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   1. baudib Posted: June 28, 2007 at 10:58 PM (#2421599)
It's the curse of Orlando Cabrera.
   2. villageidiom Posted: June 28, 2007 at 11:52 PM (#2421642)
Yeah, Lugo is done. Just like that Renteria guy.

Seriously, I don't know what to say. Lugo has typically been a slow starter the last few years, but not this slow. IMO Lugo has been a bigger disappointment than Renteria ever was, but we sold low on Renteria after one year. I don't like selling low, but I also don't like keeping crap, either.
   3. NTNgod Posted: June 28, 2007 at 11:59 PM (#2421643)
Is it time for Lugo to go?

With over 3/30 left, go where?

If they try another Renteria trade - at this rate, the Red Sox will be paying more money to other teams for their shortstops, than most teams pay for their own starting SS.
   4. zfan Posted: June 29, 2007 at 12:09 AM (#2421647)
Jim Hendry says: I'll give you Izturis, Jones, and Eyre for Lugo and Piniero. Deal?
   5. Darren Posted: June 29, 2007 at 12:53 AM (#2421690)
With over 3/30 left, go where?


Lugo togo. It sorta rhymes.
   6. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: June 29, 2007 at 01:09 AM (#2421699)
I want to chokeabitch right now.
   7. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: June 29, 2007 at 01:12 AM (#2421701)
It was, in my mind, a reasonable signing that has not paid off at all so far.


I didn't even know why we signed that guy to tell you the truth. He simply wasn't that good. Wasn't there any RHB cheap defensive wizard we coudl have platooned with Cora at SS?
   8. Darren Posted: June 29, 2007 at 02:21 AM (#2421735)
Look at the numbers in my intro. He was that good. He was a safe bet for 4.5 WARP/season.

They could have gone cheaper and platooned with Cora, but Cora actually hits lefties better.
   9. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: June 29, 2007 at 02:25 AM (#2421740)
I didn't want the guy because he costed a 1st round pick, was a suspected wife beater, and was probably end up going to be Renteria II. Little did I know he'd obliterate that standard of suck.
   10. Textbook Editor Posted: June 29, 2007 at 02:35 AM (#2421748)
The problem now is you can't bench him because at this point to trade him you almost have to see him improve a little or esle you're eating the whole rest of the contract to move him. So you stick him in the 9 hole, I guess and trot him out there 5 days out of 7 and give Cora the other 2 games just to give you a fighting chance at replacement-level production 2 days out of 7.

There really aren't any options here. A DL stint just delays the inevitable, and the inevitable is they need him to not suck for about 2-3 weeks to have any hope of brokering a deal where they don't pay full frieght.

Edgar I and Edgar II are really good examples of why you need to be a $150 million dollar development machine, because otherise you wind up sinking $60 million into 2 shortstops who can't play. Ugh. What a fiasco this Curse of Cabrera is...
   11. Darren Posted: June 29, 2007 at 02:49 AM (#2421760)
But Edgar I could play. He just had a bad year. Edgar II probably can play too--even though that seems impossible for me to believe right now--but we'll need to ride out his bad times. Dammit, none of this ever would have happened if we dealt Nomar and signed Tejada when we had the chance!
   12. Jason Robar Posted: June 29, 2007 at 04:23 AM (#2421816)
Look at the numbers in my intro. He was that good.

His line by age:

24-283/346/431
25-263/326/372
26-261/322/388
27-271/333/410
28-275/338/396
29-295/362/403
30-278/341/421

Looking at his stat lines for each year, it was fair to say that the Red Sox were getting a 270/330/400 hitter. That's what Renteria gave them in 2005, and that wasn't good enough. What lead Theo et al to believe that Lugo was a better buy?
   13. JB H Posted: June 29, 2007 at 04:27 AM (#2421823)
Lugo is like, 30 runs a year better than Renteria on defense
   14. PerroX Posted: June 29, 2007 at 04:29 AM (#2421825)
Hanley Ramirez.
   15. Dan Posted: June 29, 2007 at 06:39 AM (#2421865)
Even if Hanley were on this team, we'd all be ######## about his defense and talking about moving him to CF or 3B or something.
   16. Dan Posted: June 29, 2007 at 06:39 AM (#2421866)
(Still leaving the Sox with the hole at SS)
   17. Bhaakon Posted: June 29, 2007 at 09:10 AM (#2421886)
With over 3/30 left, go where?

