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   1. villageidiom Posted: August 29, 2016 at 02:28 PM (#5291757)
When you look at those needed records for that 89 number mark is that the Sox are the only team that simply needs to keep doing what they have been doing lately to get there.  Every other team needs to play better than they have been playing to get to that point. 


Adding another level of color to this... Which teams are most likely to outperform what they've done recently?

While I suppose we could argue that Boston will benefit from roster expansion more than other teams, my point earlier today in the other thread is that the depth isn't much of an improvement. I think a case could be made that the Yankees would benefit, assuming they empty out Scranton instead of keep everyone down there for the AAA playoffs. KC needing only a 1-game improvement on recent play is a worrisome thought.

I don't know about Baltimore. I mean, I know their pitching is crap. But they've been churning along all season despite that, and while I think earlier in the year the argument was they're not as good as they were playing I think the opposite argument is true now. They're not as bad as their 13-19 recent record would suggest. 18-14 doesn't seem outlandish. (checks schedule... 3 on the road in Detroit, 3 at home against Arizona, and then divisional play.) I stand by my statement.
   2. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: September 02, 2016 at 09:18 AM (#5294253)
Truthfully I don't think Baltimore is the team to beat. They've been under .500 since June 8. So given my track record put money on the Orioles.

Updating the chase for 89;

Toronto - 13-16
Boston - 15-14
Baltimore - 17-12
Detroit - 17-12
Houston - 18-11
New York - 20-10
Kansas City - 20-9
   3. villageidiom Posted: September 02, 2016 at 09:33 AM (#5294267)
...and the update to their recent record:
Toronto - 22-13
Boston - 19-16

Baltimore - 14-21
Detroit - 21-14
Houston - 17-18
New York - 20-16
Kansas City - 21-14

The ones in green have been recently playing at least as well as they need to play going forward.
   4. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: September 05, 2016 at 01:05 PM (#5295384)
This weekend went awfully well. I wouldn't have expected to gain ground with Toronto playing the Rays but the boys in Tampa did us a solid and no one picked up a sweep in the contender battles (Det-KCR/NYY-Bal) while Houston and Seattle both lost 2 of 3. Here's where it is now;

Toronto - 12-14
Boston - 13-13
Baltimore - 15-11
Detroit - 15-11
Houston - 17-9
New York - 19-8
Kansas City - 19-7
Seattle - 20-6

Would've been nice to win yesterday's game but seeing EdRod pitch so well was really encouraging. Also seeing Moncada this weekend, holy crap what a cannon. I think I'm going to enjoy that.
   5. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: September 08, 2016 at 12:24 AM (#5296754)
How about your first place Red Sox?!?!?! Latest and greatest

Boston 11-12
Toronto 12-11
Baltimore 13-10
Detroit 14-9
Houston 15-8
New York 16-8
Kansas City 17-6
Seattle 19-5 (good bye Mariners, 2-8 in their last ten ain't getting it done).
   6. villageidiom Posted: September 08, 2016 at 09:08 AM (#5296802)
...and the recent records:
Boston - 23-18
Toronto - 23-18

Baltimore - 18-23
Detroit - 24-17
Houston - 20-21
New York - 24-18
Kansas City - 24-17
Seattle - 20-20

EDIT: So over the last month and a half or so, Boston, Toronto, Detroit, NY, and KC have all been playing about as well as each other. But given where they are relative to each other in the race to 89, all of those teams treading water is good for the two teams in front.
   7. Bad Fish Posted: September 08, 2016 at 10:12 AM (#5296837)
And the record needed for 91....I'm guessing it will take 91 wins to take the division.

BOS - 13-10
TOR - 14-9
BAL - 15-8
NYY - 18-6

For all practical purposes, the NYY are out of the division and only vying for a WC berth, BAL really can't lose any more than two games to division rivals, and if Boston wins this Toronto series it will make it pretty hard for Toronto to win the division.

   8. villageidiom Posted: September 13, 2016 at 02:47 PM (#5299648)
Latest path to 89:

Boston 8-11
Toronto 10-9
Baltimore 11-8
Detroit 12-7
New York 13-6

Seattle 13-5
Houston 14-4
Kansas City 15-4

The teams in green have played roughly this pace or better in their last 20. Boston's last 20 includes San Diego and Oakland, so let's keep in mind that past results do not guarantee future performance.

