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1. The Mohole* of David Wells (* - Piehole)Sox picked up Miguel Gonzalez in the Rule V.
Fun, but wrong.
JBH is right that Teixeira's really good, but the Red Sox would gain the least of just about any team in baseball by signing him, since we have good players at his position already. And if the Sox now don't sign Teixeira, we're looking at maybe spending piles of money on AJ Burnett in the hopes that one year his ERA will match his xFIP, or John Henry's just pocketing said piles of money? This is very hard to get excited about.
The bezt way to make sense of the Sox' moves is also depressing. They wouldn't have put all their energy into Teixeira if they weren't really worried about Lowell's and Papi's ability to recover from offseason surgery. (It's possible they just didn't like Sabathia, but that seems unlikely.) So, Teixeira is a big, clear upgrade if our best hitter or one of our good players actually isn't very good any more. That kinda sucks.
I go back and forth on Teixeira. If they're going to pay him 8/160 (or more), they have to either think Papi or Lowell are in a world of hurt or they have to feel that they can deal Lowell for value. Because both Papi and Lowell are valuable players on good contracts.
On Sabathia, I think the Sox are of the MGL mentality--long term contracts for pitchers are a trap. No matter how good a guy is, 7 years for a pitcher is very likely to be a bad deal. Now, I think the Yankees were brilliant in giving the opt-out--I would have suggested it even before CC did, if I were signing him, because the problem with the long-term deals is the later years. Tell me I get those first 3 years, which I'm pretty sure will be good, and I'm happy. I'm thrilled if he opts out.
And on the opt-out - I assume you're not arguing that the opt-out is a positive for the Yankees, but that it's being over-valued by Sabathia and his agent, who thus didn't demand as much real compensation as they should have? Because the opt-out certainly can't be a positive for the Yankees.
Wasn't giving Matsuzaka 6 years kind of a given? I thought that since he wasn't a free agent, that was pretty much the minimum length of contract he was going to get. I wonder if that's something of a special case.
EDIT: to clarify, if the Red Sox don't give out long-term contracts, then they wouldn't bit for Matsuzaka when he could only be had on a long-term contract. There's no difference here.
This seems strange to me. Looking back at other recent long-term contracts to ace pitchers, most teams would not be "thrilled" if the pitcher could opt-out after 3 years. Kevin Brown w/ Dodgers: borderline case, as he was hurt in 01 and might not have chosen to opt out, and if he did LA might have been happy. Pedro for Sox: we've got to assume that he would have opted out after 2000 and been offered a gazillion dollars per year as a free agent, the Sox assuredly would not be thrilled with him having that option. AJ Burnett: Blue Jays shouldnt be happy he opted out, if he didnt have that option but the Jays didnt want him, he definitely would have positive trade value this offseason. Mike Mussina: the first 3 years of his long NY contract ended after 2003, maybe he wouldnt have chosen to opt out, doubtful the yankees would have wanted him to at the time. Barry Zito: obviously wouldn't opt out if he had the option.
what other long SP contracts am i forgetting.
Hampton, wouldn't have opted out.
I don't know. I think there's a difference between a 6/$8M AAV contract and a 7/$23M AAV contract in terms of flexibility with the last year or two. I don't know if that's a lot of difference, especially since Matsuzaka may have a no-trade, but it may be enough of a difference to the FO to be an important factor. I wonder if they sometimes make a fetish of flexibility, though.
I don't think the Yanks lose nearly as much if you think they do if Sabathia opts out. They get rid of all the risk of the back end of the contract. Now it's true that if Sabathia opts out, they'll either lose him or have to pay more for him, but it also significantly decreases the chance that he gets hurt on their dollar. And honestly, I don't see how the Yanks really "lose" all that much if they get three years of ace quality pitching without having to foot the bill for any of Sabathia's decline. The only way the Yanks really lose is if he craters or is injured for a long portion of the contract, but they would lose in that situation anyway and in that case at least they the opt out clause lowered the amount of money they would have to commit.
in that alternate hellhole universe, the Yankees sign Martinez, leaving the Sox to sign Mussina. Despite injuries limiting Pedro to only 120 awesome innings in 2001, NY still wins the division but w/o Pedro in the playoffs they dont beat Seattle.
it only decreases that chance if they lose him, if they pay more to keep him they face the chance that he gets hurt on their (now bigger) dollar. If he's worth enough to opt-out after 3 years, they probably WANT the risk of the back end of the contract, because it also comes with the benefits of the back-end of the contract.
And let's also remember that a player may opt out for money, but that doesn't mean that the remaining 4 years of the deal are a good use of the funds. So while one other team may be willing to pay CC 5/125 three years from now, it doesn't mean the Yankees would want to pay him 4/92 at that same point.
True, but unlikely.
nice for the yankees? Right, but they might not have felt it at the time (and offered him more money) or (more likely) he wouldnt have opted out given that the big bucks in that contract were in the last 3 years.
To address the Matsuzaka point, you're right that it doesn't work with my theory. Perhaps they were more desperate to make a splash and to improve their pitching at that point? Or perhaps the opportunity to have a big chunk not count against the cap and not having to surrender picks pushed them in that direction? That's all I've got.
If the Yankees also had an opt-out option, then I think Darren's assessment would work.
Yup, I didn't phrase that well at all.
