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1. dave h Posted: December 08, 2006 at 03:35 AM (#2255011)Why are you assuming that the luxury tax threshold is their spending limit?
Because it usually is. Maybe that will change this year, who knows?
Marky Mark the Funky Bunch would have stuck if you the idiots didn't run him out of town.
[/Carl Everett]
Who? Who is the guy who you feel confident handing the closer job to? And with that guy in place, who becomes the setup man?
No closer? They were in the hunt for Dotel and look like the frontrunners for Gagne. There's nobody else out there.
The setup crew is fine. Timlin/Delcarmen/Hansen/Tavarez/Okajima is probably about average. Yeah it'd be nice to have two lights out closers in the pen but whatever.
I think this is likely. I suspect that they'll try the closer-by-committee scheme again; they just won't advertise it as such. Among MDC, Hansen, Gabbard, Clement, even Timlin, there must be someone who can do a passable job. I just don't see the Red Sox paying someone like Gagne anything like what they paid Foulke to be a closer.
Timlin has lost it. I like Delcarmen, he did well, but was overused at the end. Hansen still has control issues. Tavarez was great starting (i have no idea how). Okajima should be a good 7th inning lefty.
Speaking of lefty, what happened to the slightly less useless Javy Lopez?
wrong.
Maybe you're just a heretic who doesn't believe in Jesus
I like this setup corps alright. Timlin/Delcarmen/Okajima seem fine as the 2-4 arms. I don't know what offseason moves could have done much for the setup men.
That leaves closer. The Sox need a closer. I don't really know what they're going to do about getting a closer. I agree with Darren that this is a significant question, and that there's good reason to think that the Red Sox have pretty much topped out their payroll, pending the Matsuzaka signing. I don't really know what the answer is.
So, to me, the question really just boils down to, who's the closer? What the plan for getting a closer? Did the Sox spend money on Drew that now can't be spent on Gagne or someone, and does that hurt the team?
I'm not whining. I'm nnoootttt!
No, really, I'm just saying I don't follow what they're doing. If it turns out that they've decided to go considerably over the lux tax limit, then it's not a problem. If they have a good trade in the works for a good reliever, then it's also no problem. I just don't see what the good solution is right now.
"Slowest Skinny White Guy EVER" didnt' stick.
Who's the "2" in that group? And why is a guy who was homerific in Japan a good bet here? I hope you're right on both counts, but I have my doubts. And, of course, Francona will work the #### out of all of them and use Okajima as a loogy regardless of how he pitches.
I think I've already said what they could have done: they could have gotten Speier. Or they could have traded for Horacio Ramirez and then traded him for Soriano! Or some other smart deal.
I suppose Delcarmen could blossom or Timlin might return to form, but from where I stand, I'd feel much better with 2 more GOOD relievers.
Would you do that and then move Beckett to closer? He's got two pitches working at least.
The Run Fairy$trade;
...
...
...
everything since
I'll be OK with one more. One more good reliever, and then if Lester can return, moving Papsmear (man that nickname REALLY didn't stick) back into the bullpen, our pen will be awesome.
I saw Temple posted that over on SOSH. Everyone and their brother was saying how much money would be spent this offseason. It was obvious to Boras and I'm sure he remembered how much the Sox wanted Drew the last time he was a FA. The simple fact of the matter is that he didn't have to tamper, so why would he?
Cuz the Red Sox are badass like dat y'all. We're BALLING!!!!!
I agree the Sox need better arms in the pen. I have hope for Hansen and Delcarmen, but we don't have a single sure thing in the pen.
Missing out on Speier is one disappointment from the offseason. But if I had to choose between Speier and Drew, I'd take Drew. Probably Lugo, too.
I agree the roster isn't set, but I think the FO used their considerable financial resources to add as much talent as possible in the FA market, and I'm glad about that. Now they can attack the problem of the bullpen, for which there was no obvious FA solution, with the possible exception of Speier.
I agree; witht the exception of the Cub fans calling their bench F Troop back in '03 and '04. That was funny, too.
Or do you prefer paying big bucks for "proven veterans"?
I prefer paying big bucks for "proven veterans."
It's because with Papelbon in the rotation, we don't have a "relief ace", so we have to go back to a decent pitcher that can only pitch 3 outs in the 9th.
Papelbon had a much better track record than Hansen. As a starter though.
Yes.
never mind, i guess human sacrifice is cruel.
