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   1. Golfing Great Mitch Cumstein Posted: June 06, 2007 at 03:56 AM (#2394693)
The SOSH forum is a bunch of draft summaries. I am missing something?
   2. Darren Posted: June 06, 2007 at 04:00 AM (#2394696)
Each one has a lot of analysis in it. Good reading.
   3. JB H Posted: June 06, 2007 at 04:33 AM (#2394741)
Are there any Luke Hochavers we're expected to have a shot at?
   4. Xander Posted: June 06, 2007 at 04:47 AM (#2394755)
If you mean, will there be players that fall because of their demands, then yes. If you mean, will there be a polished college righty with potential Top 10 stuff that will fall to us, then no.

I'll write more after the game.
   5. Xander Posted: June 06, 2007 at 05:47 AM (#2394777)
I would really like to see the Sox making a move towards adding more athleticism in the system this draft. If that means drafting Chad Jones, Taiwan Easterling, Jiwon James, or Londell Taylor, then so be it. But history has shown that the Sox simply do not buy into that type of player. They rather infuse the system with thick white kids from Georgia or South Carolina with contact problems. Oh well. Much of the pre-draft rhetoric this year has been about "trying to hit a homerun with their picks." Or in other words, setting sights on the high-ceilinged prep talent. I'll see it when I believe it.

Ideally, the Sox would have a shot at one of the Boras prep players who falls because of money demands. I suppose Porcello is a pipe dream, but from what I've head Matt Harvey believes he can get Top 10 money. Now I'm not personally in love with Matt Harvey, the player. But his two coaches this summer at the Northeast Prospect Games were Sox scouts (Fagnant and Bowers), so there is some organizational familiarity with him. Of course that could just as well mean that they are well in tune with his flaws.

Andrew Brackman = pass. Let him slip slide away.

Casey Crosby is a big lefty who they have been throwing a lot of love at over the last two weeks. He comes from Illinois, which is having a particularly strong prep pitching year. His velocity increased over the season to the point where he could sit low to mid 90's. He's still raw, much moreso than Bowden when they drafted him out of Illinois two years ago. But he's got that upside which people are in love with.

Jack McGeary obviously needs to be talked about here since he is so often connected with the Sox in one way or another. My prediction? They take him in the 14th round, don't get a deal done with him, and he goes to Stanford. I like him; he seems like a nice kid with a good clean arm and solid athleticism. But he was the beneficiary of some undeserved hype at the beginning of the year which has inevitably slingshotted back and hit him right in the face over the last two weeks. He wants Top 10 money and no team is going to give it to him. Ta ta.

Rob English Pick: It wouldn't be a Sox draft if Rob English didn't get to call the shots in one of the first 3 rounds. Some choices:

Nathan Vineyard- LHP with a low-90's fastball and a potential for two plus pitches.

Lyle Allen- Left-handed hitting outfielder. Good athlete with a quick, sweet stroke. Might move to 1B in the future, but has the athleticism right now to stay in the outfield.

Chase Weems- Slim catcher with off-the-chart pop times. Bat remains a question.

I'll post more in the next 24 hours.
   6. NTNgod Posted: June 06, 2007 at 06:01 AM (#2394780)
Ideally, the Sox would have a shot at one of the Boras prep players who falls because of money demands.

A wild card this year is the change in compensation for unsigned players - since you get basically the same pick next year if you don't sign your first-rounder, will teams towards the backend of the first round (especially those with multiple early picks) be more willing to take the risk and draft those players anyways? Worst case, they'll get another first rounder next year...

It'll be interesting to see how that affects this year's draft.
   7. Phil Coorey is a T-Shirt Salesman Posted: June 06, 2007 at 06:38 AM (#2394785)
Thanks Temple, keep them coming
   8. JB H Posted: June 06, 2007 at 07:04 AM (#2394788)
Much of the pre-draft rhetoric this year has been about "trying to hit a homerun with their picks." Or in other words, setting sights on the high-ceilinged prep talent. I'll see it when I believe it.
I don't really buy that being the right strategy. Dustin Pedroia was the classic low-upside, low-risk pick and the 6 years the Sox control him for could very well be worth more than the first 6 years of any "home run" pick drafted outside of the first round. Now obviously the Sox got a little lucky that Pedroia's been as good as he is, but nobody's shocked by his success. Just draft the best players.
   9. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: June 06, 2007 at 07:42 AM (#2394792)
If that means drafting Chad Jones, Taiwan Easterling, Jiwon James, or Londell Taylor, then so be it.

