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   1. Mike Emeigh Posted: January 30, 2008 at 04:38 AM (#2679476)
The Red Sox picked up David Aardsma from Chicago for Willy Mota and Miguel Socolovich. The Sox didn’t give up much and he had nice K rates in AAA and MLB last year, so it seems pretty reasonable.


They didn't give up much, but they didn't get much either. Aardsma is low-leverage filler.

-- MWE
   2. akrasian Posted: January 30, 2008 at 04:44 AM (#2679480)
maybe the Dodgers will do something foolish.

The Dodgers have 4 centerfielders on their major league roster (Jones, Kemp, Pierre, and Repko). Why on Earth would they trade for another one?
   3. Dan Posted: January 30, 2008 at 04:49 AM (#2679487)
Crisp to Minnesota could still make some sense if the Twins want to give Gomez some time at AAA. Otherwise, it's probably the White Sox or the A's.
   4. Valentine Posted: January 30, 2008 at 04:51 AM (#2679493)
Mike, unless I'm misunderstanding your use of "low-leverage filler", I'm not sure I would agree. Seems to me that he has the potential to be very good but will more likely play himself off the roster within a couple months. To me, at least, "low-leverage filler" is a label that better fits somebody like Snyder who seems competent but is unlikely to ever be better than that.

I would expect Crisp to be moved within a week -- but only if another team is willing to offer something substantial. Once Santana is out of the way we'll know for sure whether there is real interest in Crisp.
   5. Sean McNally Posted: January 30, 2008 at 05:09 AM (#2679506)
Aardsma's the best player ever in history! That's why he gets to be listed first!
   6. Dan Posted: January 30, 2008 at 05:10 AM (#2679507)
The Cubs might also have some interest in Crisp, if they aren't comfortable handing the CF job to Pie, or if they send Pie to Baltimore for Roberts.
   7. philly Posted: January 30, 2008 at 05:15 AM (#2679510)
Actually the Cubs are a good, new-ish name. They have been rumored to be interested in Marlon Byrd to cover CF although I think that was a contingency for trading Pie for Bedard which is now out.
   8. HGM Posted: January 30, 2008 at 05:18 AM (#2679514)
The Dodgers have 4 centerfielders on their major league roster (Jones, Kemp, Pierre, and Repko). Why on Earth would they trade for another one?

Why on Earth would they sign Juan Pierre to a five-year deal?
   9. akrasian Posted: January 30, 2008 at 06:29 AM (#2679573)
Why on Earth would they sign Juan Pierre to a five-year deal?

Love of gritty base stealers, of course.

Let's put it another way - since the Dodgers already signed a top CF this offseason, and since by plan they've avoided trading any prospects this offseason, why would they trade for a player in a position of surplus?

Now, if the Sox had a good backup catcher on the market, that might be different.
   10. My guest will be Jermaine Allensworth Posted: January 30, 2008 at 06:59 AM (#2679597)
I forget who, but someone keeps mentioning the ChiSox as a possible partner, being as they need a CF and could part with Carlos Quentin.

I wouldn't necessarily call this unrealistic, but Williams is extremely high on Quentin, saying something to the effect of not wanting to get "someone like Carlos Quentin, but Carlos Quentin." They're both Stanford guys, too, for what it's worth.

Salary difference would be hard to reconcile as well.
   11. Marcel Posted: January 30, 2008 at 07:09 AM (#2679600)
Well, if the M's really do trade Jones et al for Bedard, they could certainly use an outfielder that doesn't completely suck defensively. And Clement would certainly be a catching prospect I would be gald to have. Assuming, of course, he isn't included in the Bedard deal. In which case, it should be easy to trade with the Orioles since they already have Wieters.
   12. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: January 30, 2008 at 07:10 AM (#2679601)
Not that it's a big point, but some people seem to think that Matt Kemp is a centerfielder while Nick Swisher isn't. I think your definition of "centerfielder" has to include either both, or neither.
   13. akrasian Posted: January 30, 2008 at 07:20 AM (#2679606)
Not that it's a big point, but some people seem to think that Matt Kemp is a centerfielder while Nick Swisher isn't. I think your definition of "centerfielder" has to include either both, or neither.

Well, Kemp did play it in the minors. Also, before the Dodgers signed Jones they were talking about moving Pierre to left and having Kemp in center - so yes, he's a cf. I'll grant that he's raw defensively still, but he certainly has the tools for it, and didn't look bad out there when I saw him play, either.

I have no idea if Swisher was viewed as a future major league centerfielder when he was coming up through the A's system, like Kemp was viewed coming up through the Dodger system.
   14. JB H Posted: January 30, 2008 at 08:15 AM (#2679618)
I guess I don't really see the point of trading Crisp.

Offense + defense, he's probably about the 10th best CFer in baseball next year, and he'll be 28. He's only making $6 million a year over the next three. He is a really valuable asset. Unfortunately, really good defenders are undervalued as a group, so there's no way the Sox get close to fair value for him.

The only names I've heard rumored to be dealt for Crisp were Gerald Laird and pitching prospects I've never heard of that didn't have great stats. Just keep him.

