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Anyway, it's been -- I say without, I hope, any sense of superiority -- somewhat amusing to witness usual midseason Sox-fan hysterics from (relatively and metaphorically speaking) some distance. I mean, they're what, 3 1/2 back, and July isn't over? Somehow winning the division is "very unlikely"? If Texas and Tampa Bay are serious threats for the Wild Card, isn't Boston a serious threat for the division?
Also, the "play your best lineup" complaint comes up ever year. Not quite as much with Francona as it did with Jimy Williams, perhaps (with reason), but it still comes up every year. Maybe it costs a game here and there, and that could matter. But most likely it's not the difference between getting to the playoffs and not.
(And as a sometime Sox fan hysteric, I do understand, of course.)
Their RF/RA is about the same as the Yankees, and they are only 3.5 out. "Very unlikely" is an overstatement.
Here, here, I concur. 3 days ago everyone was whinging that we couldn't score, not there's runs aplenty. One Paps implosion and one Penny reversion to normal do not make a trend.
I'm still confident of the usual 95 win season followed by some success in the playoffs.
The would need to be on a 21 games or better pace over a full year for the next 1/3 of the season than the Yankees to over take them. which is nearly impossible barring a Mets style meltdown AND a Rockies like hot streak.
The Red Sox is still in serious play for the division of course. depending on what you think about the Yankee / Red Sox matchup. are the Yankees doomed to lose the next 10 as well or does Boston winning the first 8 means that they're due to lose quiet a few of the remaining games . taking out head to head matchups. the Yankees are obviously blowing away the Sox .
As for the wild card. I think this is a reason for Boston or Tampa to make a play in the next couple of days. particularlly the later. who's window of opportunity is nowhere near as consistent as the Yankee / Red Sox year in and year out.
They've lost 6 1/2 games in the standings over the last 12 days. If that's not a good reason for pants-pissing, nothing is.
While somewhat unlikely, it's very possible that this team will miss the playoffs. They are an extremely flawed, old team. They play horrible defense, have no depth in the starting rotation and their big names in the lineup aren't producing (Drew, Bay, Papi). And Papelbon does a mean Joe Borowski impersonation.
They have gone 3-3 on a homestand comprised entirely of last-place teams. They have an upcoming road trip to BAL, TB, and NYY, and the way they are currently playing it's tough have have confidence in them on such a trip.
Do I think they had the wrong lineup last night? Hell, no.
Do I think the lineup was the reason they lost last night? If by "lineup" we mean "starting pitcher", then yes. Otherwise hell, no.
Boston's lineup has averaged just under 6 runs per game on this homestand. The pitching staff (and defense) has given up 1, 2, 3, 6, 8, and 9 runs in those games. Guess which ones they won, and which they lost.
Boston went on a road trip during which the pitching was fine but the hitting was weak. Now they're home, and the reverse is happening. I don't think any of this is something we should expect to persist. It sucks to watch it now, but now is not forever.
the team is slumping badly, and the yankees are hot. that could plausibly reverse in august
do you think this bullpen-straightening will be sustained? obviously Mariano will continue, but the other guys?
Aught-Seveners know better...
I'd put Boston at...60-40 to make the playoffs. Which is probably the best odds of anyone outside the Yankees, Dodgers and Phillies.
In June and July of 2007, the Red Sox went 28-26. They went to Kansas City and lost 2 of 3 in late July. We got frustrated. Our lead dwindled from 11 games to 1.5 before eventually winning the division. In 2004, the Red Sox went 25-26 in June and July. In 2008, the Red Sox went 27-24 in June and July. So, the best 3 Red Sox teams in recent memory, under Terry Francona, are a collective 80-76 in June and July.
Perhaps this whole "keep players rested, and don't always put the best lineup on the field" thing is a conscious decision that has worked out for them in years past. In August, btw, those 3 teams are 55-29.
The team just can't hit right now. Whether or not they need another bat is a question, but it's really not on the pitching.
As long as Boston don't implode the remaining 10 games against the Yankees 2006 style, they should probably do alright. beyond this year though. they need some serious readjustments
I am confident that:
- neither individual games since the ASB, nor the collection of those games, makes for a projectable trend.
- this team is certainly capable of making the playoffs, and is in a good position to do so.
- July is too early for me to be confident about October.
- if they don't make the playoffs, life will go on.
I save my worrying for more important things.
Also don't turn on sports radio until Brett Favre unretires.
