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1. RollingWave Posted: April 08, 2011 at 02:24 AM (#3789933)In the first set, I'm taking the preseason projections as the baseline, the Sox "really" are a 96-win team and the Yankees "really" are a 93-win team.
%Chance of beating Yankees, previous to series: 44.9%
%Chance of beating Yankees, after 3-0 series sweep: 58.4%
%Chance of beating Yankees, after 2-1 series win: 49.2%
%Chance of beating Yankees, after 1-2 series loss: 40.1%
%Chance of beating Yankees, after 0-3 series sweep: 31.5%
Those are big swings, but none of them leave the Sox in truly terrible position over all. It's still early yet.
What if the Red Sox aren't as good as we though, but instead both clubs are "really" 93-win rosters?
previous to series: 32.4%
after 3-0 series win: 45.4%
after 2-1 series win: 36.5%
after 1-2 series loss: 28.2%
after 0-3 series loss: 21.0%
The thing that really hurts the Sox, here, is the initial cut in their projected quality. This is seen even more clearly in a third scenario, in which the Red Sox are projected to lose every single baseball game they play until the end of time:
previous to series: 0.0%
after 0-3 series loss: 0.0%
...and so the first blood sacrifice has been made... Dubront called up. Albers to DL, Aceves called up.
Carl Crawford LF
Dustin Pedroia 2B
Adrian Gonzalez 1B
Kevin Youkilis 3B
David Ortiz DH
J.D. Drew RF
Jarrod Saltalamacchia C
Jacoby Ellsbury CF
Marco Scutaro SS
Pitching: RHP John Lackey (0-1, 22.09)
The lineup changes look to me like Francona has not decided where Crawford should be in the lineup. He's been 3rd,3rd,7th,2nd,2nd,2nd and now 1st. Everyone else is pretty much set.
ellsbury ellsbury ellsbury ellsbury ellsbury ellsbury
pedroia pedroia pedroia crawford crawford crawford
crawford crawford gonzalez pedroia pedroia pedroia
youkilis gonzalez youkilis gonzalez gonzalez gonzalez
gonzalez youkilis ortiz youkilis youkilis youkilis
ortiz ortiz lowrie ortiz ortiz ortiz
cameron drew crawford drew drew drew
salty salty salty salty varitek salty
scutaro scutaro mcdonald scutaro scutaro scutaro
Sorry, looked prettier as I was typing it.
Michael the K said that Lackey has been two times worse than Hughes and his 11.25 ERA.
duh, reduh.
Sox three games better: 49.4% chance of beating Yankees
Sox equal to Yankees: 36.5% chance of beating Yankees
On the other hand, Papelbon looked better than he looked at any point last year, and probably better than almost all of 2009, too. 94-95 painting the corners, with a devastating split.
As I said before the series, I'll be really satisfied if the Yankees can take one game.
This is great because it not only puts a tremendously positive spin on what would normally be called 'panicking,' but also throws Theo into the mix so we'd have someone other than Tito to blame if it didn't 'work.'
But they finally won a game, so: Way to go Tito, after 6 games in which the players let you down completely, you've used your powers to make them win!
Also, doesn't it equally give us someone else to praise if it does "work"?
Anyway, I think it'd be clearly wrong to say that such low-leverage decisions add up to "panicking." You could call it pointless, if you don't like it, but changing the lineup and trying a new loogy are changes that won't add up to significant wins or losses. The "shake it up for the sake of shaking it up" managing personalities thing is likewise unlikely to make a big difference, but could either help or hurt around the edges.
EDIT: I mean, really. You're attributing a lot of hidden meaning to a pretty tossed-off little have-a-second-at-the-coffee-shop post while I was waiting for the game to start.
Just having some fun, really.
They really are two separate things, though, aren't they? I don't really see the reason to put them together, especially since Tito has been changing the lineup around since the team was 0-2. I'd say it's just as fair to call this messing with the lineup 'panicking' as it is to call it 'sending a message.' And it's just the sort of thing that would normally be called something that makes the players uptight and doesn't allow them to get to know their role.
Again, though, this was in fun (and it was done at my kitchen table!) so don't take it too seriously. Just remember, Tito is great and no actual events can change that. :)
through the night, as the song says.
Oh, #### Lackey
Giant and HD. It was difficult to watch the player introductions right in front of me instead of watching the video of the player introductions on the scoreboard.
