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   1. tjm1 Posted: May 15, 2010 at 12:10 PM (#3533471)
If he puts up a .220/.310/.480 line, which I think is a very reasonable expectation, which he might very well exceed, it won't be very good for a DH, but it might be better than anyone else they can get at this point. I think they can platoon him with Mike Lowell, and coax a little better line than that out of Ortiz, and a much better one against lefties out of Lowell. A .250/.330/.500 DH would probably be about league average. They'd be paying a lot of money for that, but the money's already spent.
   2. Darren Posted: May 15, 2010 at 01:12 PM (#3533491)
I bet there are lots of guys that could beat 220/310/480, including Lowell.
   3. Marc Sully's not booin'. He's Youkin'. Posted: May 15, 2010 at 01:14 PM (#3533492)
And Daniel Nava.
   4. Darren Posted: May 15, 2010 at 02:08 PM (#3533511)
How do you guys feel about 290s hitting, good discipline Pedroia vs. 320s hitting, hacker Pedroia? Assuming the power #s will level off, I find the latter more fun.
   5. Jolly Old St. Nick Still Gags in October Posted: May 15, 2010 at 02:12 PM (#3533513)
How much would Dave Kingman be worth these days?
   6. Downtown Bookie Posted: May 15, 2010 at 02:35 PM (#3533524)
How much would Dave Kingman be worth these days?


Interesting question to ponder. Personally, I don't think he'd be worth that much today, now that folks are more hip to OBP. Keep in mind that Kingman's real problem wasn't his strikeouts; though well publicized during his playing days, Kingman, in fact, was the league leader in K's in only three of his sixteen seasons. Kingman's problem was that he rarely got on base; his lifetime Batting Average was .236, while his career OBP was only .302 (just for comparision's sake, Ortiz going into 2010 had never had a season with more than 25 Plate Appearances where his OBP was less than .324; Ortiz's career OBP is .375). In his final season Kingman, despite hitting 35 Home Runs, posted an OPS+ of 90; as bad as he's been, Ortiz's OPS+ so far this season is 100.

Obviously this is all just speculation, and there's no telling what size contract any one GM might give to any random player, but in my humble opinion I don't think Kingman rakes in the big bucks on today's open market.

DB
   7. Harold Reynolds Number Posted: May 15, 2010 at 02:37 PM (#3533525)
How much would Dave Kingman be worth these days?


He's 61. Don't give Sabean any ideas.
   8. Harold Reynolds Number Posted: May 15, 2010 at 02:44 PM (#3533528)
It was very interesting, during the Yankee series, to see how committed many Red Sox players were to taking the first pitch. It seemed that the Yankees were exploiting this and throwing meatballs to get ahead in the count. If other teams catch on, the Sox may be in trouble. It seems at some point you have to swing at some first pitches to force the other team to throw first pitches out of the zone.
   9. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: May 15, 2010 at 02:50 PM (#3533532)
f other teams catch on, the Sox may be in trouble.


I'm fairly confident that in this instance they will begin to swing earlier in the count.
   10. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: May 15, 2010 at 02:53 PM (#3533533)
How much would Dave Kingman be worth these days?
He's Adam Dunn, without the batting eye, right? Not that much.
   11. Harold Reynolds Number Posted: May 15, 2010 at 02:57 PM (#3533534)
I'm fairly confident that in this instance they will begin to swing earlier in the count.

I hope so. It was painful watching some of those meatballs float by.
   12. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: May 15, 2010 at 03:27 PM (#3533546)
rb:

Dave was a jerk. Dave was a sh#tty baserunner. Adam is neither of those
   13. Dale Sams Posted: May 15, 2010 at 04:18 PM (#3533572)
Dave was a jerk. Dave was a sh#tty baserunner. Adam is neither of those


Do you know Adam Dunn? He doesn't even like baseball

:>
   14. ptodd Posted: May 15, 2010 at 10:17 PM (#3533727)
Why would one think his K rate would be sustained over the course of the year based on such a SSS.

