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— Where Thinking Red Sox Fans Obsess about the Sox

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   101. Spaceman Posted: August 06, 2010 at 01:56 PM (#3609650)
I pee fine for a 48 year old man. I have found that drinking plenty of water and eating right leads to a very healthy stream.
   102. Avoid running at all times.-S. Paige Posted: August 06, 2010 at 03:37 PM (#3609768)
You're 48! Holy ####! I admire your optimism in the face of it all. Forever young you will remain!
   103. Toby Posted: August 06, 2010 at 05:46 PM (#3609894)
Here's why I'm not giving up, in a nutshell:

First, the math isn't quite as bad as it seems, because the Yankees and Rays play each other. A lot. Right now, we are 5.5 games behind Tampa Bay and 6 games behind the Yankees. The Yankees and Rays play each other 7 more times. In the *worst case* scenario for us right now, Tampa loses 3 and New York loses 4, putting us effectively 4 games behind both. Four games is not hard to make up in seven weeks. And in the best case scenario, Tampa loses all 7, and we're effectively only 2 games behind them (while the Yankees pull well out of reach).

Second, we still control our own destiny. We have 6 games left against Tampa Bay and 10 left against the Yankees. If we can simply win more than we lose against each team -- go 4-2 against the Rays and 6-4 against the Yankees -- we'll gain 2 games on each of them. And we have 37 games against other teams to make up the other 2 games.

To be sure, the odds of doing that aren't in our favor. But it can be done. Even without Youk, the team we will be putting on the field for the last six weeks of the season is almost certainly going to be better than any team we've put on the field for any other six-week stretch this year. The expanded September roster should help us cover our holes, especially the bullpen. The starting pitching seems to be rounding into form. Beckett can do what Bruce Hurst used to do -- come back strong and rested after missing a few months in the middle of the season. (I'm a little concerned that Buchholz might wear down as the innings pile up.)

Again, the odds aren't good. But the elements are there for this team to catch lightning in a bottle and make a really strong late run. Will they? Probably not. But if they can, it would be awesome to see. One thing I'm not used to seeing as a Sox fan is the team come from behind late in the season. I've seen plenty of pennant races where the Sox squander or nearly squander an August lead, but very few where they seize the day. This could be the team that does it. Odds low, but payoff very, very high.
   104. villageidiom Posted: August 09, 2010 at 11:50 PM (#3612368)
Update on my post #37:

- - - - -

vs CLE: 2-0 1-1
at NYY: 2-2
at TOR: 2-1
at TEX: 1-2
vs LAA: 2-1
vs TOR: 2-1
vs SEA: 3-0
at TBR: 1-2
at BAL: 2-1
prior to Labor Day weekend: 17-10 16-11

vs CHW: 2-1
vs TBR: 2-1
at OAK: 2-1
at SEA: 2-1
vs TOR: 3-0
vs BAL: 3-0
at NYY: 1-2
at CHW: 2-2
vs NYY: 2-1
September stretch run: 19-9

From today forward: 36-19 35-20
Final record: 97-65 96-66

- - - - - -

I don't think I can recall any time the Red Sox have gone to Yankee Stadium and I've been so pleased that they split a series. That aside, they're one game off the pace outlined last week, and with Tampa doing a minor implosion along the way Boston is only 4 games out of the wild card (pending Tampa/Detroit tonight). On the negative side, the Twins have caught up to Boston, and entered the day tied for 2nd for the wild card. And Toronto will be difficult to take 2 of 3 from, given how they've played recently.
   105. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: August 12, 2010 at 10:49 AM (#3614435)
This is F!@#ing hopeless
   106. tjm1 Posted: August 12, 2010 at 11:41 AM (#3614447)
I got spoiled with a team that had Pedro, Manny, Nomar, Damon and Wake, all players I would go a very long way to watch and with an anti-machine approach that I liked. Gradually, time and Theo have removed those players and replaced them with much less interesting ones, and replaced the "idiots" nonconformist meme with a groupthink I don't care for, with even the mild Ellsbury regarded as an outsider.


In what "groupthink" is Adrian Beltre participating? He's up there with Manny and Oil Can in wackiness.
   107. John DiFool2 Posted: August 12, 2010 at 01:10 PM (#3614471)
All this "The 2004 team was chock full of characters and the 2010 team is a bunch of faceless company men" seems like pure grade A post hoc ergo proper hoc ########. Like tjm1 said, Beltre isn't wacky and/or full of personality? Papelbon? Pedroia? Youks? (with his definitely non-company man beard, tho he shaved some of it off awhile back.) All of these guys would fit in perfectly fine with the 2004 "idiots" (Youks actually has a ring from that season too)
   108. Fly should without a doubt be number !!!!! Posted: August 12, 2010 at 01:31 PM (#3614491)
To Joe C, Vaughn Eshelman has been sponsored. Let me know if you don't like the message.
   109. The Essex Snead Posted: August 12, 2010 at 01:36 PM (#3614500)
I'm a little concerned that Buchholz might wear down as the innings pile up.

