looking past things like the BA ranking.
Cashman
Alderson
Beane
Williams
Dombrowski
Towers
Jocketty
Sabean
O'Dowd
Wade
Melvin
Pat Gillick says "hi". His record is better than any of the guys listed.....think Toronto Blue Jays, Baltimore Orioles, Seattle Mariners, and Philadelphia Phillies. He actually has a great case as the best GM of all time.
Gillick is a good GM, but not a truly great one IMO, because of his tendency to bail on teams right when they were ready to fall apart.
I'm assuming that he was left off the list because he's not currently a GM, though of course he could be again in the future if he wanted. Gerry Hunsicker would be another guy in that same category.
Tom Ricketts has a track record at hiring GMs?
Who the Cubs would likely wind up with if not Epstein would be Hahn, Cherington, or Coppolella. (With longshot chances at Cashman or Friedman) It's not like we're down to Theo or Bowden here.
You guys are going to be very disappointed if you're expecting a top prospect in return.
I agree 100%.
But a GM of a single organization must be judged in context, and with reasonable expectations. Dave Donbrowski can out-GM Brian Cashman by a wide margin and his team won't be as good on the field.
As an observer, I'd love to see what Theo does in a different setting. But I think it would be a pretty poor move by the Sox to let that happen at this time.
That said, if the team doesn't win a playoff game next year, I think he should go.
Which of course is totally incorrect given taxes, and diversification strategy.
As an individual, about the only thing you can do to make a diversified portfolio deviate from market avg. performance in the long run in to trade frequently. That will lower your return markedly.
As for the GM, guaranteed contracts have the same effect.
Once you're locked into a GM (or a manager) for several million dollars p.a., the replacement has to be clearly better by that amount of guaranteed money before a change is warranted.
A team that churns GMs and managers will likely just waste the money eaten, without improving performance at all.
I obviously meant active GMs. Yes, Gillick would well belong on that list. And of course one ommission doesn't change the point.
You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.
<< Back to main