Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Sox Therapy > Discussion
Sox Therapy
— Where Thinking Red Sox Fans Obsess about the Sox

Monday, August 20, 2018

Finishing Up - The Sox Therapy Concernometer

With 37 games to go starting tonight the Sox have done exactly what they wanted to over the first four and a half months winning games at a staggering rater (.704) and building a rather pleasant 9 1/2 game lead in the division.  As any Red Sox fan will tell you, until the magic number equals zero nothing is definite but the way the Sox have played this year I think any concern about protecting the lead is more relative to the Yankees getting white hot than the Sox slumping.  That is not to say there are not areas of concern and what is Sox Therapy if not a place to panic.  Let’s look at a few areas;

The Bullpen - Concern Level: Schiraldi - Maybe it is just me but this bullpen is terrifying and not in the Nasty Boys way.  Craig Kimbrel looked strong Friday night for the first time in a couple of weeks but even if you assume that he will be fine given his history there is not a lot behind him.  Matt Barnes has more than a bit of the Scott Williamson to him, he doesn’t throw as many strikes as I would like to see but he also gets the strikeouts and does not give up many hits so it usually doesn’t hurt him.  After Barnes though…I’m not sure.  This would be my ranking of the bullpen guys beyond these two right now;

Heath Hembree
Ryan Brasier
Brandon Workman
Hector Velazquez
Tyler Thornburg
Joe Kelly

And anyone who knows me knows that I don’t really trust Hembree.  I do think there is a potential X factor out there in the form of Nathan Eovaldi.  Assuming health in the rotation he is the guy I would like to see out there.  I think he can be an impact arm but this bullpen is not a group that I feel comfortable with right now.

Chris Sale - Concern Level: Reardon - Given how good and how important he is one can’t help but think “uh oh” with this second DL stint.  At the same time he was so dominant in his return that there is a feeling that with the big lead the Sox are just saying “hey, we ain’t screwing around.”  There seems to be an element of Pedro Martinez in Sale (beyond the whole being awesome thing) where he just isn’t going to give you 30 great starts but let him have 25 starts and accept that he needs a month long vacation at some point.  I won’t be surprised if Sale isn’t activated until after rosters expand and ideally the Sox will be able to ride home to a division title without being pressed.

Rafael Devers - Concern Level: Drew - It’s a learning curve at the big league level.  Guys go from prospects to “why won’t these morons call him up” to “what a bust, trade him” in the blink of an eye.  The Sox have ridden this rollercoaster with Pedroia, Buchholz, Lester and Bogaerts to name a few.  Like Sale I expect Devers to get an extended break and let that hamstring calm down.  Hammies are notoriously fickle and guys often find injuries there to recur in short order so letting Devers get back to 100% is the right call.  As for his performance, yeah it’s been up and down to say the least but I think Devers has shown enough to feel confident in.  With Kinsler’s return, Holt and Nunez the Sox have options not to mention the delightful wild card options of Steve Pearce and even Mookie Betts though the latter is probably a World Series road game only situation.

The Schedule - Concern Level: Tomato Can - The Sox have benefitted from a tomato can schedule (h/t Dan Shaughnessy) going 51-15 against teams under .500.  Only Cleveland (51-25) has played more games against sub-.500 teams (the Yankees are third with 64, 42-22).  However, the Sox have also pounded the good teams going an MLB-best 37-22 against teams over .500.  Simply put, the Sox are a very good baseball team (where would you be without this sort of insight?) and should be expected to continue to succeed.

Overall Concern Level: 2017 - Like last year I have little concern about the Sox falling apart.  This team is too good and too deep for that to be likely.  The only catch is that the Yankees could potentially get hot, something they have done previously this year and I expect that the race will get closer as August becomes September but the Sox should see it out, hopefully a bit easier than last year.

WAG for the rest of the schedule (88-37);
vs. Cleveland (2-2)
@ Tampa Bay (1-2)
vs. Miami (2-0)
@ CWS (2-2)
@ Atlanta (1-2)
vs. Houston (1-2)
vs. Toronto (2-1)
vs. NYM (2-1)
@ NYY (1-2)
@ Cleveland (1-2)
vs. Baltimore (2-1)
vs. NYY (2-1)

Jose sayeth: 107-55

Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: August 20, 2018 at 01:16 PM | 81 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Related News:

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. villageidiom Posted: August 20, 2018 at 07:50 PM (#5730454)
So what you're saying is their final 37 games they'll go 19-18.

19-18.

1918.

