Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Sox Therapy > Discussion
Sox Therapy
— Where Thinking Red Sox Fans Obsess about the Sox

Friday, March 23, 2018

Hope Springs Eternal (Sox Therapy Predictions)

As we head to the final non-competitive baseball weekend until November I thought it might be fun to just take a look at a few reasons why I personally feel very optimistic about 2018;

Pitching Pitching Pitching - So far in camp things have been about as smooth as possible on the pitching side.  Knock on wood etc…but the Sox are looking generally healthy in the rotation with David Price saying last week that he feels as good as he has in years at this point in camp.  Add to that generally positive news where there were potential pitfalls in the cases of Drew Pomeranz, Eduardo Rodriguez and Steven Wright and the Sox rotation looks good and with Brian Johnson showing good stuff as a seventh starter the depth looks solid.

Breakout Candidates - For all the bluster about the loss of David Ortiz last year the big problem for the offense was down years pretty much across the board.  A healthy Xander Bogaerts has shown a degree of pop this spring that we have not seen from him since 2013, Mookie Betts should improve based on improved BABIP alone and Andrew Benintendi and Rafael Devers come in with some time and confidence under their belt.  The Sox are well suited to see significant improvements up and down the lineup in 2018.

Proving Their Worth - The Sox have two key players on either end of the free agent spectrum that should be motivated to make an impact.  New boy J.D. Martinez is coming into what is almost a perfect offensive situation and it is in the DNA of every Red Sox fan to lose his or her mind over big right-handed sluggers.  If he does anything approximating what he has done the last couple of years you can expect to see a lot of “J.D. Martinez 28” jerseys and shirseys about town in very short order.  On the other side of the ledger is Hanley Ramirez.  Few players in baseball have annoyed me as much as Hanley who in my opinion has squandered much of his talent over the years.  As good as he’s been he could have been so much more.  But he comes in motivated to offset a down year last year and an expectation that he is facing free agency in nine months.  I expect a big year out of Hanley.

Feeling Good - The talking point that last year’s team wasn’t a lot of fun was an idea that really took hold.  I did not understand it then and do not understand it now.  That was a team loaded with fun guys.  With that said this year’s team is getting a pretty friendly ride from the press right now and it is pretty clear that for whatever reason Alex Cora is a heck of a lot more popular than John Farrell with the press(side note: here is the list of every manager besides John Farrell to win 3 division titles or league titles in the pre-division era with the Sox; ”  “).

I am optimistic about this team to the extreme.  I think this is a very good team and without naming names I think other teams in the AL East are getting bigged up for winning December but have holes potential holes.  Bring on baseball!!!

Some predictions;

over/under Martinez HR - 37.5

over/under Price Wins - 16.5

infield by descending WAR: Bogaerts, Devers, Pedroia, Nunez, Ramirez, Moreland

over/under Swihart starts as catcher - 22.5

over/under JBJ WAR - 3.8

minor league breakout - Josh Ockimey

over/under wins - 96.5

Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: March 23, 2018 at 02:31 PM | 31 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Related News:

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. villageidiom Posted: March 26, 2018 at 09:40 AM (#5642958)
I'll take the over on JBJ, and the under on the rest. I do think Price will have a great season when healthy, but I also expect he'll spend enough time on the DL (or pitching when he should be on the DL) that he won't get to 17.

Bold prediction: of all the infielders you listed, Pedroia will have the lowest WAR. Yes, even lower than Hanley.
   2. Nasty Nate Posted: March 26, 2018 at 09:55 AM (#5642971)
BTW, here's the thread with the over/unders from last year. Only the comments are view-able to me, but I think I've figured out the numbers. Here they are along with the actual results:

Hanley Ramirez Homers - 25.5 - Under (23)
Sandy Leon Most Starts as Catcher - the Field (Vazquez 85, Leon 77)
David Price Starts - 22.5 - Under (11)
Mitch Moreland OPS+ - 105 - Under (99)
Jackie Bradley Jr. OPS+ - 110 - Under (89)
Pablo Sandoval WAR - 2.2 - haha
Chris Sale Wins - 15.5 - Over (17)
   3. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: March 26, 2018 at 09:58 AM (#5642974)
Pablo Sandoval WAR - 2.2 - haha


That's awesome. Just missed it.
   4. villageidiom Posted: March 26, 2018 at 04:19 PM (#5643358)
Only the comments are view-able to me
Fun with editor status! I've refreshed the expiration date for the thread for another month so it can be read again. You have them all correct, but are missing two:

Robby Scott Appearances - Fernando Abad Appearances - OVER (57-48, though Abad had the better ERA+)
Team Wins - 91.5 - OVER (93)

In the comments I'd also added the bonus round of infielders by descending WAR, and correctly had Bogaerts > Moreland > Pedroia, but I was dumb enough not to put Sandoval last.
   5. Nasty Nate Posted: March 26, 2018 at 04:40 PM (#5643375)
It's quirky. When I am on the page that lists the old (un-refreshed) Sox Therapy posts, the first part of the post is visible, but when one clicks on "Read More" or the link to the comments, that first part of the post is gone. They should label it "Read Less," amirite?
   6. villageidiom Posted: March 26, 2018 at 05:20 PM (#5643405)
It's quirky. When I am on the page that lists the old (un-refreshed) Sox Therapy posts, the first part of the post is visible, but when one clicks on "Read More" or the link to the comments, that first part of the post is gone. They should label it "Read Less," amirite?
Yes. On the pages that list threads they always give a preview, whether the thread has expired or not. It's weird.

But on the one you linked earlier you should be able to read it from within the thread now. Just refresh the page.

If I'm around and you need an old Sox Therapy thread made visible again let me know.
   7. Nasty Nate Posted: March 26, 2018 at 05:30 PM (#5643417)
Yes, I can see it now.

Even though none of the good individual outcomes except Chris Sale's wins came in, they went over for team wins.
   8. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: March 26, 2018 at 07:23 PM (#5643454)
over/under wins - 96.5


D*mn, I really hope I'm wrong on this but I've got to take the under. I find it really hard to project any team above 95 wins regardless of what the stats say. Dudes get injured, divorced, kids get sick, family members pass on, etc. etc. Just life happens and it effects results. I know it's not very sabermetricky, but it just is sometimes.
   9. Petunia inquires about ponies Posted: March 27, 2018 at 01:30 AM (#5643526)
Martinez HR - 37.5
Under (33)

over/under Price Wins - 16.5
Over (19)

over/under Swihart starts as catcher - 22.5
Way over (52)

over/under JBJ WAR - 3.8
I think we've seen who he is at this point. Under (3.1)

over/under wins - 96.5
Like Hugh, I think it's just not reasonable to project that high. Though I do like them to win the division. What are their Vegas odds to win it all? Last time I made that bet was 2004. Under (93)

Bonus question:
Bogaerts, Hanley, Devers, Nunez, Pedroia, Moreland
   10. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: March 27, 2018 at 07:31 AM (#5643542)
Pablo Sandoval WAR - 2.2 - haha

That's awesome. Just missed it.

If the Giants had given him the playing time, he could have easily made it! I mean he was only 0.8 WAR off. That is a minus, and not a hyphen, right?
   11. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: March 27, 2018 at 07:35 AM (#5643543)
What are their Vegas odds to win it all? Last time I made that bet was 2004.

Seeing 10/1 to 14/1, depending on the site. Pretty bad odds, considering the Yankees odds are lower.
   12. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: March 27, 2018 at 08:37 AM (#5643557)
Reports on Devers is that he's bruised but should be ready to go. Man that was awkward. One rule I'd put in place if I were running an MLB team is significant fines for guys diving headfirst into home plate. As bad as it is at first base at least there isn't a dude wearing a suit of armor when you get there.
   13. Answer Guy, without side hustles. Posted: March 27, 2018 at 08:45 AM (#5643564)
It is pretty amazing how many games they won in 2017 given how many things went wrong.
Price started a total of 11 games.
Porcello reverted back to his 2015 form.
Hanley sucked.
Sandoval was literally worse than worthless.
Until Devers was called up the 3B situation was as bad as the weakest spots on rebuilding teams; Deven Marerro came to the plate 183 times.
Moreland and his 99 OPS+ batted 4th/5th more often than not.
Pedroia missed a big chunk of the season.
Bradley, Bogaerts, and Betts all to varying degrees underperformed expectations.

As such, I'm fairly bullish on their chances this season.
   14. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: March 27, 2018 at 08:50 AM (#5643567)
AG gets to the heart of it for me. There is so much low hanging fruit on this team.