NYT report
That's a different point. Obviously I don't really worry about the Yankees the way I worry about important stuff, but that's not the same as confidence or worry insofar as it relates to the team. It seems hard to believe you're not optimistic or pessimistic on the team in general.
ad hominem would be attacking you personally. calling you a pants pisser is just speaking the plain truth. :)
The Rangers have been playing well lately, and I think their offense has definitely underperformed to date. If Kinsler and Hamilton start improving, and I think it's reasonable to expect they will - then I think the Rangers will be right there. Tampa's RF/RA numbers suggest they're basically as good as Boston. So, honestly - I really don't see why they wouldn't be worried.
Sure, they're the favorites to win the Wild Card, but it's not even close to approaching a lock.
his defense is apparently very good at catcher, aside from his arm. i'm not worried about him catching wakefield. the best lineup going forward will probably have vmart in every day, and will see (alternately) tek and lowell sitting on the bench. i'm getting kind of excited to see him in a sox uniform.
I like the Kotchman move, too, assuming he's as good with the glove as they say.
Yankees love losing in bunches - strange season all round
So pants-pissers, where are you now? 5 days ago the above quote was written and we were 3 1/2 out. Now 1/2 game out, we've got a nice addition to the lineup, Beckett and Lester are doing their thing and all we really need to do is squeeze a win out of the other 3 starters each set of 5 games. Take 3 out of every 5 games and end up on 95 or so wins. Voila, simple stuff.
I am confident of the 95 win season and a berth in the playoffs, after that should be fun.
Shame we couldn't have thrown together a Buchholz, Penny et. al for Halliday package. Happy with v-mart so far though. Got to give some raps to Theo and FO for trying to get some stuff done to keep the team going forward...
How about Putting in the Best Lineup?
Isn't that what Don Zimmer did back in '78?
I was in attendance today in B'more. He caught some bad breaks in that some balls found holes in the defense. Still he was very hittable and walked a lot of guys. He walked the worst guy in the lineup by far with one out and of course that started a 6-run inning.
The offense really stepped it up, to put it mildly, and te Sox pen is better than Baltimore's. But today didn't exactly fill me with confidence.
Ask Bill Lee.
Only ####### Dice it seems - jesus - glad I slept in
he really needs to learn how to pitch with runners on. i thought they should have put him in the bullpen (in AAA to start maybe?) and tell him he has to pitch out of the stretch until he figures it out. if he can figure that out, he's going to be really good.
as for daisuke, i miss that guy! who knows how he did it, but he was damn effective last year. if he's healthy, he's the 3rd best starter on the team.
He's been given numerous chances to contribute and has ###### them all up. It's time to consider how much rope he really should be given. People keep saying "he's going to be good" and I simply don't see it. He's been consistently awful at the major league level for over a year now. He's not 22, he's almost 25 (only 7 months younger than Lester) and the shine is coming off of him in a big way. At some point he needs to produce positive results.
i wonder if he can even throw a decent curve from the stretch. he's got that extreme over the top 12-6 curve ... can he get that arm slot without a full windup? if you think about it, the only guys that feature that 12-6 curve are lefties with a big leg kick in their stretch delivery.
There's like an 87% chance he'll be pitching in SD next year (as part of the impending winter deal for Adrian Gonzalez), right? Assuming he finishes the year with a sub-6 ERA...
By the way, what's the deal with Reddick? I haven't been able to watch the games this weekend, but on the highlights, the ball just jumps off his bat. My quickie understanding of his prospect status was major league power, can't hit major league curveball - is this probably just a fluke run before hte league figures him out?
jmurph - I doubt the Sox would go after Gonzalez after acquiring Martinez, unless they plan on playing Martinez everyday at C next year, which I didn't think was the plan.
Oh I definitely see them going after him. If SD really does decide to trade him, I don't see anyway the Sox sit that one out.
On Reddick- I was at the game Saturday and he does not look like a very big guy, so the power was surprising to me. I see he's listed at 6'2, but that seems like a stretch.
I'm starting to kind of give up on Buchholz. I would still feel fine if he was slotted at the back end of next year's rotation, but the promise he showed in 07 has all but faded away for me.
Funnily enough, I reckon Buchholz would do really well in SD. Its a pretty relaxed place overall and that cavernous park will help, but he definitely needs a change of scenery.
Bring on Bowden. Let's see what he has.
This is as ridiculous as anything I've ever read here. The division lead can change 8 more times before the season ends, and not just flip flopping Boston and NY. Seriously. Every year, some people act as if they're witnessing their first pennant race.