Dude, the Red Sox care about plate discipline and pitch selections. We suck at pitch selection because our slanty eyes inhibit our peripheral vision.
   10. philly Posted: June 07, 2007 at 03:11 PM (#2396116)
I added a couple more long posts to the SoSH main board if you're interested.

This one looks at the 1987-94 drafts by teams with some GM and Scouting Direcotr stuff thrown in too.

link

And this one gives success probabilites (amongst other things actually) for every pick in the first 7 rounds.

link
   11. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: June 07, 2007 at 04:03 PM (#2396164)
The gap between #1 and the rest of the draft is pretty insane. 40% for >60 WARP, when no other slot breaks 10. I assume some part of that is that #1 picks get more chances, regardless of merit, but there's no way that accounts for most of the difference - #2 picks get a lot of slack, too. The best player is really, really the best player.
   12. chris p Posted: June 07, 2007 at 04:37 PM (#2396181)
The gap between #1 and the rest of the draft is pretty insane. 40% for >60 WARP, when no other slot breaks 10. I assume some part of that is that #1 picks get more chances, regardless of merit, but there's no way that accounts for most of the difference - #2 picks get a lot of slack, too. The best player is really, really the best player.

i'd guess that it's becuase you often, but not always, have 1 can't miss guy, but how often are there 2 can't miss prospects? so, to throw out some numbers, maybe there's a 50% chance of there being a can't miss prospect in the draft, and then 10-20% of the time, that can't miss prospect misses. justin upton was probably one of those guys, but is david price a can't miss prospect? i don't know enough about him.
   13. philly Posted: June 07, 2007 at 05:42 PM (#2396256)
Rany aslo found a huge gap between #1 and #2 in his study that looked at, I think 16 drafts so I'm pretty sure my result is real (or real enough) but my 8 year period includes both Griffey and ARod as the #1 overall and it's certainly not ture that 25% of the time you get a player like that.

And actually here are the #1s from 1995-2006:

2006 Luke Hochevar
2005 Justin Upton
2004 Matt Bush
2003 Delmon Young
2002 Bryan Bullington
2001 Joe Mauer
2000 Adrian Gonzalez
1999 Josh Hamilton
1998 Pat Burrell
1997 Matt Anderson
1996 Kris Benson
1995 Darren Erstad

That's much more of a mixed bag although some of the busts have a signability taint and there's just nothing you can do about that.
   14. Darren Posted: June 07, 2007 at 10:18 PM (#2396830)
With their first pick, the Sox take Washington reliever Nicholas Hagadone. Is he Papelbon or Hansen?
   15. Xander Posted: June 07, 2007 at 10:29 PM (#2396837)
Neither really. I'll write a re-cap after day 1.
   16. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: June 07, 2007 at 11:18 PM (#2396889)
Jeffrey Morris is the first Sox pick for whom the MLB.com video works. That kid is just huge for a high schooler. IIt's hard for me to see how he could play a position other than 1B - also, he throws all weird - but he looks like a real power hitter.
   17. 1k5v3L Posted: June 07, 2007 at 11:22 PM (#2396899)
So, if you don't like Ryan Dent, you are an anti-dentite?
   18. Xander Posted: June 08, 2007 at 01:12 AM (#2397048)
55. Nick Hagadone- Seems like the right place for Hagadone to go. He's going to be given a chance to start with the Red Sox organization. Whether he his stuff primarily plays up in relief will be interesting to see. Power lefties are always at a premium. Not my first choice in this spot, but I understand it.

62. Ryan Dent- He was connected to the Sox before the draft, so this isn't really a surprise. He's a speed demon with good athleticism and decent power. He isn't very big, however and there are questions as to if he can stay at SS. Actually, there aren't really questions, but probably won't be staying at SS.

84. Hunter Morris- He's got first basemen written all over him. He has a very advanced approach, good patience, and huge power. But like all Rob English picks, he's going to rack up a lot of strikeouts early in his career. Could be a middle of the order bat if he develops correctly.

114. Brock Huntzinger- A little surprising, but makes sense. He's a polished high school pitcher who can repeat his delivery and maintain a low-90's fastball. Should be an interesting follow. Not a high ceiling here.

144. Christopher Province- Typical Sox 4th round pick, where they look for an undervalued player. Province will be a senior sign and come relatively cheap. He can throw a mid 90's fastball from the pen with a high 80's slider. I'll wait and see on this one.