The only thing missing was a clock. They have actually added a nice looking analog clock in right field but I can't see it from my seats. Normally I don't care but the guy who has the seats next to mine actually had to leave early today. He had brought his son to the game as a reward for getting into Colgate but the son was acting in a school play tonight so they had to leave at 4:30.
Anyone interested in some pictures, here are my shots of Opening Day. I'm not much of a photographer but it'll give you a bit of a sense of things.
Yeah, the new clock is behind the RF lights from my seat. And since it's analog, the hands blend in with the light tower supports. Useless for me.
First double digit K game in nearly 2 years. First decent curveball shown in at least that long.
But can he repeat it?
Finger was iced, and able to be flexed, etc.
Let's hope Sox quacks can't find way to screw this one up?
Throwing it for strikes too! Felt like 2007.
I hope they have extra security around the bullpen lest you get any ideas.
I will probably try to go again tomorrow, looks like tickets are well below face on stubhub.
Um, what?
Oh well, that '99 game was only one of the most memorable regular season Red Sox games of the last twenty years.
Anyway, back to the basketball thread...
I remember that game like it was yesterday. I'm afraid people will forget how good Pedro was, so I take every opportunity I can to make sure people dont take his time in Boston for granted. Just this offseason someone tried to tell me Lester was the best Sox pitcher since Clemens.
Beckett was incredible last night. Better control than I can ever remember from him. His best pitches were a couple tailing inside fastballs to lefties that were called strike 3s. Great curve too.
Just the other day mrsidiom and I were trying to explain to our son just how amazing peak Pedro was. It's nearly impossible to convey in words.
As for the offense: once again, the Sox put plenty of runners on base, but went 2-12 with RISP, and stranded 11 men on base. Some timely hitting would really be swell, guys.
When he's right (about 1 in 10 starts), he's a joy to watch pitch. But when he has the shitty fastball, he knows it, and we get this awful nibbling #### and meatball fastballs.
Some examples of games where he had it, followed by his average and max 4 seam fastball velocity according to Pitch F/X:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/BOS/BOS201005110.shtml - Avg 91.93, max 93.3
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/PHI/PHI201005220.shtml - Avg 92.93, max 94.8
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/CLE/CLE201006070.shtml - Avg 91.76, max 94.2
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/BOS/BOS201008050.shtml - Avg 93.03, max 94.8
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/NYA/NYA201009260.shtml - Avg 91.63, max 93.7
The Sox need to figure out how to fix his training, routine, throwing, etc to get him right more consistently. Good Dice-K is a great pitcher. Bad Daisuke doesn't even belong on this team. We need more of the good version.
Wake is done - was done the year before and the year before that - done done done done.
Let it go everyone he is DONE - he's like Weekend at Bernies really - he looks dead, pitches like it as well - is there someone holding him up with some strings like a puppet, cause all he missing is the sunglasses.
Lester in another must win game tomorrow - awesome.
It's arguably unnecessary to include "pitcher" if you're going to include "peak".
I love Wake, and I think you're generally wrong on him, but you're exactly right with this. Watching him jog in from the pen last night just looked painful.
Tonight's lineup:
LF Crawford
2B Pedroia
1B Gonzalez
DH Youkilis
3B Lowrie
CF Cameron
C Varitek
RF McDonald
SS Scutaro
I like this lineup. It's the first decent lineup we've had vs a lefty starter. No Ortiz batting 5th silliness, or Drew playing over McDonald, etc. McDonald has to play against LHP, otherwise just cut him and get another 1b/DH type to platoon with Ortiz and hit lefties.
Yeah, you could leave out pitcher, but you'd need about a dozen other qualifiers. Maybe under 170 pounds, curly-hair, no-chin players?
It's pretty laughably homerific that people think Pedro has a claim to best pitcher ever, even if you're talking about peak.
1. ####
2. Crawford is starting to hear it.
3. ####
4. 95 win pace the rest of the way gets us 90 wins. We're not doomed but man we gotta start winning some game.
5. I don't like replacing the theme from the "Pirates of the Caribbean" with the them from "The Good, The Bad and The Ugly" as the bullpen pitchers walk to the bullpen.
6. Once more with feeling...####
?????? The only way I can see NOT saying that Pedro had the best peak ever is if you completely ignore the offensive context of his peak years and the general level of competition. Who would you put above him?
Of course I guess I'm just another homerific Red Sox fan.
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