Incidentally Pedroia had some interesting comments about Farrell yesterday. I wouldn't say negative exactly but basically that Farrell's tension carried over to the rest of the team. It sounds to me like he was so worried about his job that he made every game life or death.
   15. TomH Posted: March 27, 2018 at 02:36 PM (#5643832)
The Sawx won so many games mostly because they timed their runs well. As such, I'm fairly bearish on their chances this season. The injuries in 2017 were not worse than typical; and Pedroia may also miss a chunk of THIS season.

I call 88 wins, a WC game win courtesy of Mr Sale, and then an ALDS 3-1 spanking.
   16. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: March 27, 2018 at 03:15 PM (#5643871)
The injury thing is a good point though I would argue that a generally young/prime team is going to fare better in that regard but that's a fair concern. Not sure where you're getting the timing of their runs thing. Their Pythagorean Record and actual record were dead on. If you use BP's 2nd and 3rd order winning percentages then they overperformed some but not a lot and between the issues AG raises in #13 plus the addition of JDM I feel pretty confident.
   17. Nasty Nate Posted: March 27, 2018 at 03:24 PM (#5643879)
Not sure where you're getting the timing of their runs thing.
Their stellar extra-inning record suggests some good timing.
   18. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: March 27, 2018 at 03:35 PM (#5643888)
I guess, but the overall performance suggests they wound up where they should be expected. They were 6th in the AL in one run game winning percentage, 4th in games decided by 4+ runs. I mean they could be worse for a number of reasons but I don't think there is any evidence they were fortunate last year.
   19. TomH Posted: March 27, 2018 at 07:39 PM (#5643971)
My timing comment was not stated very clearly. I was more thinking about the fact that they won their division was largely due to the Yankees' horrible timing (wins << talent). Which probably won't happen again.
   20. Bad Fish Posted: March 27, 2018 at 09:00 PM (#5643998)
Yeah, the MFY's will pound the ball, but their starting pitching is built out of under-desk-gum and rubber bands you find on the sidewalk, and their power hitting 1st baseman just got really hurt, again. It's a pretty even fight.
   21. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: March 28, 2018 at 08:51 AM (#5644082)
The Yankees are good but I think people are seriously overrating them. With the injury to Bird they are starting near replacement level players at three positions and I'm highly skeptical of the rotation. The bullpen is going to cover a lot of the rotation's ills but they are very much a stars and stiffs team. Frankly I prefer that because a good org (which the Yanks are) can usually fill those holes as the year goes on but as Fish says, I think it's pretty even. I'd give the Sox the edge but not by any meaningful amount and there is a very good case to pick the Yankees as well.
   22. Toby Posted: March 28, 2018 at 09:45 AM (#5644099)
I think we go as far as the pitching can take us. My concern is that Price, Pomeranz, and Rodriguez aren’t going to hold up over the season. Those three guys are the key to the season.

Of course, we are just going to get knocked off by Cleveland or Houston, but whatever. The team should be fun to watch and we could have some really great storylines if things break the right way.
   23. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: March 28, 2018 at 10:17 AM (#5644115)
Of course, we are just going to get knocked off by Cleveland or Houston, but whatever.


I don't know why you'd say this with any level of certainty on March 28th. The difference between the best and worst teams in baseball isn't that great and certainly that is true of the Sox and those teams. Are they better than the Sox? Yeah probably but not by so much that there is any reason to believe the Sox have no shot at beating them. Enjoy the next six months and worry about the playoffs if and when the Sox get there.
   24. Toby Posted: March 28, 2018 at 12:49 PM (#5644285)
I don’t have any certainty. Just acknowledging that the Sox are good but the Atros and Indians are a bit better. Of course, anything can happen in the playoffs.

I’m in no way down on the team, just managing expectations. Our odds of beating the Astros or Indians is slightly less than 50 percent.

How about: Our World Series victory will be all the sweeter because we are underdogs!
   25. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: March 28, 2018 at 01:02 PM (#5644301)
Now we're talking!
   26. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: March 29, 2018 at 01:12 PM (#5645010)
I don't love Hanley batting third, I do love Vazquez catching. If Sale can't pitch with Vazquez behind the plate he's not as good as we think (narrator: Sale is as good as they think).

