Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Sox Therapy > Discussion
Sox Therapy
— Where Thinking Red Sox Fans Obsess about the Sox

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. philly Posted: August 24, 2005 at 03:38 AM (#1568158)
Two runs in the 9th says Timlin will fit right in as the Sox closer.
   2. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: August 24, 2005 at 03:48 AM (#1568192)
Yup
   3. Mikαεl Posted: August 24, 2005 at 10:34 AM (#1568415)
Schilling wasn't used in the classic closer role.

He pitched the majority of tied 9ths, and he pitched a lot of complete or partial 8th innings. Now, granted, he wasn't any good in this role, but his work resembled the NBJHBA relief proposal as much as the traditional role. The only problem were all the +3 9ths. (And all the sucking.)

I agree with Darren about fears of Timlin wearing down. I don't really know what best to do about it. Lil' Papi would be a cool idea, but that depends on how the 64th Schilling experiment goes.
   4. karlmagnus Posted: August 24, 2005 at 01:01 PM (#1568470)
Transferring (with minor modifications) from last night's Game Chatter -- thanks Darren for starting this thread:

Timlin’s near-toast; tired at the end of a long season, and his age is showing. Papelbon should close, and Delcarmen and Hansen be brought up for bullpen roles, while Timlin is relegated to long relief and Remlinger DFA’d. This bullpen needs to get younger and better in a hurry.
   5. The Flying Monkey Posted: August 24, 2005 at 05:22 PM (#1569037)
papelbon has 10 bbs in 16 innings and you guys want him as your "relief ace?" timlin has 16 bbs over the whole season (63 innings). maybe timlin is going to be burnt out, but i'd much rather have him in the "relief ace" innings than papelbon, or gonzalez for that matter. gonzalez is fine for what he is--long man/mop-up. and i'd rather see hansen on the team than delcarmen, who, in my eyes, did not appear ready for the bigs.
   6. Joel W Posted: August 24, 2005 at 07:06 PM (#1569357)
Timlin has been very good this year because he has walked very few people and given up 1 HR (which should get talked about more, 1 HR in 63 IP of work is VERY GOOD) Unfortunately, his K rate is 6 per 9 IP which isn't great and it makes his hit rate high enough (especially as a groundball guy, where hit rates are higher but with lower slugging) that he allows more IR to score than otherwise would.

Paplebon, as a starter, has K'd 15 in 16 IP. His K/BB rate was 3.5 to 1 in Portland. His control isn't perfect, but his K rate is good, and he'll be moving to the pen, where he can gas a bit more. This means that when getting runners on 2nd and 3rd w/ 1 out he's got a better chance than Timlin of preventing them from scoring.

So give me Timlin as the "traditional" closer, if he comes in in the 9th with nobody on, he's got a good chance to close it out. Give me Paplebon w/ runners on.
   7. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: August 24, 2005 at 08:07 PM (#1569610)
papelbon has 10 bbs in 16 innings and you guys want him as your "relief ace?"

No offense, but have you watched the games he's started? For the most part, the walks have come near the end of his outings as he's tired out.
   8. The Flying Monkey Posted: August 24, 2005 at 09:20 PM (#1569851)
i've watched. a lot of his strikeouts, at least to my eyes, have come with batters swinging at fastballs up and out of the zone. he appears to have shaky command with his breaking stuff, but can usually locate his fastball. as for the bbs, are they coming because he is tiring? it's not like he has been worked any harder than he was in the minors. i'm not saying i think papelbon is bad--i think he can help the team and moving to the pen should help--but i don't think he's ready to be a "relief ace."

as for timlin, obviously the single home run is a fluke, but his control has been nothing short of stellar throughout his tenure on the sox. that's always why he's been "good." having a guy who ks a decent amount, bbs close to zero, and keeps the ball on the ground is a damn good pitcher, in my opinion.

fwiw, i think abe alvarez could help this team about as much as papelbon, and i'm surprised he hasn't gotten a chance. he has given up a lot of homers this year(fluke?), but has a pretty nice strikeout rate throughout his minor league career.
other than the homeritus this season, he really hasn't been much worse than papelbon.
   9. OlePerfesser Posted: August 24, 2005 at 09:26 PM (#1569862)
I ain't sayin' nuthin', but I've witnessed one previous attempt to coronate Timlin as a closer (in Baltimore), and it wasn't pretty. As people surveyed the wreckage of that experiment, it was commonly said that the man was "wound too tight" to thrive in that role, IIRC. Maybe he's loosened up some, or maybe it was always B.S., but it might be reason to hope Foulke quickly figures out how to pitch with two good knees.
   10. Darren Posted: August 24, 2005 at 09:28 PM (#1569866)
i've watched. a lot of his strikeouts, at least to my eyes, have come with batters swinging at fastballs up and out of the zone. he appears to have shaky command with his breaking stuff, but can usually locate his fastball.

