Given that Beckett and Schilling are dodgy injury-wise, Dice-K threw 72 pitches in 3 innings, Buchholz is said to be returning to AAA and we're proposing Colon in the rotation, I'd say Sox if they continue with this run of luck will finish 4th in the AL East (still beating Baltimore.) Of course, we got lucky in '04 and '07, so bad luck in '05, 06 and '08 is acceptable. On the other hand, we may not have Manny in '09.

I'd say that's a real possibility, too. I don't know where all this supposed rotation depth is supposed to be.

The supposed rotation depth included both Schilling and Beckett. Since Schilling went down, I haven't heard anyone say the team has an especially deep rotation. If Beckett's seriously hurt, then they're screwed.

Karl--who is saying that Buc is headed to AAA? I hadn't seen that.

Looks like Prospectus, but it's behind the pay curtain:

AL Rumors and Rumblings: Bartolo Colon has looked so good in Boston’s camp after a so-so performance in winter ball in his native Dominican Republic that the Red Sox are considering using him as the fifth starter and having top prospect Taylor Buchholz begin the season at Triple-A Pawtucket. …

link for the passworded...

But if Coco and Lugo's problems were caused by ailments, why did the Red Sox continue to play them? Could their problems be alleviated by a continuous period of rest? Could Coco perhaps recover better from the surgery better if he spent several weeks rehabbing in Pawtucket?

Obviously the Red Sox won even with Crisp and Lugo cratering, so the front office should be credited with assembling a strong and deep roster. But their handling of these two might speak to an organizational symptom, namely to play hurt guys even when they don't help the team, and to hide it from the public to boot. I think they are doing it with regard to Schilling this year, although I'm speaking from a distance so take what I say with a ton of salt.

That seems particularly believable with Lugo, since he was absurdly skinny last year (has he always been that thin?). And if you're just having trouble keeping anything down or putting any weight on, then I can definitely see playing through it. And it's not like the Sox had a bunch of better options lined up.

Of course, this year, Lugo is one year older-- I'm not expecting a career year or anything. But didn't he have one particularly putrid-- I mean, just mind-numbingly horrendous-- month (or maybe six weeks)? Is that when his condition was worst?

AL Rumors and Rumblings: Bartolo Colon has looked so good in Boston’s camp after a so-so performance in winter ball in his native Dominican Republic that the Red Sox are considering using him as the fifth starter and having top prospect Taylor Buchholz begin the season at Triple-A Pawtucket. …

Sweet, we got Taylor Buchholz too! Love that front office! Way to fill that Schilling gap asap!

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=7517

I'm starting to drink Bartolo's Kool-Aid. When we first signed him I was pretty terrified of him pitching 55 innings with a 6.35 ERA. Actually, when I decided to post just now it was to reiterate that I'm still terrified. But just looking at his stats, his K/BB was good even last year, and the notes in the papers seem more positive than they were for Wade Miller or Matt Mantei.

I wish they weren't giving him Buchholz's rotation spot, but I get the impression that they really wanted to avoid having him start in the majors for no other reason than insuring he doesn't come close to 200 IP

Beckett's back and Tampa Bay's PECOTA projection still scare the crap out of me though.

Nobody said this year was going to be a cakewalk. Oh, wait -- tons of people have been making that (foolish) assumption ever since we resigned everybody from the 2007 team.

Beckett's injury worries me a bit. Together with the earlier (doctored?) photo, I'm wondering if he is truly ready for Spring Training. That's always a challenge when you miss a month of the off-season and spend much of the rest partying. I'm sure he got some workouts in there as well, but it is impossible to know how they compared with his workouts in previous seasons.

Matsuzaka should worry me more, given his heavy workload last year, but for some reason I'm less concerned. I think he's got something to prove this year.

Lugo hit for a .310 OPS in June and wasn't terribly good before that either. He hit a solid .280 after the ASB, which is roughly what I'm hoping for this year. Crisp was very bad at the start of the year, then went on a tear, then struggled with another injury in September while Manny rested his own aches and pains. He's proving to have a hard time staying healthy, but *IF* he can solve that problem he could be much better this year.