174. Will Middlebrooks- Ranked way above where he was drafted. No one had as much helium earlier in the season than Middlebrooks. He's a fantastic athlete with a plus arm. I'm pretty sure the Sox will use him at 3B, instead of from the mound.

High School- 4
College- 2

Pitcher- 3
Position Player- 3

Where did the come from and which scout found them?

Nick Hagadone- Washington- John Booher
Ryan Dent- California- Dan Madsen
Hunter Morris- Alabama- Rob English (East Cobb)
Brock Huntzinger- Indiana- Josh Loggins
Christopher Province- Louisiana- Danny Watkins
Will Middlebrooks- Texas- Jim Robinson
   19. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: June 08, 2007 at 01:32 AM (#2397066)
I heard we took a High school SS WITH TOOLS!!!!

YEA TOOLS!!!!!
   20. philly Posted: June 08, 2007 at 01:46 AM (#2397091)
What's the East Cobb connection for Morris? The BA scouting report has him a 4 yr player at his AL HS. If he just did some summer stuff through East Cobb he may be more a Watkins player than an English player.

And the Sox have two scouts covering southern Cal so I'm not sure we'll know if Dent is officially a Madsen player or a Jim Woodward until the signing is made official unless it comes up in a post-draft story or something.

After the draft is over and we see what tough signs the Sox get I'll throw up full scouting tables for the key players. The short version so far is:

Booher's big sign to date is Ellsbury.

Madsen has a nice track record with Pedroia and Masterson. Woodward has a lousy one with Abe Alvarez and Scott Blue.

English has a bunch of guys mostly Murton, Place, Hall and Rozier.

Loggins has never signed anybody for the Sox or any other organization as far as I know. No track record at all, but I bet he's pretty pumped about the Huntzinger pick.

Watkins signed Chris Burke with the Astros and Caleb Clay who we've yet to see with the Sox.

Robinson probably has the best track record of any Sox scout. He's signed Buchholz, Shoppach, Fossum, Murphy and Bryce Cox.
   21. Xander Posted: June 08, 2007 at 01:57 AM (#2397111)
What's the East Cobb connection for Morris? The BA scouting report has him a 4 yr player at his AL HS. If he just did some summer stuff through East Cobb he may be more a Watkins player than an English player.
Yea, you could be right. I read that he spent time in the East Cobb summer program, and since it seems like English always gets to call the shot on at least one pick in the first 4 rounds, I assumed it was his call.

Loggins was also the driving force behind Casey Crosby, but he obviously got picked after the Sox last pick of the day.
   22. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: June 08, 2007 at 02:30 AM (#2397165)
Who was responsible for the Papelbon picks?
   23. philly Posted: June 08, 2007 at 03:57 AM (#2397204)
Who was responsible for the Papelbon picks?


Jonathon was signed by Joe Mason who left the organization after 2004.

Josh was signed by Anthony Turco out of Florida. For whatever reason the Sox have picked very few Florida players going back 20 years or so. The current Florida scouts are pretty inexperienced to from what I can tell.
   24. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: June 08, 2007 at 04:23 AM (#2397209)
We shoulda picked Papelbon's other brother too. I mean, he was picked in the 19th round by the Cubs, we coudln't have used an 18 round pick to pick him?
   25. Xander Posted: June 08, 2007 at 04:34 AM (#2397212)
I'm happy with our 18th round pick from last year.
   26. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: June 08, 2007 at 04:39 AM (#2397213)
Nah, I was merely hoping 3 years down the road, we could enter the 7th inning with a lead, and then we'd send up the LOOGY Papelbon to get two lefties out, send up the submariner ROOGY Papelbon to get the righty, and send up Normal Papelbon for the 9th.
   27. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: June 08, 2007 at 03:13 PM (#2397399)
We've picked more pitchers.

i know we're supposed to "pick the best player" and what not, but DAMMIT PICK A CATCHER ALREADY
   28. chris p Posted: June 08, 2007 at 06:03 PM (#2397495)
I'm happy with our 18th round pick from last year.

16th and 17th rounders, too.

Nah, I was merely hoping 3 years down the road, we could enter the 7th inning with a lead, and then we'd send up the LOOGY Papelbon to get two lefties out, send up the submariner ROOGY Papelbon to get the righty, and send up Normal Papelbon for the 9th.

if we sent his brother's out for the 7th and 8th, the 9th would be mopup duty.
   29. JB H Posted: June 08, 2007 at 07:47 PM (#2397561)
Looks like we took a mountain of tough signs in day two, although none seem to stand out like Lars Anderson/LaPorta did last year.