All the more reason that he would be better in relief right now.

as for the bbs, are they coming because he is tiring? it's not like he has been worked any harder than he was in the minors. i'm not saying i think papelbon is bad--i think he can help the team and moving to the pen should help--but i don't think he's ready to be a "relief ace."

He doesn't have to be ready, he just has to be better than the other options that we have right now.

fwiw, i think abe alvarez could help this team about as much as papelbon, and i'm surprised he hasn't gotten a chance.

I like Alvarez a lot but I'm having hard time picturing him doing better than Pap has been, particularly in the pen.
   11. Mikαεl Posted: August 24, 2005 at 09:36 PM (#1569875)
Alvarez is currently allowing about a run every two innings against AAA hitters. He has high HR and hit rates, which are not unsurprising for a pitcher with quite unspectacular stuff. (Alvarez' HR and hit rates weren't great in AA either.) I think he can be a useful pitcher in a year or two - Alvarez is still very young - but I doubt he'd be any better than Lenny Dinardo right now.

Jon Papelbon dominated minor league competition in a way that Alvarez never has. In his fastball, he has the plus pitch than Alvarez lacks. I see a large difference between the two.

Should he be the closer? I voiced my support for the possibility, given another Timlin fade in September. If Timlin can't handle the role, Papelbon looks like the next best option.

The problem, though, is that projecting Lil' Papi into the bullpen requires projecting Fatty McBushlover into the rotation, despite his inability to pitch well anywhere all year. Given my skepticism about this experiment, I'm not too inclined to draw up a bullpen that includes Papelbon.
   12. Mikαεl Posted: August 24, 2005 at 09:37 PM (#1569878)
One other thing- Papelbon got a bunch of K's on elevated four-seamers. That's a really good thing. It shows that he has a heater with good late movement that can deceive major league hitters. Those Ks are a significant part of why I think he'd be good in the bullpen, if that were to happen.
   13. Joe Bivens, Minor Genius Posted: August 24, 2005 at 10:19 PM (#1569942)
I remember another young Red Sox pitcher who struck out a lot of batters who couldn't lay off his high heat, and he has had a HoF career. I'm not saying Papelbon will be another Clemens, but I think that it's a good sign when guys strike out swinging at high heat, and that Papelbon should be in the starting rotation NOW, ahead of Miller, and ahead of Schilling.

Schilling may be done. I don't know how it's best to use him. Too many of his closer appearances have been BH Kim-like. Not the good BH Kim...the very bad BH Kim. I can't figure out what this guy's role is going to be. Even if he pitches well against KC tomorrow, it won't convince me that he's ready to start again. I'm worried about him.

I see a rotation of Wells, Clement, Papelbon, Arroyo, and Wakefield, and if they don't get a healthy Foulke back soon, it will be sayonara come the first round of the playoffs...assuming they even make it.
   14. Darren Posted: August 24, 2005 at 10:57 PM (#1570020)
The problem, though, is that projecting Lil' Papi into the bullpen requires projecting Fatty McBushlover into the rotation, despite his inability to pitch well anywhere all year.

Actually, it doesn't matter whether you put Schilling in the rotation, because he's pretty much shown that he's not a great option at closer. IOW, you shouldn't let what Schilling does affect whether you give Pap a shot at closing.
   15. Joe Bivens, Minor Genius Posted: August 24, 2005 at 11:02 PM (#1570032)
I'm hoping Foulke comes back healthy, and soon, and they leave Papelbon in the rotation.
   16. The Flying Monkey Posted: August 24, 2005 at 11:05 PM (#1570041)
well,
if there is a large difference between papelbon and alvarez, it isn't entirely evident in their k rates, which are fairly similar. obviously papelbon has a slight edge in this area. also, their homer rates were pretty similar at AA, as they both gave up roughly one every ten innings (actually, alvarez's was slightly better). add to this the fact that alvarez is two years younger, and i think it becomes debatable as to who will have the better career. i do agree that the hit rate is a bit of a concern.

ok...to some degree i'm playing devil's advocate here. i think pap is probably better, but not by a lot. either way, i think abe could be helping this club. that was really my point. my other point is that i think timlin would be better served as the relief ace, which brings me to...

darren: are you saying that you don't think a "relief ace" should be a really good pitcher? what's the point of even creating that role if he is hardly better than your next guy?
   17. Mikαεl Posted: August 24, 2005 at 11:16 PM (#1570067)
Darren -

My thinking was that Schilling matters w/r/t Lil' Papi because if Schilling craps out in the rotation, we only have four starters, and we need Papelbon in the rotation.
   18. Darren Posted: August 24, 2005 at 11:19 PM (#1570074)
well,
if there is a large difference between papelbon and alvarez, it isn't entirely evident in their k rates, which are fairly similar.


