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If somebody in the Boston Metropolitan Area would be so kind as to tire iron his legs, that would be nice. Thanks.
Don't do it for me, do it for yourselves, and do it for Jacoby.
Is Eric Gagne going on the DL?
Here's one attempt at a postseason roster, at least for the ALDS:
INF - Youkilis, Pedroia, Lugo, Lowell, Cora, Ortiz, Hinske
C - Varitek, Cash
OF - Manny, Coco, Drew, Kielty, Ellsbury
SP - Matsusaka, Beckett, Schilling, Wakefield
RP - Lester, Papelbon, Okajima, Buchholz, Gagne, MDC, Timlin
OK, I'd go LOOGY-less, but if you wanted to swap Hinske for Lopez or make Lester the de facto LOOGY and keep Hinske I'm fine with it. HInske does give you some 1B flexibility, but with the new rule that you can DL a player and "call up" an eligible player to take his spot during the playoffs (though the "playoff DL'd" player would be forced to miss the remainder of that series AND the entire next series), I think it becomes less necessary to worry about a catastropic injury to Youkilis and then having to have Ortiz at 1B for the rest of the series.
Lester, Buchholz, and Ellsbury come in courtesy the F-Rod loophole. This would necessitate Mirabelli being left off the playoff roster so they could use all 3 DL loopholes (Clement, Donnelly & Mirabelli).
I'd also maybe start Lester in a Game 4 over Wakefield, but it all depends on which hot hand (or cold hand) you want to ride. I like the idea of starting Wakefield but having Buchholz "shadow" him and if he gets in a jam bringing Buchholz in for 3-4 innings of work to save the pen as well as give a different look.
Not even the 60 day DL to free up another spot on the 40 man?
That's a bit harsh for Gagne, but if somebody answers my call for violence, then you never know.
If the Yankees win the Wild Card, the Sox only face LAA if they (the Angels) have a worse record than Cleveland, right? Of course, it's so tight everywhere (with the Tigers only being 3 behind the Yankees and the Indians only 4 behind the Red Sox for the best record, with LAA 2) it's probably too early to discuss seeding.
I guess I don't understand why you wouldn't simply start Buchholz over Lester and make Lester the emergency Wakefield solution. Isn't Buchholz about a million times hotter than Lester? And, simply better?
Buchholz has an innings cap, hence why he's not starting now, and won't be this year.
Well, I knew about that innings cap. He's still 12 2/3rds innings away. I am among those who find the hyper-paranoia on Buchholz and Chamberlain's innings to be a bit tiresome. There is a difference between careful and intelligent, and just plain hissy-fit. And if one of them goes down now with the rules invoked, there will just be a "SEEEEEE he threw too many" when really it could be a trillion reasons.
Maybe it's a regular season innings cap. So probably 6 more 2 IP relief appearnces from Buch down the stretch, and then playoff time!
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=515
Who says it's arbitrary? And I'm not sure I buy the argument for Buc over Wake. Silver readily admits his calculations are not precise:
"The QERAs for Lester and Buchholz are primarily based on a very quick-and-dirty sort of minor league translation;"
That sounds like it introduces a lot of variability into this. And assuming that Wakefield's healthy, he's a lot more reliably decent than Buc--the young Buc is a has way more variability in any projection.
Wakefield throw the knuckleball. It's whole existence is BASED on variability.
I think Wake should start in the playoffs, but leaving Buch out of the playoff roster is an absolute joke. What is Kyle Snyder going to offer than Buch can't?
Also think there is (currently) a reasonable chance that Ellsbury gets left off. And that would be dumb.
I cannot imagine it happening. Especially with the mythology surrounding Dave Roberts.
not at all. they face laa after the red sox beat the indians and the angels beat the yankees.
c- varitek, mirabelli/cash
1b- youk, hinske, ortiz
2b- pedroia
ss- lugo
if- cora
3b- lowell
of- manny, crisp, drew, kielty, ellsbury
sp- beckett, matsuzaka, schilling, wakefield/lester
rp- papelbon, okajima, mdc, timlin, buchholz, gagne (if healthy), lopez/tavarez
another option for anaheim would be to leave off kielty b/c anaheim doesen't have any left handed relievers ... then you could carry both lopez and tavarez.