You're much more likely to get fair value for Ellsbury.
   15. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: January 30, 2008 at 08:36 AM (#2679621)
If we're dealing Crisp, I'd like to get rid of Javier Lopez.

Btw, kevin gregg might be a good guy to target. he'll make 2.5 mil, which florida will not pay.
   16. Mattbert Posted: January 30, 2008 at 11:37 AM (#2679636)
Crisp would be a great fit for Seattle if they deal Jones. There's no way they'd give up Clement for him, though. I wonder if they'd do something like a Crisp/Lowrie for Sherrill/Clement deal.
   17. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: January 30, 2008 at 12:30 PM (#2679639)
You must be either very low on Jed Lowrie or very high on Jeff Clement to advocate that trade.
   18. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: January 30, 2008 at 01:17 PM (#2679650)
Crisp would be a great fit for Seattle if they deal Jones.
He's only a good fit if Ichiro would agree to move out of CF, which I don't think he wants to do. Coco's bat doesn't really play in RF (nor does his arm, for that matter). Seattle seems like a lousy fit, Jones trade or no.

I think the market for Crisp is probably weaker than Sox fans imagine. I assume Theo and gang are aware of how Crisp ranks defensively, whereas someone like Seattle probably sees a guy who is a good CF, sure, but nothing special but who has mysteriously stopped hitting and got benched in the playoffs for a rookie.
   19. 1k5v3L Posted: January 30, 2008 at 01:18 PM (#2679652)
I think the market for Crisp is probably weaker than Sox fans imagine.
Hey, you, get off of kevin's cloud.
   20. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: January 30, 2008 at 01:33 PM (#2679655)
JBH -

I basically agree with you on Crisp's trade value. The issue is that Crisp has requested, publicly, to have a starting job next year, by trade if necessary. I think it's rarely a good idea to keep a guy around on the bench when he doesn't want to and doesn't have to be there. If Crisp didn't really mean that, or if they can convince him there isn't another job out there, then I'd love to keep him around. But I think it's likely he's traded, and even if the return isn't great, it's still a good idea.
   21. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: January 30, 2008 at 02:44 PM (#2679689)
10th best CF in baseball, now that I think more about it, definitely doesn't sound right to me. There's a huge regression on any defensive projection, and Crisp sucked in 2006.

Granderson, Sizemore, Beltran, Ichiro, Wells, Rowand, Upton, Hunter, Cameron, Jones

That's 10 who are definitely superior. Then you got quasi-CFs like Swisher, Hart, and Pence who are far superior hitters, young guys like Young who should project better going forward, prospects like Pie, Jones, Ellsbury, and Milledge, pretty good players like DeJesus and Cabrera who are hard to mark as clearly worse.

I'm willing to be convinced if someone wants to do the legwork and put together the projection numbers, obviously, but it would be, at the least, quite a counterintuitive finding.
   22. Mattbert Posted: January 30, 2008 at 02:55 PM (#2679695)
You must be either very low on Jed Lowrie or very high on Jeff Clement to advocate that trade.

My view is that a large part of Lowrie's value to the Sox is tied up in whether or not he can stick as a SS in the majors, and opinion varies widely on that subject. He can certainly hit, but even if he can play a suitable SS I fear he may be blocked for too long unless Theo can find a taker for Lugo somehow.

I haven't read anything about Clement that suggests he can't handle catcher defensively. The Sox have no promising replacement for Varitek in sight, and he's not going to play forever. I have more confidence in the Sox' development system to produce another good young infielder than a good young catcher; the latter is just harder to find, period. Presumably the Mariners know this as well and aren't going to hand over one of the few good catching prospects in the game unless they get something pretty good in return. I don't think Boston would get him for much less than a Lowrie or equivalent A-/B+ prospect of their own.

He's only a good fit if Ichiro would agree to move out of CF, which I don't think he wants to do. Coco's bat doesn't really play in RF (nor does his arm, for that matter). Seattle seems like a lousy fit, Jones trade or no.

I was not aware Ichiro had expressed any strong preference to remain in center. My understanding was that Seattle installed him there after finally getting their fill of watching various guys not named Mike Cameron run around out there and suddenly realizing they had a pretty good centerfielder playing RF for no apparent reason. Of course you don't bring in Crisp to play a corner; the majority of his value is in his glove at this point. My thinking was that Seattle could have a pretty remarkable defensive outfield if they do indeed sign Wilkerson and have him and Ichiro on either side of Coco out there. That'd be quite an asset in that park.
   23. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: January 30, 2008 at 03:00 PM (#2679699)
I thought it took Seattle years to convince Ichiro to move out of right to center?
   24. JB H Posted: January 30, 2008 at 05:33 PM (#2679845)
Whether Coco is the 8th or the 14th best CFer isn't really the point, although I definently disagree with some of those names. The projection seems to have him a little above average offensively, and he's a really good defender. He's maybe a win above average for next year.

It shouldn't be too hard to find a lot of playing time for him next year. There's not much of a difference between him and Ellsbury for 2008. I don't see the problem with having them split the CF job pretty close to 50/50, and having both play when one of the corners is out. That's probably 1000 PAs total between them if they don't miss time.