If they try another Renteria trade - at this rate, the Red Sox will be paying more money to other teams for their shortstops, than most teams pay for their own starting SS.


San Francisco.

Vizquel is having a terrible year and he's a FA, Feliz's contract will also be up. There isn't a really great internal option to take over at either position next year. The Giants have enough money to absorb all of the contract (though I'm sure they'll ask for Boston to cover, at the least, the remainder of this season's salary), and at 31 Lugo is just nearly old enough to tickle Sabean's veteran fetish.
   18. Dave Cyprian Posted: June 29, 2007 at 01:05 PM (#2421950)
Thanks for the thread Darren.

I don't like the idea of eating Lugo's contract in an vacuum, and when you add up what we are paying ATL for Renteria, yes, obviously the team hasn't "dealt" (pun intended) with the SS position very well since '04.

But... I think the Sox have a great window, not just this year but in '08 as well, to be the best team in baseball and make a serious WS run. Lugo has been awful for basically an entire calendar year at this point. Nothing personal, but eating the contract in return for slightly above replacement production just makes sense to me. Our young cheap pitching is coming along, that should free up the payroll significantly going forward -- and SS is clearly our #1 problem today.
   19. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: June 29, 2007 at 01:08 PM (#2421952)
Yeah, something happened to Edgar a couple years ago that just killed his defense. I don't know what it is, but he's added significant bulk recently - that's probably a part of it. The Red Sox managed to get the year where he couldn't field and hadn't leveraged his size into better hitting. (All the reports were of how unhappy he was in Boston, but that's surely not only a cause but also an effect of his sucking.)

The problem for the Red Sox is that Alex Cora is not a solution. He's not as good a fielder, and is he really much better of a hitter? I figure that, like with the Pedroia situation, Cora will take an extra start or two a week against RHP until Lugo starts to hit a little. The only internal option is Jed Lowrie, and there are more than enough questions about his glove that I wouldn't fault the Red Sox for holding off.
   20. plim Posted: June 29, 2007 at 01:26 PM (#2421975)
lugo is making edgar renteria look like alex rodriguez...

he has an ops+ of 42. there are pitchers in the NL with a higher ops+. i mean, jed lowrie could put up a 42 today =P of course, i'm not advocating bring him up just yet, but seriously...

i never understood the facination with lugo, let alone to the tune of 4/36.

for all the good moves theo makes, he certainly makes his fair share of boneheaded ones.
   21. Golfing Great Mitch Cumstein Posted: June 29, 2007 at 02:08 PM (#2422008)
Peter Gammons on ESPN Boston mentioned that Lugo has not put back the weight he lost in spring training as a partial excuse for his performance. I recall thatI haven't heard that theory tossed around before. He also mentioned Lowrie is destined for 2B. Is that the consensus?
   22. Dave Cyprian Posted: June 29, 2007 at 02:24 PM (#2422026)
The Globe today:

Julio Lugo's epic slump shows no signs of abating. It's 0 for 31 and counting, he's batting a major league-low .190, and he told the Globe's Amalie Benjamin he can't sleep at night.

"I don't sleep, either," he said. "I don't see anyone worried about me."

Someone asked Francona if he'd ever experienced a similar slump. "Yeah," he cracked, "from 1981 to 1990."

The Sox are far from making a permanent place on the bench for Lugo, who is signed for another three seasons, but just as when Pedroia was struggling, Alex Cora will play more until (if?) Lugo gets on track.
   23. chris p Posted: June 29, 2007 at 02:25 PM (#2422027)
He also mentioned Lowrie is destined for 2B. Is that the consensus?

that's the question. most people think he's destined for 2b, i think, but if he can manage to keep sticking at short, then he's a good prospect.
   24. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: June 29, 2007 at 02:34 PM (#2422041)
The Sox also have a particular interest in keeping Lowrie at SS - he doesn't appear to have a future at 2B for the Sox, so he's either going to stick at SS, get traded, or become a utility player. His trade value is higher as a SS, and there's no need to start training a 23-year-old with his bat to be a utility player. BA '07 was quite emphatic that he wouldn't stick at SS - he lacks the quickness and speed of a SS, they said.