No clue on Colon's chances. Good catch on that BABIP. If he can get that back down, he'll be effective. Maybe not good, but effective. **CLAY** Buchholz will get his starts eventually, and a month or two in the minors will delay his FA eligibility. Just as well that we don't have him in the rotation from Opening Day.

Pitcher A: 93 IP, 121 H, 12 HR, 22 BB, 87 K, 80 ERA+
Pitcher B: 99 IP, 132 H, 15 HR, 29 BB, 76 K, 72 ERA+

That's Bartolo Colon 2007 (B) and Curt Schilling 2005 (A). I don't know if the comparison means anything, but I think it's useful to think with.

I am strongly invested in understanding Schilling's 2005 numbers as a real measurement of his pitching, rather than as a DIPS fluke. He still had a fastball, but it wasn't quite as good, and he had such terrible command of his splitter that he was never able to settle in to a good pattern all year, and he would give up a couple extra-base hits on bad splitters in almost every outing. His spotty-at-best command of his secondary pitches lead to hits off bad splitters and curves and hits off fastballs that hitters could sit on because the heater was the only pitch he had that night, even as he was able to keep the K/BB solid by pounding the zone with the fastball.

Colon, like Schilling was coming back too early from an injury. Colon, like Schilling, relies primarily on a plus fastball, though Colon is significantly weaker in secondary stuff. Did Colon have a bad or nonexistent slider last year? Was he just short of fastball velocity? I feel like I've read that Colon's problem was a lack of a fastball, which would be a notable difference from Schilling's 2005. If he was getting hit hard because he was pounding the zone with a weaker fastball, but doesn't have much of a chance of reclaiming his good secondary stuff - like Schilling did in 2006 - then Colon might have less of a chance of turning it around. Though the reports on his stuff, mainly his fastball, have been very positive this spring.

Obviously we all hope that Colon can turn around and have Curt's 2006, and I guess it's possible. Colon's 2007 definitely looks like another piece of evidence that DIPS doesn't work on veteran pitchers who aren't fully healthy, or have worn down - they get chances, perhaps, that a AAAA guy would never get.

Here's the depressing comparison for Colon, though luckily it's nowhere near as spot-on as the Schilling numbers...

73 IP, 107 H, 5 HR, 19 BB, 50 K, 65 ERA+

That's Kevin Brown 2004. He played a major role in the worst choke in sports history, then was out of baseball.

On Lugo, I like the intestinal parasite explanation. It has the virtue of being original - he poked a badger with a spoon - but, I dunno, it doesn't fit the numbers as well as I'd like for an endpoint game.

OPS+ by month, since 2006:

64, 171, 126, 64, 21, 90, 53, -16, 118, 86, 76

Up until midseason 2006, Lugo was a pretty solid ~100 OPS+ hitter. Since midseason 2006, he's been in the 50-80 range, for the most part. You could average out his June and July 2007 to get a really pretty set of numbers that show his consistent bad hitting starting before the parasite. (I should have done two-month splits, if I wanted to massage the numbers real nice.)

On the other hand, you can also see improvement over the course of the season in 2007 if you look at it right, and then you can explain the second half of 2006 as random variation or maybe stress in LA or something, and project good news for Lugo.

He's 32 now, so even if Lugo's health is the main factor in his precipitous decline, and he can be projected to be healthy, he still shouldn't be projected to the solidly above average hitter at SS that he used to be. But if Lugo could just manage a 730 OPS, he'd be a far more useful player than most of us are probably predicting.

Bad day for Beckett's back (Globe). Basically, there's more inflammation, and there's no timeline yet for when he can start throwing again.

Curts's near perfect game is now on NESN.

I'm starting to drink Bartolo's Kool-Aid. When we first signed him I was pretty terrified of him pitching 55 innings with a 6.35 ERA.

You know, for a 5th starter that's hardly the worst thing in the world. 'Course, I'm speaking as a Mets fan who may have developed a permanent twitch watching Dave Williams, Jose Lima, Alay Soler, Geremi Gonzalez, and the like "pitch" during the last couple of years.

Rotoworld reporting that the Mets and Red Sox are working on a Coco Crisp-Angel Pagan trade.