I'm also not opposed to trading Ellsbury. He has less value to the Sox than most other teams, and it seems like other teams probably would value him pretty close to correctly.
   25. 1k5v3L Posted: January 30, 2008 at 05:51 PM (#2679871)
although I definently disagree with some of those names.

Which ones? There isn't one name on MCA's list I wouldn't take over Coco as my centerfielder.
   26. baudib Posted: January 30, 2008 at 06:03 PM (#2679885)
I can't imagine any team giving up much for Crisp.
   27. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 30, 2008 at 06:16 PM (#2679900)
The projection seems to have him a little above average offensively

That's far from true. He's put up a 80 OPS+ over the last 2 years. ZIPS has him 40 pts. below avg. OPS for a CF.

If his defense is really great, he might be a little above average overall, but I think it's dangerous to assume awesome D based on 1-year stats.
   28. Stately, Plump Buck Mulligan Posted: January 30, 2008 at 06:33 PM (#2679913)
I think the White Sox might be somewhat interested in Crisp, as Williams loves cost certainty and Crisp is signed fairly cheaply for the next three years. I don't think that Williams would give up Quentin (although, if the White Sox get Crisp, I don't know where Quentin fits in). Of course, Williams tends to do deals on the QT, so it wouldn't surprise me at all to see Konerko get moved somewhere (to Baltimore or the Giants?) before the season starts. Then you just slide Swisher over to 1B and keep Quentin in LF. That still doesn't address what the Red Sox would want.
   29. DKDC Posted: January 30, 2008 at 06:52 PM (#2679932)
In which case, it should be easy to trade with the Orioles since they already have Wieters.

If the Orioles do get Clement and flip him, they'd want Ellsbury, not Crisp.
   30. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: January 30, 2008 at 06:59 PM (#2679942)
I think Crisp makes sense in Oakland. He can play center while the A's sort out their other options. They can flip him later if they decide they want Sweeney or Denorfia to take over full time. I'm not sure what the A's can offer, though, or if Oakland wants to take on Crisp's salary, reasonable as it may be.
   31. Dizzypaco Posted: January 30, 2008 at 07:01 PM (#2679943)
There's not much of a difference between him and Ellsbury for 2008.

I think there will be a big difference between Coco and Ellsbury in 2008. I think Ellsbury will be a good offensive player, and I think Coco will be a bad offensive player. I think (but of course don't know for sure) the Red Sox front office agrees with me.

I can't imagine any team giving up much for Crisp.

I don't think the Red Sox are looking for much. Crisp will sit on the bench, and I don't think he'll be happy doing it.

I basically agree with you on Crisp's trade value. The issue is that Crisp has requested, publicly, to have a starting job next year, by trade if necessary. I think it's rarely a good idea to keep a guy around on the bench when he doesn't want to and doesn't have to be there. If Crisp didn't really mean that, or if they can convince him there isn't another job out there, then I'd love to keep him around. But I think it's likely he's traded, and even if the return isn't great, it's still a good idea.

Exactly
   32. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 30, 2008 at 07:20 PM (#2679972)
I think Crisp makes sense in Oakland. He can play center while the A's sort out their other options.

I don't see anyway Oak pays Crisp $6M per. If Bos eats half the salary maybe Oak gives them a B- prospect.
   33. ellsbury my heart at wounded knee Posted: January 30, 2008 at 07:24 PM (#2679978)
I don't see anyway Oak pays Crisp $6M per. If Bos eats half the salary maybe Oak gives them a B- prospect.

That's the only way I can really see a deal panning out with Crisp. The Red Sox would have to make him very cheap to another team, and the best thing I can see them getting in return is some C+/B- prospect. I'd be surprised if they got much more than that.
   34. DCA Posted: January 30, 2008 at 07:29 PM (#2679982)
I have no idea if Swisher was viewed as a future major league centerfielder when he was coming up through the A's system, like Kemp was viewed coming up through the Dodger system.

Swisher wasn't viewed as a CF coming up by anyone outside the organization, but IIRC he played mostly CF in the minors. I don't know where Kemp played, but I've always heard him talked up as a future corner OF.
   35. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 30, 2008 at 07:30 PM (#2679984)
That's the only way I can really see a deal panning out with Crisp. The Red Sox would have to make him very cheap to another team, and the best thing I can see them getting in return is some C+/B- prospect. I'd be surprised if they got much more than that.

Yeah. Crisp's not good enough for a competitor to really want him, and too expensive for a rebuilder.

Minn. could use him, and probably has a decent AA arm they don't really need, but, Boston would have to eat contract, and Minn. might be pissed at Boston.
   36. OCD SS Posted: January 30, 2008 at 07:35 PM (#2679989)
I tend to think that the ChiSox are the best fit. KW really wanted Crisp earlier in the off season, and none of the guys in their current OF are good CFers. When you add in just how bad Dye is those OF gaps will get pretty big.

Trying to trade with the A's seems like a waste of time. "We don't want to give you any talent, and oh, can you pick up some of his salary, too?"