{{any bbtf discussion that mentions Mark Smellhorn draws me in}}
No, but he was more impressive as a reliever in 2005 than either Hansen or Delcarmen was last year, IMO.
Man, he could land on a car, and seirously damage the car!
Yes.
Or Detroit's, for that matter?
Yes.
Man, he could land on a car, and seirously damage the car!
No.
Also, in the bullpen, which young pitchers would be shunted aside if the Red Sox signed a veteran? At the moment, the only relatively sure things on the roster are Timlin, Delcarmen, Okajima, Tavarez, and Timlin. That leaves at least one open spot, probably two - no young guys are being displaced. I don't see it as an either/or, it can be both/and, if the money is available.
Funny. I was actually advocating for the Sox to sign him to a 1 year/1.5 million dollar contract for 2008 earlier tonight.
Really? Timlin may very well be cooked. Delcarmen looks ok with some rough control from time to time. Okajima is pretty close to a blank slate.
Fine because the rotation and lineup will be very good, I'll buy. Fine in and of themselves, not so much.
Did Florida's accomplishments this past season just fly completely under your radar or something?
Or Detroit's, for that matter?
The Fish didn't accomplish anything. Los Tigres OTOH...
...had Magglio and Pudge; among others.
Why? Just because he was a good pitcher for 4 out of the past 5 years? You should really let your emotions rule your judgement a bit more.
BLASPHEMY !!
HERETIC !!
Two spots in the pen will probably be set aside for youngsters. If they blossom, they'll be the key guys. There's going to be plenty of opportunity, just like there was plenty of opportunity for Pap to blossom last year and everyone else to fall on their faces.
*sigh*
"BBTF's HTML Therapy Discussion:: I don't get it"
Damn, we should have traded him to Seattle for Soriano!
that's especially funny b/c i know what you look like.
both guys need their breaking balls to be effective. i haven't seen enough of hansen's slider. does it even exist? delcarmen is a very good reliever WHEN he can spot the curveball.
BTF nicknames:
The Run Fairy$trade;
...
...
...
everything since"
I liked "Dorf" for Loretta.
Cappy Jarhead? The Pantload? Freddy Kruger?
On the MFY side of things...The Chinless Wonder? Chokey McFivetools (tfbg9's personal fav)?
And I hope the Papalbon to the rotation thing works out, but I'm afraid this is a case of trying to get a little too cute-the guy was just clearly incredible out of the pen, so he gets hurt-I mean guys do get hurt-an they say they know exactly why he got hurt, and they scrap that role for him? Color me really skeptical on the Papelbon move.
...had Magglio and Pudge; among others.
Well, yeah: no one wins a pennant running out nine rookies. Young players who made valuable contributions to the 2006 Tigers include, however: Verlander, Bonderman, Zumaya, Granderson, Shelton, Miner, Rodney, Ledezma, Infante
Just a little bit older, and still very cheap: Inge, Monroe, Thames, Robertson.
Filling that many roster spots with quality cheap guys does give you a lot of room in building a team, which I believe was kevin's point. Now why the hell is Sean Casey playing 1B again?
True, true. That was the Ten Penny Ale speaking on my behalf last nite.
Not to denigrate what the Marlins did, but a large part of this was the result of playing in a division (and, one might argue, a league) that had exactly one quality team.
-- MWE
(1) Identify the best OFer, best SS, and best starting pitcher.
(2) Pay $$ for the best OFer, best SS, and best starting pitcher.
(3) Conquer the world.
I think 2.5, in their ideal world, appears to be "identify the best relief ace/pay $$ for best relief ace." I'd guess that Okaji will be the 3rd or so best non-closer reliever who switched teams this offseason, so I suppose that can be added in their. (Though, he was a el cheapo buy.)
The interesting thing is that I recall reading or listening to an interview of Theo a few weeks ago, before the FA season. Theo was asked what he planned to do. He came pretty close to saying that he wanted to identify the cheaper, harder to find talent, a la 2003. Clearly, that was BS. The minor-league FAs have been pretty scant, and the roster is full enough that there isn't much room for experimentation. Now, in terms of identifying more WINS, this is probably the better way to do things. It certainly is expensive, though.
That all said, Schil's $13mm comes off the books next year, Timlin probably won't be back again, Taverez goes away, Hinske is gone, and Lowell is unlikely to be resigned (please). That is about $31mm to take a bath in. Plus, by 2008, Hansen, Cox, and Ellsbury will likely be moderately useful players, at the least. But, there is really no need to require them to be more - well, I suppose that is certainly true for Ellsbury, though I guess Cox/Hansen will need to step into the Timlin/Taverez spots. But, if Ellsbury can be a useful player in 2008, then Cris/Pena move to LF, and share time with the deer-chaser in CF. And we have another Manny saga.
