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   1. John DiFool2 Posted: August 27, 2010 at 04:23 PM (#3627510)
The only slumps (min. 15 games) I could find for either of the teams we're chasing were:

Yankees May 9th to 29th, 8-12, and

Rays, Jun 10-29th, 5-12.

They both had shorter slumps earlier this month (Rays, Aug 4-13, 2-7, and Yanks, Aug 1-10, 3-6) which the Sox were absolutely unable to take advantage of: since then they're 11-5 & 9-6 respectively. In other words we ain't catching nobody (yeah, anybody) unless either of them goes .500 or less from here on out.
   2. Jose Is The Most Absurd Thing on the Site Posted: August 27, 2010 at 04:43 PM (#3627545)
I think playing three night games might be a very very small advantage to the Sox. Given the limitations on Lowell, Lowrie and to a lesser extent Martinez not having a day game after night game situation should help. I'm not sure that Lowrie or Lowell can play all three games anyway given their situations but it seems more likely given the schedule set up.
   3. Darren Posted: August 27, 2010 at 05:20 PM (#3627597)
If given the chance, Garza will end the Sox' season. He's just money.
   4. Pingu Posted: August 27, 2010 at 05:58 PM (#3627664)
Agreed, Garza has been absolutely lights out lately.

Not very confident in winning the series, let alone a sweep.

Irregardless of that, I'm really looking forward to these three games.
   5. The Piehole of David Wells Posted: August 27, 2010 at 07:34 PM (#3627861)
I'd like to see a little Morgan Magic right now.
   6. Darren Posted: August 27, 2010 at 07:44 PM (#3627877)
Garza will chew the Sox up.... and spit them out.
   7. TVerik, the gum-snappin' hairdresser Posted: August 27, 2010 at 08:03 PM (#3627917)
I'm conflicted about this series. I don't know who I want to win each game.
   8. rLr Is King Of The Romans And Above Grammar Posted: August 27, 2010 at 08:11 PM (#3627931)
I'm conflicted about this series. I don't know who I want to win each game.

I want the Red Sox to sweep now. Then I will reassess who I want to sweep the next one when the time comes.
   9. Darren Posted: August 27, 2010 at 08:13 PM (#3627934)
We Red Sox fans feel for the tough position you guys are in. ;)
   10. Jose Is The Most Absurd Thing on the Site Posted: August 27, 2010 at 08:14 PM (#3627935)
If I were in Erik's shoes I'd be rooting for the Rays this week. Get rid of the Red Sox and you can book the playoffs on Monday. Settle that and worry about the division later.

I feel oddly confident about the series. I think we're going to win the series but I think it won't be enough in the end anyway. I think Lester does his thing tonight and we beat up on Shields on Sunday (Garza of course will stick it up our ass as he always does).
   11. Nasty Nate Posted: August 27, 2010 at 08:26 PM (#3627952)
nah, we got Garza this time. It will be his 5th start against Boston this year, and they have hit him.

...or am I messing up some triple-reverse jinx?
   12. Textbook Editor Posted: August 27, 2010 at 09:07 PM (#3628029)
Without a sweep, I think it will be exceedingly hard to get the WC. Even a 2-1 weekend is basically running in place at this point.

Whoever clear Pedroia to play needs to be fired. I sincerely hope there's a training staff purge this offseason.
   13. Darren Posted: August 27, 2010 at 09:43 PM (#3628108)
Well, 2-1 and then 3-0 and you're in it.
   14. TVerik, the gum-snappin' hairdresser Posted: August 27, 2010 at 11:24 PM (#3628203)
I've been in a similar rooting spot before. Before the series, I resolved to root for the Red Sox. But my antipathy for that organization overwhelmed me - when I actually turned the game on, I rooted for the other team.
   15. Chip Posted: August 27, 2010 at 11:55 PM (#3628219)
Visiting the in-laws in Florida, so I will be attending Saturday's game at The Dump.
   16. Spaceman Posted: August 28, 2010 at 12:18 AM (#3628235)
I want the Red Sox to sweep now. Then I will reassess who I want to sweep the next one when the time comes.

You have some serious problems there in Gotham, you should not come off as so arrogant. Remember, it ain't your record forged from yesterday, but your coming one.
   17. Chris Dial Posted: August 28, 2010 at 12:36 AM (#3628251)
How's it going, SPaceman?
   18. TVerik, the gum-snappin' hairdresser Posted: August 28, 2010 at 12:37 AM (#3628252)
Well, the coming one minus five and a half.
   19. Spaceman Posted: August 28, 2010 at 12:53 AM (#3628261)
What you got for me, Chris. No Sox on TV so my mouse is a busy bee.
   20. rLr Is King Of The Romans And Above Grammar Posted: August 28, 2010 at 01:50 AM (#3628317)
You have some serious problems there in Gotham, you should not come off as so arrogant. Remember, it ain't your record forged from yesterday, but your coming one.