That brief DL stint he had a month ago might help mitigate the overall wear-and-tear, though. & he certainly didn't look too shabby last night.
   110. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: August 12, 2010 at 01:40 PM (#3614505)
All this "The 2004 team was chock full of characters and the 2010 team is a bunch of faceless company men" seems like pure grade A post hoc ergo proper hoc ########. Like tjm1 said, Beltre isn't wacky and/or full of personality? Papelbon? Pedroia? Youks? (with his definitely non-company man beard, tho he shaved some of it off awhile back.) All of these guys would fit in perfectly fine with the 2004 "idiots" (Youks actually has a ring from that season too)


I think a lot of this comes down to snobbery. It's like when you are in high school and you "discover" a band. You tell everyone how great they are and no one pays attention then they hit it big and all of a sudden everyone loves them. I think there are definitely folks out there that get irritated that the Sox have become so popular now and they have to share their precious baseball experience with lesser fans.
   111. Famous Original Joe C Posted: August 12, 2010 at 01:48 PM (#3614516)
To Joe C, Vaughn Eshelman has been sponsored. Let me know if you don't like the message.

Not posted yet, Fly, but thanks for paying up - though everyone wins when the bet is a B-R page, right?
   112. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: August 12, 2010 at 02:05 PM (#3614538)
Nomar had an "anti-machine" approach? He was one of the most OCD player I've ever watched play. I loved him pre-2004, but he had to go. Refusing 4/60 million has to be one of the biggest stupid and arrogant mistakes a player has ever made.


Is this story still going around? Was there ever any evidence for it?
   113. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: August 12, 2010 at 02:05 PM (#3614539)
I stand by what I said in #54. 2010's team is more fun than the couple that preceded, but not particularly close to as fun as 2004.
   114. Fly should without a doubt be number !!!!! Posted: August 12, 2010 at 03:21 PM (#3614625)
Not posted yet, Fly, but thanks for paying up - though everyone wins when the bet is a B-R page, right?

Hey, I always pay my bets. Just a little slowly, sometimes, because frankly, I'm lazy.

And yes, everyone wins. Thanks, Sean.
   115. Fly should without a doubt be number !!!!! Posted: August 12, 2010 at 07:31 PM (#3614901)
He's SO AWESOME!!!!
   116. Dan Posted: August 12, 2010 at 07:34 PM (#3614908)
Another complete kick in the balls from Papelbon. Awesome.

The Jays are just too good at hitting fastballs for him. Overall he's really turned it around enough that he isn't a complete waste, but there was no reason to pull lackey there. And if you did pull Lackey, Bard should've been used since he was fresher, regardless of titular roles.
   117. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: August 12, 2010 at 07:49 PM (#3614924)
Ouchie.
   118. villageidiom Posted: August 12, 2010 at 07:56 PM (#3614939)
Another update on #37:

- - - - -

vs CLE: 2-0 1-1
at NYY: 2-2
at TOR: 2-1
at TEX: 1-2
vs LAA: 2-1
vs TOR: 2-1
vs SEA: 3-0
at TBR: 1-2
at BAL: 2-1
prior to Labor Day weekend: 17-10 16-11

vs CHW: 2-1
vs TBR: 2-1
at OAK: 2-1
at SEA: 2-1
vs TOR: 3-0
vs BAL: 3-0
at NYY: 1-2
at CHW: 2-2
vs NYY: 2-1
September stretch run: 19-9

From today forward: 36-19 35-20
Final record: 97-65 96-66

- - - - -

Despite the implosion - or because of it? - they're still only one game off the pace I set forth a while ago. Texas is hot, whether I'm talking about the state or the Rangers, so 1 of 3 still seems a reasonable expectation. Buchholz wouldn't get a turn in that series, unfortunately.

If we're talking wild card they still have 6 head-to-head games with Tampa, 6 with NY (if Tampa moves past them), and 7 with Chicago (if the Twins run ahead with the Central).
   119. Darren Posted: August 12, 2010 at 09:11 PM (#3615042)
In case anyone cares, I've given up on catching NY (a while ago) but we're in decent shape for the WC. Today sucked but I didn't watch it so it was not that painful. It's very easy to blame the manager in such cases, but really, not having watched it, it seemed like a reasonable way to go. Lackey's got a good game going a low pitch count, he gives up a HR and you go to the closer. He blows it, as closers sometimes do. Really crappy way to lose, but it happens.

The continued insanity by the Yankees and Rays is what's so frustrating.
   120. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: August 12, 2010 at 09:18 PM (#3615049)
119 is NOT the reaction I was expecting from Darren. I agree 100% with it though.
   121. Darren Posted: August 13, 2010 at 02:47 AM (#3615263)
I try to be reasonable once in a while just to keep things fresh.
   122. Hugh Jorgan Posted: August 13, 2010 at 04:00 AM (#3615288)
I try to be reasonable once in a while just to keep things fresh.

then no need for the usual pants-pissing snarks...

We are all probably resigned to the fact that the team just had a brutal run with injuries and if they somehow manage to pull out a playoff spot, then that's a bonus. We are on course for 92 wins, which isn't getting it done. If VD's projection holds and the Sox get 96 wins, I reckon that'll do it. I however think we will end up on 94 wins and miss out by 2 games...and yes I am usually quite optimistic, but this just doesn't seem to be our year(no statistically based argument there!)
   123. TVerik, the gum-snappin' hairdresser Posted: August 13, 2010 at 04:04 AM (#3615294)
The continued insanity by the Yankees and Rays is what's so frustrating.