I'm not even a Red Sox fan, and this is about the most bewildering thing I've read. The kid threw a no-hitter, and now has 2 wins (one in relief) but you think he's better off not on the rostter? I don't get it.
Wait, is Hinske really more valuable than another arm?
no.
he also wasn't throwing his curveball ... but he did show his slider, which isn't a bad pitch.
My view could change between now and October. But note that I wasn't saying I *wanted* Lopez and Tavarez on the roster, just that I thought they would be. So it's really a choice between Lester and Buchholz; workload, lefty-ness, and more time in the majors led me to prefer Lester right now for this particular role in the bullpen.
I'd certainly take Buchholz over Tavarez and Lopez.
But it's only a 4 percent difference. No matter how valuable it is, it's only 4 percent, which is easily skewed by a) trying to project a young pitcher like Buc, b) trying to predict how Buc will do after pitching past the most innings he's ever pitched, c) trying to project Wakefield using QERA (not sure what that is), d) the quick and dirty nature of the calculations.
There's also the possibility that Buc's health has a value greater than $25 mil.
Lefty bat with some pop who isn't limited to backing up one position, as so many of those sorts are? That's useful.
A minor quibble on this assertion: if Hinske's offensive abilities have eroded slightly to the point where his 2007 output reflects his real current ability to help the ballclub score runs, I'm not sure how truely useful he is anymore. Small sample size and all, but Hinske's bat seems to be producing bit less damage this season... more K's with a LD% that's way down, but on the other hand he's got ISO and HR/FB%'s that are in line with his established norms, and he's BB'ing a lot more. He's 30, which further coulds the crystal ball. Hinske's looked really overmatched in a lot of AB's this year, usually when Wok tunes in apparently, but that could be a reflection of less playing time for him in general than he's used to.
I like him a lot more as the OF/1B/3B(!?) semi-stiff 110ish OPS+ guy who hits RHP pretty well rather than this year's 100ish OPS+ roll-out.
The question is whether, because of Youkilis' ability to play third, you're willing to go into the postseason with no backup corner infielder, and rely on Cora to backup Lowell and Ortiz to backup Youkilis in case either one of the corner starters got hurt during the series.
4% is a really massive difference. In March 08 the Sox will probably have like a 8-9% chance at winning the world series
Its not like if he pitches 174 innings instead of 165 that Brian Cashman's Clay Buchholz labrum voodoo doll suddenly starts working
Lefty bat with some pop who isn't limited to backing up one position, as so many of those sorts are? That's useful.
Brandon Moss backs up LF and RF, and he was working on 1B in AAA. And he doesn't suck.
another option for anaheim would be to leave off kielty b/c anaheim doesen't have any left handed relievers ... then you could carry both lopez and tavarez.
They'll start Joe Saunders, and Drew/Hinske vs. Saunders is basically civilian freighter vs. Borg Cube. Resistance is futile.
C: Tek/Cash, Doug back on the DL
1B: Youk
2B: Pedroia
SS: Lugo
IF: Cora
3B: Lowell
Note; Erik Hinske can't play 3B. I doubt he has over 10 IP at 3B all year.
OF: Manny, Coco, Nicole, Kielty, Jacoby
Extra Bat: Moss
Starters: Beckett/Matsuzaka/Curt/Timmy
Relievers: Papelbon/Okajima/Manny D/Buccholz/Lester/Gagne/Timlin/Tavarez
I use Tavarez over Lopez because then Francona won't F!@# us by using Lopez to walk Giambi
I'm not the only one then.
Buc should be in the rotation now. Make it a 6 man rotation if you have to.
He's drained mentally too. He need to take Josh Beckett lessons and destroy a watercooler.
I will say this: Daisuke has not been better because his pitch selection has been limited. He's not throwing the forkball nor the changeup with consistency, either the new mound or the new ball is giving him problems with either pitch (or Varitek won't call it, which sounds unlikely). The cutter was never that great to start with, and his 2 seamer is something he's just learning. So he's basically a fastball/slider guy. He was getting by with the fastball and slier, but once his command on the fastball abandons him, he's toast. Edit: The changeup wasn't Pedro good, but in Japan it was definitely a plus pitch, and he could get a swinging strike from left handers with that pitch. The forkball was relatively decent too, he could bury it in the dirt for an outpitch.