Als0, look at Papi 2009 vs 2010 (99 PA)

2010 213/283/483/766 6 HR, 15 RBI 34 K
2009 230/290/333/623 0 HR, 12 RBI 22 K

I like this start better, even with 12 more k's

JD Drew through 99 PA

2010 214/306/440/747 5 HR, 14 RBI, 29 K

Think JD is gong to strike out 180 times?. No way.

Papi leads the league in pitches per PA (50 or more PA) at 4.5 P/PA, so he is contributing to getting to the other teams BP a bit quicker. The state of some teams middle relief is a horror, so this is important for a teams overall offenseive production.

Also, in case anyone has not noticed it, the average DH so far in 2010 is hitting 237/322/393/715

Only 3 teams have a DH hitting significantly better than the slumping Papi (KCR, TEX, BAL). There are a couple of teams who might as well let the pitchers hit.
   15. TVerik, the gum-snappin' hairdresser Posted: May 15, 2010 at 11:04 PM (#3533737)
But installing one player as a non-glove guy really limits your team's offensive options. For instance, today the Yankees were able to get Cervelli, Posada, and Teix into the lineup at the same time. If Nick Johnson wasn't hurt, they probably couldn't have done that. If one guy is going to take up all of the ABs, he needs some level of production. Otherwise, you can give most of your lineup half-days off on occasion.

*EDIT*

I think that there are times that an 0-4 from your DH represents a contribution, because you've given someone unexpected ABs, kept a catcher from squatting for three hours, etc.

So:

Only 3 teams have a DH hitting significantly better than the slumping Papi (KCR, TEX, BAL).

may be true, but it isn't the same as "only three teams use their DH spot more efficiently."
   16. NJ in DC (Now unemployed!) Posted: May 15, 2010 at 11:05 PM (#3533738)
Re: 14

K rate stabilizes pretty quickly.
   17. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: May 15, 2010 at 11:36 PM (#3533778)
I saw Dave Kingman's Fenway Park stats somewhere once; small sample size aside, they were astronomical. If late 70s/early 80s Kingman stepped out of the time machine as a free agent, he'd likely do very well in the friendly confines.
   18. Accent Shallow Posted: May 16, 2010 at 01:11 AM (#3533829)
I saw Dave Kingman's Fenway Park stats somewhere once; small sample size aside, they were astronomical. If late 70s/early 80s Kingman stepped out of the time machine as a free agent, he'd likely do very well in the friendly confines.

The odd thing about this is that aside from 18 games in the AL in 1977 (10 as an Angel, 8 as a Yankee, during which he got 2 PA in Fenway and hit .500/.500/2.000), he was an NL player until 1984 with Oakland. So he compiled those absurd Fenway numbers (.276/.345/.816 in 84 PAs) mostly when he was a .239/.296/.450 hitter (his three year line with Oakland)
   19. Darren Posted: May 16, 2010 at 02:24 PM (#3534020)
@14: I don't think Ortiz will keep up this K rate either, but it is pretty concerning. In a quick look, I'm having a hard time finding a 100 PA period in his career where he was close to this K rate. It's a concern.

Ortiz had a very nice showing in that nightmare of a game last night. He looked like the .330 version of Big Papi, going with the pitch for a couple of singles in key situations. 2 Ks though. :)
   20. McCoy Posted: May 16, 2010 at 02:32 PM (#3534024)
Papi leads the league in pitches per PA (50 or more PA) at 4.5 P/PA, so he is contributing to getting to the other teams BP a bit quicker. The state of some teams middle relief is a horror, so this is important for a teams overall offenseive production.

Also, in case anyone has not noticed it, the average DH so far in 2010 is hitting 237/322/393/715


So how many PA does Papi have by the middle innings? 2? 3? So that 9 to 13 pitches on his part. The typical hitter is going to see 6 to 10 pitches by that point. Papi ain't doing jack by sitting on pitches in terms of getting to middle relief. If he wants to help his team get to middle relief quicker then he should hit more home runs.
   21. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: May 16, 2010 at 03:12 PM (#3534049)
For instance, today the Yankees were able to get Cervelli, Posada, and Teix into the lineup at the same time. If Nick Johnson wasn't hurt, they probably couldn't have done that.
This is a good point. If the Red Sox weren't saddled with Papi last year, George Kottaras could have made the lineup four or five times a week. And Jason Varitek could play more this year! Scrap the DH - just run your backup catcher out there. It's the obvious solution.