Since it really looks like the Sox had no intention of acquiring Santana in the first place, I'd be very surprised if Theo doesn't have the basic parameters of a deal worked out. I'm sure he wasn't sitting around and watching the CF market close up while twiddling his thumbs.

I'd be fine with dealing Ellsbury, but the return would have to be much better. Saltalmacchia is the only player I'd deal him for off the top of my head...
   37. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 30, 2008 at 07:38 PM (#2679991)
I tend to think that the ChiSox are the best fit.

Makes sense, but who would Bos want from Chi? Or are you just thinking about dumping the salary.
   38. OCD SS Posted: January 30, 2008 at 07:45 PM (#2679999)
Makes sense, but who would Bos want from Chi? Or are you just thinking about dumping the salary.


Well, I want Quentin, which I think is fair in terms of talent, and leaves the ChiSox with their OF sorted out (Swisher/Crisp/Dye). If Williams is not willing to offer up Quentin then I doubt they have very much and it's back to the drawing board...

Worse case scenario and the Sox just stick Jacoby in Pawtucket and put Crisp in CF until someone realizes "Oh, sh!t. Our guy can't catch the ball that well..."
   39. Valentine Posted: January 30, 2008 at 07:46 PM (#2680000)
There were rumors about Charlie Haeger earlier. Seems a reasonable swap for Crisp, no?
   40. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: January 30, 2008 at 07:46 PM (#2680001)
I tend to think that the ChiSox are the best fit. KW really wanted Crisp earlier in the off season, and none of the guys in their current OF are good CFers. When you add in just how bad Dye is those OF gaps will get pretty big.

I agree, but then what would the Sox do with Swisher or Quentin since Konereko and Thome have 1b/DH blocked? If the Chi Sox move Konerko, then getting Crisp would be a perfect fit, but until then, Crisp sits the bench in Chicago as much as he would in Boston. If Adam Jones does get traded, would the M's want Crisp to play center and move Ichiro back to right? And why the hell weren't the Braves all over Crisp?
   41. villageidiom Posted: January 30, 2008 at 07:47 PM (#2680003)
Right now a lot of Crisp's value is in his defense, and I don't think there are many, if any, GMs in the league who can properly value defense. They value it, of course, but they can't reliably traslate defensive skill into dollars. The wide variance in perceived value, then, will mean that Boston has a better chance of seeing an irrationally high offer for Crisp than they would for, say, Julian Tavarez.

That said, I think his salary includes an assumption of a benefit on offense as well as defense. I'm not so sure a team will offer as much as Boston wants. If a team's OFer goes down with an injury, Crisp is one of the better options out there among players in a "backup" role; but otherwise I'd expect him to be with Boston on opening day.
   42. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 30, 2008 at 07:52 PM (#2680009)
Well, I want Quentin, which I think is fair in terms of talent, and leaves the ChiSox with their OF sorted out (Swisher/Crisp/Dye).

Is Boston eating salary in your scenario? Otherwise doesn't seem fair.
   43. Dizzypaco Posted: January 30, 2008 at 07:56 PM (#2680012)
I don't know why this would be true, but I kind of believe it anyway: Coco Crisp may have an offensive resurgence, but only if he plays for another team - with the Red Sox, it won't happen even if he plays.
   44. OCD SS Posted: January 30, 2008 at 08:05 PM (#2680020)
Is Boston eating salary in your scenario? Otherwise doesn't seem fair.


I think Crisp is cheap enough that I don't care. If the Sox throw some money to KW to grease the skids it wouldn't be a big deal, but at the same time Quentin is coming off of shoulder surgery and is probably going to have to fight for his playing time as is; Since KW has been out looking for a CFer for awhile and coming up short (Rowand, Hunter) he probably won't balk at how much Crisp is making.
   45. TomH Posted: January 30, 2008 at 08:07 PM (#2680023)
The Sox have enough injury potential, alogn with R/L matchups, and need for def subs and pinch runners, that keeping an extra guy that can spell 5 of the 8 starting players is a VERY good thing. Coco could get EASILY get 350+ PAs and participate in 125 of the 160 games. No way I'd want to move him.
   46. Stately, Plump Buck Mulligan Posted: January 30, 2008 at 08:07 PM (#2680025)
Is Boston eating salary in your scenario? Otherwise doesn't seem fair.


I'm just not sure which way the salary thing cuts. Is there really any team (besides maybe Florida) that can't afford Crisp?

2008: 4.75M
2009: 5.75M
2010: 8M (or 500K buyout)

Two years at 11M or three years at 18.5M doesn't exactly break the bank, and I'm sure the White Sox would be happy to eat that very reasonable salary. Do the Red Sox really need salary relief?

Perhaps the White Sox would be willing to pay Crisp's entire salary and give up somebody like Haeger, who might benefit from having Wakefield and Mirabelli around. But I'm reluctant to make specific suggestions, as that always seems to turn into "Team X fans are crazy if you think you can get player Y for THAT!" (on both sides)
   47. ellsbury my heart at wounded knee Posted: January 30, 2008 at 08:11 PM (#2680031)
I don't know why this would be true, but I kind of believe it anyway: Coco Crisp may have an offensive resurgence, but only if he plays for another team - with the Red Sox, it won't happen even if he plays.