I think fatigue is definitely a factor for Dice-K, but just as much is his and Varitek's inability to ever get in sync this year on what he should be throwing, and when. They've yo-yo'd from one extreme, where he seemingly never challenged anyone, to the other extreme, where he's challenging too much and making bad location mistakes when he does (you couldn't have a worse miss on a fastball location than he had on the grand slam pitch to Moore tonight).
In the postgame, Eckersley noted this abandonment of everything but the fastball and the cutter/slider lately, and more or less called out Varitek in the process, noting that Dice-K rarely shakes off, so whatever he's throwing is what Varitek wants. Whereas early in the year, Varitek was like a kid with a new toy, seeming to call for every one of the pitches in every single AB, and leading people to complain that Matsuzaka wasn't throwing the fastball enough. The happy medium in the middle of the season, where they were mixing pitches well and he was lights out, didn't last.
Just like last year, when Beckett sucked because he wouldn't throw anything but fastballs. All we heard was that he was too stubborn. Well where the #### was the great leader and pitch caller Varitek to put him in his place and make him mix his pitches better? This year, Beckett's transition to doing just that appears to have had absolutely nothing to do with Varitek, based on the public comments. It's all about Beckett growing up.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=515
What methodology is used here, and most importantly, how is a sample size issue avoided? Correlation = causation?
On DiceK, I don't see the case for him wearing down. He's just now reaching his innings totals from Japan. What I see is a guy who has pretty bad command. In fact, he's had pretty bad command for much of the season. It's something mechanical or something to do with his grip on the ball. He's a good, young pitcher and he'll likely figure it out. How Boston does in the postseason largely depends on how quickly he figures it out.
Don't do it for me, do it for the children.
Beckett/Matsuzaka/Schilling/Wakefield
Papelbon/Okajima/Timlin/Delcarmen/Lopez/Lester/Buccholz
If Gagne is healthy, someone from the last five goes, but either way, 12 pitchers in a division series is crazy talk. Once you've got 14 position player slots, you're good to go.
C Mirabelli
IF Hinske, Cora
OF Ellsbury, Kielty
No way does Hinske miss the roster (unless it's for Moss, but he hasn't impressed, and his MLE is worse than Hinske's 2007). The Red Sox aren't going to start Big Papi in the field because Youkilis sprained his wrist or something.
-On Bukholts, I agree with Darren in principle that we just don't know. This is a decision that has to be personalized, and this cap is apparently what they think is best for Buc's arm. But, well, I can't help but be skeptical. There's a huge advatnage to be had here, in slotting Buc in for the playoffs, and the Red Sox are going to disregard it because those 10-20 innings increase the injury risk that much? I can't see the data or the reports, so I can't argue with them, but I have a lot of trouble accepting the logic.
There is no way Brandon Moss could stink up the joint more than Eric Hinske. At the very least Moss is the better defender and baserunner
On the other hand, the Epstein/Lucchino Red Sox have always had a, well, creative relationship with the rules of organized baseball. I tend to think that if they found themselves without a traditional method of placing Ellsbury on the playoff roster, they'd find a non-traditional method.
Yeah, my point at the start was kind of lost along the way--if you carry Mirabelli, there's only 2 F-Rod loophole slots, and you basically have 3-4 players competing for them: Lester, Buchholz, Ellsbury (and maybe Moss).
The rule now is that you do NOT have to swap-in position-for-position when it comes to the F-Rod loophole. (You do once the playoffs start, apparently, but not before.)
I'd argue that for the ALDS, there is a strong possibility they'd hold Buchholz back and go with Lester/Ellsbury, then see where they were should they get to the ALCS and then decide what they wanted to do--drop Lester, perhaps, and use Buchholz instead and stick with Ellsbury. It could be matchups play as much of a part in the decision as health.
I'm confused. Why would the F-rod loophole need to be employed to get Lester on the postseason roster?
Yes, but if Mirabelli is no longer on the DL as of season's end, is the loophole still there? Could they conceivably leave him off the postseason roster because he was unavailable on 8/31, despite being available now?
