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Monday, June 05, 2017

Feeling A Draft - Part I

One week from today the Red Sox (and 29 teams no one cares about) will be making their selections in the annual draft.  Thanks to last year’s division title the Sox do not have an early pick (which is how I like it!) and will make their first three picks at 24th, 63rd and 101st.  Thanks to Baseball-Reference I thought it would be useful to look at what these picks have yielded in the past.

Pick 24:

Top 5 WAR (29 of 52 made MLB)
Alex Fernandez - 28.9 - 1988
Rondell White - 28.1 - 1990
Chad Billingsley - 16.9 - 2003
Rich Dauer - 14.4 - 1974
Terry Mulholland - 11.3 - 1984

Red Sox Picks
1966 - Joseph McCullough (no MLB)
1995 - Corey Jenkins (no MLB)
2012 - Deven Marrero (-0.4 WAR)

Notes: Not a lot to offer here.  As you can see the Sox are not likely to get a star with this pick but some shrewdness might land them a useful piece.

Pick 63:

Top 5 WAR (29 of 52 made MLB)
Eddie Murray - 68.3 - 1973 (as a catcher!)
Darren Oliver - 22.6 - 1988
Zane Smith - 21.0 - 1982
Jason Kipnis - 20.2 - 2009
Elliott Maddox - 14.9 - 1966

Red Sox Picks
1967 - Dudley Mitchell (no MLB)
1971 - Jim Vost (no MLB)
1975 - Ed Jurak (0.7 WAR)

Notes: Surprisingly fertile ground.  Basically this pick has historically not been appreciably less valuable than the 24th pick.  Even if you swapped Murray and Fernandez in the top spot this pick has been alright.

Pick 101:

Top 5 WAR (16 of 52 made MLB)
Jonathan Lucroy - 19.9 - 2007
Charlie Moore - 10.3 - 1971
Danny Graves - 5.9 - 1994
Dennis Blair - 3.4 - 1972
Ryan Langerhans - 3.1 - 1998

Red Sox Picks
1980 - Jeff Hall (no MLB)
1985 - Donnie McGowan (no MLB)
1997 - Travis Harper (0.3 WAR)

Notes: Apparently if you want to be a Brewer catcher this is a good spot to get drafted.  Not surprisingly this pick has fairly little to offer historically.

Later this week I’ll try to dig into some of the names we might want to watch for this coming week in these spots.

Jose is an Absurd Doubles Machine Posted: June 05, 2017 at 09:52 AM | 4 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. Mike Webber Posted: June 05, 2017 at 09:32 PM (#5469418)
Nice Jose. I'm not surprised that pick 63 has a better top 5 in WAR than pick 24, but I am surprised that the number of players reaching the big leagues is identical.
   2. Jose is an Absurd Doubles Machine Posted: June 05, 2017 at 10:25 PM (#5469456)
Yeah that surprised me too. I mean you've got Murray in there which skews the overall number but I figured there would be a drop off.
   3. Jose is an Absurd Doubles Machine Posted: June 07, 2017 at 03:26 PM (#5470942)
So the most recent Mock Draft at Baseball America was Memorial Day. In that one the BA folks have the Sox picking Seth Romero. This is intriguing because he is somewhat similar to Groome as a highly regarded talent with personality question marks. In Romero's case he was kicked off the team at the University of Houston for repeated rules violations (I can't find what he actually did). In previous versions they've had the Sox tabbing Tanner Houck (RHP) who they describe as having a 70 grade sinker.
   4. Jose is an Absurd Doubles Machine Posted: June 09, 2017 at 04:18 PM (#5472905)
Mock Draft 4.0 is now up. The Sox are now tagged as getting LHP David Peterson out of Oregon. Apparently they drafted him in 2013 out of high school but (obviously) he didn't sign. Big dude, 6'6" 235 with what is described as a top notch change up. Romero who they had being picked there in the last draft now goes one pick later to Washington.

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