In the last ten games, the Yankees are 5-5 and the Rays 4-6. Treading water will probably take the Yankees to the promised land, and maybe the Rays as well. But by no means would I call the last fortnight of play by both teams "insane".
   124. Smiling Joe Hesketh Posted: August 13, 2010 at 01:00 PM (#3615385)
Sox aren't making the playoffs if Papelbon (29/35, league leader in blown saves) keeps pulling this ####. He's giving away games they must have to even have a shot at the postseason.

I am angry.
   125. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: August 13, 2010 at 01:26 PM (#3615400)
Looking at the schedule the next three days could be very important. If the Sox can find a way to win the series they will probably still be 5 back in the AILC with a fairly favorable schedule leading up to the series in Tampa. Conversely, if things go poorly the Sox could easily be 7 out. At this stage of the season that is a pretty substantial difference.
   126. villageidiom Posted: August 13, 2010 at 03:19 PM (#3615532)
If VD's projection holds
I really don't like that typo.
   127. Darren Posted: August 13, 2010 at 05:56 PM (#3615725)
I thought we only called him that behind his back.
   128. John DiFool2 Posted: August 13, 2010 at 06:37 PM (#3615774)
Sox aren't making the playoffs if Papelbon (29/35, league leader in blown saves) keeps pulling this ####. He's giving away games they must have to even have a shot at the postseason.

I am angry.


I think we can not only call the '06-'07 Papelbon dead, but also the '08-'09 version. Every single peripheral is down across the board, and while his control had improved from c. early June to late July, in his last 11 innings (rounded), he's walked 7 (K'ing 13). Oh sure, compared to other teams and some of the closer problems they have had, he's pretty good, but in this division the Sox really can't afford any more of yesterday's ########. [preempted the nanny there BTW] Feel free to spin his performance any way you want, but the fact is he's been a definite disappointment considering how the Injury Bug has made the margin for error for the healthy players (hell, he himself may be hiding an injury) very very small.
   129. Spaceman Posted: August 13, 2010 at 11:07 PM (#3616004)
Oh sure, compared to other teams and some of the closer problems they have had, he's pretty good

Thanks. End of discussion!

How about a little respect boyz. On another BTF thread, some are insisting that Mo is the best pitcher of all time; not just the best closer, teh best ####### pitcher!! (crazy people, I believe), and, sheit, he blows games too. Paps has done us well, we shouldn't complain. Cringe if you must (god knows I do), but since the Sox are not going to find anyone better for a long, long time, we might as well accept his overall dominance diluted by flashes of failure.

Fun facts:
Jon Lester has lost 6 games in which 4 or + runs were scored against him, David Ortiz took 6 weeks off, Ellsbury has just 6 net steals, and six injuries, to Ellsbury, Cameron, Beckett, Pedroia, Martinez, and Beckett are the difference, to date, between us and them.
   130. nick swisher hygiene Posted: August 13, 2010 at 11:34 PM (#3616023)
Spaceman: why do you hate David Cameron?
   131. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: August 14, 2010 at 12:03 AM (#3616041)
since the Sox are not going to find anyone better for a long, long time

Bard is already better.
   132. Darren Posted: August 14, 2010 at 03:13 AM (#3616198)
Closers have such "short" years that they can have really bad off years right in the middle of good stretches. I don't think Paps is done as a very good closer, though I don't think 07 is walking through that door.
   133. Darren Posted: August 14, 2010 at 03:27 AM (#3616212)
Bard is already better.

Are you sure?
   134. Spivey Posted: August 14, 2010 at 04:17 AM (#3616260)
BOOTS WITH THE FURRRRRR
   135. TVerik, the gum-snappin' hairdresser Posted: August 14, 2010 at 04:25 AM (#3616268)
One pitch? Really?
   136. Famous Original Joe C Posted: August 14, 2010 at 04:27 AM (#3616269)
BOOTS WITH THE FURRRRRR

No need for that right now in this corner of the world, Rangers fan.
   137. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: August 14, 2010 at 04:30 AM (#3616272)
On another BTF thread, some are insisting that Mo is the best pitcher of all time; not just the best closer, teh best ####### pitcher!!

If you actually read that thread, it's pretty hard to find anyone actually arguing that. Lots of people arguing against it and lots of people are lavishing praise on Mo while plainly acknowledging that you can't compare a modern closer (no matter how dominant for how long) to a top-flight starter, but that's about it. Well, there's also Andy being Andy and lots of people being pissed at Andy for being Andy.
   138. Avoid running at all times.-S. Paige Posted: August 14, 2010 at 04:33 AM (#3616273)
is it safe to say this is Wakefield's last season?
   139. Dan Posted: August 14, 2010 at 04:40 AM (#3616274)
#### Josh Beckett, and #### Francona for leaving him in when he clearly had nothing. There was 0 reason for him to pitch the 5th inning after he gave up that bomb to Moreland.

This team just continually finds new ways to blow leads. And it seems like every time they streak out to an early lead, the offense just shuts down. There's never an easy victory. I really don't remember any crazy comeback victories either, just being the victim of countless opponent comebacks. It's really just not been a fun year at all.
   140. Petunia inquires about ponies Posted: August 14, 2010 at 04:47 AM (#3616276)
Re [106] and [113] - I stand by my theory in [48]. All these guys are characters. I really legitimately enjoy rooting for this team.
   141. Phil Coorey is a T-Shirt Salesman Posted: August 14, 2010 at 05:05 AM (#3616284)
This is just ridiculous how this team blows big leads - I really like this team at times but ####### hate them as well.