Not arrogant at all, sir. I simply want the team which is closest in the standings to mine to lose. Should the Bostons overtake the Rays, I shall switch my rooting interest to Tampa.

I am pretty sure, however, that the record up till now does still count, though. You might want to check your facts on that one.
   21. Spaceman Posted: August 28, 2010 at 02:26 AM (#3628356)
Cashman was right, Lee was mandatory. I think he ###### up with Haren, though. I too question how the man would have done in the AL East, but really, compared to AJ, Vasquez, Hughes and Mosebly?
   22. Chip Posted: August 28, 2010 at 02:49 AM (#3628364)
AJ Burnett is practically an embedded Red Sox this year. Pitching as badly as his former Marlin teammate in Boston.
   23. rLr Is King Of The Romans And Above Grammar Posted: August 28, 2010 at 02:55 AM (#3628366)
Burnett could tear off three excellent starts in October. It wouldn't surprise me, though I sure as hell wouldn't bet on it. Hughes is fine. The real key is Pettitte. If he comes back strong, the team is a real threat. If he doesn't, they'd better score a lot of runs.
   24. villageidiom Posted: August 28, 2010 at 03:07 AM (#3628371)
It would have been nice if the Sox had a real first baseman, but that’s passed.
What's the latest on Carlos Delgado? Rosters expand Wednesday... obviously too late for this series.
   25. Spaceman Posted: August 28, 2010 at 03:08 AM (#3628372)
I wouldn't go so far as saying 'Hughes is fine' unless you expect a continued 8 runs of support, but I agree about AJ and Pettitte. CC, AJ and Pettitte are certainly enough with the number of runs the team scores, but there are questions there. Consider, Pettitte never really comes back and AJ continues to throw up stinkers; where do the Yanks finish.

Out of it, I say.
   26. Spaceman Posted: August 28, 2010 at 03:09 AM (#3628373)
What's the latest on Carlos Delgado?

Not much
   27. rLr Is King Of The Romans And Above Grammar Posted: August 28, 2010 at 03:22 AM (#3628381)
Ah, Hughes is pretty much a lock to give you at least five innings in every start, even when he gets hit a bit. Between the pretty good lineup and the recently strong bullpen, Hughes gives the Yankees a good chance to win the large majority of his starts.

The Yankees will make the playoffs. They might or might not do much once they get there. I've got a funny feeling about the Padres this season.
   28. Spaceman Posted: August 28, 2010 at 03:32 AM (#3628388)
Phil Hughes since June: 5.03 ERA, 6.7 K, 2.5 W, 1.54 HR, and isn't he to be shelved soon, as well?
   29. Darren Posted: August 28, 2010 at 04:05 PM (#3628616)
A 5.00 ERA over 3 months is nothing to get too worried about.
   30. tfbg9 Posted: August 28, 2010 at 04:25 PM (#3628628)
If given the chance, Garza will end the Sox' season. He's just money.


Like Wakefield.

The Sox have one chance to make some noise in the coming weeks--pitch like a bastard.
   31. Paxton Crawford Ranch Posted: August 28, 2010 at 04:37 PM (#3628640)
With last night's win and the Yankee's loss, the Red Sox' playoff odds are now at 24.5% according to the straight Monte Carlo method. That was a gain of 6.8%, the largest one day jump since July 10 and fourth largest of the season. Odds peaked June 30 at 70% and going into yesterday were at their lowest since May 19 when the Sox stood 20-20. They're playing just about as well now as they were at their peak (.570 to .582); they've just gotten lapped by New York and Tampa.

ELO odds are about the same, 23.6%, but PECOTA hates them to the tune of 11.3%. I'm not sure what's going on there, as all three teams were considered pretty even by the system before the season. Maybe it's that PECOTA didn't like a bunch of the players who are big contributors to the team (Buchholz, Beltre, Ortiz, McDonald) and projects them to regress.
   32. Cowboy Popup Posted: August 28, 2010 at 04:40 PM (#3628641)
I too question how the man would have done in the AL East, but really, compared to AJ, Vasquez, Hughes and Mosebly?

Nova should be decent enough to help out the rotation. He throws really hard and he keeps the ball on the ground unless Jose Bautista is hitting. He won't strike a ton of guys out but he'll keep the ball in the park.
   33. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: August 28, 2010 at 06:24 PM (#3628691)
I'm guessing PECOTA accounts for the fact that the Sox going forward do not include Youkilis and Pedroia. The projection issues with Buchholz, Beltre, Lowrie, and Hall are also probably a part of it.

David Ortiz has played right up to his preseason projections, plus about 40-50 points of slugging. He's only outplaying expectations marginally. Ortiz is currently hitting 366/534, and his rest-of-season ZiPS is 368/505.
   34. Toby Posted: August 28, 2010 at 06:56 PM (#3628702)
So with Youkilis and Pedroia both on the shelf for the year, whose team is it? I seem to recall a lot of articles the past year or two about how these Red Sox are Youkilis' and Pedroia's team. Well, not right now they aren't.