EDIT: This was, of course, unnecessarily snarky, and TVE's underlying point that the DH slot can allow you to give somewhat more rest to aging players is fairly taken - though I think the effect is only a small one. I just wanted to snark at the hilarious love affair of Yankee fans with their backup catcher's obvious fluke 60 PA.
   22. Home Run Teal & Black Black Black Gone! Posted: May 16, 2010 at 03:15 PM (#3534050)
Kingman is basically more powerful, worse defensively Tony Batista. Batista in 2000-2001 with the Orioles was making over $5m a year.
   23. Heinie Mantush (Krusty) Posted: May 16, 2010 at 04:19 PM (#3534076)
And Daniel Nava.


And Mike Crudale.
   24. Dan Posted: May 16, 2010 at 08:09 PM (#3534226)
Is anyone else finding this team just not fun to watch? It's not a *bad* team by any means; I expect they'll still win around 90 games. But I just haven't enjoyed watching them play.
   25. Darren Posted: May 16, 2010 at 08:26 PM (#3534246)
You didn't enjoy Lackey today? He had everything--lack of command, no stuff, made a stupid fielding blunder, lost his cool, and not very nice to look at. What am I missing?

You didn't enjoy this team having Willis/Lester and Galaraga/Lackey matchups and losing, not one, but both of them? One with a massive collapse that included ANOTHER runner being gunned out at home easily?
   26. rLr Is King Of The Romans And Above Grammar Posted: May 16, 2010 at 08:35 PM (#3534250)
You didn't enjoy Lackey today? He had everything--lack of command, no stuff, made a stupid fielding blunder, lost his cool, and not very nice to look at. What am I missing?

He's planning on a bout of ferocious flatulence during the flight to New York.
   27. Chip Posted: May 16, 2010 at 08:42 PM (#3534258)
You didn't enjoy Lackey today? He had everything--lack of command, no stuff, made a stupid fielding blunder, lost his cool, and not very nice to look at. What am I missing?


Also, a corollary to the lack of command: inability to close out batters after getting to two strikes against them. The incredibly long AB by the execrable Avila which resulted in a walk being the salient example.

The whole performance was what you'd expect from a AAA callup, not a blue chip veteran.
   28. Phil Coorey is a T-Shirt Salesman Posted: May 17, 2010 at 02:59 AM (#3534423)
I'd be enjoying them fine if the were in the West - what a ####### joke that division is
   29. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: May 17, 2010 at 03:10 AM (#3534427)
I'd be enjoying them fine if the were in the West - what a ####### joke that division is
It will be interesting to see if the third place team in the AL East can pull off a better record than the AL West winner. It has been done before (the 2005 Marlins went 83-79 and finished third while the Padres went 82-80 to win the West) but it must be pretty rare.
   30. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: May 17, 2010 at 03:32 AM (#3534431)
It will be interesting to see if the third place team in the AL East can pull off a better record than the AL West winner. It has been done before (the 2005 Marlins went 83-79 and finished third while the Padres went 82-80 to win the West) but it must be pretty rare.


It's not terribly rare. The 08 Yankees did it (by 1/2 game over Chicago), as did the 07 Padres (over the Cubs). But the 08 NL season, when the top four teams in the NL Central finished with a better mark than the NL West champion is going to be tough to do in a full season. That leaves out the strike-shortened '94 season, when every team in both the AL East and AL Central divisions finished with better WP's than the team leading the AL West.
   31. tfbg9 Posted: May 17, 2010 at 07:54 PM (#3534834)
Hey, as long as its a 9 inning ballgame, the team's not so bad!
   32. Dan Posted: May 18, 2010 at 09:38 AM (#3535380)
Are you sure you don't mean an 8 inning game?
   33. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: May 18, 2010 at 09:54 AM (#3535382)
I am waiting anxiously for Fly's next Papelbon rant!
   34. Jolly Old St. Nick Still Gags in October Posted: May 18, 2010 at 10:58 AM (#3535385)
I am waiting anxiously for Fly's next Papelbon rant!