Nice Gopher ball by Wake - please #### off and retire already

I'm with Dan - this has not been a fun year at all - how ####### more worse off with bad luck, fielding, position and pitching in key areas can this team get??
   142. Dan Posted: August 14, 2010 at 05:18 AM (#3616286)
Oh and as a nice bonus from this game, Ellsbury re-injured his ribs and is flying back to Boston to get them examined tomorrow.
   143. Joe Bivens, Minor Genius Posted: August 14, 2010 at 10:48 AM (#3616319)
I would say that last year was Wake's last season. KM will find a taxidermist to have him stuffed and trotted out every five days in his fantasies.
   144. Spaceman Posted: August 14, 2010 at 01:33 PM (#3616350)
Closers have such "short" years that they can have really bad off years right in the middle of good stretches. I don't think Paps is done as a very good closer, though I don't think 07 is walking through that door.

Yeah, I agree. Paps can still bring it, and when he does he's pretty much unhittable. It really appears that his struggles are more mental than physical, so in that sense I can't shake this thought that when he leaves he's going to pull a Clemens by dominating for another team the next decade.

Some of us just don't realize how fortunate having both Paps and Bard in our bullpen is. This is the strongest 1-2 in baseball, imo.
   145. rLr Is King Of The Romans And Above Grammar Posted: August 14, 2010 at 01:40 PM (#3616352)
Some of us just don't realize how fortunate having both Paps and Bard in our bullpen is. This is the strongest 1-2 in baseball, imo.

I'd take Rivera and Abe Vigoda.
   146. Spaceman Posted: August 14, 2010 at 01:42 PM (#3616353)
Ha!
   147. Darren Posted: August 15, 2010 at 01:10 AM (#3616645)
Rivera is Abe Vigoda. I thought they were both dead years ago.
   148. villageidiom Posted: August 16, 2010 at 12:05 AM (#3617002)
vs CLE: 2-0 1-1
at NYY: 2-2
at TOR: 2-1
at TEX: 1-2
vs LAA: 2-1
vs TOR: 2-1
vs SEA: 3-0
at TBR: 1-2
at BAL: 2-1
prior to Labor Day weekend: 17-10 16-11

vs CHW: 2-1
vs TBR: 2-1
at OAK: 2-1
at SEA: 2-1
vs TOR: 3-0
vs BAL: 3-0
at NYY: 1-2
at CHW: 2-2
vs NYY: 2-1
September stretch run: 19-9

From today forward: 36-19 35-20
Final record: 97-65 96-66

- - - - -

Can they go 7-2 on this homestand? Can they go 2-1 at Baltimore? At this point which one would be more difficult?

Pedroia will be back Tuesday, but that might simply mean more time off for Scutaro.
   149. villageidiom Posted: August 19, 2010 at 01:31 PM (#3620162)
I posted this in game chatter a couple nights ago, but I suppose it's more appropriate here:

After Tuesday, Tampa has 19 games at home, and 24 on the road. But their road games include the AL West also-rans, and KC. They have a legitimate shot at 101-105 wins. The Yankees will probably end around 100 wins given their schedule. In my mind, the only way for Boston to catch either Tampa or NY is if (a) one of those two teams dominates the other, knocking the lesser team within reach, or (b) Boston dominates the head to head games.

I'd also pointed out in that chatter that they went .500 on a three-city road trip that involved two first-place teams, and a .500 record is what you'd expect a great team to do on that kind of trip. And that was without Pedroia.
   150. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: August 19, 2010 at 01:49 PM (#3620176)
149 - I would agree with all of that. As tough a season as this has been the Sox are headed for a 93-96 win season despite the injuries. Unfortunately the Rays and Yankees have decided to win 100 games this year.

With that in mind let me throw out something. Is the 2010 edition of the Red Sox, when healthy, the best team of the Theo Epstein era? I think you can make a pretty good case that had they stayed healthy they would have eclipsed the 2004 team's 98 wins as the highwater mark of the Theo-era which would have been a good argument in their favor.
   151. Joe Bivens, Minor Genius Posted: August 19, 2010 at 01:56 PM (#3620180)
I think they have the best pitching since '04.
   152. Spaceman Posted: August 19, 2010 at 02:13 PM (#3620193)
I think it's his best, yes. The team's only holes are its middle relief and hard-line on salaries. I say that assuming that if Theo didn't construct a $170 mil team, money may have been available to snag Snyder and a few bullpen arms, and maybe more viable alternatives to Patterson and McD, although we were fortunate with McD. Regardless of Lucciano's claims stating otherwise, the team did not appear willing to eclipse the luxury tax threshold.
   153. Nasty Nate Posted: August 19, 2010 at 02:14 PM (#3620195)
I have read that Adam LaRoche cleared waivers. Can anyone explain to me why the Red Sox wouldn't have put in a claim (to at least block him from someone else).?
   154. Spaceman Posted: August 19, 2010 at 02:25 PM (#3620210)
He would have cost $3 mil.
   155. Nasty Nate Posted: August 19, 2010 at 02:32 PM (#3620217)
that doesn't sound like much. he homered again last night, I would have liked them to gamble that his first and second half splits are meaningful.
   156. Spaceman Posted: August 19, 2010 at 02:39 PM (#3620225)
It's doesn't but it would put the team over the threshold, hence my opinion. I'm actually more surprised Atlanta passed on him.
   157. Cowboy Popup Posted: August 19, 2010 at 02:44 PM (#3620229)
It's doesn't but it would put the team over the threshold, hence my opinion. I'm actually more surprised Atlanta passed on him.