I believe this 100%. It's irrational, but I believe if Crisp is traded, he will immediately revert to his Cleveland hitting form, and if he stays with the Red Sox, he'll be the same hitter he's been for the last 2 years. There is no doubt in my mind that this is what will happen.
   48. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: January 30, 2008 at 08:12 PM (#2680032)
The Sox have enough injury potential, alogn with R/L matchups, and need for def subs and pinch runners, that keeping an extra guy that can spell 5 of the 8 starting players is a VERY good thing. Coco could get EASILY get 350+ PAs and participate in 125 of the 160 games. No way I'd want to move him.
5 of the 8? The Red Sox should have a 1B/LF bat on the bench who would step in if a hitter (Youks/Manny/Papi) went down. Coco would be there for Ellsbury and Drew.
   49. AROM Posted: January 30, 2008 at 08:18 PM (#2680041)
I would hate to see Quentin with the Red Sox because I think he's got a good chance of being a solid player IF he gets to play. Not just be JD Drew's caddy.

I'd hate to see him get Wily Mo'd.
   50. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: January 30, 2008 at 08:19 PM (#2680043)
At risk of getting nominated for Understatement of the Year, it might be a good idea to have somebody to step in for J.D. Drew. You know, just in case God forbid anything would happen to him.
   51. ellsbury my heart at wounded knee Posted: January 30, 2008 at 08:32 PM (#2680051)
If rumors about the Red Sox going after Brad Wilkerson are true, then that could take care of the 1B/LF/RF backup position if/when Drew pulls a hammy, Youks takes a pitch in the ear, and Manny gets bored and starts chasing butterflies around the outfield. Of course, that would be adding one more LH bat to an increasingly LH lineup. They might be able to get some use out of Chris Carter at 1B and maybe LF too, if, you know, he can actually play the position.
   52. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: January 30, 2008 at 08:32 PM (#2680052)
I would think the Cubs are an obvious destination for Crisp. The team wants non left handed hitting CF insurance. If Boston wants a bat for the bench then Murton would be more desireable in that role. In fact, I am predicting this trade right now.
   53. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 30, 2008 at 08:40 PM (#2680060)
Two years at 11M or three years at 18.5M doesn't exactly break the bank, and I'm sure the White Sox would be happy to eat that very reasonable salary. Do the Red Sox really need salary relief?

I think very few non-contenders have any interest in pay ~$6M per for a poor hit, good/great glove CF.

I don't think the Sox need salary relief, but I also don't think they're getting much talent for Crisp.

If they insist on trading him, the only benefit will liekly be salary relief.
   54. Valentine Posted: January 30, 2008 at 08:41 PM (#2680062)
5 of the 8? The Red Sox should have a 1B/LF bat on the bench who would step in if a hitter (Youks/Manny/Papi) went down.

If the Red Sox keep Crisp, they are going to have to be creative to find him playing time. That means going with an outfield alignment of Ellsbury/Crisp/Drew when Manny needs a day off. It also means giving Manny some time at DH, perhaps with Ortiz at first base for an occasional game.

While Chris Carter is a better hitter than Coco Crisp (we hope), the defensive gain in the outfield should more than make up that gap.
   55. Valentine Posted: January 30, 2008 at 08:42 PM (#2680064)
Manny gets bored and starts chasing butterflies around the outfield

If we start finding daisy chains around his bell, I'm outta here!
   56. Textbook Editor Posted: January 30, 2008 at 09:04 PM (#2680089)
I realize the Phillies have a pretty barren farm system, but Crisp is almost exactly the kind of guy they needed (and maybe still need, if the moaning/wailing/gnashing of teeth regarding the OF situation on local sports radio is to be believed). The only piece I might conceivably want is Carlos Ruiz (and that's not much of a return), but the Phillies probably would never have traded Ruiz in a deal for Crisp, and now that you've re-signed Mirabelli there's no place for him anyway.

I do wonder if the Phillies ever kicked the tires on a Crisp trade, though. CBP seems like a good place for him to revive his bat...
   57. Mike Webber Posted: January 30, 2008 at 09:07 PM (#2680094)
If rumors about the Red Sox going after Brad Wilkerson are true,


I thought the latest was he is headed to Seattle.
Though apparently nothing is done with him either way apparently.
   58. Cris E Posted: January 30, 2008 at 09:10 PM (#2680100)
MIN should trade Gomez plus some of their pitchers for Ellsbury. BOS can let Gomez ripen at Pawtucket while Crisp is under contract and then bring him up when he's ready. MN gets a CF, BOS unloads a duplicate resource at the top of his value, MN ends up more or less trading Santana for Ellsbury and young pitchers, BOS isn't paying or facing Santana and they can ready a set of pitchers for when the old dudes start going away in the next couple years.

edit: Maybe CF + 2 or 3 P = Ellsbury?
   59. Stately, Plump Buck Mulligan Posted: January 30, 2008 at 09:10 PM (#2680102)
I would think the Cubs are an obvious destination for Crisp. The team wants non left handed hitting CF insurance. If Boston wants a bat for the bench then Murton would be more desireable in that role. In fact, I am predicting this trade right now.