I love sweating all the tough signs through the summer <3
   30. Darren Posted: June 08, 2007 at 09:32 PM (#2397616)
The two big signability picks, AFAICT, are Grandal (BA #42) and Tepesch (BA #62). Both went in the 20s, which makes me wonder why they weren't drafted in the teens like last year's signability guys. Grandal scares me a bit in that it sounds like he can't hit. I was hoping they'd get Kentrail Davis, who Brewerfan.net had at #18 and BA had at 54. He sounds like a fun player.
   31. Xander Posted: June 09, 2007 at 06:29 AM (#2398305)
My thoughts:

6. Anthony Rizzo- I really like taking these younger high school players. I don't think people take age enough into account when these players are drafted; but it's one of the first things I looked at. Rizzo won't turn 19 until next August, and will be listed as an 18-year old in his first year of pro ball. I love his stroke and the fact that he's played a high level of competition. He's supposed to be a good athlete too. Like the pick.

7. David Mailman- Nice to see Quincy Boyd finally pulling his weight around here. I see mailman as a rightfielder. He's got a good arm and his bat will play. He does need to put on weight though. That will come. He's not an easy sign, but I think they get it done.

8. Adam Mills- Adam Mills was a pleasure to follow this season. He was one of the most consistent pitchers in the country; always good for an 8 or 9 inning outing. Hey, maybe his stuff is short for the majors. But we all know there are pitchers who are successful once in a while with underwhelming stuff. He's a cheap sign and a good gamble to exceed expectations. He won't beat himself and he doesn't back down.

9. Kade Keown- Fascinating player. He's huge and has good all-around tools, but he's only now learning to use them. I really don't know what to expect from him, but it's a nice gamble.

10. Kenneth Roque- I'm not comfortable with his actions at SS, but I like his level compact swing from the left-side. He's also very young, and a sure sign. He'll be interesting to follow in the GCL.

11. Ryan Pressly- There's really no information available on him, other than he has a low-90's fastball. He's a Jim Robinson pick, who I trust a lot. Wait and see.

12. Eammon Portice- I see his future in the pen. He's been inconsistent his last two years at High Point, but he has a good fastball/splitter combination which usually translates well to the pen. Also a pretty cool name.

13. Justin Grimm- I like him...a lot. He's not an easy sign (he'll want around $750,000), and he's got an injury history (broken arm), but you can't doubt the stuff. There is also room for projection.

14. Jake Cowan- I vacillate between him and Grimm as to which I like more. I see Cowan as having the opportunity for more dominant breaking pitches, but I think Grimm shows more consistency. Cowan might be even a tougher sign, as he has a commitment to UVA (Grimm is from Virginia and he's going to UGa and Cowan's from Georgia and going to UVA...weird).

15. Scott Green- Interestingly, the college pitcher might have the highest upside of any pitcher they've picked. Green is enormous (6'8") and he can throw in the mid-90's with good breaking pitches. However he's draft-eligible sophomore with the opportunity to go in the first round next year if he stays healthy (he was coming off TJ surgery this year). He will command more than one million dollars and might be the toughest sign.

16. Austin Bailey- Bailey might have a bigger arm than Grimm and Cowan, but he's not as polished as either of them. He's not a big kid, and he might be physically maxed out. I don't think we'll sign him out of a Bama commitment.

17. Jaren Matthews- The Sox break away for a second from their pre-civil rights draft strategy and go with the 2-sport athlete from New Jeruse. Matthews split time at QB for national football powerhouse Don Bosco Prep and he also played 1B for their baseball team. He's got power potential and athleticism which could allow him to play the outfield. He's committed to Rutgers.

18. Hunter Strickland- Pretty signable for a high school pitcher, Strickland shows a low-90's fastball and a good curveball. Might have to move to the pen down the road, as he doesn't project to get much stronger.

19. David Marks- Marks got much bigger this year and it helped his power tremendously. Aside from his bat however, he's a pretty average player.

20. Daniel Milano- The Lowell catcher for this summer and a decent pick. He had good numbers as a senior and plays solid defense.

21. Aaron Reza- College SS without power, decent defense, and good speed. Lowell filler.

22. William Latimer- Put up pretty mediocre numbers with below average competition. Don't see much here.

23. Drake Britton- Can throw in the low-90's with a nice curveball. Has a commitment to A&M which might be an obstacle.

24. Matt Presley- The best player in the state of Colorado, Presley has plus power to all fields. None of his other tools grade as above average however, and he will have to move to the OF. He wants $500,000 to keep him away from Arizona. We'll see.