(sigh)
   2. The Yankee Clapper Posted: August 20, 2018 at 09:04 PM (#5730488)
Never too early to worry about the playoffs.
   3. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: August 20, 2018 at 09:05 PM (#5730489)
I guess it speaks to the good news this century that that never even dawned on me.
   4. Chip Posted: August 20, 2018 at 09:29 PM (#5730497)
He’s just projecting his worry that the Yankees may end up going on the road to face Verlander in the wild card game.
   5. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: August 20, 2018 at 09:33 PM (#5730499)
I was responding to vi. It’s nice to see YC here, I’ve been worried about our Yankee friends, they’ve been oddly quiet for some reason.
   6. The Yankee Clapper Posted: August 20, 2018 at 09:59 PM (#5730506)
If you guy's are going to stop obsessively worrying about the Red Sox - a mild vice, at worst - I'm concerned with what you'll do with all that free time.
   7. villageidiom Posted: August 21, 2018 at 12:09 AM (#5730535)
Your eternal concern is again noted.
   8. Nasty Nate Posted: August 21, 2018 at 09:14 AM (#5730583)
There seems to be an element of Pedro Martinez in Sale (beyond the whole being awesome thing) where he just isn’t going to give you 30 great starts....
Hey! Pedro gave 29+ starts. Tough crowd.
   9. jmurph Posted: August 21, 2018 at 09:46 AM (#5730597)
So what you're saying is their final 37 games they'll go 19-18.

It's deeply stupid and amazing that they could go barely .500 over that long of a stretch and still finish with 107 wins.
   10. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: August 21, 2018 at 09:47 AM (#5730598)
DOOMED!
   11. jmurph Posted: August 21, 2018 at 09:48 AM (#5730600)
As to the main point of Jose's post, I'm only actually concerned about the bullpen come playoff time, and I'd say I'm fairly concerned about that. But the offense is going to hit, and I'm confident enough in Sale/Price/Porcello to string together enough quality outings.
   12. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: August 21, 2018 at 10:17 AM (#5730618)
11 - Yeah, that's kind of my feeling too. I really am warming to Eovaldi as reliever option.

8 - But a couple of his starts were usually kind of bad because he was hurt so I'm right! (dammit give me this one).
   13. Nasty Nate Posted: August 21, 2018 at 10:25 AM (#5730623)
BTW, Casey Kelly is back in the big leagues. Former minor-league teammate of his Rey Fuentes was in the majors last year, but has been in AAA all year.
   14. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: August 21, 2018 at 10:32 AM (#5730628)
I'm concerned if Sale is ineffective or hurt. I have no faith in Porcello giving them quality postseason innings.

Otherwise, they look great.
   15. Textbook Editor Posted: August 21, 2018 at 11:46 AM (#5730690)
I'm concerned if Sale is ineffective or hurt. I have no faith in Porcello giving them quality postseason innings.


Yeah, this is where I'm at. It could be there's 4th dimensional chess going on here and they're easing Sale into the playoffs when he's not really hurt, but I'm not sure I buy it. I'm not overly concerned, but I am somewhat concerned he may be a 5-6 inning SP come the playoffs because they don't want to push him (and then miss a round of the playoffs, potentially), and given the state of the pen that's not good.

Porcello is what he is: a #3 starter who will occasionally flash #1 stuff... and occasionally look like a BP pitcher and give up 2-3 HRs a game for a 5 start stretch. That's not a guy that should be anywhere near a Game 1/Game 2 start in the playoffs, but he may well have to depending on Sale.

A lot is going to depend on what--if anything--they get out of Eovaldi/Johnson/EdRod/Wright these last 6 weeks, and if they can (potentially) do what Houston did last year and piggy-back a starter after a starter in games as a bridge to Barnes/Kimbrell. Certainly Cora is aware of that type of strategy coming from Houston.

I'm not *as* concerned about the offense taking a dive--especially if it works out that the first 2 games of any series are at Fenway--but you could see them getting 0-fers from 2B, 3B, C, and CF in multiple games in the SSS of the playoffs (naturally that could be said about any team) and if combined with a craptastic start or two... well, a repeat of last year's Houston series wouldn't be farfetched.
   16. TomH Posted: August 21, 2018 at 01:25 PM (#5730776)
Bullpen concern? Every team's fans seems to have bullpen concerns (sort of like many fans think their manager is a stool). The Sawx pen seems about as good as most others. And with all of the hoopla about great bullpens in October, Stuff Happens in the playoffs, and the Astros seemed to be OK last year with a Concerning Bullpen; I am now watching the 2017 WS on DVD, and you can't believe how often Buck and Smoltz keep saying the Dodgers will win if it gets to a bullpen game (which of course, it most often did!).
Sale's health is the biggest thing. If he gets to start 30% of their post-season games, they have maybe a 1-6 shot for a trophy. If he's out, they are suddenly underdogs to most of the AL playoff teams.
   17. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: August 23, 2018 at 07:25 PM (#5732576)
THe Sox have done this a few times this year. The series in Houston where they lost the first two then won the last two, the first series in New York where they lost the first two then won the last game, now this one. I guess “good team wins games” isn’t exactly much of a tale but it’s been encouraging that when they’ve had tough starts to series they’ve bounced back against good teams.