Rotoworld reporting that the Mets and Red Sox are working on a Coco Crisp-Angel Pagan trade.

Boston Globe says it's a nasty rumor.

Mirabelli released.

Cash will catch Wakefield unless something else comes up.

The end of an era, part two? Is this going to be a three part story folks? Surely, you say, Epstein can't dump I'M DOUG MIRABELLI twice, only two pick him up again? Huh? Well, last week people said Eliot Spitzer was an ethical crusader didn't they?

That is weird.

A team with the Red Sox' resources should not have Kevin Cash as their backup catcher, with at least one start guaranteed each week. They could have tried to acquire a real backup catcher, but they gave Dougie a guaranteed contract instead, and now they're stuck with (hopefully) the marginally superior of two bad choices.

The optimistic case here would be (a) the Sox won a World Series with Dougie posting a .278 OBP, so this isn't the highest leverage decision in the world and (b) there's still a chance they could acquire a reasonable backup catcher in a Coco Crisp deal. If said reasonable backup catcher is going to catch for the Sox, though, you'd want him to get at least a full spring of receiving the knuckler so you can make sure you don't have another Josh Bard on your hands.

According to the little Sox prospects write-up, Dusty Brown is a very solid defensive catcher. I think I'd confused him a bit with Jeff Bailey, but if Dusty can catch, and can catch the knuckler, he's almost certainly a better choice than Cash.

So, that's optimistic take (c). I like it better than the other two I offered.

Cafardo's report on Mirabelli's official release makes it sound as if there's now a competition between Brown and Cash for the backup slot. The first piece I read made it sound like Cash was the man.

Given that I am firmly convinced that Kevin Cash cannot hit, but open to being convinced that Dusty Brown can hit, I would prefer to see Brown. Plus it's nice for an organization guy - Brown was a 35th-round pick seven years ago - get a shot.

I find this series of sentences pretty comical:

Assistant GM Jed Hoyer was assigned this winter by Theo Epstein to find the team a backup catcher. But after a long and thorough search, Mirabelli was brought back at a salary of $550,000 which also included a $275,000 roster bonus, a $150,000 conditioning bonus and the possibility to earn $1.25 million in performance bonuses based mostly on games. Mirabelli, a member of the Red Sox since 2001, was hitting .273 with one RBI in 11 spring at-bats, while Cash is hitting .250 in 16 at-bats.

So the front office had its rising star spend all winter finding a backup catcher. Hoyer realized he could pinch Doug Mirabelli from the defending world series champs, obviously infatuated with his winning-dirt dog attitude and playoff experience, and the club generously allowed Dougie all of eleven spring-training at-bats before they realized he wasn't the second coming of Carlton Fisk, and release him?

The real concern is what happens if Tek gets hurt.

Well, that's always been the concern. And they're still not prepared for it. That said, most of the teams that are prepared for the offensive impact of a long-term injury to the first-string catcher don't have a first-stringer who can hit.

Should Tek get hurt, the near-term solution will be to call someone up. And if they call someone up, I could easily see that the MLB backup doesn't become the first-stringer. IOW, if Cash is Tek's backup, I don't see Cash taking the lead role with Kottaras or Brown as the new backup. I see it the other way around.

The primary role of Boston's backup catcher while Tek is healthy is to spell him every few games and/or to catch knuckleballs. The primary role of Boston's backup catcher while Tek is injured is the same - spell the starter and/or catch Wake. There's an unfortunate middle ground - Tek is healthy enough to stay off the DL but hurt enough to be ineffective - that might call for more than a spot start. For that, I don't know what to say. But if Cash is the best candidate to be Tek's backup, he might also be the best candidate to backup Brown or Kottaras.

So the front office had its rising star spend all winter finding a backup catcher. He found Doug Mirabelli, but after Dougie failed to get 4 hits in his first 11 spring training chances, they drop him?

I'm assuming the move is based not on the numbers, but the approach that led to the numbers. Was he in shape? Is he applying himself? Does his approach at the plate suggest good things or bad things?

And it's not necessarily what Mirabelli showed vs. Cash. It's what he showed vs. Cash, Brown - and, yes, Kottaras.