25. Seth Garrison- Was having a good year at TCU until he had TJ surgery. Doubt he signs.

26. Deshaun Brooks- A native of the Virgin Islands, Brooks offers a plus defender at 3B with a big frame. Should be the 3B at Lowell.

27. Yasmani Grandal- Arguable the best defensive catcher in the draft. Grandal's stock plummeted after he started asking for one million dollars. His offense trails his defense, and he will most likely be working on it for three years at The U.

28. Nick Tepesch- He's got a great arm and a great frame, but an asking price of 1.25 million. Doubt he signs.

29. Junior Carlin- He pitches with his left hand.

30. Will Vazquez- Back-up catcher at Lowell. Below average offensively.

31. Daniel Buller- N/A

32. Ridge Carpenter- We can stop drafting people from Hawaii now.

33. Garrett Larsen- Not much here

34. Anthony Bajoczky- Duke's Friday night starter. Anything Duke sucks.

35. Sean Tierney- Was big on the circuit last summer, but had a brutal spring. He's going to UVa.

36. Scott Lyons- N/A

37. Scott Lonergran- Transferred to Rice. Had a decent year in limited action.

38. Derrick Stultz- Had a good year in the Florida prep circuit. Summer follow.

39. Jonathan Roof- Son of Gene Roof who is a coach in the Tigers' organization. Committed to Michigan State. Will most likely go.

40. Ryan Fischer- High 80's fastball and a good curveball. Most likely going to Pacific University.

41. Michael Bourdon- One of the best prep catchers from the northeast. He has a strong commitment to Fairfield, which is a weird thing to type. Could turn into a top 5 round pick in 3 years.

42. Chad Povich- The best pitcher for Dixie State. Might sign and go to Lowell.

43. Scott Cure- Good sized lefty with a below average fastball. Let him go to school.

44. Emmanuel Solano- He is going to be 25 later this year. Need I say more?

45. Peter Gilardo- Catcher from NY who a lot of people think will be converted to pitcher because of his plus arm strength. Interesting pick. We'll see.

46. Garrett Young- It's an embarrassment that we'd draft someone from Liberty University.
   32. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: June 09, 2007 at 08:45 AM (#2398313)
Grandal scares me a bit in that it sounds like he can't hit.

Who cares, he's not Doug Mirabelli
   33. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: June 09, 2007 at 11:26 AM (#2398324)
if we sent his brother's out for the 7th and 8th, the 9th would be mopup duty.

The Papelbon brothers are so much, they hit home runs everytiem they bat!!!
   34. Golfing Great Mitch Cumstein Posted: June 09, 2007 at 11:56 AM (#2398330)
Temple,
Do the Red Sox have a budget for signing draft picks or do they evaluate each draftee separately? Also, what do you think of Alex Garabedian? I have a slight connection to him and hope he does well after getting screwed with by the U.
   35. Darren Posted: June 09, 2007 at 01:53 PM (#2398346)
A couple observations on Mills:

--Although he played in the A-10, his Charlotte team had the 43rd toughest schedule in the nation according to Boyd's.

--Despite his lack of raw stuff, he was 4th in the nation in Ks, 1st in IP, 1st in ERA, and allowed only 1 HR.

--I wonder where they will start him. With polish seeming to be his top attribute, I imagine they'd want him in at least Greenville, possibly Lancaster. The latter would be awfully tough, but perhaps not so bad as a transition from aluminum bats.

--I've decided that he's the next Tim Hudson--how's that for fanboy?
   36. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: June 09, 2007 at 02:01 PM (#2398349)
I've decided that he's the next Tim Hudson--how's that for fanboy?

I guess yuo're not onboard with the "If you pimp it, it'll go bad" hypothesis?
   37. Darren Posted: June 13, 2007 at 12:34 AM (#2401920)
Old friend Hairps posted this comparison on the Soxprospects message board:

Adam Mills | Brandon Webb

FINAL COLLEGE SEASONS

MLB Pick: 8-264 | 8-249
IP: 142.7 | 112
BB/9: 1.70 | 3.29
H/9: 5.87 | 9.88
HR/9: 0.06 | 1.13
K/9: 8.89 | 9.88
GB%: 66.8% | 64.6% (Actually, that's an avg of Webb's last four MLB seasons).