In other news Christian Vazquez went on the DL on July 7. Since then Blake Swihart is hitting 286/.327/.449.
   18. Joe Bivens is NOT a clueless numpty Posted: August 23, 2018 at 07:33 PM (#5732581)
19-18? That's some fine pants pissing. I say they get to 110, pretty easily. They'll win 2 of 3 in Tampa, 2 of 3 against the Yankees, 3 of 4 against the White Sox. They should sweep Baltimore.
   19. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: August 23, 2018 at 10:24 PM (#5732683)
I don’t hate that 19-18 can reasonably be viewed as pants pissing. This is a pretty decent team.
   20. SoSH U at work Posted: August 23, 2018 at 11:39 PM (#5732739)
They've still haven't lost more three straight, which I believe would match the all-time single-season low (accomplished by a few teams, including the 06 Cubs and 32 Yanks).

   21. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: August 23, 2018 at 11:53 PM (#5732741)
And the 2013 Red Sox.
   22. SoSH U at work Posted: August 24, 2018 at 12:06 AM (#5732745)

And the 2013 Red Sox.



I didn't realize that (or had forgotten it). That's pretty amazing for a team that had 65 losses.
   23. Joe Bivens is NOT a clueless numpty Posted: August 24, 2018 at 06:33 AM (#5732766)
Has there been another 37 game stretch where they were only 1 game over 500? Why now? Why would a team playing near .700 ball for 80% of the season all of a sudden drop to .500 for the remaining 20%?
   24. jmurph Posted: August 24, 2018 at 09:24 AM (#5732806)
Has there been another 37 game stretch where they were only 1 game over 500? Why now? Why would a team playing near .700 ball for 80% of the season all of a sudden drop to .500 for the remaining 20%?

Well the obvious answer is a teamwide Hand Foot and Mouth outbreak.
   25. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: August 24, 2018 at 09:38 AM (#5732816)
Has there been another 37 game stretch where they were only 1 game over 500? Why now? Why would a team playing near .700 ball for 80% of the season all of a sudden drop to .500 for the remaining 20%?

Well the obvious answer is a teamwide Hand Foot and Mouth outbreak.


That and, 'Oh hey, he's a touch sore, to the 10-day DL! Cause, why not?' Reference 'Sale, Chris' and 'Devers, Rafael' if you are looking for examples (although I am inclined to think Devers really *does* need the time off).
   26. SoSH U at work Posted: August 24, 2018 at 09:53 AM (#5732825)
Has there been another 37 game stretch where they were only 1 game over 500? Why now? Why would a team playing near .700 ball for 80% of the season all of a sudden drop to .500 for the remaining 20%?


If the Yankees founder over the next month, we could see the organizational indifference to winning that characterized late-stages 2007 (the dawn of the pants pissers, IIRC).
   27. jmurph Posted: August 24, 2018 at 10:43 AM (#5732859)
Was hoping Betts would get to 30-30 (meaningless but fun), but I doubt he'll push for the 6 stolen bases needed too much over the next month+. He only had 4 in all of August.
   28. jmurph Posted: August 24, 2018 at 10:45 AM (#5732860)
My main concern at this point has shifted from the bullpen to the disruption in clubhouse chemistry at David Price's newfound status as best pitcher of all time. How will Sale handle it? Will he cut up Price's jersey? Will Kimbrel be angry about the total lack of save opportunities?
   29. Joe Bivens is NOT a clueless numpty Posted: August 24, 2018 at 03:19 PM (#5733195)
(the dawn of the pants pissers, IIRC).


Yeah, 2007 good times! "Pants pissers" was a term of bemused endearment, and still is. HOW CAN ANYONE WORRY ABOUT THIS TEAM? They may lose in the end, sure, because the playoffs are a crapshoot, but they are just so good. They have a great chance of winning it all this year.
Will Kimbrel be angry about the total lack of save opportunities?