Brown's PECOTA is just as bad as Cash's. Cash is a lot better defensively.

vi - While I certainly agree that spring performance rather than spring statistics was the determining factor for this decision, I think the issue is more that it's really hard to believe that Doug Mirabelli was the best choice to compete against Brown and Cash this spring. They couldn't give a third guaranteed contract to a catcher, and they chose Mirabelli for the second. It seems like a case of loyalty trumping judgment.

Does this make me the biggest fanboy on the Internets? Maybe so, but rose-colored glasses are stylish these days for Sox fans.

It's good to see that you're off of the pants pissing bandwagon so early, Darren. Enjoy the season.

Is Buccholz headed to Pawtucket?

I'm assuming the move is based not on the numbers, but the approach that led to the numbers. Was he in shape? Is he applying himself? Does his approach at the plate suggest good things or bad things?

The Globe article says:

According to team sources, the 37-year-old Mirabelli's bat had slowed since last season, when he appeared in 48 games and hit just .202 with 5 home runs and 16 RBIs. His defense, particularly his throwing arm, has declined. In the end, the Red Sox decided Kevin Cash, as solid as there is defensively, was the better option.

It sounds as though he's just hit the wall, physically. Maybe it's a work ethic thing, but probably only in that a catcher of his age and ability who doesn't put forth a good effort is toast.

Is Buccholz headed to Pawtucket?

Seems like there's a chance. Here's the report on Colon's start yesterday:

Bartolo Colon was hitting 94 miles per hour, throwing 92-93 consistently with his four-seam fastball
...
There were a lot of scouts on hand to watch Colon, and the consensus was, "Wish we'd signed him."

"It was a lot more velocity than we expected," Red Sox general manager Theo Epstein said. "He had good arm strength for his first time out. Much more life on the ball than the side session he had, which is what we wanted to see."

Sounds like there's more to work on, but Colon could be close.

The Red Sox definitely want to limit Buchholz's innings to 170-180 this season, so a short trip to Pawtucket is probably in the cards at some point or another.

According to Cot's Contracts and the Herald, only $150k of Mirabelli's contract was guaranteed. Another $400k would have become guaranteed on March 19th (thus the timing of the release).

My take on it? They were ready to go into camp with a three-way competition for backup catcher between Kottaras, Brown, and Cash. They were willing to acquire a better backup, if one could be found, or to toss $150k to Mirabelli on the off chance that he beats out the others, but they didn't feel a real need for additional warm bodies.

In appreciation of Papelbon.

Career post-season stats: 14.2 innings pitched, 0 earned runs, 7 hits, 4 walks and 9 strike-outs

The Red Sox definitely want to limit Buchholz's innings to 170-180 this season, so a short trip to Pawtucket is probably in the cards at some point or another.

That would be my guess. I could see them giving him some project, like work on fastball command and don't throw your curve/change or something, which will make his early stats look weird.

Career post-season stats: 14.2 innings pitched, 0 earned runs, 7 hits, 4 walks and 9 strike-outs

In appreciation of Keith Foulke's 2004 post-season:

14 IP, 1 ER, 7 hits, 8 walks, and 19! strikeouts.

The Sox announced today that the starters in Japan will be Matsuzaka and Lester (Globe report).

Makes sense. With Beckett out, Buchholz struggling (and more importantly, on a tight IP leash), it was Lester or Wake. The confidence in the young guy is a good thing.

Makes sense. With Beckett out, Buchholz struggling (and more importantly, on a tight IP leash), it was Lester or Wake. The confidence in the young guy is a good thing.

It could be that Wakefield doesn't want to do all that travelling. I am just speculating, of course.

Sounds like there's more to work on, but Colon could be close.

He got smacked around today by the Yankees. Of course, the Yankees can do that to healthy pitcher as well.

It could be that Wakefield doesn't want to do all that travelling. I am just speculating, of course.

nope. word is that wake and buchholz will go in the exhibition games in japan.