I would assume that the Red Sox would jump at Murton for Crisp -- it's certainly better than they are going to get from the White Sox.
   60. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: January 30, 2008 at 09:17 PM (#2680116)
I would assume that the Red Sox would jump at Murton for Crisp

I would have assumed the Rangers would jump at Murton for Marlon Byrd but they turned it down.
   61. Valentine Posted: January 30, 2008 at 09:25 PM (#2680131)
Does Gomez truly have a brighter future than Ellsbury? They seem to be somewhat similar players, except that Ellsbury is already what Gomez hopes to become.

Maybe if the Twins want to offer up Delmon Young?
   62. ellsbury my heart at wounded knee Posted: January 30, 2008 at 09:30 PM (#2680139)
While Chris Carter is a better hitter than Coco Crisp (we hope), the defensive gain in the outfield should more than make up that gap.

Yeah, I think of Carter as more of a safety option for a last guy off the bench if Crisp is traded. I seriously doubt he'll be on the opening day roster, but he's not a bad guy to have stashed in AAA.
   63. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: January 30, 2008 at 09:30 PM (#2680141)
Gomez has a lot more power potential - not that he's a better overall prospect or anything.
   64. Danny Posted: January 30, 2008 at 09:54 PM (#2680165)
Crisp isn't as bad a hitter for his position as Adam Everett, but he's also not as accomplished defensively. I think the market for Everett this offseason is instructive of what the market might be for Crisp.
   65. Darren Posted: January 31, 2008 at 01:43 AM (#2680375)
There seems to be a lot of pessimism from Sox fans and others as well that about the Red Sox ever getting any value in any transaction. The Red Sox offer for Santana was considered laughably low or at least not very serious, despite constant rumors that they were in the lead, and the Mets ended up giving up less. The Sox were dreaming if they thought they'd get Lowell on a 3-year deal, and even if they did, it'd be for 15+/year. Etc., etc.

Now we have Crisp who is 27, projects to be average, and whom we also have reason to believe may be better (his 06 injury and his strong 2nd half in 07). And he's signed to a flexible, inexpensive deal. Teams who need a CF are going to want him. They are going to be willing to give up value for him because they know that he has been a good to great defender for most of his career, including his most recent season.

I love Murton and I've wanted him back since the Sox lost him, but trading Coco for him would pretty much only save money. Plus I think the Cubs would let Murton go for less.

I wouldn't mind seeing Ellsbury dealt instead, as his value is likely a bit inflated right now. If you could snag a Clement or Salty for him, you'd have to consider it. I'd also look into Votto, as it doesn't seem like they're sold on him as starting material in Cincy.
   66. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 31, 2008 at 01:47 AM (#2680379)
Now we have Crisp who is 27, projects to be average,

That's assuming excellent CF defense, and I don't think many teams are going to be willing to assume that.

Dial has him as +9 runs on D in 2007, and -8 in 2006. UZR has him +13 in 2007, -14 in 2006. That's his career in CF

I don't think anyone has enough confidence in one-year defensive stats to treat him as anything but an average CF, and a below average player.

They could be wrong, but, if he's below average defensively, he's a pretty terrible player.
   67. scotto Posted: January 31, 2008 at 01:52 AM (#2680382)
I would think the Cubs are an obvious destination for Crisp. The team wants non left handed hitting CF insurance. If Boston wants a bat for the bench then Murton would be more desireable in that role. In fact, I am predicting this trade right now.

Pops Pops Two-Time, as you mentioned this in the Lounge as well.
   68. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: January 31, 2008 at 01:56 AM (#2680386)

Pops Pops Two-Time, as you mentioned this in the Lounge as well.


I wanted to poll Boston fans as to whether this would be outlandish.
   69. Darren Posted: January 31, 2008 at 02:03 AM (#2680390)
Dial has him as +9 runs on D in 2007, and -8 in 2006. UZR has him +13 in 2007, -14 in 2006. That's his career in CF


You're throwing out his LF defense in 05, which was excellent. In fact, IIRC, he was an excellent defender during all of his time with Cleveland and 06 is the only year he wasn't very good.
   70. Darren Posted: January 31, 2008 at 02:15 AM (#2680399)
I understand that Murton's defense isn't well thought of--do the numbers back that up? If he's a decent corner OF, his .289 .360 .465 ZIPS line looks very, very nice. Still, though the Red Sox would be trading a underutilized OF for another OF that they would underutilize. It'd boil down to cost savings and team chemistry at that point.

Damn, I'd like to have Murton back!
   71. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: January 31, 2008 at 02:17 AM (#2680403)
I don't know the numbers offhand but I would guess he's something like -5 on defense. ZiPS projects him to be an average hitting left fielder (almost on the nose) so he makes for a very strong bench player.
   72. Darren Posted: January 31, 2008 at 02:23 AM (#2680406)
Pops,

Are you a Cubs fan? How do you think Cubs fans would react to a deal centered around Murton/Crisp? How would Hendry feel?
   73. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 31, 2008 at 02:26 AM (#2680408)
You're throwing out his LF defense in 05, which was excellent. In fact, IIRC, he was an excellent defender during all of his time with Cleveland and 06 is the only year he wasn't very good.