Thornburg almost pitched them into one yesterday. I wasn't pants pissing over it, not with a 7 run lead.
   30. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: August 26, 2018 at 01:27 PM (#5733835)
Honestly the post was meant as a recognition that I’m not particularly concerned but it’s safe to say this week has gone poorly.
   31. Chip Posted: August 26, 2018 at 02:10 PM (#5733849)
I’ve been impressed with the sheer volume of 0-2 count failure by the pitchers in the Tampa series.

And there’s another 0-2 bloop by Kirmaier off a terrible pitch.

Today’s lineup coming off consecutive losses, and 2-4 on the week, definitely fits the organizational indifference theme of ‘07.
   32. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: August 26, 2018 at 04:03 PM (#5733889)
Depending on your selective end points this is really good or really bad. On the one hand, the Yankees made up 4 games (assume they win tonight and tomorrow given the competition) in a week. Conversely, the Sox have held the same lead they had at the beginning of the Yankee series. They are still in good shape, I'm not sure where Joe got the idea I was pants pissing at all, I wasn't and I'm not. Pretending everything was/is perfect is a fool's errand but other than the bullpen there isn't really anything to be concerned about. The biggest problem honestly is the Yankee schedule is very weak (roughly the Sox' in July) so while I don't expect this weekend to be anything more than a blip on the Sox' performance chart the Yankees can get very hot here. I really think 104 is a bare minimum to win the division and that's probably low.
   33. The Yankee Clapper Posted: August 26, 2018 at 04:09 PM (#5733894)
I don't expect this weekend to be anything more than a blip on the Sox' performance chart . . .

So, you're saying it's over?
   34. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: August 26, 2018 at 04:30 PM (#5733908)
The biggest problem honestly is the Yankee schedule is very weak (roughly the Sox' in July)

Take a peek at the Yankees' DL list and I think the Hub will sleep soundly tonight. Save those worries for the playoffs if Judge, Sanchez, Didi and Chapman are back in full form, and Severino has rediscovered his command.

And if any Royal Rooter still need a Sominex lollipop, the Yankees will be warming up for their final weekend in Fenway with a 4 game series in the Trop, while the Sox are playing host to the Orioles. It won't be over till it's over, but right now the Sox are still a mortal lock to win the division.

   35. Joe Bivens is NOT a clueless numpty Posted: August 26, 2018 at 05:22 PM (#5733926)
Take a peek at the Yankees' DL list and I think the Hub will sleep soundly tonight.


Yeah no #### I mean they're a shell of a team right now. If the Red Sox go .500 the rest of the way the Yankees have only a mathematical chance of winning. The Yankees are more likely to fall out of the playoffs than win the division.

I'm not sure where Joe got the idea I was pants pissing at all,


As I said, it's a term of bemused affection.


However, sentences like
Depending on your selective end points this is really good or really bad.
make me scratch my head. Those endpoints have nothing to do with this race. Games remaining and injuries, as always, tell the tale. The race is over. They won't pull a 2011.
   36. Joe Bivens is NOT a clueless numpty Posted: August 26, 2018 at 05:24 PM (#5733929)

So, you're saying it's over?


I am. Are you saying it isn't? (This isn't 2011.)
   37. The Yankee Clapper Posted: August 26, 2018 at 06:11 PM (#5733943)
I am. Are you saying it isn't? (This isn't 2011.)

Well, if you say so, but I've been told that The Baseball Gods keep track of such statements.
   38. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: August 26, 2018 at 06:55 PM (#5733953)
The race is over. They won't pull a 2011.


Well sure, it's not likely but still there is probability. Would I bet my house on it...no, would I bet $10K on it, sure why not.

I, and I must admit, was pretty much in line with Ray in 2011; I was convinced that they could not lose that lead.

They aren't looking great right now, however there is enough talent there that even without performing well that should scratch out enough wins next week to appease any fears of disaster.
   39. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: August 26, 2018 at 07:17 PM (#5733960)
Like I’ve said, my concern isn’t that the Sox are going to fall apart, my concern is the Yankees are going to get hot. They are good even with the missing talent, their schedule is weak and they are getting some of these people back.

As for the Sox this has been one of those weeks. As John Tomase noted, every team in baseball history has them. The Sox had won or split 14 consecutive series (10-0-4) and hadn’t been swept all year.

In what I’m sure is statistically meaningful the Sox have been swept both years of the Players Weekend.
   40. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: August 26, 2018 at 08:30 PM (#5733990)
In what I’m sure is statistically meaningful the Sox have been swept both years of the Players Weekend.