Is this Adrian Beltre's team? is it Lester's and Buchholz's team?
   35. dave h Posted: August 28, 2010 at 07:01 PM (#3628709)
Youkilis and Pedroia are both still the clubhouse, right? Admittedly it's a little harder to be a leader or whatnot when you're not actually playing. I doubt there's a void either in the clubhouse or on the field that needs to be filled though, and everyone's probably happy to just do their thing. It's not like they need a big kick in the pants anyway. They're playing well, it's just that they have a tough task ahead of them. Last night's win was huge, but of course in their position the next game is also huge, and that's going to continue right down until they're out of it or the season ends.
   36. Textbook Editor Posted: August 28, 2010 at 07:30 PM (#3628724)
You'll know if Tito thinks every game is a playoff game from here on out (my take) if he does NOT put MDC into a game to protect a 1-run lead.

Huge game tonight.
   37. rLr Is King Of The Romans And Above Grammar Posted: August 28, 2010 at 07:59 PM (#3628743)
Is this Adrian Beltre's team? is it Lester's and Buchholz's team?

Pretty sure it's John Henry's team.
   38. Spaceman Posted: August 28, 2010 at 10:04 PM (#3628795)
In which case, it's Pizzuti's team :)

I also agree that Garza is too much. Really the only debate is, does he no-hit the Sox or just shut them out. Also, Buchholz; he's definitely due for a poor game.
   39. Dan Posted: August 30, 2010 at 12:38 AM (#3629390)
So, anyone think the Sox will actually work something out to get Napoli? Or will the Angels hold out for the offseason so they can play a few bidders against each other?
   40. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: August 30, 2010 at 01:14 AM (#3629415)
I can't imagine that Napoli would make it through waivers.
   41. Dan Posted: August 30, 2010 at 01:24 AM (#3629425)
The Red Sox were already awarded the claim on him, Voxter. Just a question of working out a trade or the Angels pulling him back and trading him this winter.
   42. Textbook Editor Posted: August 30, 2010 at 03:13 AM (#3629587)
Re-posted from tonight's Chatter, just because my rage at Lackey's suckitude knows no boundaries:

Lackey's Givebacks (outings where he allowed a run in the next half-inning after the Red Sox score a run)

1) April 24th - Red Sox score 1 in the bottom of the 5th to make it 2-1 Orioles, Lackey gives a run right back to the Orioles in the top of the 6th. (Lackey goes 7 and the Red Sox score 6 in the bottom of the 7th to win 7-6.)

2) May 5th - Red Sox score 1 in the bottom of the 4th to go up 2-0 on LAA; Lackey gives 1 right back in the top of the 5th. (Red Sox go on to win 3-1.)

3) May 10th - Red Sox score 2 in the bottom of the 1st to go up 2-0 on Toronto. Lackey comes back and gives up 4 in the top of the 2nd. (Red Sox score 4 in the bottom of the 2nd and go on to win 7-6; Lackey responsible for all 6 runs.)

4) May 16th - Red Sox trail 2-0 after 2 innings, score 1 in the top of the 3rd. Lackey allows 1 run in the bottom of the 3rd (and 2 more in the bottom of the 4th), Sox go on to lose 5-1 to the Tigers.

5) May 26th - Red Sox score 1 in the top of the 2nd to go up 1-0 on TB; Lackey gives the run right back in the bottom of the 2nd. (Red Sox go on to win 11-3.)

6) June 6th - Red Sox score 2 in the top of the 2nd against Orioles, Lackey gives 2 right back in the bottom of the 2nd. (Red Sox lose 4-3 in 11.)

*7) June 11th - This one comes with an asterisk. The Red Sox score 3 in the bottom of the 3rd to go up 12-0 against the Phillies, and Lackey gives 1 run back in the top of the 4th. Red Sox win 12-2. Technically a "giveback" half-inning, but with a 12-0 lead it's hardly a backbreaker.

8) June 17th - Red Sox score 2 in the bottom of the 3rd to go up 3-2 on Arizona. Lackey gives it right back with 1 run in the top of the 4th. (Red Sox go on to win 8-5.)

9) June 23rd - Red Sox score 2 in the top of the 4th to climb back into the game against the Rockies (they're now down 4-2). Lackey gives up a run in the bottom of the 4th to make it 5-2. (Red Sox go on to lose on the Papelbon BS 8-6.)

10) June 29th - Red Sox score 3 in the bottom of the 6th to go up 5-0 on TB. Lackey gives up 1 run in the top of the 7th. (Red Sox go on to win 8-5.)

11) July 10th - One of my personal favorite Lackey Fail games, against Toronto. Red Sox score 1 in the top of the 1st to go up 1-0; Lackey allows 3 in the bottom of the first. Red Sox amazingly come back with 3 more in the top of the 2nd and 1 in the top of the 3rd but eventually Lackey gives it all back and Red Sox lose 9-5.