The team is set to have contracts come off the books continuously, and if we assume a 5-10% increase in salaries (the Tax level increase by about that much), then there could be another $40mm or so the spend in 2008 - even if Manny, Crisp/Pena, etc, aren't moved. And an similar number for 2009. (Though, probably a bit less, depending on what happens next year.)
All said, it looks like a plan to me. Just an expensive one. Billy Beane, eat your heart out.
You know, I don't agree with JC much, but he's dead on about this one. Remember when Prospectus was saying that the Yankees would soon be in a down cycle a la the mid 80s? I could see the Yankees having a down year (85 wins) in the next few, where they get hit by injuries and guys have off years, but it would be a blip, and I certainly wouldn't bet on it happening.
Mark Bellhorn. There's a guy who could really help out the team who we should acquire!
Obviously, the larger factor is all the superstars they're paying 13-17 million dollars to. But even the Yankees have had to identify key young talent to stay on top.
This obviously isn't an either/or. You do both. When it comes to this year's bullpen, it's not immediately clear that the veteran FA solutions are any better than what the Sox already have. But, as I think MCoA pointed out above, there's still room for one or two more arms in the pen without blocking anybody. So if there's no appealing trade, and if they can afford it (and neither of those things is a given, of course), signing one or two more arms probably makes sense.
The signings of Lugo, Drew, and/or Matsuzaka will keep the club in a holding pattern, being neither significantly
better or significantly worse than the guys they're replacing (tho that is likely untrue in the latter case-M. likely
will be quite a bit better than Clement was). If this team is to clearly become the best team in the league it
will have to see significant development by their young players (in which I include Beckett and Crisp BTW).
I agree that Beckett and Crisp and probably Hansen need to improve to really take this team back to the top, though.
"Red Sox manager Terry Francona has indicated that he’ll probably go with Julio Lugo and Kevin Youkilis at the top of the order next season."
As mentioned in another thread, this is what I expected-- not exactly what I wanted (Drew up top, Lugo near the end), but also not what I feared (Crisp up top).
Another interesting lineup tidbit, from Eric Van (I guess "BJ" is Bill James?):
"2006 Baserunning numbers from BJ (not adjusted for PT):
Lugo +9
Youkils +11
Ortiz 0
Ramirez -11
Drew +8
Lowell -14
Varitek 0
Crisp +11
Pedroia N/A
Pena +3"
I don't know anything about how these numbers are calculated, but apart from Youkilis, they pretty much reflect my own impressions (I didn't think Youkilis was bad, but I'm surprised his number is higher than Drew's and equal to Coco's). Does Varitek make up for his slowness with baserunning intelligence, or is he simply not as slow as Mike "Molasses" Lowell?
I don't imagine Pedroia's numbers will be good, but, then, neither were Loretta's, I'm guessing.
"Slowest Skinny White Guy EVER" didnt' stick.
John Olerud is slower, skinnier, and whiter.
Timlin may very well be cooked.
I'm sure he would have been fine if not for his participation in the WBC. He ran out of gas early.
At the moment, the only relatively sure things on the roster are Timlin, Delcarmen, Okajima, Tavarez, and Hansen.
They Rule 5'ed Nick Debarr from Tampa, too. Don't know if he'll stick, but for now I think they just need to get a closer and move on.
There’s no closer. There’s no reliable setup man. There’s no backup catcher (unless you think Kotteras is ready).
It's DECEMBER. Unless they're going for elite free agents, they have plenty of time to fill remaining spots.
Why does clement's name come up in every potential roster thread? His shoulder was shredded. The doctors went in to fix one thing and found another injury in addition.
pos player '06-Sal
C: Varitek 9.0
1B: Youkilis minimum+
2B: Pedroia minimum
SS: Lugo 9.0?
3B: Lowell 9.0
LF: Ramirez 18.0
CF: Crisp 3.5
RF: Drew 14.0?
DH: Ortiz 12.5
C: Kotteras? minimum
UT: Cora 2.0
UT: Hinske 2.8
OF: Pena 2-3?