The Atlanta fans said they couldn't afford LaRoche. He has a salary bump for his option year (to 9 mil IIRC) if he gets traded and a 1.5 million dollar buy-out. Because he seems to always have big second halves, it's surprising no one has grabbed him yet but I guess money is tight after all the draftees have been signed.
   158. Spaceman Posted: August 19, 2010 at 02:50 PM (#3620245)
Tough times. It wasn't long ago that $3 mil (or $9 mil) was chump change. Yankees are holding all the cards for the foreseeable future and that's depressing.
   159. Nasty Nate Posted: August 19, 2010 at 02:51 PM (#3620247)
Does the salary bump happen if he is waived and claimed, and just given to the claiming team? Is that considered a trade?
   160. Cowboy Popup Posted: August 19, 2010 at 02:55 PM (#3620249)
No idea, all it says on Cots is:

2011 option increases to $9.5M if traded

I assume it's a trade, but I don't really know.
   161. Spaceman Posted: August 19, 2010 at 02:58 PM (#3620255)
Does the salary bump happen if he is waived and claimed

Not sure that even matters as the teams who would be most interested probably would not want him next year, anyway. I'm pretty sure he's still in Arizona because of his cost this year.
   162. Nasty Nate Posted: August 19, 2010 at 03:14 PM (#3620286)
Cot's says the option is mutual, though, so he might exercise it if it was bumped up.
   163. Spaceman Posted: August 19, 2010 at 03:24 PM (#3620294)
Doesn't matter if he wants to exercise it, the hypothetical team that claims him would have to exercise it, as well; it's a mutual option.
   164. Dale Sams Posted: August 19, 2010 at 03:43 PM (#3620314)
I think you can make a pretty good case that had they stayed healthy


Right before Pedey and VMart went down, they looked like they could beat anyone.
   165. Petunia inquires about ponies Posted: August 19, 2010 at 03:51 PM (#3620321)
Can they go 7-2 on this homestand? Can they go 2-1 at Baltimore? At this point which one would be more difficult?

Tonight would be a huge win, to sweep the Halos and build some momentum for the Jays would be nice... but I don't think we have any idea what to expect out of Beckett. I always hate playing Toronto, but in a way it's sort of cool that we get to see them again so soon after last Thursday's game, which was absolutely brutal. That last series against the M's was also pretty painful. 7-2 seems to be asking a lot. Then again, as you point out, so does taking 2 out of 3 at Baltimore. Although the Sox are working on a two-series streak of taking 2 out of 3 against the O's since getting swept there at the end of April.

Count me among those who would have liked to see the Sox stretch it a little bit to make a couple of the cash-only moves that other teams seem to be beating them on right now (really wanted Snyder, LaRoche would be great, although I think we can definitely get by without Derrek Lee, and damn near ANYBODY would be preferable to Eric Patterson IMO, not to totally dismiss the value he's brought to the team just in being able to run out there and play a few positions (albeit poorly), I just hate him). But... I don't think it's all over yet. VI is doing a great job keeping us all informed about the schedule and how big a role the head-to-head (-to-head) games between the Sox, the Rays, and the Yanks are going to play in the final tally. Seems like every week or couple of weeks I'm telling myself 'well, they haven't let themselves get knocked out of contention during this stretch against [a and b decent team], even playing without [c, d, and e Sox player], so maybe they can still tear off a winning streak and vault back up into striking distance...' and I'm still telling myself that.
   166. Nasty Nate Posted: August 19, 2010 at 04:02 PM (#3620333)
Doesn't matter if he wants to exercise it, the hypothetical team that claims him would have to exercise it, as well; it's a mutual option.


ahhhh, correct. I had incorrectly enterpreted it as 2 individual options.
   167. villageidiom Posted: August 23, 2010 at 03:46 PM (#3623353)
vs CLE: 2-0 1-1
at NYY: 2-2
at TOR: 2-1
at TEX: 1-2
vs LAA: 2-1
vs TOR: 2-1
vs SEA: 3-0
at TBR: 1-2
at BAL: 2-1
prior to Labor Day weekend: 17-10 16-11

vs CHW: 2-1
vs TBR: 2-1
at OAK: 2-1
at SEA: 2-1
vs TOR: 3-0
vs BAL: 3-0
at NYY: 1-2
at CHW: 2-2
vs NYY: 2-1
September stretch run: 19-9

From today forward: 36-19 35-20
Final record: 97-65 96-66

- - - - -

Anything's possible.
   168. rLr Is King Of The Romans And Above Grammar Posted: August 23, 2010 at 03:57 PM (#3623367)
Anything's possible.

