BBTF's Sox Therapy Discussion :: Hey, a Yankees series. I’m looking forward to that.

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1. RollingWave Posted: April 08, 2011 at 03:24 AM (#3789933)

From a Yankee fan POV, the 0-6 start means that Boston will win all 3 games this weekend.

2. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: April 08, 2011 at 03:08 PM (#3790166)

So, here are the binomial projections. I'm only looking at the Red Sox and the Yankees, and how likely the Sox are to finish ahead of the Yankees.

In the first set, I'm taking the preseason projections as the baseline, the Sox "really" are a 96-win team and the Yankees "really" are a 93-win team.

%Chance of beating Yankees, previous to series: 44.9%
%Chance of beating Yankees, after 3-0 series sweep: 58.4%
%Chance of beating Yankees, after 2-1 series win: 49.2%
%Chance of beating Yankees, after 1-2 series loss: 40.1%
%Chance of beating Yankees, after 0-3 series sweep: 31.5%

Those are big swings, but none of them leave the Sox in truly terrible position over all. It's still early yet.

What if the Red Sox aren't as good as we though, but instead both clubs are "really" 93-win rosters?

previous to series: 32.4%
after 3-0 series win: 45.4%
after 2-1 series win: 36.5%
after 1-2 series loss: 28.2%
after 0-3 series loss: 21.0%

The thing that really hurts the Sox, here, is the initial cut in their projected quality. This is seen even more clearly in a third scenario, in which the Red Sox are projected to lose every single baseball game they play until the end of time:

previous to series: 0.0%
after 0-3 series loss: 0.0%

3. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: April 08, 2011 at 03:09 PM (#3790167)

(I can take requests on any projected level of play you want to see numbers for.)

4. Textbook Editor Posted: April 08, 2011 at 04:08 PM (#3790222)

Lefthanded reliever Dennys Reyes was designated for assignment.

...and so the first blood sacrifice has been made... Dubront called up. Albers to DL, Aceves called up.

5. Dan Posted: April 08, 2011 at 04:15 PM (#3790232)

Crawford is batting leadoff today:

Carl Crawford LF
Dustin Pedroia 2B
Adrian Gonzalez 1B
Kevin Youkilis 3B
David Ortiz DH
J.D. Drew RF
Jarrod Saltalamacchia C
Jacoby Ellsbury CF
Marco Scutaro SS

Pitching: RHP John Lackey (0-1, 22.09)

6. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: April 08, 2011 at 04:22 PM (#3790239)

Between the shuffling of pieces in the back of the bullpen and the new lineups, Tito and Theo seem to be using low-leverage decisions to make a statement to the players. Hopefully it works.

7. Famous Original Joe C Posted: April 08, 2011 at 04:45 PM (#3790265)

After telling myself I wouldn't watch anything for a while after yesterday's game, I am now going to take a late lunch and watch the first few innings.

8. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: April 08, 2011 at 04:51 PM (#3790270)

Between the shuffling of pieces in the back of the bullpen and the new lineups, Tito and Theo seem to be using low-leverage decisions to make a statement to the players

The lineup changes look to me like Francona has not decided where Crawford should be in the lineup. He's been 3rd,3rd,7th,2nd,2nd,2nd and now 1st. Everyone else is pretty much set.

9. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: April 08, 2011 at 04:55 PM (#3790272)

01-Apr 02-Apr 03-Apr 05-Apr 06-Apr 07-Apr
ellsbury ellsbury ellsbury ellsbury ellsbury ellsbury
pedroia pedroia pedroia crawford crawford crawford
crawford crawford gonzalez pedroia pedroia pedroia
youkilis gonzalez youkilis gonzalez gonzalez gonzalez
gonzalez youkilis ortiz youkilis youkilis youkilis
ortiz ortiz lowrie ortiz ortiz ortiz
cameron drew crawford drew drew drew
salty salty salty salty varitek salty
scutaro scutaro mcdonald scutaro scutaro scutaro

Sorry, looked prettier as I was typing it.

10. SY Ruined School Lunches! Posted: April 08, 2011 at 04:55 PM (#3790273)

Nice lineup. If a horrible start is what it takes to get that for the rest of the year, I'm sort of ok with getting swept twice.

11. SY Ruined School Lunches! Posted: April 08, 2011 at 04:59 PM (#3790280)

Actually, now that I think about it, thats not really true

12. Repoz

Posted: April 08, 2011 at 05:02 PM (#3790286)

Pitching: RHP John Lackey (0-1, 22.09)

Michael the K said that Lackey has been two times worse than Hughes and his 11.25 ERA.

duh, reduh.