12) July 27th - Top of the 8th against LAA, the Red Sox score 1 to go up 3-1. Lackey gives it right back in the bottom of the 8th on a HR. (Red Sox go on to win 4-2.)

13) August 7th - Another favorite of mine. Against NYY, Red Sox score 2 in the top of the 2nd. Lackey gives the 2 right back in the bottom of the 2nd. (Red Sox go on to lose 5-2.)

14) August 18th - Red Sox score 1 in the bottom of the 4th to make it 2-2 against the Angels. Lackey gives up 3 in the top of the 5th, but the Red Sox go on to win 7-5.

15) August 23rd - Red Sox score 3 in the bottom of the 5th to go up 3-1 against the Mariners. Lackey gives it right back with 2 in the top of the 6th. (Red Sox go on to win 6-3.)

16) August 29th - Red Sox score 1 in the top of the 6th to make it 3-1. Lackey gives up 3 in the bottom of the 6th. Rays go on to win 5-3.
   43. Darren Posted: August 30, 2010 at 03:14 AM (#3629588)
The Sox should really go hard after him. He's just what they need. (Edit to add: There's also a good chance that the Red Sox value him quite a bit more highly than the Angels do.)

So, anyway, the results are in: Go home. What a disappointment this team has been.


Edited to add:

NESN Daily is the worst thing I've ever seen. It's like a cross between Poochie and Cold Pizza.
   44. John DiFool2 Posted: August 30, 2010 at 03:20 AM (#3629592)
Time to play the kids, see what they've got (perhaps even including Lars, despite the 40 man issue). For a team with more holes in it than Blackburn, Lancashire, they (the survivors) certainly gave it their all.
   45. Jose Is The Most Absurd Thing on the Site Posted: August 30, 2010 at 03:26 AM (#3629595)
I'd love to see Napoli here and inserted as the everyday catcher.
   46. rLr Is King Of The Romans And Above Grammar Posted: August 30, 2010 at 03:34 AM (#3629597)
Nail met coffin this evening, didn't it?

Tony Reagins had better squeeze Theo hard if he's going to let Napoli go.
   47. The Original SJ Posted: August 30, 2010 at 03:43 AM (#3629601)
Rooting for the Red Sox feels odd.
   48. Textbook Editor Posted: August 30, 2010 at 03:57 AM (#3629609)
FWIW, I was slammed a few months ago for thinking the Angels would ever trade Napoli for less than a great package from the Red Sox... it would be greatly amusing to me for a waiver trade to happen now; I'd be forced to go dig up that thread... But I very much doubt it would happen.

Of course, a Napoli/Salty tandem for next year, and letting VMart walk... I'd be OK with that. I'd even be OK with offering arbitration and going with 3 C's and making Napoli the DH/1B/C with VMart and Salty if VMart accepted... So maybe Theo plans to offer something more than a cursory offer.
   49. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: August 30, 2010 at 04:10 AM (#3629615)
Some of my goals, as a Red Sox fan, for the month of September:

1) Let Kalish get lots of playing time in the OF. If it means less time for McDonald and Hall in the OF, I'm very fine with that. Both guys have performed admirably this season - but neither has anything to do with the success of future Red Sox teams.

2) Take it a little easier on Bard - if we're not going to the playoffs, let's not burn him out.

3) Give Doubront, Richardson, and Bowden some meaningful innings in September - let's see what we have here...

4) Give Saltalamacchia some playing time at C. He may well be a part of the mix in 2011, likely as the primary backup C who can play a little first base - so let's see how he handles catching, post-Dale Murphy-as-catcher problems.

5) Let Reddick play some games. I'm not convinced he's a big leaguer, but some think he could be a useful piece in 2011...let's try to figure him out, too.

Honestly, because of the injuries, there isn't that much to "try" out in September. I think Kalish and Doubront are probably the two guys who are most likely to impact the 2011 Red Sox roster, among the 2010 rookies - so let's start 2011 in September, 2010!
   50. Textbook Editor Posted: August 30, 2010 at 04:25 AM (#3629617)
We need a September callup/playing time discussion thread.

I'd play McDonald over Nava. McDonald I think might be a worthwhile 4th/5th OF. I'm not sure defensively Nava can stick in that role long-term.

Play Reddick, sure. Absolutely.

Rest Bard. See if Papelbon can be put on waivers.

Play Lowrie. Give Scutaro many days off or even put him out the rest of the year so he can finally rest the arm that's been hurt.

Don't give any innings to MDC/Okajima. They don't deserve them and they won't be here in 2011 (I'm pretty sure). Bring up Bowden and see what he can do.

I'd even bring up Lars and get him some games at 1B. Why the hell not? To clear the spot on the 40-man just get rid of Eric Patterson, who has no role whatsoever on this team in 2011.
   51. steagles Posted: August 30, 2010 at 04:37 AM (#3629618)
go home, please.
   52. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: August 30, 2010 at 08:40 AM (#3629641)
The Red Sox were already awarded the claim on him, Voxter.


I find this a little odd.