In AAA, Alvarez has K'ed 106 in 139 IP, or 6.86/9 IP.
In AAA, Pap K'ed 27 in 27.2 IP, or 8.8/9 IP. In AA, it was 8.58, and in the majors it's 15 in 16 or 8.4.

When you consider that Alvarez has put a lot more runners on base per inning, his K rate sinks even lower in comparison. It's just not even close.

my other point is that i think timlin would be better served as the relief ace, which brings me to...


A relief ace in the James model, I'd definitely disagree, because I think he tends to struggle w/multiple innings and >15 pitches.

darren: are you saying that you don't think a "relief ace" should be a really good pitcher? what's the point of even creating that role if he is hardly better than your next guy?

Ideally, you'd want a great pitcher there. I think Pap has the best chance of the current pen-sters to be great in that role.

But even if you only consider him decent, you know that Francona is going to use someone as a closer/ace. I think Pap would stand up to the rigors of the role better than Timlin.
   19. Darren Posted: August 24, 2005 at 11:19 PM (#1570075)
and he's on my fantasy team.
   20. Darren Posted: August 24, 2005 at 11:21 PM (#1570081)
My thinking was that Schilling matters w/r/t Lil' Papi because if Schilling craps out in the rotation, we only have four starters, and we need Papelbon in the rotation.

By the post season, that's all we'll need. If he craps out so badly that he's yanked before 1+ month is up, yeah, we're screwed.
   21. OlePerfesser Posted: August 25, 2005 at 04:12 PM (#1572314)
Ken Rosenthal has a Mr. Sunshine-like assessment of Schilling's chances for success back in the rotation. Me likey.

And won't we all have fun when Schill faces Raffy the next time?
   22. Mikαεl Posted: August 25, 2005 at 05:08 PM (#1572459)
I hope that's exactly what happens.

The following struck me as somewhat off, though:

Repertoire. A four-pitch pitcher, Schilling thrives on being unpredictable and keeping hitters off-balance. He relied mainly on his fastball and split pitching out of the bullpen, using his slider and curveball sparingly. Instead of being a thrower, he can go back to being a pitcher, working with greater margin for error.

Schilling's basically a two-pitch pitcher, from my observation. It'd be great to have the exact data, but i bet he threw ~95% fastballs and splitters last year, and maybe even more back in Arizona at his peak. As a closer, he was a one-pitch pitcher, and the fastball didn't have the old jump. I liked the curveballs he threw (all four of them), and I sorta think he could be a 4.00-4.50 starter with mainly fastballs and curves.
   23. OlePerfesser Posted: August 26, 2005 at 01:45 AM (#1574048)
Unfortunately, I believe both the Rosenthal Hypothesis and the Eureka Theory have been disproved this evening by the Washington Generals... er, KC Royals.
   24. Joel W Posted: August 26, 2005 at 03:22 AM (#1574405)
except for the 6 Ks 1 BB and no HRs...anybody care to tell me how he looked, I was at the O's game
   25. Famous Original Joe C Posted: August 26, 2005 at 05:26 AM (#1574635)
It was basically like 4 of his outings back to back.

Flashes of brilliance, but lots of hung splitters, missed locations, and flat fastballs.

He wasn't terrible, but there wasn't much to like either.

2004 was pretty sweet though, huh?
   26. Famous Original Joe C Posted: August 26, 2005 at 05:28 AM (#1574637)
You know, I wouldn't give up on Schilling yet...I bet he could come back healthy and be a 180-200 inning, ~3.75 guy in 2006.

This year though....I hope they can get to the playoffs and he can pull a couple out of his ass at the right time....that looks like about the best we can hope for at this point, although I hope I'm wrong.
   27. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: August 26, 2005 at 08:28 AM (#1574732)
This year though....I hope they can get to the playoffs and he can pull a couple out of his #### at the right time....that looks like about the best we can hope for at this point, although I hope I'm wrong.

Should i prepare to jump infront of a bus anytime soon?
   28. Darren Posted: August 26, 2005 at 10:05 PM (#1575971)
Ken Rosenthal has a Mr. Sunshine-like assessment of Schilling's chances for success back in the rotation. Me likey.

This is going to sound like hindsight, but I hated that article right from the day I read it. It took everything that was going wrong for Schilling and assumed that it would be fixed by starting. Everything he was doing right proved that he was ready to start.

Here's the real problem: Schilling was sent to the pen with the (supposed) plan of making him useful while gradually stretching him out for the rotation. Instead, he was instantly inserted as the closer and worked 1 IP day after day. That was silly.

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
The Piehole of David Wells
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Syndicate

Page rendered in 0.2078 seconds
60 querie(s) executed