13. Dan Posted: April 08, 2011 at 06:11 PM (#3790395)

I'm really disappointed that Scutaro has started 6 of 7 games at SS. I was expecting a job share at SS like CF was in 2008.

14. John DiFool2 Posted: April 08, 2011 at 09:38 PM (#3790953)

Uh, win?

15. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: April 08, 2011 at 09:47 PM (#3790986)

New binomial numbers-

Sox three games better: 49.4% chance of beating Yankees
Sox equal to Yankees: 36.5% chance of beating Yankees

16. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: April 08, 2011 at 10:01 PM (#3791016)

On the one hand, Lackey looked utterly useless out there again. He couldn't command his fastball down in the zone, so he got lit up. (Ken Tremendous: "When John Lackey only gives up 3 extra-base hits in an inning, he heads back to the dugout thinking, 'Well, I did my job.'")

On the other hand, Papelbon looked better than he looked at any point last year, and probably better than almost all of 2009, too. 94-95 painting the corners, with a devastating split.

17. TVerik. Old Java Rodney. Posted: April 08, 2011 at 10:04 PM (#3791026)

Papelbon looked fabulous, as did Bard.

As I said before the series, I'll be really satisfied if the Yankees can take one game.

18. Darren

Posted: April 08, 2011 at 10:07 PM (#3791036)

Between the shuffling of pieces in the back of the bullpen and the new lineups, Tito and Theo seem to be using low-leverage decisions to make a statement to the players.

This is great because it not only puts a tremendously positive spin on what would normally be called 'panicking,' but also throws Theo into the mix so we'd have someone other than Tito to blame if it didn't 'work.'

But they finally won a game, so: Way to go Tito, after 6 games in which the players let you down completely, you've used your powers to make them win!

19. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: April 08, 2011 at 10:11 PM (#3791050)

This is great because it not only puts a tremendously positive spin on what would normally be called 'panicking,' but also throws Theo into the mix so we'd have someone other than Tito to blame if it didn't 'work.'

Which relievers get DFA'd is obviously Theo's call. He's in the mix by virtue of the things we're talking about.

Also, doesn't it equally give us someone else to praise if it does "work"?

Anyway, I think it'd be clearly wrong to say that such low-leverage decisions add up to "panicking." You could call it pointless, if you don't like it, but changing the lineup and trying a new loogy are changes that won't add up to significant wins or losses. The "shake it up for the sake of shaking it up" managing personalities thing is likewise unlikely to make a big difference, but could either help or hurt around the edges.

EDIT: I mean, really. You're attributing a lot of hidden meaning to a pretty tossed-off little have-a-second-at-the-coffee-shop post while I was waiting for the game to start.

20. Darren

Posted: April 08, 2011 at 10:45 PM (#3791128)

Mine was tossed off at a kitchen table so same deal! :)

Just having some fun, really.

Which relievers get DFA'd is obviously Theo's call. He's in the mix by virtue of the things we're talking about.

They really are two separate things, though, aren't they? I don't really see the reason to put them together, especially since Tito has been changing the lineup around since the team was 0-2. I'd say it's just as fair to call this messing with the lineup 'panicking' as it is to call it 'sending a message.' And it's just the sort of thing that would normally be called something that makes the players uptight and doesn't allow them to get to know their role.

Again, though, this was in fun (and it was done at my kitchen table!) so don't take it too seriously. Just remember, Tito is great and no actual events can change that. :)

21. tfbg9 Posted: April 08, 2011 at 11:22 PM (#3791182)

You guys toss off instead of panicking. Hey, whatever gets you
through the night, as the song says.

22. Jose is an Absurd Kahuna Posted: April 08, 2011 at 11:49 PM (#3791196)

I was there today, great crowd. People were excited, it felt like opening day, I was worries thanit migh be different bu it was great.

Oh, #### Lackey

23. Jose is an Absurd Kahuna Posted: April 08, 2011 at 11:50 PM (#3791197)

Also, not sure eha they showed in tv but the scoreboards...holy crap.

24. Darren

Posted: April 09, 2011 at 12:06 AM (#3791204)

can you expand on #23? Good? Bad?

25. villageidiom Posted: April 09, 2011 at 02:11 AM (#3791256)

can you expand on #23? Good? Bad?

EXCELLENT.