Well that in conjunction with the hideous uniforms is enough reason to end this folly and move away from this in years to come.
   41. Joe Bivens is NOT a clueless numpty Posted: August 27, 2018 at 07:48 AM (#5734073)
The Yankees do not have an easy September. They play Oakland, Seattle and Minnesota on the road. They play the Red Sox home and away. They play the suddenly hot Tampa at home. They'll be lucky to be 2 or 3 games over .500 the rest of the way.

edit...and who the #### is John Tomase and why do we care what he writes/says?
   42. Joe Bivens is NOT a clueless numpty Posted: August 27, 2018 at 08:04 AM (#5734078)
Well, if you say so, but I've been told that The Baseball Gods keep track of such statements.


To be consistent, I don't believe in those gods, either.

I thumb my nose at those gods!! I tempt the fates!!

Funny (?) aside: I had a friend whose dad taught medieval philosophy at BC (and evidently practiced it at home). One day, we were going to some event, I forget which, and dad was warning my friend that we should be careful and stay out of harms way. My friend said "We're tempting the fates today", and his father exploded with anger. "DON'T SAY THAT!!" We left and laughed and laughed.

Some people and their superstitions!
   43. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: August 27, 2018 at 08:18 AM (#5734082)
The Yankees do not have an easy September. They play Oakland, Seattle and Minnesota on the road. They play the Red Sox home and away. They play the suddenly hot Tampa at home. They'll be lucky to be 2 or 3 games over .500 the rest of the way.

That likely depends on their roster strength and Severino's recovery. Don't forget that when they were running neck and neck with the Red Sox, their combined record against Boston/Cleveland/Houston/Seattle was 18 and 8.

That said, the realistic chance that they'll overtake the Red Sox is probably not much more than 1 in 20. What's going to be more important is what their roster looks like at the end of the season, and whether they can survive the wild card game.
   44. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: August 27, 2018 at 08:51 AM (#5734096)
and who the #### is John Tomase and why do we care what he writes/says?


Writer for WEEI.com. Kind of a putz but he's right of course. I don't really care what he writes but it's a good point, there is no reason to freak out over losing 5 out of 7 to good competition, these sorts of weeks happen.

The Yankees do not have an easy September. They play...Minnesota on the road.


Besides the fact that the Twins aren't very good this year aren't the Yankees something like 85-2 this decade against them? That West Coast trip, yeah that's a tough one for them. That could be pivotal.

You seem to think I'm expecting the Sox to collapse, I'm not. I expect them to win the division. But the idea that it's over is nonsense. There is a lot of baseball to be played.
   45. Joe Bivens is NOT a clueless numpty Posted: August 27, 2018 at 09:06 AM (#5734105)
I don't really care what he writes but it's a good point


Yeah, it's pretty obvious.
   46. TomH Posted: August 27, 2018 at 09:39 AM (#5734113)
a) it is not over, but it close to being over
b) one reasonable concern is the Sox will have little time to relax. There is probably at least a 1-in-5 chance the Yankees close to within 1-3 GB by the last weekend; where the teams go H2H. That means riding your main horses harder. Maybe not giving Sale the time off you would like to.
   47. Joe Bivens is NOT a clueless numpty Posted: August 27, 2018 at 11:09 AM (#5734158)
Maybe not giving Sale the time off you would like to.


They just gave him 20 days off.
   48. villageidiom Posted: August 28, 2018 at 01:49 PM (#5734923)
a) it is not over, but it close to being over
IT IS AUGUST. If both teams match each other win for win, loss for loss, then the Yankees wouldn't be eliminated from the division until the last week of the season. It is nowhere close to being over.
   49. TomH Posted: August 28, 2018 at 04:44 PM (#5735043)
what is "over" ; mathematically eliminated? Not how most would use that term.

If a team has >99% chance of winning the div in August, is that "over"? 'Cause if the Sox gain two games over NYY in the next 3 nights, their odds would be >99%, being 8.5 ahead with 27.5 to play. It would still be August. Gaining 2 in 3 days is "close".
   50. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: August 28, 2018 at 04:57 PM (#5735053)
Generally I find the odds at FanGraphs etc... to be laughable. I think they swing much too fast, much too soon and make far too many assumptions. For example, the Astros were 96% on June 30th to win the division despite only a 1.5 game lead. Now the Astros are very very good and the A's and Mariners are fairly pedestrian by comparison but with half a season to play anything can happen. We've seen it with the Astros, injuries and many other factors can come into play.