In appreciation of the 2003 bullpen troika's postseason:

Mike Timlin: 9.2 innings, 1 hit, 2 walks, 0 ER, 11 K's

Alan Embree: 6.2 innings, 4 hits, 0 walks, 0 ER

S. Williamson: 8 innings, 3 hits, 3 walks, 1 ER, 14 K's

... so thats 24.1 innings, giving up 8 hits and 1 run

...... (this is the anti-schiraldi thread, apparently)

They stop sweating the small stuff and focus on what's really important.

and we all know that throwing strikes and keeping the fastball down are what's really important.

They stop sweating the small stuff and focus on what's really important.

and we all know that throwing strikes and keeping the fastball down are what's really important.

Given today's outing, what's the over/under on Wok calling for Colon to get cancer?

EDIT: ...and there's your first inadvertent colon cancer reference of the spring.

Given today's outing, what's the over/under on Wok calling for Colon to get cancer?

8-10 per start?

Makes sense. With Beckett out, Buchholz struggling (and more importantly, on a tight IP leash), it was Lester or Wake. The confidence in the young guy is a good thing.

I'd guess it has more to do with the number of lefties in Oakland's lineup than anything else. They're probably looking at a lineup something like:

Buck RF (L)
Ellis 2B (R)
Barton 1B (L)
Cust LF (L)
Sweeney DH (R)
Crosby SS (R)
Hannahan 3B (L)
Suzuki C (R)
Denorfia CF (R)

So that's four lefties in the starting 9, and probably all 3 of their best offensive threats are among those four (Barton, Cust, and Buck specifically). I would think that the advantage Lester gains vs. those lefties in combination with the fact that it makes no sense to have one of those 2 games be an off day for Varitek makes it an easy choice to go with Lester over Wakefield. You hate to lose Varitek's bat in one of those 2 games since they aren't playing another game that counts until several days afterwards.

Good news on the bleeding front: Beckett ahead of schedule, throws 45 pitches in bullpen (Redsox.com link):

Red Sox ace Josh Beckett, who was not expected to pitch from a mound until Thursday, had a 45-pitch bullpen session Wednesday morning at City of Palms Park before the team's game against the Blue Jays.
...
"In Beckett's bullpen this morning, he proved that there were no restrictions when he got on the mound," Farrell said. "He went through his 45-pitch bullpen today, and surprisingly the arm strength hasn't suffered that much of a setback. Granted, it was just a bullpen. But I think the first step toward his game progression will likely go through another bullpen."

Good news on the bleeding front: Beckett ahead of schedule, throws 45 pitches in bullpen (Redsox.com link):

it's like the late 90s all over again.

On a separate note, here's what Matsuzaka has done over the last few starts in ST, in the stats I consider most important for him to work on:



To me, one of the big keys for Matsuzaka is keeping the pitch count down. Even in games where he avoided the "big inning" last year, my recollection is that he was not economical with his pitches. If he can stay in the 13-15 pitch per inning range, I'd be thrilled.

Other than the Red Sox, does anyone disagree with me that the three best teams in the AL are Detroit, New York and Cleveland? How about in that order?

Both the real games from Japan, the Tuesday and the Wednesday, are on ESPN2 live at 6AM, BTW.

Who's chattin'?

I'll be here

Groovy baby.

Dave, if you are talking expectation then I think you have it about right. But reality? The top four teams could finish in any order depending on how their health and luck go. And the odds are pretty good that one of them will disappoint, finishing with fewer than 90 wins.

I would put them in the order:

Cleveland
New York
Detroit

Detroit's pitching has the potential to be absolutely horrid. And not very much likelihood of being above average.

Both the real games from Japan, the Tuesday and the Wednesday, are on ESPN2 live at 6AM, BTW.

Who's chattin'?

I should be, the game is on at 7pm Aussie time!!!

7pm!!!!

Let me know how you all enjoy the early start....wok and I can give you guys tips if you want...

I might be in on the Chatter.

I'll be there, no doubt.

Who's drinkin?

I'll be at work so not me, teddy.

Stop lying to yourself.

Me neither, at least for the Tuesday game, and I have to leave in ~the 6th inning.

Beckett retroactivly DL'd to 3/19, can come off the list on Thursday 4/3, the off day next week. He's a stud who dominates postseason ballgames, BTW. Part of his makeup.