Obviously, I'm not suggesting what some folks will think I'm suggesting. But, it's interesting.

EDIT: Also, to be clear, the GB% for Mills is Outs only. I don't care enough to go back and infer the rates for the hits he gave up.


Not sure how their stuff compares. Mills throws a knuckle curve, so probably Mussina is also a good comp. He's definitely one of Mussina, Webb, or Hudson. Or Pedro.
   38. Mike Emeigh Posted: June 13, 2007 at 01:30 AM (#2402133)
Of course, BWebb played in the SEC, whereas Mills played in the A-10. I don't know what a schedule comparison would indicate (I know that Charlotte played a tough schedule, but many of their tough games were intraweek when the good teams would use lesser pitchers against them).

-- MWE
   39. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: June 13, 2007 at 01:52 AM (#2402166)
Adam Mills #: Look more like Wang's numbers now.
   40. Darren Posted: June 13, 2007 at 02:19 AM (#2402197)
(I know that Charlotte played a tough schedule, but many of their tough games were intraweek when the good teams would use lesser pitchers against them).


Hairps addressed this too. As I mentioned above, UNCC's schedule was ranked #43 in the nation while Webb's team was 40-something as well. I don't see how the opposing pitcher would matter to Mills' results.

Regardless, I'd be a lot more interested in comparing Mills to other guys who got great results in college with an 88-90 MPH fastball. That other stuff was just for fun, I assume.
   41. MM1f Posted: June 13, 2007 at 02:39 AM (#2402238)
"Hairps addressed this too. As I mentioned above, UNCC's schedule was ranked #43 in the nation while Webb's team was 40-something as well. I don't see how the opposing pitcher would matter to Mills' results."

Well, bigtime teams usually let some reserve hitters play in midweek games too. The whole atmosphere of a midweek game is (usually) much different from that of a weekend series, especially once conference play starts. Then weekend series get really intense and midweek games seem to get even slacker.
   42. MM1f Posted: June 13, 2007 at 02:41 AM (#2402245)
Also worth noting is Mills himself wouldnt pitch against many of the better teams Charlotte faced. For example when they went to UNC, a top 5 team, Mills did not pitch as the coaching staff elected to save him for the conference game against a much lesser team, as that game was more important to CHarlotte.
   43. Darren Posted: June 13, 2007 at 02:50 AM (#2402281)
Well, bigtime teams usually let some reserve hitters play in midweek games too. The whole atmosphere of a midweek game is (usually) much different from that of a weekend series, especially once conference play starts. Then weekend series get really intense and midweek games seem to get even slacker.


Really? That sounds just plain wrong on so many levels. No wonder college baseball is not closely followed by anyone but Nicholas from Eight is Enough. Merle the Pearl!
   44. MM1f Posted: June 13, 2007 at 02:57 AM (#2402299)
"Really? That sounds just plain wrong on so many levels."

Its not as if theyre running out a joke of a lineup, its still mostly starters, but when you want to give your main pinch-hitter and your glove guy utility man or your backup catcher some reps to keep them fresh that is when you do it usually.

College baseball is built around the weekend series and once conference play starts its those games you need to win to get to the postseason. Losing one game to NC A&T won't really hurt your postseason odds as long as you take care of business on the weekend, and beating them won't help you at all.
   45. Darren Posted: June 13, 2007 at 02:59 AM (#2402306)
Oh, it sounded much worse in your previous post. I guess it's not that bad then.
   46. MM1f Posted: June 13, 2007 at 03:18 AM (#2402340)
I don't say that to take away from Mills by the way. Hes a hell of a pitcher, and showed in Regionals hes a big game pitcher and could pitch for anyone in the country.
His first half, in particular, was about as great as you will see a college pitcher pitch.

By the way, looking through Charlottes sched I'm not really sure how they got up to the 40s in SoS.
A series with Charleston, a midweek vs Carolina and 2 midweeks vs Wake is really all thats there.
LeMoynes alright I guess, theyre a tournament team with a few great players (Bobby Blevins and Andy Parrino) but theyre nothing much.
VaTechs, who they played 2 midweeks against, is a pretty bad ACC team, but at least theyre ACC
Boyds SoS must be calculated after regionals, where they get credit for playing NC State and South Carolina a few times

