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   1. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: July 18, 2011 at 03:20 PM (#3880159)
I was thinking of doing a companion piece on the pitching, but I don't have a damn clue what to say about that. A huge portion of the Red Sox world series hopes is bound up in the health of Lester and Buchholz, and beyond that the what-the-hell of John Lackey and the rest of the depth arms. I think Josh Beckett is likely to regress some, but there are very few outcomes for the rotation in the second half that could surprise me.
   2. Jose Is The Most Absurd Thing on the Site Posted: July 18, 2011 at 03:39 PM (#3880177)
It’s not quite proper to blame Gonzalez for all his GIDPs, as I expect he’s had an atypically high number of double play opportunities


Per BB Ref he is first. It probably comes as no surprise that of the top ten there are three Red Sox and three Yankees (rounded out with a Ranger, a White Sox and two Royals). He is not far ahead (just one ahead of Cano) but his DP rate is tenth among players with 10 or more Opps.

Gonzalez - 20 (20%)
Youkilis - 10 (11%)
Ortiz - 16 (19%)

I think you hit the high points all around. One guy I think is going to contribute more, and already has in my view, is Lackey. I think there is something to be said for a trend of;

decent start
decent start
decent start
holy crap what the hell is that this guy sucks #### him and the horse he rode in on start
decent start

That results in the numbers looking pretty bad but from a wins/losses perspective I think this actually is productive. I don't want to see him in October because of that 4th start on the list but for now it works. The news on Buchholz sounds pretty pessimistic and the Sox were being linked with Kuroda over the weekend. I'll be curious to see if they do something there.
   3. Famous Original Joe C Posted: July 18, 2011 at 03:41 PM (#3880181)
but this does suggest that Gonzalez has actually been doing about what he’s projected to do.

Good post, MC, thanks.

I've been thinking about him in regard to under/overperforming, and this is spot on. Everyone thinks he's been SOOO good because he's hit .350 - which is true, but a bit misleading. Basically, he's replaced a few walks and XBH with singles. His OBP and SLG are right about where you'd expect them, even if the batting average is 40-50 points higher.

The DP thing was not something I'd picked up on though.
   4. Dan Posted: July 18, 2011 at 03:42 PM (#3880182)
Those numbers match up with my mental image of the situation. I said basically as much in a thread on the main board a few weeks ago and a Yankee fan laughed at me for mentioning underperformance by bench players like Cameron and McDonald and using that to say that the Sox offense won't really regress since they'll get better production from the OF corners. But those numbers really show how much negative value those guys have created in relatively limited playing time, and that's simply value below the value expected from their already unimpressive projections. If this team can even get average offense from the corner outfield positions going forward that will be absolutely huge. And I feel good about a rested and refreshed Crawford combining with Reddick in RF to get that done.

I think the 3 real questions for this team are going to be who platoons with Reddick in RF (if anyone), what kind of a starter they can add that would be an upgrade over the Miller/Wakefield/Weiland/Doubront/etc. group, and if they can upgrade at SS. I'd love to get Beltran but the cost might be prohibitive when we can get solid production from Reddick in that spot (at least against RHP). I'm not really sure who's on the market to target as a RH platoon OF, maybe Reed Johnson? And while I'd love to upgrade SS (especially defensively), I don't really think there are many options on the market for that with the Orioles extending Hardy. Reyes is probably not available, and definitely not available without paying a king's ransom. A healthy Lowrie would be an upgrade on Scutaro, but sadly it's beginning to look like 1-2 months of healthy Lowrie a year is all we'll get.

I believe that he most interesting question for the next couple of weeks as we approach the trade deadline will be how Theo can bolster the rotation.
   5. Dale Sams Posted: July 18, 2011 at 03:45 PM (#3880185)
I expect Wake to get shelled tonight. That's all I got.

Have the Sox made a move since the BP is toast? I'd waiver McD and send Sutton down personally. Bring Millwood up to give him a taste?

Frankly, the Sox could easily lose the next 4 given the matchups (See Hernandez) and pitchers, see Weiland, Wake and Miller.
   6. Dan Posted: July 18, 2011 at 03:49 PM (#3880188)
I think Gonzalez will walk more and hit more HRs in the second half, but hit fewers singles and doubles (and triples).
   7. Dan Posted: July 18, 2011 at 03:51 PM (#3880190)
Have the Sox made a move since the BP is toast? I'd waiver McD and send Sutton down personally. Bring Millwood up to give him a taste?