I know they won't leave him off the roster, and I don't want him left off. I'm just looking for clarification on the rule (or rather the loophole within the rule).
The Red Sox only have two players who are eligible for the postseason roster and on the DL. Clement and Donnelly. I would not be particularly surprised to hear that sometime in the next week, Kyle Snyder pulls an eyelid and has to be disabled. But, as it stands, only two of Ellsbury/Lester/Buchholz can make the playoff roster. My preferred playoff roster has Buchholz in the starting rotation, and Wakefield in the bullpen. I guess Lester could be in the bullpen. I expect the Red Sox will start Wakefield, and Buchholz and Lester are pretty redundant in the bullpen. Will the Sox be forced to choose one?
Papelbon, Okajima, Delcarmen, Timlin, Lopez, Gagne, Buchholz/Lester
I guess you could get creative and drop Lopez and try out Lester as a loogy / long man, but that would be quite a shift for Lester, and I'd be surprised if they tried it without testing him in the regular season. You could also leave Gagne off the roster for Buchholz and use the kid as a mid-lev reliever instead of a long man. If the Sox play the Angels, they should leave Lopez off the roster, which would free spots for both Buchholz and Lester (assuming roster shenanigans to get it done).
I think we may have passed that point. I wouldn't be surprised to see Ellsbury get the majority of the playing time in Center this coming week, and start in Center for the playoffs. I'm certainly rooting for it to happen. I went to the game last night, and they first announced Crisp as the starter in center before the game, but once the game started, we saw Ellsbury go out to centerfield. Anyone know the story? Was it a last minute change? Did Francona mention it?
If the Sox only get two spots for Ellsbury/Lester/Bucholz, I'm guessing its Ellsbury and Lester, and Lester is the fourth starter in the playoffs. Or maybe that's just me hoping it will come true.
I guess you could get creative and drop Lopez and try out Lester as a loogy / long man, but that would be quite a shift for Lester
I would, maybe I'm just a fanboy, but is there any way possible that Lester will be worse than Javier Lopez?
FWIW, Lester has actually faired worse against lefties (OPS 919) than righties (744). Lopez has more typical splits (694 v LH and 805 v RH). So there's that.
I want Buccholz in there so bad. I understand protecting him and all, but he seems like the 3th or 4th best pitcher on the team to me.
FWIW, tfbg9's ultra-wise postseason roster:
Cappy
Youks
Dusty
Mikey
Lugo
Manny
Coco
JD
Papi
Ellsbury
Hinske
Cora
Kielty
'Belli
Beckett 1
Dice 2
Schill 3
Clay 4 (if need be)
Papsie(new friendly nickname)
Okajima
MDC
Lopez
Wake (Longman-take that km!)
Timeline (new nickname for the ageless, 6th inning periphial defying wonder)
Gagne (gulp!)
Javier Lopez would end up walking Garret Anderson anyway. Like I said, somebody has to take Javier Lopez away from Terry Francona.
Has Jon Lester ever thrown as a reliever before? Maybe we shoudl stick him the pen for the playoffs, and make him the longinning mopup man, or the LOOGY. Becuase Javier Lopez can do neither.
P.S. Brandon Moss is looking pretty decent defensively in the corners.
Edit: If you're not going to start Wake, I'd take Cash. Cash seems to be a better defensive catcher than Doug.
Javier Lopez is not a LOOGY. He doens't get lefies out.
Daisuke has been a lot better on extra rest, though. Schilling's splits are pretty even the last two years, so I think the best rotation for the Red Sox would be Beckett-Schilling-Daisuke-Beckett-Schilling. Have there been reports of what the team plans?
If they go to a 3-man rotation, that would theoretically open up a spot for another position player. The Angels' only lefty in the pen is Darren Oliver, so it wouldn't be completely crazy to carry another LH bat - that would mean using the second K-Rod loophole on Brandon Moss. My guess, though, is that the added value from such a switch is tiny - in 5 games over 8 days, the 25th man will usually sit on the bench the entire time.