Anyway, back to your discussion..
   47. Darren Posted: June 13, 2007 at 03:53 AM (#2402384)
Interesting stuff MM1f. You'll be sorry that you doubted him when Mills is the next Greg Maddux. See, he doesn't throw hard but he gets results and therefore he's the next Greg Maddux! Just like Suppan was.
   48. MM1f Posted: June 13, 2007 at 06:34 AM (#2402426)
Who said I was doubting him? I think he was an amazing college pitcher.
   49. Darren Posted: June 14, 2007 at 12:04 AM (#2403103)
Stole this from SOSH:

#36 Middlebrooks (174)
#42 Grandal (834)
#46 Dent (62)
#60 Hagadone (55)
#62 Tepesch (864)
#132 Morris (84)
#170 Mailman (234)
#174 Bailey (504)
#196 Keowen (294)
   50. philly Posted: June 14, 2007 at 12:08 AM (#2403114)
You should have waited a bit and stolen the correction too. ;)

9 Sox draft picks were listed among Baseball America's top 200. Here is how they were ranked by BA compared to where they were selected by the Sox:

#36 Middlebrooks (174)
#42 Grandal (834)
#46 Dent (62)
#60 Hagadone (55)
#62 Tepesch (864)
#132 Morris (84)
#170 Mailman (234)
#174 Bailey (504)
#196 Keowen (294)

You missed one: Justin Grimm #178 (414).
   51. ChadBradfordWannabe Posted: June 14, 2007 at 12:11 AM (#2403119)
Thanks for the ideas fellas. I will certainly take a look at them.

Sneak peek one some of what I wrote that should be done by tomorrow....

Uninspiring pick here at #4. So much so that I don't really feel like making a video clip of his motion. On the positive side, I like that he's aggressive ( I like max effort guys), and his arm action is pretty good. With a high 3/4 slot, he throws the ball downhill very well and his velocity is excellent. The problem is that his lower body action and momentum (tempo) don't really help him to throw hard, so he's more of an "arm-thrower." Couple that with an abrupt-ish finish and it makes me question how long he'll last. With plenty of better talent available, I don't get this pick here. I want upside at #4 I guess. Rush him and rush him quickly because a guy like this probably doesn't have as many bullets left as someone with better mechanics.

Anyone else feel this way about Moskos?
   52. Xander Posted: June 14, 2007 at 12:18 AM (#2403136)
I do. But I think you posted in the wrong thread.
   53. ChadBradfordWannabe Posted: June 14, 2007 at 02:11 AM (#2403400)
oops....
   54. Darren Posted: June 15, 2007 at 02:39 AM (#2404701)
What's the Rob English story, please.
   55. Xander Posted: June 15, 2007 at 02:49 AM (#2404716)
Do you mean in general or with this draft?
   56. Darren Posted: June 15, 2007 at 02:50 AM (#2404717)
According to Sox Prospects, Mills and Keowen have signed and will go to Lowell. Mills seems a bit old and polished to start there. But I guess they just want to get his feet wet this year.
   57. Darren Posted: June 15, 2007 at 02:50 AM (#2404719)
In general. Who is he? Why does he get a pick in the first couple rounds and I don't? What sort of player does he go for?
   58. Xander Posted: June 15, 2007 at 03:00 AM (#2404726)
He was some sexy scout the Sox brought over from the Braves. He's kinda gained a reputation, fairly or unfairly, as some divo scout who demands one of his players be taken in the first few rounds. For the Braves he signed Kyle Davies, Blaine Boyer, Macay McBride, and Adam Wainwright. There might be some others which I think Philly can fill you in on. I think that technically he is the Georgia scout, but he signed Jason Place who was from South Carolina, so I don't know how strict that is.

For the Sox he has signed:

Chad Spann
Matt Murton
Mickey Hall
Brandon Moss
Scott White
Jon Egan
Mike Rozier
Jason Place

Make of that list what you will.
   59. philly Posted: June 15, 2007 at 03:33 AM (#2404735)
The Sox took a ton of GA players in 2002 which was English's first draft with the Sox and the first post-Duquette/Harrington draft and people really latched onto him in that first year. And even after Epstein took over they've continued to draft and sign a bunch of players that he scouted.

I was going to wait until after this draft signing period - which ironically seems to be a bit light on English players - to fully update and post it, but I've put together a table of Epstein era scouts by signing bonus money. So far between 2003-2006 the Sox have signed 13 English players for 5.5M. The next two scouts are at ~2.9M and then it drops way off. If money spent is a good proxy of what the front office thinks of an area scout - seems like a reasonable assumption - then the Sox FO seems to really think hghly of English although as Temple implies his Sox track record is a bit of a mixed bag.