I am waiting anxiously for Papelbon's next game against the Yankees!
   35. jwb Posted: May 18, 2010 at 11:17 AM (#3535388)
the DH slot can allow you to give somewhat more rest to aging players is fairly taken
Sparky Anderson did this very effectively with the '84 Tigers.
   36. Fly should without a doubt be number !!!!! Posted: May 18, 2010 at 11:27 AM (#3535391)
I am waiting anxiously for Fly's next Papelbon rant!

I barely even have the energy for it anymore. I can't possibly imagine that there's any doubt that he's among the worst baseball players ever.
   37. OCD SS Posted: May 18, 2010 at 11:36 AM (#3535392)
It will be interesting to see if the third place team in the AL East can pull off a better record than the AL West winner.


I'm not sure the Blue Jays have the pitching to sustain their current .575 winning pct vs. the Rangers bolstering their line up from the farm...
   38. RJ in TO Posted: May 19, 2010 at 12:59 PM (#3536689)
I'm not sure the Blue Jays have the pitching to sustain their current .575 winning pct vs. the Rangers bolstering their line up from the farm...

I'm more concerned about the Jays offense collapsing than their pitching. They're scoring 5 runs a game on a 0.244 BA and 0.314 OBP, and (after Wells) the offense has been largely driven Bautista, Buck, and Gonzalez. There's no way that they can keep up that pace.
   39. Darren Posted: May 19, 2010 at 01:09 PM (#3536693)
2 games in a row with 0 Ks!

As unhappy as I've been with the season as a whole, I'm starting to get a little giddy about Ortiz, thinking he may end up with a .900 OPS.
   40. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: May 19, 2010 at 01:19 PM (#3536699)
I'm starting to get a little giddy about Ortiz, thinking he may end up with a .900 OPS.
Hell, if he starts running out his fly balls, he could get it up to 1.000
   41. Darren Posted: May 19, 2010 at 01:23 PM (#3536702)
I missed it. Did he dog it on his single in the 8th?
   42. TomH Posted: May 19, 2010 at 01:26 PM (#3536706)
badly
   43. Avoid running at all times.-S. Paige Posted: May 19, 2010 at 01:27 PM (#3536708)
#38
On the other hand, Adam Lind hasn't started hitting yet and Snider started showing signs right before his injury (dude has some bad luck). I don't think the offense will keep this up but this team is better than what some projection systems said. Romero and Marcum could be a formidable front of the rotation for a few years. And I like that Morrow deal.
   44. RJ in TO Posted: May 19, 2010 at 01:30 PM (#3536712)
Romero and Marcum could be a formidable front of the rotation for a few years.

I agree with this.

And I like that Morrow deal.

I hate this deal. Not because I miss League (who I also hated), but because Morrow is just incredibly frustrating to watch - every count goes to 3-2, and he's already had several walk-the-ballpark starts. The guy just has no idea where the ball is going once it leaves his hand.
   45. Darren Posted: May 19, 2010 at 07:00 PM (#3537097)
Something that I forgot, that was easy to forget, is that April has always been a bad month for Ortiz. His 08 April looks fairly similar to this year's. So when he started out badly this year, it seemed like he'd repeat 09, but in fact, he was repeating a pattern that has long existed for him. It's just that, as a somewhat diminished player, his crappy April is crappy than his prime Aprils.
   46. Darren Posted: May 20, 2010 at 02:21 AM (#3537556)
Another 0 K night and Papi at 248/314/523.
   47. Chip Posted: May 20, 2010 at 03:01 AM (#3537565)
Prime of his career Ortiz was the guy who went to the opposite field with power like he did tonight. He's done that more and more lately.
   48. tfbg9 Posted: May 20, 2010 at 03:45 PM (#3537857)
Papi at 248/314/523