Anyway, it's clear that the Angels don't value Napoli very highly, some people's fever dreams to the contrary. It'll be interesting to see what they want for him.
   53. TomH Posted: August 30, 2010 at 12:09 PM (#3629654)
ET phooone hoooome
   54. Jose Is The Most Absurd Thing on the Site Posted: August 30, 2010 at 12:59 PM (#3629674)
No arguments with 49 or 50, both make sense. My only addition would be to shut Beckett down and let Doubront start a few games.

I don't understand 51, my boss would be mad if I just went home.
   55. Smiling Joe Hesketh Posted: August 30, 2010 at 01:10 PM (#3629682)
Can we just have Lackey shot or something? Holy hell the Sox would have been much better off just burning the $82 million.
   56. Jose Is The Most Absurd Thing on the Site Posted: August 30, 2010 at 01:16 PM (#3629686)
Lackey's got a career-worst BABIP. I think he'll bounce back some next year. With the complete collapse of the K rate he'll never be worth the $82 million but I think he'll be better next year.
   57. Nasty Nate Posted: August 30, 2010 at 01:35 PM (#3629698)
Ortiz' option gets picked up, yea or nay?
   58. Spaceman Posted: August 30, 2010 at 01:40 PM (#3629706)
Mine:

1) Play ball
2) Play it hard
3) Play it well

Pet peeve: Please stop this nonsense about so-and-so player possibly being acquired (if they have value whatsoever). IT'S NOT HAPPENING. The failure, to date, of this team is the partners unwillingness to spend over the luxury cap. I also have two comments regarding that:
1) I'm not convinced they have (yeah, I know; reportedly it's fact that they have)
2) Do not build another roster within 10% of said tax if you're not willing to spend over it.

To the rest of the team: Well played. But return to us a few Yankee scalps, won't ya.
   59. Spaceman Posted: August 30, 2010 at 01:41 PM (#3629708)
yea
   60. Jose Is The Most Absurd Thing on the Site Posted: August 30, 2010 at 01:41 PM (#3629709)
I say "yea." I think it's an overpay by a few mil but the Sox can afford it.

A Napoli acquisition may make that a different answer though. If the Sox decide to go with Napoli behind the plate and re-sign Victor as a DH then they don't need to pick up Ortiz. The problem is I just don't see an option out there for the Sox as a productive bat in the middle of the order.

(for what it's worth, that's what I would do, I think the Sox let him walk in keeping with their general M.O. of getting rid of a player too early rather than too late)
   61. Jose Is The Most Absurd Thing on the Site Posted: August 30, 2010 at 01:43 PM (#3629710)
The failure, to date, of this team is the partners unwillingness to spend over the luxury cap.


The failure of this team is that they only spent $170 million on payroll? Not 80 missed games by Pedroia, 60 by Youk, 144 by Ellsbury and 90 by Cameron or the complete waste of a year from Beckett or the underrated but important down year by Martinez or the bad year by Lackey?
   62. Smiling Joe Hesketh Posted: August 30, 2010 at 01:54 PM (#3629719)
Martinez also missed a bunch of time with that broken finger. And Kevin Cash got playing time due to all the injuries. Kevin Cash! Perhaps the worst hitter since Bill Bergen!

Varitek is still out too. Must've been a helluva break in that foot. And Drew has been durable but is having an off year compared to his last two (109 OPS+ as opposed to one in the 130s).
   63. Jose Is The Most Absurd Thing on the Site Posted: August 30, 2010 at 02:00 PM (#3629723)
I think the season can be summed up by the fact that Tom Caron referred to Drew as "the iron man of the outfield" earlier this year. When J.D. Drew is "the iron man" you know you are having some injury issues.
   64. Spaceman Posted: August 30, 2010 at 02:00 PM (#3629724)
Yes, there were/are holes that needed to be filled - that could have been, easily - that could have proved the difference. To your points:

Beckett - that #### happens. No team goes into a year expecting full health from their starters. Buchholz and to a smaller degree, Dice, made up for Beckett's injury plagued year.

Lackey - has been a very effective 4/5 starter.

Ellsbury - effectively replaced by McD.

Cameron - effectively replaced.

Youk - if money was not a concern, a RH 1B may be the easiest resource to replace.

Pedroia - effectively replaced by Lowrie.

Martinez has been fine.
   65. Dale Sams Posted: August 30, 2010 at 02:06 PM (#3629729)
#64 is hilarious.


Wait for it...any second now, someone will complain about the Sox not ponying up the extra dough for Teixiera.
   66. Spaceman Posted: August 30, 2010 at 02:10 PM (#3629731)
Not so hilarious if you consider where the team is today and how much better it would be with a 1B and relievers. The replacements, sans Lowell, have done an excellent job.