Whilst I agree, my point for the past few years has been that it doesn't really matter if we win the division. The FO builds a 95 win team, we make the playoffs and go from there. This FO and Tito have clearly shown in the past that winning the East title is secondary to winning the series. It may seem an obvious point but the Sox have clearly not panicked in the past when the season approaches the business end keeping their eye on the ultimate prize. Sure the east title is nice, but such trinkets pale in comparison to the world series title.
I do not see a 95-win team here. Sure they are on pace to win 95 games, but I look at the rest of this schedule and how they've been playing lately and don't see them keeping that pace. They're not going to do much better than .500 as long as the bottom three spots in the rotation suck this much. Not to mention that the lineup has a bunch of older declining players.
Yes, I've noticed this, too.
We just got done with a month where the team barely cleared the .500 mark despite playing mostly at home and, other than Texas, almost entirely against teams either out of contention or falling out of contention.
Eventually the Renteria/Lugo mistakes and the trade-Hanley short term decisions catch up. Even with all their money, it may be 2012 before they're competitive again, though probably no longer than that. Even to achieve that, they need to be much more open in their tolerance of high caliber but high maintenance players like Pedro and the two Ramirez's
There are obviously concerns but what strikes me is this is a team that has lost several either/or type games in the last several weeks. They've lost three extra inning games, and overall are 4-10 in 1&2;run games since July 3rd. If they were getting routed regularly I'd be more concerned but that isn't the case.
Oh, and Karl, you're right about 2000. Theo Epstein did an embarrassingly poor job of surrounding those two superstars with talent that year.
Looks like they are starting to drift in. By tonight, a parade of prominent, pants-pissing posters may pour in.
Since July 1 they're 1-8 against teams with winning records. (And since Brawl Day last year, 9-19 against Tampa Bay).
I dunno, this team knowingly went into the year needing to depend on a bunch of old players or injury risks. A 35 year old 3rd baseman, a 37 year old catcher, a 43 year old knuckleballer, a 42 year old pitcher coming off shoulder surgery, and a 33 year old fat DH with wrist and knee issues. It's hardly a shock that the team is playing like dogshiit in the second half of the season: they are worn down and injured.
Rotation depth was supposed to be a strength but that's turned out to be a mirage. The depth that's been called upon to fill in with Wakefield and Dice K injured has been awful (Smoltz: 7+ ERA while starting mostly against bad teams, Buchholz: 6+ ERA and a WHIP over 2). Penny has pitched like a 5th starter but at this point he's their #3. It's difficult to feel confident that the Sox can put together a good playoff run given the current state of the club.
Things look grim at this moment in time. They go into the NY series having to start Smoltz and Buchholz in two of the games. (Fun fact: Smoltz has allowed a .397 average to LHB this year. The Yankees have a bunch of LHB. And a short RF porch. Fans in the RF upper deck are advised to wear helmets tonight.) Bay is going to miss tonight and tomorrow with a hamstring issue. The Yankees are beating the hell out of everyone of late (including Halladay, who shut down the Sox when they visited just after the ASB). They may be 3 up in the WC, but it's tough to feel too good about their playoff chances over the course of the season given the way they've been playing and the current state of the team.
I'll probably be happy if they simply manage to avoid being swept in NY this weekend. The Sox badly need one of their struggling starters to put together a very good start. Not sure if/when that will happen.
Ugh.
Yeah, the team with the most pitching depth in the league really should have gone into the season with more eight starters who projected to be average or better. I bet if they had two more good starters, they'd be first in the AL in ERA+, instead of first like they are now.
And really, karl, given your affinity for all things that spend "more days in first place", do you really want to discuss the roster construction of the 2000 Red Sox?
I'm with Voxter - your schtick is old. How about a treatise on the hitting aptitude of Jake Beckley next time instead?
That depth consisted of a lot of question marks, though. Penny, Smoltz, 60 year old Wake, Buchholz. They got #### luck with Dice K crapping out, but it's not like they were stacked with great bets.
I disagree.
They didnt go into the year depending on those guys. Those guys collectively have been so-so, but the team has a good record. They went into the season needing to depend on Pedroia, Youkilis, Ellsbury, Bay, Drew, Beckett, Lester, Pap/Okie. This is the core and who they counted on, and it doesnt seem like a bad plan given the good results, although they are playing like stale ass right now. They can't win a close game in that shitty dome to save their lives.