That same day the Nationals were 65% to win the division despite being 5 games back. All that stuff just makes too many assumptions about it's own intelligence. Has anyone ever studied those odds to find how accurate they are? I'd love to know the first day a team hits say 90% division/pennant likelihood and whether or not 9 out of 10 have actually won it.
   51. Nasty Nate Posted: August 28, 2018 at 05:09 PM (#5735060)
Cause if the Sox gain two games over NYY in the next 3 nights, their odds would be >99%, being 8.5 ahead with 27.5 to play.
That percentage seems too high.
   52. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: August 28, 2018 at 10:54 PM (#5735257)
Schiraldi might represent an upgrade to this bullpen right now.

As this game played out I found myself thinking of the Cleveland game that Vazquez had the walk off last year. That one had the same ups and downs and a bit of a freak ending (Moreland reached on a K-WP before Vazquez batted) too.
   53. villageidiom Posted: August 29, 2018 at 08:57 AM (#5735351)
what is "over" ; mathematically eliminated? Not how most would use that term.
I'd say it can be considered over when a reversal of standings would require all involved teams to do what they are clearly incapable of doing. So, for example, if NYY would have to go 29-1 in their last 30, AND Boston to go 6-24 or something, to switch places. The Yankees, as good as they are, are highly unlikely to win 29 of 30. Win streaks of 14+ games are rare, and putting two such streaks back-to-back, or one 20+ game streak coupled with another short streak, to get 29-1 is implausible. Boston, at their worst, can't be expected to win fewer than 7 games in their last 30. Put both of those situations together, and it's not happening. So if NYY were 24 games out right now I'd say it's over. It's not.

For NYY to take the division they'd need to go 24-6, with Boston going 16-13. Or something like that (e.g. 21-9 / 13-16). Both of those are plausible. If there's a plausible path, it's not over.
   54. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: August 29, 2018 at 09:01 AM (#5735353)
So selective end points etc...but since Cora gave JBJ three days off in a row in May he has hit .251/.327/.441. Whatever JBJ and Tim Hyers did those few days seems to have worked out.
   55. Joe Bivens is NOT a clueless numpty Posted: August 29, 2018 at 10:08 AM (#5735390)
The Yankees have 16 of those games against Boston, Seattle, Oakland and Tampa. If they go 8-8 in those games they'll be lucky. Then they'd have to run the table against all the rest. edit that's 22-8 The Red Sox would have to play sub-.500 ball to be overtaken.

Implausible.
   56. TomH Posted: August 29, 2018 at 10:19 AM (#5735398)
What is the biggest lead with 30 to play any team has ever overcome/blown in the history of MLB? Let's use 1G more than that for "it's over". To postulate a 22 game lead with 30 to play is bordering on insufficient is just silly.
   57. TomH Posted: August 29, 2018 at 10:22 AM (#5735400)
maybe the 1995 Angels?
   58. Nasty Nate Posted: August 29, 2018 at 10:24 AM (#5735402)
What is the biggest lead with 30 to play any team has ever overcome/blown in the history of MLB?
I think it should be biggest lead with 30 or less to play.
   59. SoSH U at work Posted: August 29, 2018 at 10:26 AM (#5735403)
What is the biggest lead with 30 to play any team has ever overcome/blown in the history of MLB? Let's use 1G more than that for "it's over". To postulate a 22 game lead with 30 to play is bordering on insufficient is just silly.



The Red Sox were up 7 with 30 left to play in 1978, though it never got larger.

The 2007 Mets were up 7 with 17 left to play, and lost it without a one-game playoff.

The 1964 Phils were up 6.5 with 13 left to play.


maybe the 1995 Angels?



Good call. The Angels were up 8 with 30 left, and still up 6 with 18 left.

   60. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: August 29, 2018 at 11:31 AM (#5735446)
Good call. The Angels were up 8 with 30 left, and still up 6 with 18 left.


The 2011 Sox were 9 games up on the Rays at the end of August with only 27 left to play. 7-20 later and they did not make the playoffs.
   61. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: August 29, 2018 at 11:36 AM (#5735450)
Jesus, you people are depressing me.
   62. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: August 29, 2018 at 11:52 AM (#5735456)
Jesus, you people are depressing me.


Pucker that butthole and prepare new pants!
   63. TomH Posted: August 29, 2018 at 12:54 PM (#5735507)
OK; I will say 10 up with 27 to play, or 9.5 up with 25, is "over".
   64. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: August 29, 2018 at 02:57 PM (#5735666)
Not to look too far ahead but the Sox announced their spring training schedule.
   65. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: August 29, 2018 at 03:07 PM (#5735676)
You're all going to be denied access to my pants pissing party in a few weeks when the Yankees are healthier and the Sox continue to scuffle towards the finish line and the lead is down to 4 games.
   66. jmurph Posted: August 29, 2018 at 03:24 PM (#5735694)
Not to look too far ahead but the Sox announced their spring training schedule.