Oh, and so far the Epstein Sox have signed 7 draft picks for 7 figures and 3 of those players - Rozier, Murton and Egan - were English picks. They've put a lot of money into his recommended picks.
   60. Xander Posted: June 15, 2007 at 03:43 AM (#2404738)
You mean Place instead of Egan?
   61. philly Posted: June 15, 2007 at 03:50 AM (#2404740)
Yup.

Oh, and I forgot English's most famous signing of them all - John Rocker!
   62. Xander Posted: June 15, 2007 at 03:52 AM (#2404741)
He certainly seems to lean towards a certain complexion.
   63. Hairps Posted: June 16, 2007 at 02:22 AM (#2405888)
Whoa, the whole Mills/Webb thing got out of hand.

I just thought it was cool that they were taken with almost the exact same pick and induce groundballs at a similar rate.

I should have just said "cool" instead "interesting."

As an aside, I think the whole level of competition faced thing should be looked at on an AB-by-AB basis.
   64. Robert S. Posted: June 17, 2007 at 04:27 AM (#2406775)
I wouldn't put much stock in Webb's college numbers because he didn't learn the sinker until after college:
Webb, whose 2.44 ERA ranked third in the National League, discovered the pitch while playing at Class A South Bend, Ind. He was encouraged to keep working on it by his pitching coach, Royal Clayton, the older brother of former Diamondbacks shortstop Royce Clayton.
   65. philly Posted: June 26, 2007 at 04:19 AM (#2418019)
Here's a link about the scouts who, well, scouted the Sox 2007 draft picks.

link

Will try to post a followup on bonus allocation for scouts in the Epstein era tomorrow night.
   66. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: June 26, 2007 at 11:12 AM (#2418170)
Jason Place

Uggghhh.

They gave him 1.3 million dollars, yet they gave Che-Hsuan Lin 350k. I'd rather have 3 Lin's rather than one place.

Yes, the system needs really young really athletic and toolsy players, but why spend a 1st round pick and 1.3 million dollars on a guy (who has some obvious holes in his game), when all you had to do was go to Asia and find one for less than a third of the price?

Either the front office made a really bad call, or they're just racist. *ducks*
   67. villageidiom Posted: June 26, 2007 at 11:41 AM (#2418171)
Or there's an inefficient agent - er, I mean market - in Asia.
   68. Josh Posted: June 26, 2007 at 11:44 AM (#2418173)
There is only one Lin, and they signed him. And Place. What was the Red Sox bad call?
   69. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: June 26, 2007 at 03:27 PM (#2418319)
And Place. What was the Red Sox bad call?


Picking Place in the first place. You can get your toolsy players from elsewhere, why not pick I don't know, non-longshots with the draft?
   70. Josh Posted: June 26, 2007 at 05:18 PM (#2418459)
It just strikes me as an odd indictment of the Red Sox 2006 draft. Place was one of the few super-toolsey position players they drafted. Bates, Still and Deagas certainly were not. Anderson really is "toolsey," as he is a 1B who will stick only with his glove. The 2006 draft, like the 2007 one, is really a mixture of longshots and non-longshots. You may like or dislike the actual players taken, but the draft was certainly a mixture of upside and certainty.

I suppose you could just not like Place. I'm no draft maven, so what do I know, but I happened to think that it was a fun pick -- he has significantly different (and in many ways, better) tools than Lin, so they weren't comparable. For example, I don't think anyone expects Lin to develop Place's power (and few expect Place to be as speedy). But, in all events, having more toolsey guys considering the current state of the Red Sox system (Jeff Natale, for example) is better, not worse.
   71. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: June 27, 2007 at 11:55 AM (#2419465)
I agree with you in that the Red Sox need toolsy prospects (which is why I wantet to keep Hanley, he was toolsey)

Wat I'm saying is that "toolsy" players seem to cost more in the draft than International Free Agents that are toolsy. So we shoudl acquire our "toolsy" prospects via IFAs (Lin, Hanley, etc.), and then use our draft picks to pick guys like Pedroia.
   72. villageidiom Posted: July 06, 2007 at 06:07 PM (#2431191)
Not sure where to put this, but... Did you know Dwight Evans was drafted as a 3B? That Wade Boggs was drafted as a SS, and wasn't even the first SS drafted by Boston that year? Do you know the 18 players drafted ahead of Roger Clemens in 1983?

Neither did I. But BB-Ref has added draft pages.

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