The problem for the Red Sox is that neither New York nor Tampa has faltered much.
   169. villageidiom Posted: August 23, 2010 at 04:53 PM (#3623451)
The problem for the Red Sox is that neither New York nor Tampa has faltered much.
And I don't expect that either will. But if one of them falters against the other, they could get knocked down far enough for Boston to catch them. Unfortunately, I think (a) the Yankees are more likely to beat down the Rays, but (b) the Rays have an easier schedule. The Red Sox don't need offsetting effects.
   170. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: August 23, 2010 at 05:06 PM (#3623466)
Tampa has really taken care of business in the last week. To sweep Texas and take 2 of 3 in Oakland was a big deal. I think a 3-3 week for them looked possible or even probable. The Sox are playing just well enough not to pack it in but it is looking increasingly likely that 3-3 against TB or NY (as reasonably predicted by VI) is not going to be sufficient.
   171. villageidiom Posted: August 23, 2010 at 05:40 PM (#3623522)
A similar exercise for Tampa's remaining schedule:

at LAA 2-1 / vs BOS 2-1 / vs TOR 2-1
at BAL 2-1 / at BOS 1-2 / at TOR 2-1
vs NYY 2-1 / vs LAA 2-1 / at NYY 2-2
vs SEA 3-0 / vs BAL 3-0 / at KCR 3-1

76-48 as of now, 26-12 the rest of the way, 102-60 final. Their last ten games is about the nicest schedule a contending team could have.

The Yankees:

at TOR 2-1 / at CHW 1-2 / vs OAK 3-1
vs TOR 2-1 / vs BAL 3-0 / at TEX 1-2
at TBR 1-2 / at BAL 2-1 / vs TBR 2-2
vs BOS 2-1 / at TOR 2-1 / at BOS 1-2

77-47 as of now, 22-16 the rest of the way, 99-63 final.

So, yeah, if both Tampa and Boston win one more game against NY than outlined here, and all else goes as I've outlined, the Yankees and Red Sox would be tied for second - and ostensibly the wild card - at 97 wins.
   172. Textbook Editor Posted: August 23, 2010 at 05:59 PM (#3623567)
The Red Sox really can't afford a 3-3 record against either TB or NY in the homestretch. I think they need to go 5-1 in both to have any kind of realistic shot. They should treat those 12 games like playoff games and pull out all the stops in order to win them.
   173. Dale Sams Posted: August 23, 2010 at 06:15 PM (#3623603)
at OAK: 2-1
at SEA: 2-1
vs TOR: 3-0
vs BAL: 3-0


This is the part I find most unlikely.
   174. villageidiom Posted: August 23, 2010 at 09:11 PM (#3623865)
This is the part I find most unlikely.
I'm guessing those teams will, in September, not be playing their usual starting nine.

Apparently neither will the Red Sox, but that's not really a new development.
   175. villageidiom Posted: August 26, 2010 at 05:25 PM (#3626543)
Boston
vs SEA 2-1 / at TBR 1-2 / at BAL 2-1
vs CHW 2-1 / vs TBR 2-1 / at OAK 2-1
at SEA 2-1 / vs TOR 3-0 / vs BAL 3-0
at NYY 1-2 / at CHW 2-2 / vs NYY 2-1
Final record 95-67

Yankees
at TOR 1-2 / at CHW 1-2 / vs OAK 3-1
vs TOR 2-1 / vs BAL 3-0 / at TEX 1-2
at TBR 1-2 / at BAL 2-1 / vs TBR 2-2
vs BOS 2-1 / at TOR 2-1 / at BOS 1-2
Final record 98-64

Rays
at LAA 2-1 / vs BOS 2-1 / vs TOR 2-1
at BAL 2-1 / at BOS 1-2 / at TOR 2-1
vs NYY 2-1 / vs LAA 2-1 / at NYY 2-2
vs SEA 3-0 / vs BAL 3-0 / at KCR 3-1
Final record 102-60

- - - - -

Although Boston - thanks to last night's loss - was one game worse than my roadmap on this homestand, the Yankees also were one game worse for the Toronto series. They are still separated by three games on the roadmap.

In the three weeks since I laid out the roadmap, Boston is underperforming it by two games. To catch up to the other teams, either they need to sweep a lot of series, win every series against NY and Tampa, or hope that one of the other teams falter. As mentioned by someone in another thread, if they can go 4-2 against Tampa and 4-2 against NY, they're right there. But they're not playing like a team that can do that.
   176. Pingu Posted: August 26, 2010 at 05:57 PM (#3626581)
The Red Sox are actually playing pretty well lately, IMO. They are winning most of their series (too lazy to go back and look, I'd guess 5 of the last 7, including the split w/ Yankees). The problem is that wont be enough by itself w/ the Rays and Yankees both keeping pace.

Sweeping the Rays this weekend would help me restore a bit of faith, but I'm not optimistic w/ Price, Garza, Shields on the mound.

I really like the Rays to win this division, I think they are the better team at this point.
   177. villageidiom Posted: August 30, 2010 at 12:59 PM (#3629675)
Boston
vs SEA 2-1 / at TBR 1-2 / at BAL 2-1
vs CHW 2-1 / vs TBR 2-1 / at OAK 2-1
at SEA 2-1 / vs TOR 3-0 / vs BAL 3-0
at NYY 1-2 / at CHW 2-2 / vs NYY 2-1
Final record 95-67

Yankees
at TOR 1-2 / at CHW 2-1 / vs OAK 3-1
vs TOR 2-1 / vs BAL 3-0 / at TEX 1-2
at TBR 1-2 / at BAL 2-1 / vs TBR 2-2
vs BOS 2-1 / at TOR 2-1 / at BOS 1-2
Final record 99-63

Rays
at LAA 2-1 / vs BOS 2-1 / vs TOR 2-1
at BAL 2-1 / at BOS 1-2 / at TOR 2-1
vs NYY 2-1 / vs LAA 2-1 / at NYY 2-2
vs SEA 3-0 / vs BAL 3-0 / at KCR 3-1
Final record 102-60

- - - - -

Well, that sucked. While Boston and Tampa played according to the script - which Boston needed to improve on - the Dodgers decided it would be best to delay sending Manny Ramirez to Chicago until after the Yankees were done with them but before Boston plays seven against them. The Yankees are now one game better than the roadmap had. I still argue that the Rays are a more likely division winner, which means Boston can ill afford for the Yankees to outperform the roadmap.

