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— Where Thinking Red Sox Fans Obsess about the Sox

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   201. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: September 13, 2010 at 07:28 PM (#3639648)
I've got to believe it would be easier to make up eight games in the standings against the team we play six times rather than a team we do not play at all. Either one requires a miracle at this point but at least against the Yankees we have some control over the miracle.
   202. Textbook Editor Posted: September 14, 2010 at 04:21 AM (#3639933)
Hmmm... If the Red Sox can finish off the Mariners, they'd be 7 games behind the Yankees with 18 to play, including 6 against the Yankees. I think I'm now going to be in the camp that says Red Sox fans should root for a 7-game sweep of TB over the Yankees over the next week or so, as that may just get us within shouting distance by the time we have our 6 games against them.

This is all going to end up like 2000, isn't it?
   203. villageidiom Posted: September 14, 2010 at 11:25 AM (#3639993)
I think I'm now going to be in the camp that says Red Sox fans should root for a 7-game sweep of TB over the Yankees over the next week or so, as that may just get us within shouting distance by the time we have our 6 games against them.
That's been my narrative for almost a month now. Boston needs help, and the best help they could get is for Tampa to destroy NY in their head-to-head games, knocking the Yankees down far enough for Boston to catch them. I doubt it'll happen, but that's what they need.

They also need to take care of business in Chicago.
   204. Textbook Editor Posted: September 14, 2010 at 04:20 PM (#3640230)
Personally, stealing a playoff spot from the Yankees this season would be enough for me from this team; anything that were to happen in the playoffs would just be gravy. It would be wonderful to have a NY collapse in our pocket.
   205. Paxton Crawford Ranch Posted: September 15, 2010 at 02:05 PM (#3640867)
The Red Sox win, they gain half a game in the wild card standings, and their playoff odds drop from 3.1 to 2.7%. Basically, BP is saying Boston has no chance of catching the Rays and gaining on them is useless if it comes via a New York win. It underscores the fact that the only way into the playoffs for the Sox is to take a bunch of games from the Yankees head-to-head and root root root for the Rays.
   206. SoSH U at work Posted: September 15, 2010 at 02:26 PM (#3640890)
It underscores the fact that the only way into the playoffs for the Sox is to take a bunch of games from the Yankees head-to-head and root root root for the Rays.


I like that this dovetails nicely with what I was hoping for/planning to do anyway, regardless of playoff implications.
   207. Kurt Posted: September 15, 2010 at 06:56 PM (#3641232)
So the case is (was) built on the Yankees playing 13 games against Tampa and Boston, and losing all 13 of them? Do I have that right?
   208. Paxton Crawford Ranch Posted: September 15, 2010 at 07:52 PM (#3641283)
So the case is (was) built on the Yankees playing 13 games against Tampa and Boston, and losing all 13 of them? Do I have that right?
There's only 11 of those games left at this point and I'd say the Sox probably need New York to go 3-8 to have a chance. But it really depends on the breakdown: if New York goes 4-1 against Tampa, while Boston is sweeping Seattle and Baltimore, then goes 0-6 against the Sox, they're tied. If they split with Boston, even going 0-5 against Tampa with Boston cleaning up against the M's and O's wouldn't get the Sox back into it.

So no, Boston doesn't need New York to lose the rest of its games against them and Tampa: they need to win 5 out of 6 against the Yankees, Tampa to take 2 out of 5, and to hold strong against some last place teams. A slim chance to be sure, but not the 1 in 10,000 of expecting any team to lose 13 straight against a fairly evenly matched opponent. 2-3% seems about right to me.
   209. villageidiom Posted: September 15, 2010 at 08:02 PM (#3641296)
How the case is built now, yeah, that's pretty much it. It's certainly possible, though very unlikely, for a championship-caliber team to falter in a long stretch against well-playing teams. To wit, in a two-month span last year NY went 2-11 against Tampa and Boston.

Feel free to peruse any of the prior pages of the thread to see how the case was built, but enough Boston slippage (or treading of water) has happened since then to make the old case irrelevant.
   210. Textbook Editor Posted: September 16, 2010 at 02:30 AM (#3641625)
5.5 back of NY with 16 to play.

The Yankees have 3 in Baltimore and then 4 at home against TB before we face them. We have 3 at home against Toronto and 3 at home against Baltimore.

I can't imagine the Yankees going any worse than 2-1 against Baltimore, so we need to go at least 2-1 against Toronto to hold this at 5.5 going into our Baltimore series. I think we really need to sweep the Baltimore series. If we can do that, and NY goes 2-1 on Baltimore and splits the 4 against TB, we'd be 4 back with 10 to play, 6 of which would be head-to-head and 4 on the road against a Chicago team that by that time might well be eliminated.

I don't want to say this is an impossible task--but it remains improbable. But it would be really nice to go into NY 4 down with 6 head-to-head games left.
   211. villageidiom Posted: September 16, 2010 at 03:06 AM (#3641644)
Boston
at SEA 3-0 / vs TOR 3-0 / vs BAL 3-0
at NYY 1-2 / at CHW 2-2 / vs NYY 2-1
Final record 93-69

Yankees
at TBR 1-2 / at BAL 2-1 / vs TBR 2-2
vs BOS 2-1 / at TOR 2-1 / at BOS 1-2
Final record 97-65

Rays
vs NYY 2-1 / vs LAA 2-1 / at NYY 2-2
vs SEA 3-0 / vs BAL 3-0 / at KCR 3-1
Final record 101-61

- - - - -

Boston held serve on the road trip, going 4-2 as I'd paced it. Yankees and Rays played each other as I'd paced it. But Boston needs things to go better than the pace. This pace will only get them to 4 GB of NY at the end.

And it doesn't help that I have Boston sweeping the upcoming homestand. They cannot gain ground (on my pace) in the next week without help from the O's and Rays.
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