Giant and HD. It was difficult to watch the player introductions right in front of me instead of watching the video of the player introductions on the scoreboard.

26. Jose is an Absurd Kahuna Posted: April 09, 2011 at 03:55 AM (#3791300)

VI got it in one. They were just so clear, the picture was better than my TV in my living room (note to self; buy new TV). They used them well also, lots of information on the left-center scoreboard and the one in right center generally had the lineup and the scoring of each play.

The only thing missing was a clock. They have actually added a nice looking analog clock in right field but I can't see it from my seats. Normally I don't care but the guy who has the seats next to mine actually had to leave early today. He had brought his son to the game as a reward for getting into Colgate but the son was acting in a school play tonight so they had to leave at 4:30.

Anyone interested in some pictures, here are my shots of Opening Day. I'm not much of a photographer but it'll give you a bit of a sense of things.

27. Darren

Posted: April 09, 2011 at 01:30 PM (#3791396)

Great shots, Jose! Thanks for sharing.

28. villageidiom Posted: April 09, 2011 at 05:11 PM (#3791524)

The only thing missing was a clock.

Duh. Baseball has no clock.

Yeah, the new clock is behind the RF lights from my seat. And since it's analog, the hands blend in with the light tower supports. Useless for me.

29. tfbg9 Posted: April 11, 2011 at 03:21 AM (#3793131)

Beckett, it still being only April 10th and all I know, won us a very big game tonight.

30. Dan Posted: April 11, 2011 at 03:24 AM (#3793136)

It was nice to win, but IMO it was a far bigger deal that Beckett showed good velocity, movement, and location with all of his pitches.

31. tfbg9 Posted: April 11, 2011 at 03:28 AM (#3793137)

2 and 7 never looked this good to anybody.

32. Chip Posted: April 11, 2011 at 03:42 AM (#3793145)

It was nice to win, but IMO it was a far bigger deal that Beckett showed good velocity, movement, and location with all of his pitches.

First double digit K game in nearly 2 years. First decent curveball shown in at least that long.

But can he repeat it?

33. Fly should without a doubt be number !!!!! Posted: April 11, 2011 at 03:47 AM (#3793148)

I'm going tomorrow, Tuesday, and Friday. I hope I can see the clock from my seat.

34. tfbg9 Posted: April 11, 2011 at 04:56 AM (#3793160)

Per Pete Abe, Gonzo's pinkie OK, no x-rays needed.
Finger was iced, and able to be flexed, etc.
Let's hope Sox quacks can't find way to screw this one up?

35. RollingWave Posted: April 11, 2011 at 07:24 AM (#3793183)

Well, the Yankees won infinity % more games than I had anticipated.

36. Pingu Posted: April 11, 2011 at 02:12 PM (#3793259)

....so can I open my eyes now?

37. Famous Original Joe C Posted: April 11, 2011 at 02:22 PM (#3793265)

First decent curveball shown in at least that long.

Throwing it for strikes too! Felt like 2007.

38. Famous Original Joe C Posted: April 11, 2011 at 02:23 PM (#3793268)

I'm going tomorrow, Tuesday, and Friday. I hope I can see the clock from my seat.

I hope they have extra security around the bullpen lest you get any ideas.

39. Weekly Journalist_ Posted: April 11, 2011 at 02:32 PM (#3793282)

Beckett was fabulous. In any normal circumstances I'm always ok with the Yankees winning 1 of 3 in Fenway, but that last game certainly augurs very good things for the Sox.

40. TVerik. Old Java Rodney. Posted: April 11, 2011 at 02:39 PM (#3793289)

I'm stunned - STUNNED - that CC's ERA went down. You watch that game and he had nothing.

41. Nasty Nate Posted: April 11, 2011 at 02:55 PM (#3793301)

I went last night - couldn't see the clock from section 10. The new scoreboards looked great. It would have been a killer game to lose with all the LOB, but everything worked out.

I will probably try to go again tomorrow, looks like tickets are well below face on stubhub.

42. PJ Martinez Posted: April 11, 2011 at 05:59 PM (#3793467)

From this game writeup:

The last pitcher to work at least eight innings, allow two hits or fewer and record 10 Ks for the Sox was Pedro Martinez on July 25, 2002 against Tampa. And Beckett is the first Red Sox pitcher since Ray Culp (1968) to accomplish that feat against the Yankees.

Um, what?

Oh well, that '99 game was only one of the most memorable regular season Red Sox games of the last twenty years.