According to BA, Lowrie's arm is good enough for SS, so I guess it's not totally insane to imagine him moving to his right rather than his left, but he'll need to keep up this level of hitting for a little while to be respected as a possible 3B.

Either way, I think that the Sox just don't really have any plausible options at SS. They could go the full Cyprian route and just give up on a guy they liked enough several months ago to invest $36M in, but they'd still need to trade for a SS, which would most likely cost one of the top prospects. I think any solution that requires the Red Sox to make a deadline deal is no solution at all - it just sloughs the problem off until the next day. As such, I don't see any solution other than mixing and matching Lugo and Cora, hoping that Lugo finds himself.
   25. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: June 29, 2007 at 02:52 PM (#2422056)
FWIW, I have Lowrie's MLE at 269/365/413. He's having a very nice little year up in Portland.
   26. tfbg9 Posted: June 29, 2007 at 02:53 PM (#2422057)
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=565&position=SS

One thing in particular sticks out like a sore thumb, in regard to his 2007 "fancy" stats line. Anybody want to guess what it is? Because if you normalize it, there's the whole problem, more or less, with Julio Lugo, 2007.
   27. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: June 29, 2007 at 03:51 PM (#2422131)
Why did Pokey Retire? Even Pokey could hit better than this.
   28. Kevin Sweet Child Romine (aco) Posted: June 29, 2007 at 03:54 PM (#2422138)
Anybody want to guess what it is?

I guessed BABIP, and was right. Then I checked and saw that he has the lowest BABIP in the majors (.209); but, there are a couple of other figures on that Fangraphs page that caught my eye. Lugo is hitting fewer line drives and more ground balls than in any previous season. These facts go part of the way in explaining his low BABIP and lead me to think that he's just not making the same kind of solid contact that he has in the past.

I hadn't heard about his ST weight loss (was he ill?), but if he's lost strength, that might explain his struggles with hitting the ball hard.

As for the question posed in the intro: no, it isn't time for him to go. The Sox are in first place with Lugo stinking and he's stunk so bad that one would think that he could only improve. He's untradable, the Sox have no real in-house replacements and anyone they would trade for would be a marginal and short-term improvement.
   29. Fridas Boss Posted: June 29, 2007 at 03:55 PM (#2422141)
27. tfbg9 Posted: June 29, 2007 at 10:53 AM (#2422057)
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=565&position=SS

One thing in particular sticks out like a sore thumb, in regard to his 2007 "fancy" stats line. Anybody want to guess what it is? Because if you normalize it, there's the whole problem, more or less, with Julio Lugo, 2007.


Ooh ooh, I know, BABIP! Though, how much of that is variance and how much is that his LD% is down? He's swinging and missing a ton and hitting GBs at a higher rate when he does make contact.
   30. Fridas Boss Posted: June 29, 2007 at 03:56 PM (#2422144)
I owe the sweet child a Coke.
   31. Chip Posted: June 29, 2007 at 04:18 PM (#2422173)
His FB rate has increased recently - he's still making outs, but it's no longer 127 ground balls in a row to SS. Now he's tossing in more lazy flies to right, giving him a better chance to have his BABIP luck begin to reverse. His G/F ratio in April was 1.90; in May 1.53; in June 1.23.
   32. tfbg9 Posted: June 29, 2007 at 06:49 PM (#2422453)
I'd say the crazy-low BABIP is partly his fault, maybe mostly his doing, but still, I mean...c'mon...it's .209??? Wow.
   33. dave h Posted: June 30, 2007 at 03:14 PM (#2423779)
Yup tfbg9 I'd say that's dead on. The drop in LD% is alarming and a good reason for the BABIP, but you'd think some ground balls would find holes.
   34. dave h Posted: June 30, 2007 at 03:18 PM (#2423782)
Oh, and I doubt they expected a 270/330/400 hitter; the projection systems all had him about 290/350/415.
   35. PJ Martinez Posted: June 30, 2007 at 03:26 PM (#2423785)
Those who visit Game Chatters know that the inability of groundballs hit by Lugo to get by defenders has been one of the less pleasant leitmotifs of this season.