Guys we all assume make the roster:
Varitek, Mirabelli, Youkilis, Hinske, Pedroia, Lugo, Cora, Lowell, Manny, Crisp, Drew, Ellsbury, Kielty, Papi
Beckett, Schilling, Matsuzaka, Wakefield, Papelbon, Okajima, Delcarmen, Timlin, Gagne
With the long series, I think Javier Lopez definitely makes the roster - even if he only pitches to Anderson once, he'll probably add more value than another 10th pitcher, given the extra days of rest.
That leaves one spot among Moss, Lester, Corey, and Tavarez. My guess, from the usage patterns of the last few days, is that they want to give the spot to Corey. (If they pull Tavarez after 50ish pitches today, then he's the guy.) But I wouldn't really be surprised by any of the above, and as I said above, in the end it probably doesn't really matter. I still like the game of it, though, and sometimes it does matter.
I pick Lester. If there is a blowout, somebody needs to come in and eat up innings. Jon Lester is that guy. He can also be the emergency LOOGY should Javier Lopez fail (which I expect him to do)
Lester, in the minors, has struggled badly coming out of the pen - even when he was "starting from the pen", coming into a game during a pre-arranged inning - and he hasn't pitched out the bullpen all year. I don't think he'd be a good choice.
If the Red Sox go to a four-man staff, I think Tavarez is the most likely long man.
EDIT: just a thought, but I wonder if Jon Lester might be on tap as a fourth starter in the ALCS, if the Sox get through the first round. He's pitched well against CLE, and the Yankees are lefty-heavy - 845/782 splits.
The usage patterns of the last week have pretty much confirmed Delcarmen as the #3 reliever.
Manny Delcarmen.
Hmmm...
I don't think this is the right choice, given Daisuke's clearly diminished effectiveness on normal rest, but, well, hopefully I'm wrong.
All times EDT.
Wed 10/03 6:37p
Fri 10/05 8:37p
Sun 10/07 3:07p
Mon 10/08 9:37p
Wed 10/10 8:37p
They could do it like wrestling. "Who's coming out... I can't see who it is... Oh my God I think that's Schilling's music! And he's got a chair!"
Or maybe they could wear masks so we're not sure who it is until the game's over.
Do you really think Theo/Francona are so hubristic as to base their division series rotation on the ALCS? I suppose, if they thought Schilling v. Matsuzaka for game 2 was a push, the way it lines up for the ALCS could be a tiebreaker. But I hope and assume it's not the first, second, or third factor.
The decision doesn't make sense to me. Maybe Schilling is hurting somehow. He'll be on a lot of rest for game three.
Yeah, like we can't tell who's fat whiteass is pitching.
Regulars:
Jason Varitek
Kevin Youkilis
Dustin Pedroia
Julio Lugo
Mike Lowell
J.D. Drew
Coco Crisp
Manny Ramirez
David Ortiz
Bench:
Eric Hinske
Alex Cora
Jacoby Ellsbury
Bobby Kielty
Doug Mirabelli
Kevin Cash
Pitchers:
Josh Beckett
Daisuke Matsuzaka
Curt Schilling
Jon Lester
Jonathan Papelbon
Eric Gagne
Hideki Okajima
Mike Timlin
Manny Delcarmen
Javier Lopez
Why the #### are Kevin Cash AND Doug Mirabelli necessary? ESPECIALLY WHEN TIM WAKEFIELD IS NOT ON THE ROSTER?
Should Manny get hurt or Ortiz get hurt (or Youkilis, or Drew, etc. etc. etc.) One of the options would be to DH Varitek and let Cash or Mirabelli catch. Because if you DH Varitek, should you lose a C or PH for the C you'd need a 3rd catcher to come in or you'd lose the DH.
You can't DH Hinske because he's Youkilis insurance. You could DH Ellsbury, but I suspect they wouldn't want to because they may want him as a late defensive sub or as a PR option late.
So I think there is a train of thinking that gets you to where you'd need a 3rd C, but it also means that perhaps they're worried about Ortiz (and Manny) far more than they've been letting on. It could also mean they might start Ortiz at 1st should Youkilis not be able to go, DH Manny and start Ellsbury.
But I don't know. I mean I get that maybe you'd want Moss in there over Cash or Mirabelli, but if that is the difference in the series the Red Sox are in trouble.
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