43. Joel W Posted: April 11, 2011 at 06:00 PM (#3793471)

The best thing with Beckett I thought was the mixing of pitches. In years passed he'd just give up on pitches early in outings, last night, it was just everything, whenever. Excited by the prospect of odd year Beckett being odd year Beckett.

44. Jose is an Absurd Kahuna Posted: April 11, 2011 at 06:05 PM (#3793477)

42 - I'm suspecting that either the "at Fenway" caveat or "no runs allowed" caveat should have been part of that Ray Culp stat. Bad on ESPN for blowing that.

45. PJ Martinez Posted: April 11, 2011 at 06:06 PM (#3793480)

Yeah, probably the shutout thing or something. It says something about the state of my Red Sox fandom that I'm more worked up about a random accidental slight to the legacy of Pedro Martinez than I was about an 0-6 start.

Anyway, back to the basketball thread...

46. Joel W Posted: April 11, 2011 at 06:11 PM (#3793490)

Yeah I was thinking it was the no-runs allowed thing. F You Chili Davis.

47. SoSH U at work Posted: April 11, 2011 at 06:12 PM (#3793492)

Without caveats, the first part was wrong too. Lester did it in 2009.

48. Pingu Posted: April 11, 2011 at 06:21 PM (#3793504)

Re: #42, as soon as you said that I thought....oh the Chili Davis game.

I remember that game like it was yesterday. I'm afraid people will forget how good Pedro was, so I take every opportunity I can to make sure people dont take his time in Boston for granted. Just this offseason someone tried to tell me Lester was the best Sox pitcher since Clemens.

Beckett was incredible last night. Better control than I can ever remember from him. His best pitches were a couple tailing inside fastballs to lefties that were called strike 3s. Great curve too.

49. villageidiom Posted: April 11, 2011 at 06:48 PM (#3793532)

I'm afraid people will forget how good Pedro was, so I take every opportunity I can to make sure people dont take his time in Boston for granted. Just this offseason someone tried to tell me Lester was the best Sox pitcher since Clemens.

Homegrown, possibly. Otherwise, yeah, clearly it's Pedro.

Just the other day mrsidiom and I were trying to explain to our son just how amazing peak Pedro was. It's nearly impossible to convey in words.

50. dave h Posted: April 11, 2011 at 07:04 PM (#3793545)

I feel like I'm in bizzaro world every time a HOF discussion mentions Pedro as some borderline candidate. There's no need to include the caveat "since Clemens" or even "Sox pitcher". During his peak, Pedro was the best pitcher ever.

51. Dan Posted: April 12, 2011 at 03:15 AM (#3794058)

The Red Sox really should have been in the game tonight even after Matsuzaka's failure to pitch. But then Wakefield came in and put it out of reach. The man needs to face the facts and just retire already.

As for the offense: once again, the Sox put plenty of runners on base, but went 2-12 with RISP, and stranded 11 men on base. Some timely hitting would really be swell, guys.

52. Dan Posted: April 12, 2011 at 04:25 AM (#3794086)

Also: what the #### gives with Matsuzaka? At the end of Spring Training, he had his arm strength high enough that he was throwing 92-95 on his fastball, and then in the regular season he comes out throwing 89-91. What the hell is he doing now that he lost that mcuh velocity and life on his fastball? Throwing too much before the game? Not enough long toss? Too much long toss?

When he's right (about 1 in 10 starts), he's a joy to watch pitch. But when he has the shitty fastball, he knows it, and we get this awful nibbling #### and meatball fastballs.

Some examples of games where he had it, followed by his average and max 4 seam fastball velocity according to Pitch F/X:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/BOS/BOS201005110.shtml - Avg 91.93, max 93.3
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/PHI/PHI201005220.shtml - Avg 92.93, max 94.8
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/CLE/CLE201006070.shtml - Avg 91.76, max 94.2
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/BOS/BOS201008050.shtml - Avg 93.03, max 94.8
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/NYA/NYA201009260.shtml - Avg 91.63, max 93.7

The Sox need to figure out how to fix his training, routine, throwing, etc to get him right more consistently. Good Dice-K is a great pitcher. Bad Daisuke doesn't even belong on this team. We need more of the good version.

53. Phil Coorey. Posted: April 12, 2011 at 05:08 AM (#3794097)

#### Dice he is a ####### gutless #### - trade him to an NL team and get him the #### away from Boston.

Wake is done - was done the year before and the year before that - done done done done.