OK, but then we have to regress his LF #'s to CF. It's hard to try and get any precision given the uncertainty remaining around defensive stats, especially with a small sample.

I could believe he's anywhere from -5 to +10 runs on defense, but when that range is the difference between a poor and an average player, the uncertainty is a killer.
   74. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: January 31, 2008 at 02:34 AM (#2680412)
Are you a Cubs fan? How do you think Cubs fans would react to a deal centered around Murton/Crisp? How would Hendry feel?

I don't think there would be strong feelings from Chicago fans. The team has been blocking Murton one way or another for quite some time now. Hendry wants to trade him but I think the only way Crisp is a part of that would be if Pie is moved in a different deal. Bedard is still in play and the Cubs are rumored to have tried to move Murton for a CF once already so I don't think it's an unlikely scenario which finds Pie elsewhere in 2008.

EDIT: Yes, I'm a Cubs fan
   75. Darren Posted: January 31, 2008 at 02:41 AM (#2680416)
Crisp's 05 was off the charts good in LF and would translate to excellent in CF. My conclusion from looking at his performance over the years is that he's top flight defender who struggled to adjust to a new environment and dealt with an injury in 06. YMMV, of course.

Pops, any truth to what I read on SOSH that Murton had been offered straight up for Marlon Byrd but Daniels rejected it? Is that the rumor you're speaking of above?

The more I look at Murton the more I want the Sox to try to get him somehow. He really just needs a chance (cue Wily Mo jokes.... now!)
   76. Darren Posted: January 31, 2008 at 02:46 AM (#2680423)
FWIW, he's what Nate Silver said in his recent chat:

Nate Silver: This is getting a bit semantic, but I wonder whether Crisp was really a better player in 2005 than he is today or he just had a career year. With that said, we do show him with a mild breakout, at .278/.338/.407. Given his defense in center field, there are at least 20 teams in major league baseball that would be vastly improved by that performance.


Weird that he would single out 05 and not mention that 04 was similarly excellent. I like the offensive projection though and it's funny that "at least 20 teams" dovetails so nicely with the "10 better CFs" discussion above.
   77. dave h Posted: January 31, 2008 at 02:46 AM (#2680424)
Last 3 years, Manny has averaged 137 games in the field, JD Drew 117 (2005 he played ~1/2 a year). Hopefully Drew plays more, but Manny could sit or DH more (especially if Ortiz is out any). Right there you have 232 games for Ellsbury and Crisp. The best case scenario is to convince Crisp to be satisfied starting 100 games, with pinch-running and defensive work on top. If he rebuilds some trade value (and Ellsbury looks as good as hoped) you move him during the season. Unfortunately the Sox have a bad track record with time shares. If we were trading robots though, I'd definitely want to keep Crisp given what his perceived value (and therefore what we'd get for him) is. The ballsy fantasy baseball move is definitely to trade Ellsbury for something exceptional - not to trade Crisp when you probably have a higher opinion of him than anyone else.
   78. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: January 31, 2008 at 02:48 AM (#2680425)
Crisp's 05 was off the charts good in LF and would translate to excellent in CF.

I believe MGL uses a 6 run adjustment from LF to CF.


Pops, any truth to what I read on SOSH that Murton had been offered straight up for Marlon Byrd but Daniels rejected it? Is that the rumor you're speaking of above?


I don't live in Chicago so I'm not familiar with the local buzz. I can say that Trib columnist Fred Mitchell mentioned the rumor but in a passing way. I think it's plausible because it happened during the time Paul Sullivan (who is well connected with the team) reported that the Bedard deal was under discussion. The Byrd deal is what I was talking about.
   79. Darren Posted: January 31, 2008 at 02:50 AM (#2680427)
The problem with promising Coco 100 games is that he witnessed firsthand how those plans worked out for Wily Mo. Francona (or someone) just isn't very good at those sort of arrangements (see also Youk 05, Payton 05, etc).
   80. Darren Posted: January 31, 2008 at 04:14 AM (#2680467)
What about Donaldson? Is he a decent catcher? Is he available with Soto blocking him?
   81. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: January 31, 2008 at 04:25 AM (#2680475)
Donaldson is an interesting prospect and I don't know much about him. He is probably tradeable because of Soto and organizational depth at his position.