UT?:
SP:
SP: Schilling 13.0
SP: Papelbon minimum+
SP: Beckett 6.0
SP: Wakefield 4.0
RP:
RP: Timlin 2.8
RP: Tavarez 3.1
RP: Okajima 1.25
RP: Delcarmen minimum+
RP:
RP?:
DL: Clement 9.5
DL: Lester minimum
The current payroll, unless I've missed something, is around $124 million, give or take a million or two. (Matsuzaka still isn't signed. The bullpen needs rounding out).
What I'd be trying to do right now is trade Lowell for someone who can platoon at first base with Hinske and/or a decent relief pitcher. The pen doesn't look bad, as of right now, but it definitely looks mediocre (the only pitcher in there who my WFG projection system thinks will be "good" is Delcarmen) and the Sox could use another "good" pitcher, regardless of whether or not the Sox sign a free agent to go in the pen.
The real problem is the current lack of depth among the pitchers. With Clement and Lester out (and it's nice that Lester's feeling better, but until he actually starts throwing, he's just another Andy Yount/Juan Pena), the 6th and 7th starters are people like Hansack and Snyder and DiNardo. Much as I have liked DiNardo, I don't think the Sox can count on an 80 ERA+ from any of the three of them, at least at this point.
What's the latest on Tomo Ohka? Isn't he a free agent? Given what some mediocre pitchers have been getting, Ohka ought to make a killing on this market (if he's relatively healthy and a free agent).
It's not a great collection of set-up men, but it's not at all bad compared to what they've had in previous years. Just need one more arm, and I think it'll be a competent group.
However, upon thinking about this, we should call Hinkse's salary $150k because his AAV would be $2.95mm, but Tor pays $2.8mm. Thus, while his actual expense is $2.8mm, his AAV is (for payroll tax purposes) only $150k. See CBA Art. XXIII, and esp (C)(2)(b).
"Deferred Compensation shall be included in a Player’s Salary as if paid in the championship season to which it is attributed under a Uniform Player’s Contract. If a Contract does not attribute Deferred Compensation, the Contract shall be treated as if the Deferred Compensation was attributed equally to each of the Guaranteed Years in the Contract."
Drew is almost exactly what the Sox had in Nixon: a left-handed RF with good D, medium range power, good average and is injury-prone. Drew has the advantage of
being 1 1/2 years younger. Nixon is #1 on Drew's most similar list, and Drew is #8 on Nixon's list. Drew has shown he is a somewhat better hitter than Nixon
yes but not significantly better-maybe an extra WARP or 2 assuming both are healthy. Nixon hasn't aged well but Drew could fall off that cliff too.
Lugo is also a better hitter but I dunno if Gonzalez's D helps make up for that or not; either it's close to a push or Lugo has a reasonable but not huge edge.
Even if they are both much better looking back, aging might reduce or eliminate that edge going forward. Point is neither of these guys is going to make a huge
Last point is a straw man: looks that way but no guarantees as the translations from Japan to MLB and back aren't as clear as a prior MLB track record.
most of the improvement must come from the young guys.
We have do also factor in Lugo's superior durability. He is a much better bet than A~Gon to give 155 games a year.
also I would assume his baserunning is better
2006 Drew +23
2005 Drew +8
2004 Drew +66
2003 Nixon +25
Me neither :-( But, I'm good at nit picking! (Sorry, btw.)
2007 proj: Drew + Lugo = (at least) 3 Wins + Nixon + AGon.
If one is of the opinion that Epstein needs to do something about the bullpen, I think one needs to give a general idea of what and who would be involved in this 'something'. It would help if that 'something' was a plan appropriately designed to be sensitive to the very real facts of reliever volatility and the benefits of building cheap, young bullpens.
Timlin, Tavarez, Okajima, Delcarmen
...with pitchers like...
Breslow, Hansack, DiNardo, Lopez? (is he still here?), Hansen, and Snyder
fighting for the last 2-3 slots. (I may well be forgetting a few pitchers). If the Sox can't, say, trade Lowell for another Tavarez/Seanez type (a veteran who has pitched well recently and whose only indication that he's going to pitch poorly this year will inevitably be that he's wearing the Red Sox ballcap), then, the Sox should instead look to improve the offense/payroll efficiency: trade for a Hinske platoon partner and punt the bullpen, hoping that pitchers like DiNardo and Hansen and Delcarmen pitch like they did in the minors while figuring that if nothing else, they'll cost nothing else.
http://blogs.chron.com/lopezblog/archives/2006/12/red_sox_to_be_c.html
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