Jose (and any others with experience): how far in advance (if at all) do you need to get tickets? I'm trying to coordinate a trip that might coincide with Spring Training this year and am hoping to catch a couple games (possibly not in Ft Myers, maybe when they're on the road).
   67. jmurph Posted: August 29, 2018 at 03:25 PM (#5735696)
You're all going to be denied access to my pants pissing party in a few weeks when the Yankees are healthier and the Sox continue to scuffle towards the finish line and the lead is down to 4 games.

I just don't have the heart for it post-World Series success, for the most part. A big part of me prefers to get the heartbreak out of the way in the regular season if they're not going to make a serious run (and if their bullpen is so bad that they cough up the division, I'm not sure October would be very much fun anyway!).
   68. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: August 29, 2018 at 03:34 PM (#5735704)
Jose (and any others with experience): how far in advance (if at all) do you need to get tickets? I'm trying to coordinate a trip that might coincide with Spring Training this year and am hoping to catch a couple games (possibly not in Ft Myers, maybe when they're on the road).


Like everything else ticket related it's a hell of a lot easier now than it used to be. They go on sale December 1 and I'll buy them that day. Some games (Yankees, Twins, maybe Astros) sell out fast and most games will eventually sell out.

Of course that ignores the whole StubHub thing. That's a nice fall back and if you are making the trip last minute (or just need to wait for your own schedule to clear up) you can do that. There will be a bit of a premium but I don't think it's crazy.

As I recall it's $32 for the best tickets combining view and price. Like you can get right behind the plate for $46 or $50 but the sightlines don't get appreciably worse if you move up and saving a few bucks.

Pro tip: 3rd base side > 1st base side. Unless you are in the first 3-4 rows the 3rd base line seats wind up in the shade. First base line seats will always be in the sun and it is tough. Green Monster seats are cool but again, you're exposed to the sun so plan accordingly. You can also sit inside the Monster behind the screen they have about halfway up. My parents did that this year and you still have issues with the sun if you are in the very first row. Also because it is enclosed there is no breeze so my mother said it really got stifling and they had to move around a bit.

It being spring training it's not a big deal. Have sunscreen with you and if you don't they have dispensers around the ballpark and bring a couple of bottles of water. There never seems to be a vendor with water walking around, I'm sure they're there but I rarely see them.
   69. jmurph Posted: August 29, 2018 at 03:38 PM (#5735706)
Thanks man, that's very helpful!
   70. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: August 29, 2018 at 03:54 PM (#5735729)
If you can use the first entrance when you arrive and keep to your left when you park ($10 I think). Get there about 10AM and go watch the minor leaguers do their thing. It's a lot of fun and there's a good chance you'll run into Tiant, Evans and a bunch of guys like that. Sadly no more Pesky of course and Yaz shows up on occasion though Yaz ain't the most sociable dude in the world. They offer tours (though I've only gotten them through the season ticket folks when I had those) and if you can get one it's well worth it, even hungover (ask me how I know).
   71. Joe Bivens is NOT a clueless numpty Posted: August 29, 2018 at 04:55 PM (#5735782)
Oh my. So panicky! Wearing piss soaked pants has to be uncomfortable. 3 teams lost big leads! OH MY!

This team hasn't lost 4 in a row all year. Price has been great since the AS break. Sale is returning. Eddie Rodriguez is returning. Devers will be back. The bats are booming. The Yankees pitching sucks. They also have injury issues on offense.

There is so much to be optimistic about. The team isn't perfect. No team is.
   72. villageidiom Posted: August 29, 2018 at 06:02 PM (#5735834)
3 teams lost big leads! OH MY!
They listed 3 teams that lost big leads. There are plenty more.

In 2011 both the Red Sox and the Braves lost big leads, the latter being a 7.5-game lead in the wild card.

In 2010 the Padres were up 6 in late August. They finished back 2.

In 2009 the Tigers were up 7 in early September on the Twins. The Twins tied on the final day and won the tiebreaker. Up to that point in early September the Twins had a losing record.

The 1969 Cubs were up by 5 at the start of September. They spent the rest of the season dropping 13 games in the standings. (This is a key point. They could have had a 12-game lead instead of 5, and still lost the division. I'm sure there have been teams with smaller leads who had more than a 7-game swing in the standings.)