He'd be having a bad year even with better luck, but it wouldn't be mind-numbingly awful. Also, some of that bad luck may have gotten into his head a bit, causing him to press, etc.

There's not much the Sox can do about it, except play Cora some more and hope Lugo snaps out of it. His defense has been decent, at least, save for a few mental lapses leading to errors.
   36. PerroX Posted: June 30, 2007 at 03:34 PM (#2423787)
I like to pick on both the Lugo and Drew signings -- both were ridiculous in both length and money -- but Lugo's was particularly bad. It was a much, much worse signing than Renteria's, and that should have been obvious before he's sucked sucked horribly this season (a .310 OPS for June - how is that possible?)

You can justify both contracts by saying the Sox are playing to win NOW before Ortiz, Ramirez, Varitek, etc. decline significantly, but it's not going to be pretty when they do and you're saddled with Drew and Lugo who'll be even worse.

The Sox can eat that money, but it will hurt them somewhere down the line when they go to make a more legit big-money signing.

The bigger question is -- do Epstein and Co. know what a legit signing is?
   37. PJ Martinez Posted: June 30, 2007 at 03:46 PM (#2423791)
"The bigger question is -- do Epstein and Co. know what a legit signing is?"

This is a weird question to ask of a team with the best record in the majors.

When you include the posting fee, Matsuzaka is the biggest deal the Epstein FO has shelled out, and it looks good. Of the mid-range signings, Varitek's deal has actually been ok, I think, and Beckett's extension is looking brilliant.

It's quite possible the big mistake with Renteria was to give up so quickly (though Coco's rebound may make even that move look sort of okay, or at least not a total disaster).

It seems a tad early to judge the Drew signing. He's put up a .935 OPS in June, which is nearer his career numbers than the .768 he put up in April and the .552 in May.

The Sox seem to have made the right decisions on both Pedro and Damon, so they appear to have recognized what might not be "legit" signings (I'm not really sure what that term means), at least in two high-profile cases.
   38. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: June 30, 2007 at 03:53 PM (#2423793)
The bigger question is -- do Epstein and Co. know what a legit signing is?"

Keith Foulke.
   39. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: June 30, 2007 at 03:58 PM (#2423794)
btw, the biggest fish I'd like to go after in next year's FA market; Joe Nathan.
The guy has a great track record, has been healthy for a while, has sustained a reasonable work load (70IP a year for the last 4 years), and has ridiculous peripherals.

I'd give him Keith Foulke money.

Man, imagine the bullpen next year if we got him: Papelbon, Nathan, a not as good Okajima, Delcarmen, and whatever good reliever we traded for thsi deadline. Add a Breslow/Snyder/Another FA find from Japan, it would be the best Red Sox bullpen to be ever assembled.
   40. Mike Emeigh Posted: June 30, 2007 at 04:11 PM (#2423797)
Nathan's not going anywhere where he won't close, and I can't imagine that Boston will move Papelbon out of the closer position while keeping him in the bullpen.

-- MWE
   41. The Original SJ Posted: June 30, 2007 at 04:21 PM (#2423802)
I'd give him Keith Foulke money.

Heh, what is that, 2/17? Nathan is going to get 4/48.
   42. John DiFool2 Posted: June 30, 2007 at 04:25 PM (#2423805)
Where is Foulke anyway? Did he retire? His 7/36 W/K ratio last year would appear to show that he still had something in the tank.
   43. Famous Original Joe C Posted: June 30, 2007 at 04:28 PM (#2423806)
Where is Foulke anyway? Did he retire? His 7/36 W/K ratio last year would appear to show that he still had something in the tank.

He retired in the spring after signing with Cleveland.
   44. tfbg9 Posted: June 30, 2007 at 04:41 PM (#2423819)
He retired in the spring after signing with Cleveland.