Remember though, that these are the stats of "Platoon Papi", and a bit phonied-up for that reason. I can live with them.
   49. Dan Posted: May 20, 2010 at 04:23 PM (#3537909)
I wonder if his walk rate will rise again as pitchers realize he's actually hitting home runs again and stop challenging him quite as much.
   50. tjm1 Posted: May 20, 2010 at 08:57 PM (#3538205)
If he slugs .500 for the season, I think we'll all be happy. It would be almost impossible for him to do that without having an OBP of at least .310 or so. While .310/.500 would make for about as low a value .810 OPS as you could get, it still wouldn't be too bad.
   51. Dan Posted: May 22, 2010 at 02:06 AM (#3539555)
Friday night's game was an impressive display of managerial incompetence. Francona shows again why he failed miserably in the NL; he hasn't got the slightest clue how to manage when pinch-hitting is involved. First off, Darnell McDonald is left in to hit in the 8th inning vs. the RHP Herndon with 2 lefty bats on the bench in Ortiz and Hermida (hell, you can even count Van Every too for 3, plus Varitek a switch-hitter). Then Lowell is his choice to hit for the pitcher, another righty vs. the righty Herndon.

So then in the 9th when the tying run is at the plate in Bill Hall, with a lefty with a good slider on the mound (Romero), Lowell is already used, so Ortiz is the PH option available. I can't possibly imagine a worse way to deploy these players given this game and the situations presented.
   52. Darren Posted: May 26, 2010 at 03:28 AM (#3543112)
This doesn't even look like David Ortiz of late 2009, it looks like David Ortiz of 03-07. The results have just been awesome. They compare nicely to 2004:
2004, first 135 PA: .256 .333 .529 with 13 BB and 33 K
2010, first 134 PA: .258 .328 .550 with 13 BB and 40 K

I'm really having to restrain myself from thinking that he is back in a major way.
   53. Darren Posted: May 26, 2010 at 03:34 AM (#3543117)
Also, 2005, was .265 .320 .556 and 10/23 through 128 PA but then he had a huge next game.
   54. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: May 26, 2010 at 01:46 PM (#3543233)
Fun with endpoints!

During the Red Sox current hot streak, Ortz is hitting 409/480/909 with three walks and only two strikeouts.
   55. Joel W Posted: May 26, 2010 at 02:40 PM (#3543284)
He definitely looks locked in. Especially last night when he shot that laser to left field for the only two runs of the game, and the other night when he turned on the inside fastball for the homer to right.
   56. ellsbury my heart at wounded knee Posted: May 26, 2010 at 02:52 PM (#3543299)
I'm so glad Ortiz is looking like the Ortiz of old. It was no fun thinking he was cooked.

Should make for an interesting off-season.

EDIT: Oh wait! They have a 2011 option.
   57. Darren Posted: May 31, 2010 at 09:17 PM (#3546709)
929 OPS in 2010; 911 over the past calendar year.
   58. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: May 31, 2010 at 10:06 PM (#3546727)
Yep, no more complaints from me about Papi. It's always fascinating when a player can look so cooked but still turn it around.
   59. Darren Posted: May 31, 2010 at 11:06 PM (#3546753)
His 2010 OPS is higher than his career number.

Here's the other thing. He was only actually bad between July 08 and May 09. Everything else fits into his career fairly well, if you account for some expected dropoff because of age.
   60. karlmagnus Posted: June 01, 2010 at 11:59 AM (#3546975)
Personally I'll stick to my view that Ortiz is overrated and Wakefield is wonderful. This is just random fluctuation.
   61. TomH Posted: June 01, 2010 at 01:21 PM (#3546996)
Can you IMAGINE the chicken littles that would be in this forum if the Sawx were going through what the Phillies' bats are the past week-and-a-half? 10 runs scored in 9 games? Armageddon Apocalypse would be too kind compared to the pundits we'd be hearing.

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