Let it go everyone he is DONE - he's like Weekend at Bernies really - he looks dead, pitches like it as well - is there someone holding him up with some strings like a puppet, cause all he missing is the sunglasses.

Lester in another must win game tomorrow - awesome.

54. Fly should without a doubt be number !!!!! Posted: April 12, 2011 at 11:47 AM (#3794139)

The scoreboards sure are nice. Can't see the clock from my seats, though. Hard to imagine you can see that clock from any seats.

55. Fly should without a doubt be number !!!!! Posted: April 12, 2011 at 11:49 AM (#3794141)

56. Fly should without a doubt be number !!!!! Posted: April 12, 2011 at 11:51 AM (#3794143)

Let it go everyone he is DONE - he's like Weekend at Bernies really - he looks dead, pitches like it as well - is there someone holding him up with some strings like a puppet, cause all he missing is the sunglasses.

I love Wake, and I think you're generally wrong on him, but you're exactly right with this. Watching him jog in from the pen last night just looked painful.

57. Dan Posted: April 12, 2011 at 07:32 PM (#3794704)

Even though it's the Rays now, since there's no new thread:

Tonight's lineup:

LF Crawford
2B Pedroia
1B Gonzalez
DH Youkilis
3B Lowrie
CF Cameron
C Varitek
RF McDonald
SS Scutaro

I like this lineup. It's the first decent lineup we've had vs a lefty starter. No Ortiz batting 5th silliness, or Drew playing over McDonald, etc. McDonald has to play against LHP, otherwise just cut him and get another 1b/DH type to platoon with Ortiz and hit lefties.

58. Darren

Posted: April 12, 2011 at 11:12 PM (#3794935)

I feel like I'm in bizzaro world every time a HOF discussion mentions Pedro as some borderline candidate. There's no need to include the caveat "since Clemens" or even "Sox pitcher". During his peak, Pedro was the best pitcher ever.

It's arguably unnecessary to include "pitcher" if you're going to include "peak".

Yeah, you could leave out pitcher, but you'd need about a dozen other qualifiers. Maybe under 170 pounds, curly-hair, no-chin players?

It's pretty laughably homerific that people think Pedro has a claim to best pitcher ever, even if you're talking about peak.

59. Jose is an Absurd Kahuna Posted: April 13, 2011 at 03:27 AM (#3795347)

Couple thoughts from tonight's game;

1. ####

2. Crawford is starting to hear it.

3. ####

4. 95 win pace the rest of the way gets us 90 wins. We're not doomed but man we gotta start winning some game.

5. I don't like replacing the theme from the "Pirates of the Caribbean" with the them from "The Good, The Bad and The Ugly" as the bullpen pitchers walk to the bullpen.

6. Once more with feeling...####

60. Darren

Posted: April 13, 2011 at 03:35 AM (#3795350)

I thought the shot by Ortiz was out in the 9th. Getting my hopes up, I guess.

61. Petunia inquires about ponies Posted: April 13, 2011 at 04:14 AM (#3795365)

Okay, positives. Great lineup. Love Youk DH'ing with Lowrie at 3B. Nice to be able to (and for Tito to be willing to) have Ellsbury/Drew/Ortiz on the bench ready for the 9th. I wasn't able to watch any of the game, but it sounds like Lester pitched well. Um...

62. Dan Posted: April 13, 2011 at 05:50 AM (#3795397)

You missed the Sox hitting about 10 line drives and hard grounders right at fielders, and the Rays scoring on bleeders and blimps. Just a really frustrTing game all around.

63. Avoid Running At All Times- S. Paige Posted: April 13, 2011 at 06:31 AM (#3795407)

Lowrie just gets hits. I wonder if or when he becomes a regular part of the line-up. Should Scutaro really be standing in his way?

64. Avoid Running At All Times- S. Paige Posted: April 13, 2011 at 07:45 AM (#3795420)

Lowrie just hits. I wonder if or when he becomes a regular part of the line-up. Should Scutaro really be standing in his way?

65. Avoid Running At All Times- S. Paige Posted: April 13, 2011 at 07:47 AM (#3795422)

Double post

66. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick

Posted: April 13, 2011 at 11:53 AM (#3795434)

It's pretty laughably homerific that people think Pedro has a claim to best pitcher ever, even if you're talking about peak.

?????? The only way I can see NOT saying that Pedro had the best peak ever is if you completely ignore the offensive context of his peak years and the general level of competition. Who would you put above him?

Of course I guess I'm just another homerific Red Sox fan.

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