Dale, that's not where I was coming from. I'm not complaining about how much the Team did or did not spend, I'm complaining that in a year when Theo just knew he would not have funds over the Tax, he walked into the season with a $160m+ payroll. Doing so has compromised the team because of its unfortunate injuries.
   67. rLr Is King Of The Romans And Above Grammar Posted: August 30, 2010 at 02:12 PM (#3629733)
Kevin Cash got playing time due to all the injuries. Kevin Cash! Perhaps the worst hitter since Bill Bergen!

I would direct your attention to Brandon Wood.
   68. Jose Is The Most Absurd Thing on the Site Posted: August 30, 2010 at 02:18 PM (#3629741)
Ellsbury - effectively replaced by McD.

Cameron - effectively replaced.


Baloney.

LF - .696 OPS
CF - .668 OPS

Ellsbury career - .744 OPS
Cameron career - .787 OPS

Some individuals (McDonald notably) have done a good job but center and left have been well below what was expected at the start of the year.
   69. Spaceman Posted: August 30, 2010 at 02:23 PM (#3629749)
And exactly how many wins does .100 OPS equate to?

McD, Nava, Kalish, et el, have not been the end of the world, that's all I'm saying. BTW, the 2nd easiest position to replace is OF, which brings us back to my original point.
   70. Jose Is The Most Absurd Thing on the Site Posted: August 30, 2010 at 02:27 PM (#3629751)
68 was ######## than I meant it to be. This "No team goes into a year expecting full health from their starters" is true and you can make the case for everything that happened to the Sox. The idea that the left fielder would miss the whole year isn't crazy, the idea that the center fielder would miss half a season isn't crazy, 2nd base, 1st base, Opening Day starting pitcher...etc...etc...

All of these things as independent events would be something to be dealt with. To have all of them happen at the same time is not something that would be accounted for and frankly could not be accounted for. You cannot go into a season with plausible replacements for that much talent.
   71. Nasty Nate Posted: August 30, 2010 at 02:33 PM (#3629757)
And exactly how many wins does .100 OPS equate to?


then how many wins would a slight upgrade at 1b for the weeks after Youkilis went down equate to? probably less than a full season of healthy OF'ers compared to the replacements.
   72. Spaceman Posted: August 30, 2010 at 02:34 PM (#3629760)
Yes, there were a lot of injuries, but those injured were replaced on the cheap, which worked; thank god. But Theo did not allow for much of anything to go wrong with his leaving the team with so few resources.
   73. Jose Is The Most Absurd Thing on the Site Posted: August 30, 2010 at 02:36 PM (#3629763)
McD, Nava, Kalish, et el, have not been the end of the world, that's all I'm saying. BTW, the 2nd easiest position to replace is OF, which brings us back to my original point.


McDonald I'll agree with. Nava has been pretty medicore with the bat and adds no defensive value and Kalish has been awful at the plate (.611 OPS). You also conveniently leave out Jeremy Hermida who killed the team (though his penchant for clutch hits offsets the overall value of his crummy numbers a bit I would argue).

Cameron and Ellsbury were worth a combined 5.7 wins in 2009 according to WAR.

McDonald, Nava, Kalish, Hermida and Reddick have been worth 1.0 win in 2010 according to WAR.

I'm not entirely sold on how WAR incorporates defense into the equation but that 4.7 wins feels reasonable to me.
   74. Spaceman Posted: August 30, 2010 at 02:46 PM (#3629773)
Again, I'm not saying they were better, just that they were good. The performances of Jake and Cam's replacements had less to do with this team's record than did, say, not acquiring a 1B, a C when Vmart went down, and a few reliable relievers.
   75. Jose Is The Most Absurd Thing on the Site Posted: August 30, 2010 at 02:53 PM (#3629780)
The relievers thing I'm 100% in agreement with. I thought Theo screwed the pooch in the off-season on that subject.

The 1B/C things not so much. What catcher was Theo going to acquire to fill a hole for 3-4 weeks that was going to be meaningfully better than Cash? As for 1st base the Sox were already 5 games out when Youkilis went down. I think making a waiver deal for a first baseman that, at the time, would have clearly been an improvement over Lowell was unlikely without giving up something the Sox probably were better off not giving up. Would you want to deal Doubront for 2 months of LaRoche? I wouldn't.
   76. Spaceman Posted: August 30, 2010 at 02:58 PM (#3629783)
Snyder? or how about Theo's target for the off-season (whomever that may be) who could have been brought in earlier if not for the fact that player would add to 2010's payroll? (that's a guess, but if Iannetti (for example) is traded for this off-season I might just go ballistic)

Would you want to deal Doubront for 2 months of LaRoche? I wouldn't

Less of that going on than outright dumping of players. How much did Cashman pay for Berkman again?
   77. rLr Is King Of The Romans And Above Grammar Posted: August 30, 2010 at 03:07 PM (#3629789)
Less of that going on then outright dumping of players. How much did Cashman pay for Berkman again?

Youkilis was healthy when Berkman was traded. He injured himself a few days later.
   78. Nasty Nate Posted: August 30, 2010 at 03:08 PM (#3629791)
Berkman's provided less than Lowell.