I think it's safe to say it's reasonably out of their hands now. Boston must rely on one of the two teams ahead of them to slump enough to be caught.
   178. Joe Bivens, Minor Genius Posted: August 30, 2010 at 01:06 PM (#3629679)
Funny how early on in the year some people were saying that the Rays were a lock to win the division.
   179. villageidiom Posted: September 03, 2010 at 01:12 PM (#3632751)
Boston
vs SEA 2-1 / at TBR 1-2 / at BAL 2-1
vs CHW 2-1 / vs TBR 2-1 / at OAK 2-1
at SEA 2-1 / vs TOR 3-0 / vs BAL 3-0
at NYY 1-2 / at CHW 2-2 / vs NYY 2-1
Final record 95-67

Yankees
at TOR 1-2 / at CHW 2-1 / vs OAK 4-0
vs TOR 2-1 / vs BAL 3-0 / at TEX 1-2
at TBR 1-2 / at BAL 2-1 / vs TBR 2-2
vs BOS 2-1 / at TOR 2-1 / at BOS 1-2
Final record 100-62

Rays
at LAA 2-1 / vs BOS 2-1 / vs TOR 2-1
at BAL 2-1 / at BOS 1-2 / at TOR 2-1
vs NYY 2-1 / vs LAA 2-1 / at NYY 2-2
vs SEA 3-0 / vs BAL 3-0 / at KCR 3-1
Final record 102-60

- - - - -

For the second straight series the Yankees outplayed the expectation while the other teams went according to the script. That's bad news for Boston.

In the next 9 games the roadmap has Boston gaining only on Tampa, and only by one game. If Boston slips this week it will hurt them twice: either it will be to the advantage of the team ahead of them for the WC (Tampa) or to the advantage of the team behind them for the WC (Chicago). OTOH, there is no better time to outperform the roadmap than this week.
   180. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: September 03, 2010 at 03:24 PM (#3632895)
Since this seems to be the active ST thread for the moment, I will probably be in Boston the weekend of Septmebr 17-19. So could anyone advice on favorable seating for Fenway? Obviously I'll be doing StubHub and looking to avoid spending half my paychek on a ticket, so I'm just curious where people recommend to sit without paying a huge amount.
   181. Joe Bivens, Minor Genius Posted: September 03, 2010 at 03:29 PM (#3632901)
You could probably get away with buying the cheapest seats available on those services (SRO?) and finding an empty seat in a decent section.
   182. rLr Is King Of The Romans And Above Grammar Posted: September 03, 2010 at 03:30 PM (#3632904)
I will probably be in Boston the weekend of Septmebr 17-19. So could anyone advice on favorable seating for Fenway? Obviously I'll be doing StubHub and looking to avoid spending half my paychek on a ticket, so I'm just curious where people recommend to sit without paying a huge amount.

By then, the Sox will probably be out of it. Perhaps that will make tickets a little more attainable.
   183. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: September 03, 2010 at 03:37 PM (#3632917)
RB - How many seats do you need? I have two in the grandstand 1B line (section 15) for the Saturday game against Toronto. $94 for the pair I'll give 'em to you for face if you want.
   184. Joe Bivens, Minor Genius Posted: September 03, 2010 at 03:58 PM (#3632938)
Those are good, rb...the lower the better, but that's a good section.
   185. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: September 03, 2010 at 04:47 PM (#3632980)
JCYS, it's just me, so I only need the one. Thanks though.
   186. villageidiom Posted: September 09, 2010 at 11:57 AM (#3636710)
Boston
vs CHW 0-3 / vs TBR 2-1 / at OAK 2-1
at SEA 2-1 / vs TOR 3-0 / vs BAL 3-0
at NYY 1-2 / at CHW 2-2 / vs NYY 2-1
Final record 93-69

Yankees
vs TOR 2-1 / vs BAL 1-2 / at TEX 1-2
at TBR 1-2 / at BAL 2-1 / vs TBR 2-2
vs BOS 2-1 / at TOR 2-1 / at BOS 1-2
Final record 98-64

Rays
at BAL 1-2 / at BOS 1-2 / at TOR 2-1
vs NYY 2-1 / vs LAA 2-1 / at NYY 2-2
vs SEA 3-0 / vs BAL 3-0 / at KCR 3-1
Final record 101-61

- - - - -

The White Sox series knocked Boston two games off the pace I'd set long ago. Even 95 wins would be a stretch at this point.