THE GIANTS WON THE PENNANT! THE GIANTS WON THE PENNANT! THE GIANTS WON THE PENNANT! The Dodgers had been up by 7 games at the end of August.

There is so much to be optimistic about. The team isn't perfect. No team is.
I'm the one leading the "it's not over yet" brigade, and I agree on all these points. They are an excellent team and have build a decent lead with a month to go. I just wouldn't say it's over.
   73. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: August 29, 2018 at 07:09 PM (#5735883)
Vi makes the point well. I don’t think anyone here is panicking, just recognizing that there is a lot of baseball left to be played. You can say the Yankees are banged up and all but they’ve won 9 out of 11 or something like that and 15-7 since leaving Fenway. They are a good team, pretending they can’t get the 20 or so wins they need is foolish. Are the Sox heavy favorites? Of course, but not a lock and the issues on the mound are concerning.
   74. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: August 29, 2018 at 07:24 PM (#5735888)
the issues on the mound are concerning.


Well they are now! Price down 3-1 in the 3rd. Already given up 5 hits and 1HR. Even our "ace" is looking sh*t now. When is Sale coming back anyway?

Nothing ever comes really easy, does it?
   75. Chip Posted: August 29, 2018 at 07:44 PM (#5735897)
More importantly, Price out of the game after taking a line drive off his pitching arm wrist. They’re calling it a “contusion” but of course we haven’t heard an x-ray read yet. It certainly looked and sounded bad, although he did walk off the mound without showing any obvious pain, and made an impressive play covering 1st after the ricochet caromed to Pearce well off the bag..
   76. Chip Posted: August 29, 2018 at 08:44 PM (#5735946)
X-ray negative, but “further testing is needed.”
   77. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: August 29, 2018 at 08:54 PM (#5735959)
Great. I assume the plan to have the knuckleball out of the pen is about to change.
   78. villageidiom Posted: August 29, 2018 at 09:10 PM (#5735981)
I just want to point out that when I turned on the game they were down 5-3 going into the bottom of the 7th. You're welcome.

Be advised, however, that I won't be near a TV all weekend.
   79. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: August 29, 2018 at 09:35 PM (#5736007)
Do you have an iPhone? You can use my NESNGo subscription!
   80. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: August 29, 2018 at 09:58 PM (#5736024)
That as an annoying 6 1/ 2 innings and a very pleasant 2 innings.
   81. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: September 17, 2018 at 10:51 AM (#5745492)
vs. Cleveland (2-2)
@ Tampa Bay (1-2) (0-3)
vs. Miami (2-0)
@ CWS (2-2)
@ Atlanta (1-2)(3-0)
vs. Houston (1-2)
vs. Toronto (2-1)(3-0)
vs. NYM (2-1)

That works pretty well. I feel like the Sox haven't really played well during this stretch, they haven't had a lot of easy games but it probably says a lot about the quality of the team that they've gone 15-10 in a stretch where they haven't been impressive.

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Dynasty League Baseball

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
--
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

Decisions Decisions
(6 - 10:00pm, Sep 24)
Last: Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature

IT’S OVER
(7 - 4:31pm, Sep 23)
Last: Darren

11 Days Later
(89 - 10:40am, Sep 22)
Last: Nasty Nate

6,036 Days
(15 - 2:49pm, Sep 20)
Last: Nasty Nate

Finishing Up - The Sox Therapy Concernometer
(81 - 10:51am, Sep 17)
Last: Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature

11 Days To...Something
(49 - 12:28am, Sep 13)
Last: Nasty Nate

Extra Special
(43 - 1:01pm, Aug 20)
Last: villageidiom

What Do We Got?
(46 - 10:03am, Aug 15)
Last: Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature

Hope Springs Eternal (Sox Therapy Predictions)
(31 - 10:04am, Aug 06)
Last: villageidiom

Halfwayish Home
(81 - 7:00pm, Jul 31)
Last: Biff, highly-regarded young guy

Bigfoot, and Unicorns, and the Red Sox Bullpen
(31 - 8:32pm, Jul 14)
Last: dave h

It's Getting Drafty
(26 - 4:17pm, Jul 02)
Last: Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature

A Pleasant Trip So Far
(60 - 10:27am, Jul 01)
Last: John DiFool2

Where Are We?
(33 - 3:01pm, Jun 29)
Last: Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature

That Was Fun
(38 - 2:15pm, Jun 08)
Last: Darren

Syndicate

Page rendered in 0.5484 seconds
40 querie(s) executed