If he's worth enough to opt-out after 3 years, they probably WANT the risk of the back end of the contract, because it also comes with the benefits of the back-end of the contract.
True. If they decide they want to sign him into his late 30s, then they assume more risk in order to get that, that's what makes this good for Sabathia, but they still got three good years out of an ace for a market rate so I don't think it's that terrible for the Yanks. It'll be as if they signed a 3 year contract for a cheaper rate than any three year contract the could have signed for him and now have to extend him. Obviously the Yanks lose here if Sabathia is healthy for the next seven years and is healthy the entire time. I think there's a much better chance to get three very good years out of him. And then at that time they can just walk away or reevaluate. It's not ideal, but it's not a horrible position to be in and faced with that or paying even more through the teeth to get a full seven year contract, I think this was the right idea. And if it turns out Sabathia likes New York, they might not (I wouldn't hold my breath, but it's a possibility, it happened with Moose) have to way outbid everyone for him the next time around.
Opt Out:
--CC stinks it up, Yankees still on the hook for last 4/92.
--CC is good, he opts out and becomes a FA. The Yankees have gotten a tidy 3-year-deal, one they would have loved to sign. They miss out on the last 4 years of the contract, which may or may not be a good deal anyways.
No Opt Out:
--CC stinks it up, Yankees still on the hook for last 4/92.
--CC is good, he stay for the next 4/92, which is probably a good investment.
[Edit: fixed #s]
I agree.
And of course it could be a blessing in disguise if he pitches well for 3 years, opts out and signs with someone else and then gets hurt right away or loses his effectiveness or falls into the springfield mystery spot, etc.
--CC stinks it up, Yankees still on the hook for last 4/72.
--CC is good, he stay for the next 4/72, which is probably a good investment.
That, and the contract would have been for significantly more money, that 4/92 (it is 92 right, not 72?) might have been 4/112.
And of course it could be a blessing in disguise if he pitches well for 3 years, opts out and signs with someone else and then gets hurt right away or loses his effectiveness or falls into the springfield mystery spot, etc.
Unlikely of course, but yeah, it could happen. I think the Yanks should spend the next three years setting up the team so that they won't have to re-sign Sabathia. It will certainly give us an awful lot of excitement 2 years from now.
Because signing Sabathia is such a good idea, the opt-out is a small price to pay to get him. It's a price, but because Sabathia's really really good, it's worth it.
And of course it could be a disaster of unprecedented magnitude if he gets hurt or ineffective before the end of the first 3 years, and then utilizes all his option years while providing four years of Pavano-style contributions.
Is there really no minimum performance requirement that he has to fulfill before exercising an option year?
They'd be on the hook for this anyways.
Under the no opt out option, they get 100% of the bad backend 4 years. Under opt-out option, they miss out on some of them. They also miss out on many of the good backend 4 years.
theyre not option years. Its just one option for a 4-year contract
I don't think it means this at all. If they think Teixeira is worth 8/200 and they can get him for 8/160, they're going to sign him no matter what. You also need to remember that the Sox will get a lot of value back for whichever guy they trade
Just making numbers up, but say 30% of the time he opts out and gets paid on average $50 million over market value. .3*50 = opt out costs $15 million on top of the three year deal.
I also don't see any reason they can't trade Youkilis, especially if Lowell's defense isn't getting properly valued by other teams
lowell's health torpedoes both of those conclusions to some degree
I've never seen a report suggest that the surgery might not improve his condition from last year (which would probably lead to retirement).
2) Teams almost never trade for a guy coming off surgery of any kind.
The stuff that I saw (IIRC) said they had never done this surgery on a MLB player before and were unsure of what to expect. I think their best comp was a college athlete of some kind. And an injury very rarely leads to retirement--it usually leads to a guy spending 2 years on the 60-day DL.
This doesn't pass the smell test to me. How was a 103 OPS+ 3B who missed 30% of the season worth $17 million last year? What am I missing here?
I agree with MCoA's general point - at least from an outsider's perspective, Lowell is a significant risk coming off hip surgery at 35 years old. That sounds like a risky proposition, at least on the face of it. I'm not saying he won't bounce back and play reasonably well next year (I can see him putting up a line similar to last year without squinting), and if Lowell is going to be reasonably healthy entering next season, then his contract really isn't that bad (though I'd disagree it's a huge bargain of some sort).
Still wouldn't expect to get anything really exciting for him though - depending on how much salary they picked up, maybe a B prospect? Maybe paired up with non-Buchholz Sox prospect to get a catcher? (Lowell + prospect and/or $$ for Shoppach?)
Sounds like you're missing that his UZR was +18.5/150. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=527&position=3B
http://www.japanesebaseball.com/players/player.jsp?PlayerID=1026
I like it. Looks like Hiroki Kuroda to me, maybe a little bit better.
McAnulty is among them.
Also, the Globe is reporting that there's no offer to Kawakami.
15 starts is all I ask. He'll help us in those 15 starts. The best part:
He'll start Game 3 of the ALDS, Game 3 and 7 of the ALCS
but lose game 7 apparently if youre not slating him for any WS games...
That guy is baller, a shot caller, and probably a better hitter than 'Tek at this point.
I want a health PLAYOFF John Smoltz. If he can only make 15 starts in the regular season, then it's 15 starts. I assume he'll start pitching in June, and then have a brief 3 week period down the stretch where he's moved to the pen to conserve his arm.
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