/sniff-sniff
   45. Chip Posted: June 30, 2007 at 05:09 PM (#2423827)
There was loose talk recently about Foulke considering a comeback.
   46. tfbg9 Posted: June 30, 2007 at 05:13 PM (#2423832)
There was loose talk recently about Foulke considering a comeback.



/head jerks upward

A-roo???
   47. Chip Posted: June 30, 2007 at 06:03 PM (#2423874)
Here is where I remember it from - one of Cafardo's notes columns last month in the Globe:


Fragment of information on comeback
Keith Foulke's retirement might be short-lived. According to his agent, Dan Horwits, Foulke is thinking about having bone fragments removed from his elbow, a sign that he is at least contemplating a return. "Right now, he's really enjoying his time away from the game and just spending time with his family," Horwits said. "I think he will evaluate whether he wants to get back in at some point. I don't think he's quite ready to do that yet, but he'll explore getting his elbow straightened out and then see where he is."
   48. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: July 01, 2007 at 02:29 AM (#2424943)
Yes, it is time for Lugo to go.
   49. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: July 01, 2007 at 02:38 AM (#2424951)
DIE LUGO DIE DIE DIE DIE DIE DIE DIE DIE DIE DIE DIE IN THE MOST HORRIBLE FASHION POSSIBLE
   50. TVerik, the gum-snappin' hairdresser Posted: July 01, 2007 at 02:40 AM (#2424952)
I'll translate; Wok just said:

The Lugo, the.
   51. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: July 01, 2007 at 02:46 AM (#2424953)
Hey, Tony Graffanino is playing part time in Milwaukee and hitting for 88 *OPS+

SUMMON HIM THEO
   52. Darren Posted: July 01, 2007 at 03:24 AM (#2424970)
If anyone can explain the attempted standing steal of third, which included a big slowdown, I'd love to hear it. Love to.

They've been saying recently that Lugo hasn't been able to sleep and that he lost 15 pounds in the offseason that he hasn't put back on. Maybe he's depressed. I'm at a loss.
   53. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: July 01, 2007 at 03:28 AM (#2424973)
You know, if Julio Lugo were a Pakistani Cricket Player, we woudl have found his body with about 3 7.62mm brain hemmorhages about 2 weeks ago.
   54. Chip Posted: July 01, 2007 at 03:28 AM (#2424974)
Trouble adjusting to the groupie volume that comes with playing for a large market team.

That would explain his play with the Dodgers, as well.
   55. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: July 01, 2007 at 03:29 AM (#2424975)
The best thing for the Red Sox might be for Lugo to take a couple weeks off and get himself together. Those stories about losing weight and not sleeping are kinda scary.

If I didn't hate Lugo with the burning fire of a thousand of Scott Proctor's jockstraps, I'd almost feel sorry for the guy. but I do, so I don't.
   56. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: July 01, 2007 at 03:40 AM (#2424979)
I think I know what happened in San Diego:

Those groupies that you saw Lugo with, it was DUSTIN that was supposed to score with them, but then Pedroia was summoned by Francona to do have some meeting, and then Lugo took his place (after Pedroia had already gotten the groupies hot and to second base).

Lugo of course, was a little too aggressive, tried to get to third base with the groupies, but Red Sox groupies, being BETTER than the other team's groupies, checked B-ref and BP for Lugo's stats, and foudn he was hitting 10 runs below replacement level, so they busted him and rejected third base with him. Then Lugo slapped the groupies and slammed their heads into a car hood.

Pedroia, after meeting with Francona, then could only schtup MCOA's wife. It was still beautiful though.
   57. Chip Posted: July 01, 2007 at 04:23 AM (#2424990)
I think of it as the "Fredo Goes to Vegas" problem.

The question is, who is the Red Sox's Moe Green? And will this Moe get a bullet in the eye for slapping Lugo-Fredo around because he's banging the cocktail waitresses two at a time, and the high rollers can't get their drinks?

[Lugo-Fredo is not to be confused with Alberto-Fredo.]
   58. Phil Coorey is a T-Shirt Salesman Posted: July 01, 2007 at 05:31 AM (#2425009)
You know, if Julio Lugo were a Pakistani Cricket Player, we woudl have found his body with about 3 7.62mm brain hemmorhages about 2 weeks ago.