But I would have tried for LaRoche and rolled the dice that his season-splits would repeat (which they have, .680 SLG this month).

But I suspect the Sox wanted to give Lowell some PT after he was buried all year. And I'm sure they expected him to hit better.
   79. Jose Is The Most Absurd Thing on the Site Posted: August 30, 2010 at 03:11 PM (#3629795)
How much did Cashman pay for Berkman again?


Not relevant as he was moved before the deadline and more relevently before Youk got injured. It's probably worth noting that his OPS with New York is .555 so assuming that he wouldn't be better with Boston that would not have solved the problems.

The price for Snyder was a fairly decent middle reliever (Carrasco). The Sox obviously don't have one of those around. And again, he has not performed since being dealt with a .627 OPS.

I like Ianetta but the fact that he has not been moved suggests to me that the Rockies, justifiably, are not just giving him away. Again, Doubront for Ianetta? Reddick? What's the asking price?
   80. Spaceman Posted: August 30, 2010 at 03:14 PM (#3629799)
Agree about LaRoche. Also believe he was very available - albeit expensive in a weird and wacky 2010 kind of way ($3m?).

Not relevant as he was moved before the deadline and more relevently before Youk got injured

My point, of course, being that these guys were available.

It is obvious to all who observed how Lowell was utilized this year that Theo knew he was no replacement. But replace he did. Why?
   81. Jose Is The Most Absurd Thing on the Site Posted: August 30, 2010 at 03:25 PM (#3629811)
LaRoche wasn't THAT available. I'm sure the D-Backs would move him but it's not like they are going to give him away.

I don't dispute that LaRoche would be an improvement over Lowell and obviously I'd have taken Berkman also but the Sox did not really need Berkman who likely would not have waived his no trade clause (10-5) to sit on someone's bench and LaRoche, like Ianetta, obviously is not THAT available since he also has not been traded. The D-Backs are probably asking for something useful in return for him, can't say I blame them but until you can demonstrate how the Sox could have acquired these players at a realistic price I'm not buying that there was a move that could and should have been made.
   82. Home Run Teal & Black Black Black Gone! Posted: August 30, 2010 at 03:34 PM (#3629823)
All of these things as independent events would be something to be dealt with. To have all of them happen at the same time is not something that would be accounted for and frankly could not be accounted for. You cannot go into a season with plausible replacements for that much talent.


This is true. There's just no team that can lose it's two best players outside of maybe the Yankees and make the postseason, especially not in the AL East.

Injuries suck; also happen.
   83. Nasty Nate Posted: August 30, 2010 at 03:35 PM (#3629825)
LaRoche wasn't THAT available.


Well, nobody claimed LaRoche on waivers, so the D-Backs would have to know that he had little to negative trade value. Maybe they wouldn't have given him away, but why not put in a claim?

It is obvious to all who observed how Lowell was utilized this year that Theo knew he was no replacement. But replace he did. Why?


What? He used him as a replacement, so its obvious that they didn't think he was a replacement? That makes no sense. And being below the Sox' best 2 hitters (Beltre, Youk) on the depth chart does not indicate that someone is not viewed as a viable injury replacement.

The guys I can think of (Derrek Lee and Berkman) who were traded have been worse than Lowell, and Lowell has been worse than reasonably expected.
   84. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: August 30, 2010 at 03:36 PM (#3629827)
Complaining about not leaving payroll space available to use during the season doesn't make sense to me. If you think you can spend your money wisely in the offseason it makes much more sense to use it then.
   85. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: August 30, 2010 at 03:44 PM (#3629835)
Complaining about not leaving payroll space available to use during the season doesn't make sense to me.

Yeah, it's kinda like complaining about not saving a good pinch-hitter or relief pitcher for the fourteenth inning. Why not try to win in nine?
   86. Famous Original Joe C Posted: August 30, 2010 at 03:46 PM (#3629838)
On top of all the injuries, there's also that the fact that the Sox have two teams in their division on pace to win 100 games. You know what you do when two teams in your division win 100 games? You tip your hat and look ahead to next year.
   87. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: August 30, 2010 at 03:54 PM (#3629851)
Season over, nice hanging out with y'all folks.
   88. Jose Is The Most Absurd Thing on the Site Posted: August 30, 2010 at 04:00 PM (#3629860)
On top of all the injuries, there's also that the fact that the Sox have two teams in their division on pace to win 100 games. You know what you do when two teams in your division win 100 games? You tip your hat and look ahead to next year


This is an issue we aren't talking about enough. In any of the other five divisions the Sox are within two wins of first place. The Rays and Yankees are really good.
   89. Petunia inquires about ponies Posted: August 30, 2010 at 04:42 PM (#3629894)
I'd play McDonald over Nava. McDonald I think might be a worthwhile 4th/5th OF. I'm not sure defensively Nava can stick in that role long-term.