Mookie Betts, RF
Andrew Benintendi, LF
Hanley Ramirez, 1B
J.D. Martinez, DH
Xander Bogaerts, SS
Rafael Devers, 3B
Eduardo Nunez, 2B
Jackie Bradley Jr., CF
Christian Vazquez, C
Chris Sale, LHP
   27. jmurph Posted: March 29, 2018 at 03:26 PM (#5645180)
It's amazing how adding a big bat in the middle of the lineup makes everything look better.
   28. Answer Guy, without side hustles. Posted: March 29, 2018 at 07:00 PM (#5645303)
It's amazing how adding a big bat in the middle of the lineup makes everything look better.


But not Joe Kelly.
   29. Chip Posted: March 29, 2018 at 07:25 PM (#5645310)
It was mystifying why Kelly wasn’t yanked after the second walk.
   30. villageidiom Posted: April 27, 2018 at 12:05 PM (#5661608)
Checking in at the 15% mark...

over/under Martinez HR - 37.5 - In HR/G he's on pace for 34. UNDER

over/under Price Wins - 16.5 - on pace for 13.5. UNDER

infield by descending WAR: Bogaerts, Devers, Pedroia, Nunez, Ramirez, Moreland - Right now: Hanley > Bogaerts > Devers > Moreland > Pedroia > Nunez.

over/under Swihart starts as catcher - 22.5 - on pace for 0. UNDER

over/under JBJ WAR - 3.8 - on pace for <1. UNDER

minor league breakout - Josh Ockimey - OPS under 600 so far in Portland, but it's just 9 games.

over/under wins - 96.5 - on pace for 128. OVER
   31. villageidiom Posted: August 06, 2018 at 10:04 AM (#5721629)
Reopening the thread comments to check in again. We're just about 70% of the way through the season. Let's see where we are.

over/under Martinez HR - 37.5 - He's at 33 now. He projects to be OVER before the end of August.

over/under Price Wins - 16.5 - 11 wins now, in 22 starts. Probably has 9 more starts coming, so he's on pace for around 15.5. UNDER

infield by descending WAR: Bogaerts, Devers, Pedroia, Nunez, Ramirez, Moreland - Right now: Bogaerts > Moreland > Ramirez > Pedroia > Devers > Nunez. Devers is 0.1 below Pedroia, and the latter is likely done for the season, so that ranking could easily flip. (My bold prediction was that Pedroia will have the lowest WAR of all of them didn't anticipate just how bad Nunez would be, but otherwise he could still end up below everyone else. Yes, including Hanley.)

over/under Swihart starts as catcher - 22.5 - has 7 through today. UNDER

over/under JBJ WAR - +3.8 - he's now at +1.1. Improved from earlier, but UNDER.

minor league breakout - Josh Ockimey - OPS 842 in 80 games in Portland, got promoted to AAA, and has 2 HR in 3 games there. Looking good.

over/under wins - 96.5 - At the end of April they were on pace for 128 wins, and we all thought they couldn't sustain that pace. We were all correct. Now after 4 months they're on pace for 113 wins. To fall short of the over/under they'd need to go (at best) 17-32 the rest of the way. OVER

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Dynasty League Baseball

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
1k5v3L
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

What Do We Got?
(46 - 10:03am, Aug 15)
Last: Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature

Extra Special
(31 - 1:16pm, Aug 13)
Last: Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature

Hope Springs Eternal (Sox Therapy Predictions)
(31 - 10:04am, Aug 06)
Last: villageidiom

Halfwayish Home
(81 - 7:00pm, Jul 31)
Last: Biff, highly-regarded young guy

Bigfoot, and Unicorns, and the Red Sox Bullpen
(31 - 8:32pm, Jul 14)
Last: dave h

It's Getting Drafty
(26 - 4:17pm, Jul 02)
Last: Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature

A Pleasant Trip So Far
(60 - 10:27am, Jul 01)
Last: John DiFool2

Where Are We?
(33 - 3:01pm, Jun 29)
Last: Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature

That Was Fun
(38 - 2:15pm, Jun 08)
Last: Darren

Lining Up The Minors
(29 - 9:53am, Jun 06)
Last: villageidiom

So That Happened
(7 - 6:53pm, May 30)
Last: Darren

At The Quarter Pole
(41 - 5:38pm, May 25)
Last: villageidiom

Enjoy This
(35 - 7:50pm, May 22)
Last: Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature

El Slumpo
(15 - 11:32pm, May 11)
Last: Answer Guy, without side hustles.

First Test Passed
(93 - 3:58pm, May 05)
Last: cercopithecus aethiops

Syndicate

Page rendered in 0.3299 seconds
61 querie(s) executed