Turns out Woolmer died naturally.
   59. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: July 01, 2007 at 11:03 AM (#2425052)
Turns out Woolmer died naturally.

Or the police say.

Seriously though, other than that lady that got shot for no reason by the cops in 2004, nobody has ever DIED because of the Red Sox. I vote we start with Jimmy Fallon and work our way down.
   60. Dr. Vaux Posted: July 01, 2007 at 11:08 AM (#2425053)
This is where not trusting small sample sizes can hurt a club. Lugo was this bad in 146 ABs at the end of last season, too, and he was thirty. The risk that he'd gone over the cliff was too much to pay $36 million for.
   61. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: July 01, 2007 at 01:49 PM (#2425088)
Are you seeing somebody? If not, it might be a good idea.

I wish, but I'm not exactly much of a ladies man.
   62. villageidiom Posted: July 01, 2007 at 01:55 PM (#2425090)
I imagine Lugo didn't get much sleep last night, either.

If the guy's problem was BABIP, you ride it out. If the suckiness is now affecting his state of mind, benching him for extended periods of time isn't going to help. It's the kind of thing he has to play his way out of. It's a good opportunity to get Cora some playing time, but otherwise with a 10 game lead or so they can afford to let him play his way out of it.
   63. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: July 01, 2007 at 02:11 PM (#2425094)
Can't we send his suckingass to a shrink? Yes, my mental status is not all that great, but he really has to take some of the blame.
   64. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: July 01, 2007 at 02:18 PM (#2425098)
If the suckiness is now affecting his state of mind, benching him for extended periods of time isn't going to help. It's the kind of thing he has to play his way out of.
That's certainly not a given. Lugo might need time away from the playing field to get himself back in shape, or he might be motivated by the risk of losing his job that he's able to focus better, or he might have some nicks and dings that he needs to let heal, or any number of things. It's certainly possible that Lugo's problems are the sort he needs to play out, but neither you nor I have any special knowledge of it.

My plan, as with most situations like this, is to give the benefit of the doubt to those who actually talk to Lugo and manage him, and evaluate later on. I will say that the Red Sox tried for the month of June to let Lugo play through his problems, and it only exacerbated them. Changing course makes sense enough, but we'll see if there are any fixes forthcoming - even if those fixes can be read statistically as a random return to mean performance.
   65. TVerik, the gum-snappin' hairdresser Posted: July 01, 2007 at 02:59 PM (#2425124)
Maybe if there was a "Lugo surge", we could manage both to stay the course and delay all criticism until after the season.
   66. TVerik, the gum-snappin' hairdresser Posted: July 01, 2007 at 05:21 PM (#2425188)
All right. It's July 1. What's the best season numbers turned in by someone who already has >250 ABs and is hitting under .200?
   67. tfbg9 Posted: July 01, 2007 at 05:24 PM (#2425189)
Make me a tape! Better yet, pirate me a knock-off copy!
   68. tfbg9 Posted: July 01, 2007 at 05:25 PM (#2425192)
Lugo looks like condemned man, there's a lost look in his eyes.

That said, Orsillo is worse.
   69. Roger Cedeno's Spleen Posted: July 01, 2007 at 09:13 PM (#2425824)
Lugo looks like condemned man, there's a lost look in his eyes.

That said, Orsillo is worse.


With cancer falling somewhere in the middle...
   70. Answer Guy Posted: July 01, 2007 at 11:59 PM (#2425968)
All right. It's July 1. What's the best season numbers turned in by someone who already has >250 ABs and is hitting under .200?

Is Andruw Jones still under .200?
   71. icebaseball16 Posted: July 02, 2007 at 05:13 PM (#2426394)
I agree with they should have got a RHB to platoon with Cora, because even though he is hitting lefties better as of late, he won't do it for a whole season. No one does.
   72. jordan Posted: July 02, 2007 at 06:03 PM (#2426425)
That's not true, Cora has hit better against lefties over a season many times. Look at his career splits. He is better vs. lefties over the course of his career (a large sample size) which is why I have never understood why Francona always tried to avoid playing him against lefties.

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