Despite that they haven't lost any ground to the Yankees, who, after a couple of weeks surging ahead of the pace I'd set, slipped back a bit by losing a series at home against Baltimore. Still, "not losing ground" isn't a winning option for Boston at this point.
   187. Norcan Posted: September 09, 2010 at 12:33 PM (#3636726)
I gave up after the massacre Tuesday night but I've edged a bit back after they thrashed Tampa for the second time in three games. It's not out of the realm of possibility that they sweep Oakland and Seattle back to back and make up at least four games with Tampa taking on Toronto and the Yankees. That'll leave two weeks to make up 2.5 games. It's all going to hinge on these upcoming games but I think it's doable.
   188. villageidiom Posted: September 09, 2010 at 12:51 PM (#3636736)
When you look at the Yankees' remaining schedule - home series against Tampa and Boston, and road series against the AL East plus Texas - there's enough room for something to go in Boston's favor. Still, the pace I laid out above already has Boston gaining 4.5 on NY in the next 4 series. Boston needs it to go better than that - e.g. if Tampa can dominate NY in their remaining matchups - or they'll need to sweep the remaining head-to-head games with NY.

I doubt it, but we'll see what develops in the next week or two.
   189. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: September 09, 2010 at 01:08 PM (#3636750)
####, the Yankees could lose 10 games in a row like the Padres.
   190. Pingu Posted: September 09, 2010 at 01:22 PM (#3636764)
Are you people serious?

Really? I cant believe it. I'm proud of you guys, but I gave up after they lost the Tampa series. It was liberating.

My really superly complex and accurate ATOCEP playoff odds puts the Red Sox at 0.01%. Keep dreaming the good dream, though.
   191. Dale Sams Posted: September 09, 2010 at 01:48 PM (#3636804)
My really superly complex and accurate ATOCEP playoff odds puts the Red Sox at 0.01%. Keep dreaming the good dream, though.


Sox will go 11-11 down the stretch. And that's being optimistic.
   192. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: September 09, 2010 at 02:12 PM (#3636832)
I gave up when Youk went down. I'm just saying stuff here.
   193. villageidiom Posted: September 13, 2010 at 11:42 AM (#3639295)
Boston
vs CHW 0-3 / vs TBR 2-1 / at OAK 1-2
at SEA 2-1 / vs TOR 3-0 / vs BAL 3-0
at NYY 1-2 / at CHW 2-2 / vs NYY 2-1
Final record 92-70

Yankees
vs TOR 2-1 / vs BAL 1-2 / at TEX 0-3
at TBR 1-2 / at BAL 2-1 / vs TBR 2-2
vs BOS 2-1 / at TOR 2-1 / at BOS 1-2
Final record 97-65

Rays
at BAL 1-2 / at BOS 1-2 / at TOR 2-1
vs NYY 2-1 / vs LAA 2-1 / at NYY 2-2
vs SEA 3-0 / vs BAL 3-0 / at KCR 3-1
Final record 101-61

- - - - -

Boston slips again, NY slips again, Tampa keeps rolling along.
   194. Answer Guy Posted: September 13, 2010 at 12:58 PM (#3639307)
Can we all agree that it's really over now?
   195. villageidiom Posted: September 13, 2010 at 01:04 PM (#3639309)
Can we all agree that it's really over now?
You did see the name of the thread, right?
   196. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: September 13, 2010 at 01:26 PM (#3639315)
I have been more productive this September with my work, as a dad, exercising, etc., than I have been since any September since about 2001. I love my Red Sox, but I am more fully appreciating in 2010 ow many hours have been diverted to Red Sox games/stories/conversation over the past eight years or so.

This is what should scare Red Sox management about the declining NESN ratings - I thought I'd be a lot more upset about the Red Sox being out of it in September than I am...
   197. Answer Guy Posted: September 13, 2010 at 01:36 PM (#3639321)
You did see the name of the thread, right?


Yes, but reading the thread suggested an awful lot of optimism by some observers, some of it as recently as the time imemdiately prior to dropping 2 of 3 to Oakland. I was surprised that the weekend the other Sox passed them in the standings by beating our guys in Fenway wasn't enough for some folks.
   198. Textbook Editor Posted: September 13, 2010 at 02:15 PM (#3639358)
Well, look, the situation isn't dead, gone, buried--there's still a very slim chance. But now it requires NYY sweeping all 7 games from TB while we go on a hot streak, and then us sweeping NYY while TB collapses against minnows in the last 2 weeks. It's not impossible (in this scenario, NYY would have little to play for when they face us, to our advantage), but rather very improbable--the 2% chance Baseball Prospectus has for us seems about right.
   199. SoSH U at work Posted: September 13, 2010 at 02:24 PM (#3639367)
Well, look, the situation isn't dead, gone, buried--there's still a very slim chance. But now it requires NYY sweeping all 7 games from TB while we go on a hot streak, and then us sweeping NYY while TB collapses against minnows in the last 2 weeks. It's not impossible (in this scenario, NYY would have little to play for when they face us, to our advantage), but rather very improbable--the 2% chance Baseball Prospectus has for us seems about right.


I don't know. If we're going to go to the trouble of sweeping six from the Yankees, wouldn't it make more sense for them to suffer the late-season collapse.

Either way, as far as plans go, I like it, though I'm a little skeptical the principals involved are capable of its execution.
   200. Textbook Editor Posted: September 13, 2010 at 02:52 PM (#3639394)
Flip.

The odds seem to indicate there's almost no chance of a division win (which I would concur with). We're 7.5 out of the WC with 19 to play and 8 out of the division. I suppose in practice it doesn't matter if the Yankees sweep TB or the other way around, but if TB takes all 7 from the Yankees, you can bet the Yankees will show up for the 6 we have to play against them, and it would be to our decided advantage to have them be on auto-pilot.
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