Looking at the likelihood that each team finishes with 89 wins makes it seem like each team is closer to each other than they are. I did a quick sim (n=25) of the remaining schedules for each team, working with an assumption that each game is a coin flip. Here are the number of times each AL East contender wins the division:

BOS: 13 win, 3 tie
BAL: 4 win, 3 tie
TOR: 3 win, 2 tie
NYY: 0 win, 3 tie

One of those ties involves the Jays at 84 wins and the other 3 at 89. Yikes. The other two Yankees ties come at the expense of Boston, who would finish out of the wild card race. Boston would have to go 5-14 or worse to enable it.

Adding Detroit, here's the number of times each makes the playoffs or at least ties for a playoff spot, out of the 25 sims:

BOS: 21 (13 div wins, 3 div ties that guarantee a WC, 4 other outright WC spots, and 1 tie for 2nd WC)
BAL: 21 (4 div wins, 3 div ties that guarantee a WC, 9 other outright WC spots, and 5 ties for 2nd WC)
TOR: 21 (3 div wins, 2 div ties that guarantee a WC, 10 other outright WC spots, and 6 ties for 2nd WC)
DET: 14 (0 div wins, 0 div ties that guarantee a WC, 9 other outright WC spots, and 5 ties for 2nd WC)
NYY: 8 (0 div wins, 3 div ties that guarantee a WC, 3 other outright WC spots, and 2 ties for 2nd WC)

(Detroit is so low because they do not have a viable path that wins them the division.)

By relying on coin flips I'm ignoring how each team is playing currently. This means the biggest determinants are the remaining schedule and the current standings. The teams are roughly equivalent over the larger sample, but each has a compelling case why that shouldn't be the expectation going forward.

For example, here's a compelling case why Detroit should be expected to do better:

7 vs CLE
3 vs KC
6 vs MIN
3 vs ATL


Even if Boston runs away with the division, it looks like we're going to have 4 teams vying for a WC play-in game, which should be a fantastic finish.
   9. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: September 14, 2016 at 10:13 PM (#5300605)
To 89;

BOS - 8-9
BAL - 9-8
TOR - 10-7
NYY - 12-7

I have to admit, I'm feeling dread over the next eight days. I shouldn't be, the Sox have done nothing to make me feel that way but I just have this feeling that the Sox are due for a slump. This is definitely just completely illogical concern.
   10. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: September 14, 2016 at 11:42 PM (#5300630)
I have to admit, I'm feeling dread over the next eight days. I shouldn't be, the Sox have done nothing to make me feel that way but I just have this feeling that the Sox are due for a slump.


I now consider your pants totally saturated with urine.

The only thing that is going to cost the Red Sox over the next 2 weeks is a few poorly managed games by Farrell. I reckon he's cost the club about 5 wins this year(of course Showalter has probably gained about 5 wins this year) and I wouldn't be surprised to see a mismanagement of bullpen cost this team a win or 3 over the next 10 games.

Today's loss is what it is, but holy smokes, Porcello is pitching really well. As you said in a the omnichatter, sometimes you just get beat.

I'll panic if we go 3 back.
   11. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: September 15, 2016 at 08:39 AM (#5300683)

I now consider your pants totally saturated with urine.


Oh absolutely.
   12. villageidiom Posted: September 19, 2016 at 10:49 AM (#5302593)
To 89:

BOS 4-9
BAL 7-6
TOR 8-5
DET 10-3
SEA 10-3
HOU 11-2
NYY 12-1
KCR 13-0

green = played at least that well in their last 10 games
bold = played at least that well in their last 20 games

What the above says is that it's unlikely any of these teams, Boston and Baltimore aside, will get to 89 wins. (Baltimore still has 3 at home against the Diamondbacks.) But that second wild card will probably be won with 87 wins. Is it easier for Detroit or Seattle to go 8-5 than it is for Toronto to go 6-7?

Remaining opponents:
SEA: TOR, HOU, MIN, OAK
DET: CLE, KCR, MIN, ATL
TOR: BOS, BAL, SEA, NYY

Seems this series (TOR at SEA) is a good opportunity for either team. A sweep by Toronto would mean the Jays would need to go 3-7, and Seattle 8-2, to get to 87. A sweep by Seattle would mean the Jays would need to go 6-4, and Seattle 5-5, with the Mariners having the far easier remaining schedule. Anything in between gives Detroit an opportunity to gain on both.
   13. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: September 19, 2016 at 12:19 PM (#5302653)
If the Sox and the Cubs meet in the World Series, the Sox Therapy and Gonfalon Cubs threads should be combined.
   14. villageidiom Posted: September 19, 2016 at 01:24 PM (#5302708)
If the Sox and the Cubs meet in the World Series, the Sox Therapy and Gonfalon Cubs threads should be combined.
The last October post in Count The Rings™ was in 2007. Apparently they stopped counting.

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