BBTF's Sox Therapy Discussion :: Game 1: Bullpen Hijinx

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201. Answer Guy Posted: April 08, 2012 at 06:25 PM (#4100585)

The Orioles are going to give up many more than they score. (Part of that is being stuck in the AL East of course.)

Beckett worries me. He was terrific most of last year, but has he ever had two good seasons in a row? Didn't see Buchholz today but the line was pretty brutal.

202. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: April 08, 2012 at 06:27 PM (#4100587)

I thought Buchholz was not that bad. I won't say he was great or anything but the first inning was a lot of ground balls that one or two of could have turned into outs then Peralta hit a bomb to center that was in the webbing of Ellsbury's glove. It was the type of game where had he gotten the right breaks we'd be saying "1 run over 6 innings but he caught some breaks" but after this it's "he was not as bad as it looks."

203. Drew (Primakov, Gungho Iguanas) Posted: April 08, 2012 at 06:44 PM (#4100598)

Not sure how you guys can even talk about it yet.

204. Dan Posted: April 08, 2012 at 06:45 PM (#4100599)

It's actually been a really disappointing opening series for a lot of good teams. Yankees, Red Sox, Braves, are all 0-3, and the Giants are 0-2 and trailing (after blowing a 6-0 lead). The Phillies are 1-2 after an opening series against the Pirates. The Angels are about to go down 1-2 after an opening series against the Royals, with Haren and Santana both getting shelled.

I think we all just need to remember it's early, and everything can still change with 2 or 3 more games.

If they start the season 0-6 like last year, I may become concerned.

205. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: April 08, 2012 at 07:02 PM (#4100607)

I'll go back to something I said earlier. Last year should have proved how meaningless the record is at this time and how meaningful each game is. Yes the losses have meaning but to Dan's point every team has something to worry about. If we were Yankee fans we'd be freaking out because Hiroki Kuroda can't handle the AL East.

In fairness my right hand still hurts from where I slapped the table when Avila's ball got out.

206. Dale Sams Posted: April 08, 2012 at 07:12 PM (#4100611)

I don't think that WAR value for relievers is done right. Some new system should be made. Used properly, I could almost justify paying Papelbon 15mill. But that's used right, not like Manual has been using him.

207. Dale Sams Posted: April 08, 2012 at 07:14 PM (#4100612)

In fairness my right hand still hurts from where I slapped the table when Avila's ball got out.

I thought it was just a long fly out because of how it looked, and the crowd wasn't quite freaking out...but then Don's voice started to scare me and the rest is history.

208. Dan Posted: April 08, 2012 at 07:15 PM (#4100613)

In fairness my right hand still hurts from where I slapped the table when Avila's ball got out.

I keep telling you people I WARNED you 5 minutes before it happened that it was going to happen. Go back in the thread and look! No one should have been shocked.

In all seriousness though, it didn't shock me just because I know Avila is a good low ball hitter, he's been hot and hitting the ball hard, and Melancon is a sinkerball type. So I kinda hedged myself against it psychologically, and hey, it happened.

209. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: April 08, 2012 at 07:26 PM (#4100616)

I keep telling you people I WARNED you 5 minutes before it happened that it was going to happen. Go back in the thread and look! No one should have been shocked.

I never listened to you before, why should I have started now? :-)

I'm trying to lose weight, how many calories does pacing burn?

210. FancyPantsHandle glistening with foreign substance Posted: April 08, 2012 at 07:32 PM (#4100618)

I'm trying to lose weight, how many calories does pacing burn?

#### all, or I'd be in the best shape of my life!

211. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: April 08, 2012 at 08:02 PM (#4100629)

Well ####, then they better start winning if this is just wasting my time!

212. Drew (Primakov, Gungho Iguanas) Posted: April 08, 2012 at 09:00 PM (#4100647)

Chances of brawl May 28: 100%

213. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: April 08, 2012 at 09:20 PM (#4100660)

So the Rays are 3-0 and the Yankees are 0-3. That basically eliminates any significant difference in their final projected records, right? Sicne the Yankees were projected 3-4 wins better?

Incidentally, this isn't right. Because the projections--presumably--included TB winning something like two out of three in this series, so at most they picked up a game.

214. Lassus Posted: April 08, 2012 at 09:35 PM (#4100665)

And here I thought I was soooooo clever to pick up Aceves.

Thanks for nothing, Sox Therapy.

215. FancyPantsHandle glistening with foreign substance Posted: April 08, 2012 at 09:36 PM (#4100667)

Incidentally, this isn't right. Because the projections--presumably--included TB winning something like two out of three in this series, so at most they picked up a game.

I would say the projections probably expected them to 'split' that series 1.5-1.5. Yankees are projected higher, so they should be slightly favored there, but HFA probably makes it close to a wash. That's assuming the rotations are similarly balanced.

Anyway, between the 2 of them, that's a 3 game swing, 1.5 fewer wins for the Yankees, 1.5 more for the Rays.

216. FancyPantsHandle glistening with foreign substance Posted: April 08, 2012 at 09:38 PM (#4100668)

And here I thought I was soooooo clever to pick up Aceves.

Thanks for nothing, Sox Therapy.

House rule: Fans of teams who are leading their division don't get to ######.

217. TVerik Posted: April 08, 2012 at 09:40 PM (#4100672)

So he'll be fine in a week or so?

218. FancyPantsHandle glistening with foreign substance Posted: April 08, 2012 at 10:30 PM (#4100704)

So he'll be fine in a week or so?

Optimist.

219. Dale Sams Posted: April 08, 2012 at 10:36 PM (#4100707)

Incidentally, this isn't right. Because the projections--presumably--included TB winning something like two out of three in this series, so at most they picked up a game.

Similar to this, I have the Sox going 10-12 in April, and they're already a game behind that.

220. Textbook Editor Posted: April 08, 2012 at 10:49 PM (#4100714)

FWIW, the Phillies lost today because Cholly wouldn't put Papelbon into a game against a RHB with runners at 1st and 2nd and two outs in the bottom of the 8th. The Phillies lost two games in a row on walk-offs and Papelbon didn't pitch at all in either. That seems a far stupider allocation of resources than anything that went on the past three games... Even if we got terrible results, the process is still sound. I really hope they don't panic and put Bard in the pen.

221. Lassus Posted: April 08, 2012 at 11:18 PM (#4100731)

House rule: Fans of teams who are leading their division don't get to ######.

Fair enough. (Although, to be clear, I was not ######## about reality.)

222. Dan Posted: April 09, 2012 at 01:09 AM (#4100786)

Even if we got terrible results, the process is still sound. I really hope they don't panic and put Bard in the pen.

This is where I'm at as well. I really do believe in Bard as a starter, and I would hate for him to miss the opportunity to show his potential as a darting pitcher due to circumstances outside of his control.

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