They can't drop a position player for a pitcher right now. Ortiz is probably going to have to start serving his suspension. The Sox can't go into this series with 11 position players on the active roster. They'd have one bench player besides the backup catcher du jour.
   8. Jose Is The Most Absurd Thing on the Site Posted: July 18, 2011 at 03:52 PM (#3880192)
Considering they went 16 innings last night I don't think the bullpen is in bad shape. Aceves and Bard are probably unavailable but Albers (20 pitches), Morales (19) and Papelbon (11) should be fine. That sets up a perfect world of (guessing) Wheeler-Albers-Papelbon in the 7-8-9 innings with Weiland probably tapped if Wakefield gets walloped and a move for tomorrow where Weiland goes down for a starter. Depending on how tonight goes tomorrow might be the day where something's gotta give.
   9. Dale Sams Posted: July 18, 2011 at 03:55 PM (#3880196)
hmm good points guys.
   10. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: July 18, 2011 at 04:30 PM (#3880222)
I agree that Weiland will be sacrificed for the bullpen's sake if Wakefield is torched tonight. Aceves, by the way, is an awesome multi-inning reliever for this team, and will probably help bail us out either Tuesday or Wednesday...
   11. John DiFool2 Posted: July 18, 2011 at 04:32 PM (#3880226)
Gonzo comes to the plate with a guy on 1st at least 31.7% of the time (Pedroia's singles and walks), so I'd say the DPs aren't all his fault. And he also leads the league in RBI chances too (since they both are correlated).
   12. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: July 18, 2011 at 04:46 PM (#3880245)
I think the 3 real questions for this team are going to be who platoons with Reddick in RF (if anyone)
Darnell McDonald's hitting 345/545 in July. I'm the one person in the world who hasn't given up on McDonald as a backup outfielder. I think he's still going to be fine.
   13. Famous Original Joe C Posted: July 18, 2011 at 04:47 PM (#3880247)
Darnell McDonald's hitting 345/545 in July. I'm the one person in the world who hasn't given up on McDonald as a backup outfielder. I think he's still going to be fine.

Two of us.
   14. Dan Posted: July 18, 2011 at 07:14 PM (#3880394)
I'm okay with McDonald, I just left the possibility open that the Sox might look to upgrade.

Ellsbury DH
Pedroia 2B
Gonzalez 1B
Youkilis 3B
Reddick CF
Crawford LF
Saltalamacchia C
Drew RF
Scutaro SS

Reddick batting 5th ahead of Crawford and Drew. No way this guy loses significant PT once Ortiz is back from his suspension.
   15. Dan Posted: July 18, 2011 at 07:46 PM (#3880429)
And it is in fact Sutton who goes back to Pawtucket.
   16. Joel W Posted: July 18, 2011 at 08:35 PM (#3880496)
I was actually just looking at Lackey since he came off of his stint on the disabled list. 45 IPs, 40Ks, 11 BBs, 6 HRs, and a 5.56 ERA. That's a FIP just under 4. I'm going to go with him being non-terrible to serviceable number 4. I'm also expecting a lot more out of Crawford, with the cascade being that the corners are going to get a lot better, and the bench a lot better. Ortiz I'd expect to have one big slump where everything just looks terrible.
   17. plim Posted: July 18, 2011 at 10:00 PM (#3880588)

11. John DiFool2 Posted: July 18, 2011 at 12:32 PM (#3880226)

Gonzo comes to the plate with a guy on 1st at least 31.7% of the time (Pedroia's singles and walks), so I'd say the DPs aren't all his fault. And he also leads the league in RBI chances too (since they both are correlated).


you take the good, you take the bad, you take them both and there you have, the Facts of Life, the Facts of Life...
   18. Tor Posted: July 19, 2011 at 04:39 AM (#3881072)
Top Sox hot streaks since the start of 1979:


2004 98-62 (.613 over 160 games)
2004 96-60 (.615 over 156 games)
1986 87-52 (.626 over 139 games)
2011 56-26 (.683 over 82 games) [most recent 82 games]
2004 40-14 (.741 over 54 games)
2004 28- 6 (.824 over 34 games)
1988 19- 1 (.950 over 20 games)
1988 12- 0 (1.000 over 12 games)
1995 12- 0
2006 12- 0
   19. Tor Posted: July 19, 2011 at 04:43 AM (#3881075)
If you include 1978, most of the recent stuff disappears. Here is the list since the start of 1970:


1978 99-61 (.618 over 160 games)
1978 84-45 (.651 over 129 games)
1978 83-44 (.654 over 127 games)
1978 61-25 (.709 over 86 games)
1978 39-11 (.780 over 50 games)
1988 19- 1 (.950 over 20 games)
1988 12- 0 (1.000 over 12 games)
1995 12- 0
2006 12- 0

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