And doesn't getting Martinez solve a big chunk of the problem of Lowell/Tek/Ortiz ?
edit: I'm no blind optimist, and am as frustrated as the rest of you. It sucks that this big series happens now when the team is scuffling. 2-2 at the new stadium will be a success if they can do it.
Funny, I think the Yankeee fans would agree with this. They should just make a deal!
That depth also consisted of Justin Masterson (who they turned into Victor Martinez) and Michael Bowden (who pitched a couple of big innings against the Yankees this year, IIRC, even if he has disappointed somewhat).
But the bigger point is: it's PITCHING! No one has enough!
Here's an exhaustive list of the teams who, entering this season, had seven or eight starting pitchers who could have been expected to be near-average or better and carried only minimal injury/age risk:
Now I'll do a list for all teams since 2000:
The 2000 team got very unlucky with injuries too
They really could have stolen that division with even a mildly decent run in September.
Only if Tito has the conviction to play VMart every day, and at the catcher's position quite a bit as Tek's play has dropped off considerably.
Lowell and Papi should be platooning at DH at this point. Lowell's range in the field has gotten so bad they could probably play Ortiz there with similar results. It's utterly painful to watch. And he's under contract for another year.
although they are playing like stale ass right now.
It's more than right now. They've been playing like crap all of July (13-12 against mostly unimpressive competition) and particularly since the ASB (8-10). At some point this moves beyond "just a bump in the road" and more towards "holy shiit this team isn't very good, is it?" scenario. I'm not sure when that point arrives, but if they don't show something this weekend that point could well arrive next Monday.
It's more than right now. They've been playing like crap all of July (13-12 against mostly unimpressive competition) and particularly since the ASB (8-10). At some point this moves beyond "just a bump in the road" and more towards "holy shiit this team isn't very good, is it?" scenario.
I remember pretty similar sentiments in 2007. Remember when the Yankees went from 14.5 games out to 1.5 games out?
Make the playoffs, go from there. Nothing else matters.
And after the shrewd acquisitions of Dante Bichette and Mike Lansing for the stretch drive, it looked like a sure thing.
karl, what would your opinion of the 2 teams be if Duquette was GM of this one and Epstein was GM of the 2000 one?
We're supposed to be impressed with it? 7 games came against a bad Oakland team, 5 against a horrible BAL team, 4 against KC. They went 2-7 against the .500+ teams in July (SEA, TOR, TEX).
Thank God for the Orioles (11-2 vs. BAL this year).
This has been a tough stretch but the Red Sox are good. I'd say they're one of the 5 or 6 best teams in baseball and positioned to make a run at the post-season.
There will be more brutal defeats, more losses where it seems inconceivable that this team is going anywhere. But the wins will come too. It's a great time of year.
Honest question (non-snarky division): Does this "good" label still apply when they're running Penny, Smoltz, and Buchholz out there at the end of the rotation to take their usual beatings?
As for "the wins will come too": I'd love to see that happen. Preferably against some .500 or better teams. Lately they haven't been playing well against good clubs.
Ramon Martinez hadn't been healthy in years and was coming off a major rotator cuff injury. Saberhagen was 36, had missed basically all of 1996-97 with injuries, and had to be coddled through 119 innings in 1999. Tom Gordon (!?) threw 17 innings in 1999 with a 5.6 ERA, and was oft-injured throughout his career - not sure what you were going for by mentioning him.
That team did have a good pitching staff - but a TERRIBLE offense. Let's look at what they got from some positions offensively:
1B: .250/.351/.419
2B: .248/.318/.327
3B: .251/.291/.354
LF: .252/.311/.392
RF: .271/.358/.417
DH: .242/.318/.440
...in a .281/.355/.452 environment, no less. Lazy, karl.
Thank God for the Orioles (11-2 vs. BAL this year).
And the Yankees.
4 runs, but yeah.
no, but there is middle ground between playing like crap and impressive play.
maybe frustrating water-treading?
playing okay?
mediocre stretch?
Point taken, but 5 of those games took place when ARod was out.
New York is 21-10 since July 1. Suffice it to say this ain't the same team the Sox kicked the hell out of back in April and May.
You do realize there's ample precedent for a .500ish 40, 50, 60 game stretch for playoff, LCS and WS-winning teams, right?
I thought Penny looked good last night. He made a few mistakes that were just brutalized. I would say the same of Smoltz of late. His mistakes are getting crushed. Buchholz has been bad but there's reason to believe he will improve. And Wake will help.
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