This seems backwards to me. McDonald's had 300 PAs this season and over 3700 career PAs in AAA alone. You think another ~120 this month is going to make up your mind? We know what McDonald's potential is, and I think you hit it on the nose - a worthwhile back-of-bench roster spot. The things we're not sure about are precisely what we should be testing right now. So you'd play Nava over McDonald.
   90. Pingu Posted: August 30, 2010 at 08:05 PM (#3630133)
This is true. There's just no team that can lose it's two best players outside of maybe the Yankees and make the postseason, especially not in the AL East.

Any playoff bound team gets hit string of injuries like the Red Sox, then no doubt they are no longer a playoff team, be it the 2010 or the 1927 Yankees.
   91. Pingu Posted: August 30, 2010 at 08:13 PM (#3630146)
With a night to let it sink in, you've really got to be impressed with the team as currently constructed. All things considered, on pace for 92 wins. For all thats happened, thats pretty damn impressive. Its also a shame. Oh well. Next year.

The bullpen got a lot of flak, but cant argue with going into the season with 2009 version of Papelbon, Bard, Delcarmen, Okajima, Ramirez.

Not recognizing that Okajima's trick was up, Delcarmen's radar gun reading was a random number generator, and giving up on Ramirez without finding alternatives was not acceptable. Seeing Okajima in the game last night was inexcusable. I know Tito is loyal and all, but this is not May of 2007 Dustin Pedroia. Its been fairly obvious from early on that Okajima is toast.
   92. Pingu Posted: August 30, 2010 at 08:14 PM (#3630149)
By the way, anyone else realize that John Lackey is leading the Red Sox in IP. Funny how Tito gets locked into "HE'S A HORSE, LEAVE HIM IN!" I think 10 or so less innings in the same # of starts for Lackey would have done wonders in the W column.
   93. Pingu Posted: August 30, 2010 at 08:30 PM (#3630172)
Lets talk about Doubront.

Forget about "trying him out". In case you guys havent been paying attention, for the time he's been on the roster he's been your most reliable reliever after Bard and Papelbon.

The only question is whether the Sox view him long term as a starter, a LOOGY, or a multi-inning 2nd lefty. I think with a bit better control, theres no reason he couldnt stick as a starter. Since his innings total is still relatively modest, I dont see any reason why he shouldnt get some starts in sept, as long as they feel comfortable stretching him back out. I'd be in favor of going 6-man rotation for the last month. Or shutting down Lackey and sending him to get reconstructive face surgery.

Sorry. He hasnt been that bad, but I'm an ###.
   94. Jose Is The Most Absurd Thing on the Site Posted: August 30, 2010 at 08:40 PM (#3630182)
I love love LOVE Doubront. I think you have him go into next year prepped as a starter but work with him out of the bullpen simply because the other five starters are set. Let him make the occasional spot start unless he is really needed out there (e.g. Bard/Papelbon goes down).

I think 10 or so less innings in the same # of starts for Lackey would have done wonders in the W column.


My take is the opposite. Lackey has actually had 3 or 4 games that I can think of where by going another inning or two that say Matsuzaka wouldn't have gone has stolen the club a win by getting to Bard/Papelbon rather than entrusting things to Delcarmen/Okajima.
   95. Answer Guy Posted: August 30, 2010 at 09:08 PM (#3630200)
By the way, anyone else realize that John Lackey is leading the Red Sox in IP.


I'd have guessed Lester (Beckett's been lousy and injured a lot, Bucholz missed some time and was used like a #5 starter early on, Dice-K frequently can't go deep into games b/c of how he pitches) but am not that surprised. I can't think of many starts where Lackey was awful, just a morass of mediocrity.
   96. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: August 30, 2010 at 10:06 PM (#3630237)
By the way, anyone else realize that John Lackey is leading the Red Sox in IP.

Well, he also leads in games started. Lester will probably at least pull even in his next start.
   97. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: August 31, 2010 at 11:22 AM (#3630549)
because the other five starters are set.


And Wakefield is signed for next year as the presumptive #6 starter.
   98. Textbook Editor Posted: August 31, 2010 at 12:28 PM (#3630567)
Well, Wakefield's cost is an easy one to absorb if the need arises.
   99. Answer Guy Posted: August 31, 2010 at 02:12 PM (#3630649)
Whoever clear Pedroia to play needs to be fired. I sincerely hope there's a training staff purge this offseason.


Concur. One instance could happen to anymore. But this seems to keep happening over and over again, and we can't have it happen to guys who are supposed to be the future of the franchise.
   100. Smiling Joe Hesketh Posted: August 31, 2010 at 02:17 PM (#3630654)
But Pedroia didn't reinjure the foot from what I've read. The pain simply never lessened to the point where he could keep playing.

And I'm not sure how the medical staff's to blame when Pedroia's out there with a boot on his foot, on his knees, fielding grounders before games. I understand everyone likes his attitude and that he's a gamer, but that was monumentally stupid of him.

Whatever. Season's over now, just shelve him for the year and tell him to rest up for 2011.

All these guys get hurt, and not one of them is that useless shitstain Lackey. Christ what a frustrating season.
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