FWIW, Emeigh said he would rather have Donaldson than Soto.
   82. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: January 31, 2008 at 02:26 PM (#2680630)
The problem with promising Coco 100 games is that he witnessed firsthand how those plans worked out for Wily Mo. Francona (or someone) just isn't very good at those sort of arrangements (see also Youk 05, Payton 05, etc).
This is a good point. The last successful job-sharing arrangement run by the Boston Red Sox was in 2003, when Grady juggled four and five players into the 1B/3B/DH spots. We may have uncovered one thing that Grady could do and Francona can't.
   83. johnsilver52 Posted: January 31, 2008 at 06:33 PM (#2680833)
Andy Phillips would have been a nice grab. He only ended up with a minor league contract I believe and would have provided a nice LH bat off the bench with + power and able to spell Youk at 1st base.
   84. Dave Cyprian Posted: January 31, 2008 at 09:58 PM (#2681065)
Well, Coco might remember what happened to Wily Mo, but there is the little fact that he is being paid millions of dollars to play baseball for the Red Sox. And baseball is the type of sport where if you pout and hit .220 during the early part of the year, you don't often get traded to a better situation by mid-summer. In other words, if the Sox decide they want Coco to play for them this year as the 4th outfielder, that is pretty much what he is going to do.

EDIT: Ok, I recognize the irony in that "pout and hit .220" is roughly what Wily Mo did, and "get traded to a better situation" is what happened to him. But my point still stands.
   85. villageidiom Posted: January 31, 2008 at 10:32 PM (#2681117)
If Boston wants a bat for the bench then Murton would be more desireable in that role. In fact, I am predicting this trade right now.


The final tally would be:

Nomar / Renteria / Shoppach / HRamirez / ASanchez / HGarcia / JDelgado
for
Bladergroen / Mirabelli / Lopez / a few rentals / Lowell / Beckett / 2 rings

The shortstop-to-ring ratio is a bit high, but otherwise a good 8-way trade.
   86. Mushroy Posted: February 01, 2008 at 02:33 PM (#2681478)
I have to agree with Darren that Crisp's overall defensive track record should be enough to make him a valuable commodity. Hopefully there are a few teams out there who are intrigued by the possibility of his hitting rebounding, too. I really hope they don't give him up for garbage.

One huge difference between Crisp's situation and Wily Mo's is defense. Really the only justification Francona ever had for putting Pena in was to rest a starter. He might be willing to make a habit of consistently bringing Crisp in based on the score. And if I'm not mistaken, Ellsbury can play RF, which means Crisp can come in for either corner and the D would improve. (Well, maybe.)
I'm not at all convinced it would be a good idea to hold onto Crisp, but I think it's better than trading someone who appears to be in the top half in the majors amongst starting CF for even a solid bat off the bench like Murton.
   87. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: February 01, 2008 at 02:45 PM (#2681485)
EDIT: Ok, I recognize the irony in that "pout and hit .220" is roughly what Wily Mo did, and "get traded to a better situation" is what happened to him. But my point still stands.
It's also basically what Jay Payton did. In fact, if anything, the Red Sox have made it pretty clear that if you suck & sulk, you'll be gone, probably to greener pastures.

Obviously there's some merit in that position, but it also has the downside that Crisp can look at the examples of Payton and Pena the last two years and figure he can go down the exact same path.
   88. Darren Posted: February 02, 2008 at 02:37 AM (#2682061)
Did Wily Mo pout? It seems like he was a good soldier for most of his time with the team. I can only remember him complaining once. Nothing compared to Payton. God, they mangled that situation.

And get Murton dammit!
   89. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: February 02, 2008 at 05:53 PM (#2682262)
Not big on Sean Casey, much rather see Bobby Kielty.
   90. tfbg9 Posted: February 02, 2008 at 05:54 PM (#2682263)
Payton mangled his own situation.
   91. Valentine Posted: February 02, 2008 at 10:57 PM (#2682390)
Casey replaces Hinske, not Kielty. Kielty's job likely depends on a Crisp trade.
   92. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: February 02, 2008 at 11:32 PM (#2682400)
Wily Mo wasn't a sulker. He deserved to be freed.

I don't really hate this signing. If he blows as a bench player, we can just DFA him and play Brandon Moss
   93. Vrhovnik Posted: February 02, 2008 at 11:52 PM (#2682405)
Is Miguel related to Mehmet Pasha Sokolovic?
   94. tfbg9 Posted: February 04, 2008 at 04:30 AM (#2683008)
Hey GGC-we just won the Super Bowl! (you too McNally!)
   95. Darren Posted: February 04, 2008 at 04:38 AM (#2683010)
Yeah, Payton mangled his way into everything that he wanted.
   96. 1k5v3L Posted: February 04, 2008 at 04:59 AM (#2683014)
Coco for Eli Manning?
   97. Dan Posted: February 04, 2008 at 05:12 AM (#2683019)
Can he throw a curveball? Or hit one?
   98. 1k5v3L Posted: February 04, 2008 at 05:13 AM (#2683022)
Can he throw a curveball? Or hit one?
Who cares? Count the ring.
   99. Famous Original Joe C Posted: February 04, 2008 at 05:43 AM (#2683038)
Hey GGC-we just won the Super Bowl! (you too McNally!)

Wow, what position do you play? Or do you work in the offices?
   100. chris p Posted: February 04, 2008 at 05:46 AM (#2683039)
Hey GGC-we just won the Super Bowl! (you too McNally!)

mcnally's a giants fan? i woulda figured he'd root for the 49ers or the raiders. or maybe the steelers?
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